Topic:"Capacity Costs" in M12247

Planning Environment Updates Components of the CER – Pooling and Banking Roadmap Item 5 - Pooling is the provision within the CER that allows for units designated in the pool to combine their allowable emissions - o The pool size is establ...

AI summary The Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) allow emissions pooling, enabling units to combine allowable emissions and transfer compliance credits until 2050. This facilitates shifting dispatch to lower-cost, lower-emitting units and reduces capital expenditures by optimizing the existing fleet. Unused credits can be banked for up to five years, and converted/fuel-switched units are included in the pool.

Planning Environment Updates Clean Electricity Regulations – Impacts on NSP Long Term Strategy Roadmap Item 5 What does this mean for NSP and the Province? - The CER supports and is in alignment with Path to 2030 and the Integrated Resourc...

AI summary The Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) align with NSP's Path to 2030 and Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), allowing existing resource plans to remain compliant. NSP anticipates incremental system costs to meet CER targets, though no changes to the Path to 2030 plan are required. Flexibilities from NS Power's engagement with ECCC support alignment with Evergreen IRP resource plans.

Thermal investment: The sustaining capital profiles for the thermal units have been updated based on the Evergreen IRP utilization factor approach and the 2030 coal phase out requirements. To maintain resource adequacy while minimizing cap...

AI summary Thermal unit capital profiles were updated using the Evergreen IRP approach and 2030 coal phase-out requirements. Operating restrictions at Trenton 5 limit hours to maintain resource adequacy while minimizing capital investment.

CT investment: The sustaining capital values for the diesel CTs has decreased as compared to the 2020 IRP assumptions for 2023, with 2023 values being lower than 2022 sustaining capital. This confirms the Evergreen modeling approach to ass...

AI summary Sustaining capital values for diesel CTs have decreased compared to 2020 IRP assumptions, with 2023 values lower than 2022. This supports the Evergreen modeling approach assuming ongoing diesel CT fleet operation.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL Request IR-4: Please describe how the IRP model optimizes for renewable curtailment versus building new storage. Please describe what factors the IRP model would consider before selecting energy storage to charge or discha...

AI summary The IRP model optimizes resource selection by evaluating factors like firm capacity, effective load carrying capability (ELCC), renewable energy contribution, ramp rates, and costs (capital, fuel, emissions). It prioritizes economic efficiency, considering curtailment costs of renewables and dispatching BESS to minimize energy supply costs while meeting environmental targets and system reliability.

the Path to 2030 report (2024 update), to that of the 2023 IRP. [Synapse comments, pp. 2 and 6-7] Such concerns were repeated in other submissions, particularly those of the Small Business Advocate: There are recent policy changes, such as...

AI summary The text highlights concerns about NS Power's IRP process, noting that recent policy changes like the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) have not been evaluated in resource planning. NS Power has deferred updating CT price assumptions, citing NSIESO's responsibility for future generation procurement. The Small Business Advocate emphasizes the need for accurate Nova Scotia-specific cost estimates and rate impact analyses for the next IRP.

Request IR-1: - On page 13 regarding pooling allowable emissions, NS Power stated: - The ability to share emissions "room" amongst units allows for: - The shift of dispatch to our lower cost and lower emitting units (e.g. Tufts Cove) by tr...

AI summary NS Power's Request IR-1 discusses emissions sharing among generating units, capital expenditure reductions through efficient fleet use, and impacts on the preferred resource plan. Questions seek clarification on emissions cost data, capital expenditure reductions, and effects on the resource plan.

1 Request IR-1: 2 4 3 RE: Action Plan Item 1b 5 (a) Please explain the potential benefits and limitations associated with Stage 2. Please 6 consider the following examples but do not limit the response to these examples. 7 8 Quantified ava...

AI summary The document requests an explanation of Stage 2's benefits and limitations, including capacity constraints and new projects/loads, and asks about the ideal timeframe and practical constraints for its implementation.

nt (2025) forecast is now aligned with the 2022 forecast for the early years of the 2030s, and the capacity deficits for the 2029/2030 period seen in the 2023 10-Year System Outlook have been reduced. However, as seen in Figure 3 below, ne...

AI summary The 2025 load forecast aligns with 2022 projections, reducing 2029/2030 capacity deficits. However, new CT capacity in 2030 remains unchanged despite updated factors like battery storage, import capacity from New Brunswick, and cost comparisons to alternatives. Increased data center demand risks raising CT costs relative to storage and demand response, challenging the 600 MW CT benchmark as economically optimal.

4.4. Mersey Roadmap Item 2 is Sustaining Capital. In the section of the Action Plan Update pertaining to this item, NSPI provides updates on thermal resources and does not provide any updates on sustaining capital investments at the Mersey...

AI summary Mersey Hydro System provides 35 MW firm capacity and 220 GWh/year of renewable energy. NSPI notes that the next IRP should evaluate alternatives like wind and battery storage for cost-effectiveness, referencing the 2025 ACE Plan for sustaining capital details. Historical IRP modeling favored New Brunswick imports over local capacity in 2020.

5.RECOMMENDATIONS Synapse remains concerned that NSPI has stated in various documents that it expects to have 600 MW of CT capacity by 2030 but has not shown this as an outcome of the IRP or the IRP updates. Enough has changed since NSPI c...

AI summary Synapse expresses concern that NSPI's claim of 600 MW CT capacity by 2030 lacks IRP alignment. Recommendations emphasize updating the Evergreen IRP with new data, evaluating resource options, and carefully assessing CT capacity economics. Scenarios must consider Mersey rehabilitation costs and regional coordination with New Brunswick Power.

NS Power should expedite completion of supporting analysis for the next IRP There are multiple key IRP assumptions that will need to be updated prior to the next IRP, and NS Power should use its expertise to support the development of the...

AI summary The document urges NS Power to expedite updates to CT price assumptions and complete the ELCC study for the next IRP. NS Power has delayed updating CT cost estimates, citing NSIESO's procurement role, but the document argues NS Power is best positioned to provide accurate Nova Scotia-specific data. The ELCC study's scope was finalized in July 2025, but no consultant has been engaged yet.

3.0 SYNAPSE SUBMISSION Synapse provided four recommendations as follows: 1. After establishment of the IESO, we recommend a rapid ramp-up of the capability to conduct a new Evergreen IRP… The previous IRP modeling efforts associated with t...

AI summary Synapse recommends updating the Evergreen IRP by late 2026/early 2027 with new assumptions, including fast-acting generation and battery storage, while comparing scenarios with and without Mersey rehabilitation costs. This aims to ensure accurate resource planning and cost analysis for Nova Scotia's energy needs.

the Path to 2030 report (2024 update), to that of the 2023 IRP. [Synapse comments, pp. 2 and 6-7] Such concerns were repeated in other submissions, particularly those of the Small Business Advocate: There are recent policy changes, such as...

AI summary The document highlights concerns from the Small Business Advocate and Synapse about NS Power's failure to evaluate recent policy changes like the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) in its IRP planning. NS Power has deferred updating CT price assumptions to NSIESO, despite its current role in providing accurate cost estimates for the next IRP. The Small Business Advocate emphasizes the need for NS Power to support NSIESO's resource planning with updated data.