Topic:"Capacity Market Participation" in M11307

MODELING APPROACH Capacity expansion and production cost optimization modeling developed least-cost portfolios for each scenario. The scenarios are compliant with current legislation, including the 2030 environmental policy targets of coal...

AI summary The modeling approach outlines least-cost portfolios for scenarios compliant with 2030 environmental targets (coal phase-out, 80% renewable electricity) and net-zero timelines (2035, 2050). It evaluates resource strategies (with/without Atlantic Loop), electrification pace, and sensitivities, producing results like NPVRR, emissions, reserve margins, and generation profiles.

Coal Phase Out - Coal generation is phased out by 2030. As new resources are added to the system, coal unit output reduces. Coal units are retained for firm capacity as late as the model allows with retirements and/or fuel switching occurr...

AI summary Nova Scotia plans to phase out coal by 2030, retaining coal units for firm capacity until retirements or fuel switching. Lingan units operate on heavy fuel oil (HFO) for reliability and low cost, functioning as capacity assets. Coal-to-gas (C2G) conversion at Point Tupper is economically viable in most scenarios.

Fast Acting Generation • All scenarios add new fast acting generation resources in the range of generally 300MW to 900MW by 2030. Installed capacity is influenced by the range in assumptions of firm peak load growth across scenarios. - Mos...

AI summary The text outlines the addition of 300-900MW of fast-acting generation by 2030, with No Atlantic Loop scenarios requiring 450MW more than With Atlantic Loop scenarios. These resources operate flexibly with low capacity factors to integrate variable renewables and meet peak demand.

GENERATION MIX The evergreen IRP modeling results demonstrate that annual generation profiles are increasingly decarbonized through the planning horizon in line with environmental policy changes in 2030 and 2035 (please refer toFigure 4)....

AI summary The document discusses the decarbonization of Nova Scotia's generation mix through 2030 and 2035, emphasizing wind energy's role, curtailment rates (10–45%), and emission reductions. Gas resources are used in peaking capacity, with lower emissions in all scenarios compared to 2005 levels.

Item 3c: Fast Acting Generating Capacity Initiate development of new fast-acting generating capacity resourcesto address growing demand, balance variable renewable generation, and maintain the reliability of the Nova Scotia system. Scope w...

AI summary The initiative aims to develop 300MW of fast-acting generating capacity by 2027 and an additional 300-600MW by 2030 to meet growing demand, balance variable renewable energy, and ensure system reliability. Fuel flexibility, including hydrogen, is emphasized, with existing combustion turbines sustained through the planning horizon.

Item 3g: Synchronous Condensers Complete generator site-specific system impact studies for new variable renewable generation to assess the need for synchronous condenser support. Progress the development of 100 - 200MVA of synchronous cond...

AI summary The document outlines the need to conduct site-specific system impact studies for new variable renewable generation and to develop 100-200MVA of synchronous condensers by 2030 to ensure grid reliability and stability as renewable energy penetration increases.

Introduction These comments address Nova Scotia Power's August 2023 updated Action Plan and Roadmap items from its 2023 Evergreen Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). NSPI's modeling exercise in the Evergreen IRP update reflects critical input...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power's updated 2023 Evergreen IRP reflects policy changes including 80% renewable energy by 2030, coal phase-out by 2030, and increased wind power procurement. The analysis considers hydrogen as a potential fuel, excludes near-term interprovincial energy imports, and retains 2020 capacity contribution estimates for clean resources. Synapse supports the IRP's methods but notes reservations.

Overall PLEXOS Modeling, NPVRR and Ranking Implications Attached to these comments are two tables, from NSPI's results posted in Excel format. Table 1 contains the modeling results for NSPI's twenty-four (24) scenario and sensitivity runs....

AI summary The document attaches two tables from NSPI's modeling results, including 24 scenarios and a Synapse-developed ranking based on net present value of revenue requirements (NPVRR). Load level variations across scenarios necessitate cautious interpretation of NPVRR comparisons. Additional tables detail capacity additions by scenario and year.

NSPI Input Assumptions for Wind and Solar ELCC

AI summary The document outlines Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s (NSPI) input assumptions related to the Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC) of wind and solar energy resources. The content includes a figure (Figure 1) but lacks detailed textual analysis or arguments.

New CTs and Reciprocating Plans Nameplate Capacity by Scenario Scenario 2025 2027 2029 2030 2033 2035 2050 CE1-E1-R1 0 0 150 150 150 300 1,550 CE1-E1-R1 AAT 0 150 450 600 750 750 1,650 CE1-E1-R1 BD 0 170 320 320 320 320 1,670 CE1-E1-R1 BPD...

AI summary The document presents capacity data for various scenarios related to new combined cycle (CT) and reciprocating engine capacity additions. Synapse acknowledges the value of converting coal units for low-cost capacity but raises concerns about the robustness of the capacity value attributed to new battery energy storage resources. It recommends further study and an updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) analysis before committing to significant CT additions.

ble resource added in both the initial insights and draft modeling results phases of the Evergreen IRP, with very little grid-connected solar seen in any resource plans at those stages of the process. NS Power notes that in the Final Model...

AI summary NS Power highlights the inclusion of 200MW grid-connected solar in the Evergreen IRP's Final Modeling Results, influenced by federal tax credits. Concerns about over-crediting diversity benefits from solar-storage pairing are noted. Synapse, E1, and NRR recommend expanding the Capacity Study to evaluate higher-order interactive effects like solar + wind + battery + demand response, which NS Power acknowledges.

batery energy storage, PHP is concerned with further study that could poten�ally delay firm inprovince resources which will be required to maintain the reliability of the system, especially with the addi�on of significantly greater amounts...

AI summary The document discusses concerns about delaying the development of firm in-province resources due to potential further studies, particularly in the context of integrating non-dispatchable renewables. It emphasizes the need for expeditious action to maintain system reliability, referencing the Evergreen IRP Update's requirement for 300 MW of new fast-acting generation by 2027. The document also addresses the planning reserve margin, noting the shift from a 20% ICAP to a 9% UCAP planning reserve margin after stakeholder feedback and the 2019 Planning Reserve Margin and Capacity Value Study.

that correctly iden�fying the need for capacity is paramount for all subsequent IRP runs. The study should also ask whether energy to meet those peak demands should be stored in a batery, a tank, a lake or in a regionally linked, diversifi...

AI summary The text discusses the importance of correctly identifying capacity needs for Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) runs and the need for clear standards in making trade-offs among different resource options. It also highlights the changing behavior of residential and small commercial customers regarding heat pumps and backup fuels, and the need for NS Power to respond to challenges from decarbonization policies and long-term financial conditions.

batery energy storage, PHP is concerned with further study that could poten�ally delay firm inprovince resources which will be required to maintain the reliability of the system, especially with the addi�on of significantly greater amounts...

AI summary PHP is concerned about potential delays in building firm in-province resources due to further study on battery energy storage, which could affect system reliability with increased non-dispatchable renewables. The Evergreen IRP Update requires 300 MW of new fast-acting generation by 2027. Future modeling refinement will not eliminate the need for new firm capacity to maintain reliability.

- The Consumer Advocate and Small Business Advocate noted the need to assess future hydrogen development (load, generation) in Nova Scotia and the need for tariff development to support hydrogen production. NS Power noted that hydrogen pro...

AI summary The Consumer Advocate and Small Business Advocate emphasized the need to assess hydrogen development and tariff design in Nova Scotia. NS Power stated hydrogen-related work occurs outside the Evergreen IRP process but ties back to it via Roadmap items. Synapse, E1, and NRR recommended studying ELCC diversity benefits of combining battery, wind, solar, and demand response resources. NS Power expressed concerns about potential double-counting of diversity credits when adding solar to storage-wind combinations.

Planning Reserve Margin Discussion of reserve capacity was largely absent this IRP iteration, though it was present in previous exercises. NSP has modeled a continued use of 20% planning reserve margin, but NRR does not accept this without...

AI summary The discussion on Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) highlights NSP's proposal of a 20% PRM, which NRR rejects without intervenor consensus and Board scrutiny. Adjusting PRM to 16% could avoid constructing a combustion turbine, emphasizing the need for thorough discussion on reserve margin values.

dditional study will not necessarily suggest the ability for significant enough long-duration battery storage capability to substantially limit the immediate need for new firm, fast-acting generation. While battery storage does assist with...

AI summary The text discusses limitations of battery storage in replacing fast-acting generation due to duration constraints, the need for synchronous condensers to support wind integration, and the cost implications of additional condensers. NSPI and PHP emphasize the importance of system-wide studies and holistic evaluations for renewable integration and grid reliability.

Comments on Nova Scotia Power Updated Action Plan and Roadmap (August 2023), pg. 5 of 11 4 Exhibit N-1, NSUARB M11307, NSPI 2023 Evergreen IRP Updated Action Plan and Roadmap, pg. 8 of 23 - 4.2. the enablement of contracting and procuremen...

AI summary ESC comments on NSPI's 2023 Evergreen IRP plan, highlighting amendments to the Electricity Act (Bill 264) enabling third-party energy storage procurement to accelerate battery adoption and meet renewable targets. Key policy drivers include minimizing outages, enhancing energy security, and addressing renewable curtailment (3.4 TWh/year by 2035). Risks from the Atlantic Loop and natural gas price volatility are also noted, with scenarios showing increased battery storage in 'No Atlantic Loop' cases.

n of our coal fired generating units to heavy fuel oil (HFO). Peter Gregg asked that I respond to you as I, along with my team, manage the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) that oversees this transition. The potential fuel conversion to HFO i...

AI summary NS Power discusses transitioning coal-fired units to HFO and natural gas as part of its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to meet 2030 decarbonization targets. The IRP emphasizes the need for diverse energy solutions, including renewables, storage, and firm generation to ensure grid reliability and support 80% renewable integration.

- The Consumer Advocate and Small Business Advocate noted the need to assess future hydrogen development (load, generation) in Nova Scotia and the need for tariff development to support hydrogen production. NS Power noted that hydrogen pro...

AI summary The Consumer Advocate and Small Business Advocate emphasized the need to assess hydrogen development and tariff requirements in Nova Scotia. NS Power clarified that hydrogen-related initiatives are outside the Evergreen IRP process but may tie back through roadmap items. Synapse, E1, and NRR recommended studying the ELCC diversity benefits of combining battery, wind, solar, and demand response resources, noting that wind + storage credits were included in the 2020 IRP, while solar integration increased due to federal tax credits. NS Power expressed concerns about potential 'double counting' of diversity credits.

, on December 22, 2023, NS Power filed its "Path to 2030" plan, which was subsequently made part of the 2024 ACE Plan proceeding, describing how the Utility will meet its 2030 decarbonization targets. Finally, on April 5, 2024, the Legisla...

AI summary NS Power's 'Path to 2030' plan is part of the 2024 ACE Plan proceeding. The Energy Reform (2024) Act establishes a new IESO to take over integrated resource planning. The Board accepts the Evergreen IRP Update but requires further analysis on battery energy storage ELCC and renewable resource interactions. Urgency for 2030 decarbonization targets and engagement with government agencies are emphasized.

Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) Study Scope Memo February 6, 2025 In its Decision letter of May 23, 2024, regarding NS Power's 2023 Evergreen IRP Update (Matter M11307), the Board highlighted certain Synapse recommendations and s...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board directed NS Power to update its ELCC study to assess interactive effects of wind, solar, battery storage, and demand response. NS Power supports the update, plans to develop a scope of work by year-end, and proposes three study topics: resource interaction analysis, demand response ELCC recalibration, and seasonal ELCC assessment. The Board emphasized refining diversity benefits and aligning with current programs.