Topic:"Cost Considerations" in M11307

C. The Atlantic Loop is a large-scale, interregional megaproject that carries with it potentially unparalleled costs, benefits, and risks In its Final IRP Report issued in late 2020, the Atlantic Loop project was not specifically mentioned...

AI summary The Atlantic Loop project, modeled by NSPI in its IRP, involves transmission lines between New Brunswick and Nova Scotia with potential costs of $1.7 billion. It provides up to 550 MW of firm capacity, relying on ISO New England market price forecasts. The project is central to NSPI's Evergreen Update and IRP Action Plan.

1. No Atlantic Loop as Preferred Plan The lowest cost 26-year NPVRR (including distributed solar PV costs and end effects) base model run under the "current policy and trends" electrification assumptions for Nova Scotia is the No Atlantic...

AI summary The No Atlantic Loop scenario (CE1-E1-R2) is identified as the lowest-cost 26-year NPVRR model under current electrification assumptions, costing $130 million less than the Atlantic Loop base model. A hybrid peak mitigation variant reduces costs further by $2.33 billion, while a bi-directional flow sensitivity model shows even lower costs but lacks contractual commitments with Quebec. Synapse supports reassessing these scenarios with clearer cost data.

that correctly iden�fying the need for capacity is paramount for all subsequent IRP runs. The study should also ask whether energy to meet those peak demands should be stored in a batery, a tank, a lake or in a regionally linked, diversifi...

AI summary The text discusses the importance of identifying capacity needs for Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) runs and the need to evaluate energy storage options for meeting peak demands. It also highlights the potential shift in customer behavior regarding heat pumps and the impact of decarbonization policies on NS Power. The text also mentions tracking the installed costs of wind, solar, and energy storage.

Acknowledgements This report was sponsored by Nova Scotia Power, who provided input and certain assumptions for the analysis. The specific assumptions provided by the utility, including certain cost data, are noted within the report body....

AI summary The report was sponsored by Nova Scotia Power, which provided cost data and assumptions. Modeling occurred in 2021-2022 using available data. The conclusions are independent of the sponsor's input.

Figure ES-2. Net present value of costs and benefits of adopting light-duty vehicle in 2022, assuming managed charging with load management using vehicle-grid integration Notes: The benefit estimates vary across scenarios based on rates, f...

AI summary The analysis shows that adopting light-duty vehicles with managed charging yields net benefits, supported by provincial and federal rebates. However, building electrification requires policy to encourage high-performing equipment adoption, minimizing peak impacts and protecting ratepayers.

4.3.1 Light-duty Vehicle BCA Results Electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs) have greater lifetime benefits than costs from the perspectives of drivers, utility rate payers, and the province. The net present value (NPV) of lifetime costs and b...

AI summary Electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs) offer greater lifetime benefits than costs from the perspectives of drivers, utility rate payers, and the province. While driver costs include upfront vehicle costs and charging expenses, savings from avoided gasoline costs and rebates offset these. Utility ratepayer benefits exceed costs, suggesting that average utility rates could decrease with increased EV adoption.

2022 2030 Charging Scenario PCT RIM SCT PCT RIM SCT Unmanaged 1.4 1.8 1.5 2.5 1.7 2.7 Managed w/ TOU and VGI 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.5 1.7 2.7 All cost tests show positive results in both 2022 and 2030 for all charge management scenarios. Improvemen...

AI summary The data shows positive cost test results for all EV charging scenarios in both 2022 and 2030. The improvement over time is attributed to declining incremental upfront costs, making EV adoption more economical. Electricity supply costs to serve charging loads are lower than the utility revenues collected from them, benefiting ratepayers.

span> Figure 4-7. NPV cost-benefit analysis for a current performance ducted ASHP adopted in 2022 in a single-family home currently using electric resistance 61 The adoption of an all-electric current performance heat pump amongst customer...

AI summary The text discusses the cost-effectiveness of adopting heat pumps in single-family homes in Nova Scotia. It highlights that switching from fuel oil to electric heating provides net benefits to both ratepayers and the province, while higher-performance heat pumps, though more expensive upfront, remain cost-effective but reduce some societal benefits.

The economics of building electrification from the customer perspective can be more uncertain than a similar transportation analysis, dependent on current and uncertain future fuel prices and electricity rates, building type and size, coun...

AI summary The analysis compares building electrification economics to transportation, highlighting uncertainties due to fuel prices and technology. Current and best-in-class cold-climate heat pumps show net benefits, while hybrid systems reduce fossil use and peak impacts. However, large-scale adoption of standard heat pumps may increase system peaks, requiring careful consideration of cost trends and rate design.

10.2.1 Residential Water Heating Electrification of water heating presents net economic benefits to participants, ratepayers, and Nova Scotia. [Figure 10-3](#page-120-0) shows the results of the cost-benefit test for the adoption of a heat...

AI summary The electrification of residential water heating, specifically through heat pump water heaters (HPWH), is shown to provide significant net economic benefits to customers, ratepayers, and society in Nova Scotia. The analysis highlights that the avoided fuel costs outweigh the incremental costs of HPWH adoption, leading to lower rates and societal benefits exceeding $9,000.

Cost Benefit Analysis - E3 and NS Power developed a cost benefit analysis tool to enable the analysis of building and transportationelectrificationsolutions and the impactsof various programs. - The metrics produced as part of the cost ben...

AI summary E3 and NS Power developed a cost-benefit analysis tool to evaluate building and transportation electrification solutions. Metrics include participant cost, ratepayer impact, and societal cost tests. The analysis considers EV purchase costs, tax credits, O&M savings, fuel savings, and emission reductions for transportation, while buildings focus on appliance costs, electricity bills, and avoided fuel costs.

End Effects NSP concludes that: "the Atlantic Loop shows lower system costs and lower overall emissions than the without Atlantic Loop scenarios", however, this conclusion is apparently based on the 25 year NPV with end effects. Of note in...

AI summary NSP argues the Atlantic Loop reduces system costs and emissions over 25 years with end effects, but NRR emphasizes prioritizing near-term decisions due to rapid tech/fuel price changes and the value of future flexibility. NSP's conclusion relies on long-term NPV calculations, while NRR stresses short-to-medium term relevance.

Avoided Cost NRR is pleased to see that NSP has accepted E1's desire for refinement of avoided costs. 2030 is rapidly approaching and E1's programming remains a critical part of meeting targets. NRR hopes that NSP and E1 can collaborativel...

AI summary NRR supports NSP's agreement to refine avoided costs for E1's programs, emphasizing urgency due to the 2030 deadline and collaboration between NSP and E1. NRR rejects scenarios involving the Loop as unreasonable for this exercise.

Conclusion The use of out-dated cost assumptions, an unmanageable in-service date, and core questions around the product available from Quebec make model runs using the Loop unsuitable for ongoing comparison. The UARB may wish to consider,...

AI summary The Loop model is deemed unsuitable for ongoing comparison due to outdated cost assumptions and Quebec product issues. The UARB is advised to consider alternative modeling approaches. NRR agrees with some IRP findings but recommends continuing the avoided costs exercise with non-Loop scenarios to avoid inappropriate capacity numbers.

James MacDuff Direct +1 (902) 444 8619 [email protected] 1969 Upper Water Street Suite 1300 McInnes Cooper Tower - Purdy's Wharf Halifax NS Canada B3J 2V1 Tel +1 (902) 425 6500 Fax +1 (902) 425 6350 Our File: 179164 September...

AI summary Port Hawkesbury Paper LP (PHP) supports Synapse and Bates White's comments on Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s 2023 Evergreen Integrated Resources Plan, emphasizing the need for a flexible approach to regional integration, mitigation of renewable energy integration costs, further study of hybrid peak mitigation scenarios, and addressing implications of Federal Clean Energy Regulations.

Atlantic Loop Eastward notes and shares the concerns expressed by Synapse and Bates White regarding the assumptions underpinning the Atlantic Loop bi-directional flow sensitivity run. Synapse notes at page 2 of its report that "the underly...

AI summary Synapse and Bates White question the assumptions behind the Atlantic Loop's bi-directional flow sensitivity analysis, citing lack of contractual commitments with Quebec and advocating for a flexible approach. Eastward supports Bates White's emphasis on near-term value over long-term Atlantic Loop viability.

, 2023, Page 6. M11307, Bates White Economic Consulting's Comments on Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s Evergreen IRP Action Plan & Roadmap Update, Filed September 8, 2023, Page 7. M11307, Bates White Economic Consulting's Comments on Nova Scotia P...

AI summary E1 recommends considering reduced Plan Flexibility and risk in the Bi-Directional Atlantic Loop scenario. NS Power highlights Hybrid Peak scenarios' cost savings over base load scenarios but notes missing incentive costs. E1 argues these savings stem from excluded Hybrid Peak Mitigation costs and identifies unaccounted customer expenses (e.g., heating system maintenance, fuel costs) in IRP evaluations.

4.1 High Distributed Energy Resources (HDER) Scenario - E1 noted that the HDER scenarios, which include significant investment in rooftop solar PV systems, - showed favorable utility NPVRR results. Notably, CE1-E1-R2 HDER stood out with th...

AI summary E1 highlights favorable utility NPVRR results in HDER scenarios, emphasizing customer-sited solar PV's value. NS Power's $3/W solar cost assumption is challenged by E1's lower $2.5/W experience. E1 argues against dismissing HDER scenarios based solely on customer costs, citing unaccounted electrification and hybrid mitigation costs, and recommends further analysis of DERs' full costs/benefits.

- 8. It is recommended that DSM activities not tested in the 2022 Evergreen IRP be considered separate and distinct, when compared with the results of the 2022 IRP associated with DSM in particular. - 9. E1 recommends a thorough and transp...

AI summary E1 recommends treating untested DSM activities in the 2022 IRP separately, emphasizes stakeholder engagement for avoided cost analysis, and requests NS Power to address DERs, electrification, demand response valuation, and emission intensity reduction strategies. E1 also advocates for studying DERs' full costs/benefits and aligning avoided cost methodologies with system build-out projections.