Topic:"Demand Side Management" in M11764

1 LIST OF FIGURES 2 3 Figure 1: Net System Requirement with Future DSM Program Effects (actuals not weather adjusted) ...... 7 4 Figure 2: Coincident Peak Demand and Future DSM Program Effects .................................................

AI summary The document lists figures analyzing energy system planning, including demand-side management (DSM) impacts, generating capacity forecasts, energy mix trends, utilization factors, capital investments, transmission queues, and greenhouse gas emissions. Key themes involve capacity planning, DSM program effects, and emissions compliance.

ova Scotia Wholesale and Renewable to Retail Electricity Market rule 12 requirement 3.4.2 1, NSPSO System Planning, this report provides the 10-Year System Outlook on 0F 13 behalf of the Nova Scotia Power System Operator (NSPSO) for 2024....

AI summary The Nova Scotia Power System Operator (NSPSO) provides a 10-Year System Outlook for 2024, detailing system capacity and resource adequacy. The report includes load forecasts, DSM updates, and generation planning for NS Power and third-party facilities, aligned with Market Rule 3.4.2 requirements.

ed by Market Participants or Connection Applicants other than NS Power; and (f) requirements for additional DSM programs and / or generating capability (for energy or ancillary services).” DATE FILED: June 27, 2024 Page 5 of 67 2024 10-Yea...

AI summary The document outlines requirements for additional demand-side management (DSM) programs and generating capability, as part of the 2024 10-Year System Outlook. It includes considerations for market participants and connection applicants other than NS Power.

1 2.0 LOAD FORECAST 2 3 The NS Power load forecast provides an outlook on the energy and peak demand requirements of 4 customers in the province. The load forecast forms the basis for fuel and power-purchase supply 5 planning, investment p...

AI summary NS Power's 2024 load forecast projects a 0.2% annual increase in net system requirements, driven by near-term customer growth and EV adoption, offset by RTR market reductions and long-term DSM/solar impacts. The forecast uses SAE models and incorporates factors like federal EV targets and renewable energy integration.

sed behind-the-meter solar installations. The net result of these updates is a forecast 23 average annual net system requirement increase of 0.2 percent. 24 25 Figure 1: Net System Requirement with Future DSM Program Effects (actuals not w...

AI summary The text discusses the impact of behind-the-meter solar installations on Nova Scotia's net system requirements, forecasting a 0.2% annual increase. It references the Nova Scotia Power 2024 Load Forecast Report (M11689) and includes historical NSR data from 2014–2016, highlighting the role of demand-side management programs in shaping system growth projections.

Year NSR (GWh) Growth (%) 2017 10,873 0.6 2018 11,250 3.5 2019 11,077 -1.5 2020 10,723 -3.2 2021 10,902 1.7 2022 11,134 2.1 2023 11,131 0.0 2024F 11,490 3.2 2025F 11,409 -0.7 2026F 11,306 -0.9 2027F 11,347 0.4 2028F 11,416 0.6 2029F 11,448...

AI summary The document presents NSR (Net System Requirement) data from 2017 to 2034, showing fluctuating growth rates. NS Power forecasts peak demand using energy forecasts, weather models, and historical load factors, noting that customer growth, electrification, and EV adoption increase peaks, while DSM/DR activities reduce them. The 2022 Evergreen IRP's ELCC-adjusted DR contributions are included in firm peak calculations.

titutional (BNI) Curtailment, are included in the firm peak. 14 Customer growth, electrification of heating and increased EV sales increase the peak, while DSM 15 and DR activities reduce the peak. Compared to 2023, the near-term peak fore...

AI summary The near-term peak demand forecast is higher due to increased heating intensity from work-from-home activity and equipment usage, offset partially by DSM/DR initiatives. Customer growth, electrification of heating, and EV sales contribute to rising peak demand, while BNI curtailment and DSM/DR activities mitigate it.

1 (higher temperature setpoints, more heating load served by the heat pumps), while in the long term 2 the peak forecast is reduced due to lower EV sales and adoption of hybrid heating scenario in 3 alignment with Nova Scotia’s Clean Power...

AI summary The document projects an average annual 1.4% increase in system peak demand due to factors like higher temperature setpoints and hybrid heating adoption, despite long-term reductions from lower EV sales. This aligns with Nova Scotia’s Clean Power Plan and NS Power’s Evergreen IRP, as illustrated in Figure 2 showing DSM program effects on peak demand.

1 Province’s decarbonization goals. Resource additions and retirements out to 2030 are informed by 2 the details in these two documents. 3 4 For the purposes of the 2024 10-Year System Outlook Report, NS Power selected Evergreen IRP 5 scen...

AI summary NS Power is aligning its resource planning with the Province’s Clean Power Plan and The Path to 2030, using the Evergreen IRP scenario CE1-E1-R2 for the 2024 10-Year System Outlook Report. The scenario supports net-zero goals by 2035 and includes monitoring of emerging technologies such as hydrogen-fueled turbines and small modular reactors.

nitor the development of these potential resources and reassess as needed. Figure 22 5 below shows the anticipated DSM and firm capacity changes over the ten-year period 23 starting in 2025. 24 DATE FILED: June 27, 2024 Page 15 of 67 2024...

AI summary The text discusses the monitoring of potential resources and reassessment as needed, referencing Figure 22.5, which shows anticipated DSM and firm capacity changes over a ten-year period starting in 2025.

1 Figure 5: Firm Capacity Changes & DSM New Resources 2025-2034 Net MW DSM Peak reduction 241 Demand Response (Firm contribution) 15 14F 38 Total Demand Side MW Change Projected Over Planning Period 279 Maintenance/Repairs: Hydro derates d...

AI summary The document presents a summary of firm capacity changes and demand-side management (DSM) contributions from 2025 to 2034. It outlines reductions in peak demand through DSM initiatives, additions from new renewable energy sources, and maintenance/repair impacts, including the Wreck Cove LEM project.

Tupper 2 Coal-to-Gas conversion 150 Fast Acting Generation 600 Additions - Coal to HFO Operation (Lingan 1, 3 & 4 Conversions) 459 Retirements: Trenton 5 & 6 -304 Lingan 1, 3 & 4 (Coal Operation), Lingan 2 -607 Point Tupper (Coal Operation...

AI summary The text outlines anticipated changes in firm supply capacity, including coal-to-gas conversions, retirements of coal plants, and additions of new resources. It references demand response contributions, biomass transitions, and additional wind projects beyond current procurement programs.

ling. This needs to be carefully re- 13 examined in conjunction with an updated portfolio ELCC analysis, which considers 14 the interactive effect of all four clean resources (i.e., wind, solar PV, battery energy 15 storage, and demand res...

AI summary The document discusses the need for an updated portfolio ELCC analysis considering the interactive effects of clean resources like wind, solar PV, battery energy storage, and demand response during winter peak periods. The Board supports further study to evaluate the incremental diversity benefits from increased interaction among renewable resources.

2024 10-Year System Outlook Report (NSUARB M11764) NSPI Responses to CA Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-2: 2 3 Re: Exh. N-1, p. 9 4 5 (a) Please provide the amount of peak forecast reduction associated with “adoption of...

AI summary NSPI responds to information requests (IR-2) regarding the 2024 10-Year System Outlook Report, addressing peak forecast reductions from hybrid heating scenarios, IRP Action Plan Item 4b, partnership studies, action plans, and risk mitigation strategies. The response refers to NSUARB IR-18 for part (a) details.

1 (b) As part of its 2020 IRP Action Plan, NS Power completed and published The Economics 2 of Electrification in Nova Scotia. 1 This report identified the potential for a Hybrid Peak 3 scenario in Nova Scotia and developed an estimate of...

AI summary NS Power's 2020 IRP Action Plan included a Hybrid Peak scenario, modeled in the 2023 Evergreen IRP for potential cost savings. The program was incorporated into the Province's Clean Power Plan and NS Power's 2024 ACE Plan, with alignment on accountability. Net Zero Atlantic will conduct a Hybrid Peak study in 2024 for the Department of Natural Resources and Renewables.

2024 10-Year System Outlook Report (NSUARB M11764) NSPI Responses to CA Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 (d) Achieving Hybrid Peak scenario peak reductions are contingent on the completion of work 2 referenced in part (b). The compl...

AI summary NSPI states that achieving Hybrid Peak scenario reductions depends on completing a Hybrid Peak study. Current peak reductions rely on DR activities (including DLC, TVP, BNI curtailment), while customer growth and electrification increase peak demand. NS Power's resource plan includes DSM/DR programs and maintains a Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) to buffer uncertainties.

1 (b) As part of its 2020 IRP Action Plan, NS Power completed and published 2 The Economics of Electrification in Nova Scotia. This report identified the 3 potential for a Hybrid Peak scenario in Nova Scotia and developed an 4 estimate of...

AI summary NS Power's 2020 IRP Action Plan included a report on electrification, identifying the Hybrid Peak scenario's potential for peak and energy savings. The scenario was modeled in the 2023 Evergreen IRP, showing cost savings. The Province incorporated it into the Clean Power Plan, with NS Power aligning in the 2024 ACE Plan. Net Zero Atlantic plans a study on Hybrid Peak as part of the Load Management initiative.

January 16, 2025 [email protected] Mark Peachey Manager, Regulatory System Planning & Innovation Nova Scotia Power Inc. 1223 Lower Water Street Halifax, NS B3J 3S8 Dear Mr. Peachey: M11764 – Nova Scotia Power Inc. – 2024 10-Year Syst...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) submitted its 2024 10-Year System Outlook Report, addressing transmission planning, demand-side management (DSM) programs, generation planning, and compliance with environmental and renewable energy requirements. The report is based on load forecasts, DSM forecasts, and regulatory compliance needs. The Board notes the report is informational, not a regulatory decision.

Document: 305605 Date Filed: Aug. 27, 2024 NSUARB (NS Power) Page 5 of 6 1 Please provide the latest update regarding this project. 2 3 Request IR-15: 4 On page 59, NS Power stated that in collaboration with Manitoba Hydro International (M...

AI summary The document contains regulatory requests to NS Power regarding project updates, integration of inverter-based resources (IBR), expansion of the 10-Year System Outlook, and planning reserve criteria. Requests include filing a report on IBR integration, assessing distribution system inclusion in the System Outlook, and clarifying confidence in meeting winter peak demand and reserve margin targets.

onditions. 25 b) Does NS Power anticipate requiring load interruptions? If so, to what extent? 26 c) Please elaborate on the statement that “NS Power will position its thermal fleet for high 27 reliability operation in Winter 2024/2025”. H...

AI summary The document contains regulatory questions directed at NS Power regarding load interruption expectations, winter 2024/2025 thermal fleet reliability strategies, and the impact of hybrid heating adoption on peak demand reductions under the Clean Power Plan and Evergreen IRP. Specific requests include quantifying fuel-source contributions to peak reduction.

M11764 – SBA IRs – August 28, 2024 Page 2 of 3 1 Request IR-05 2 Refer to the Report Section 7.7 - Hydrogen Load Impact Studies, beginning at page 58 of 67, where 3 it states that: 4 NSPI is conducting Load Impact Studies and System Impact...

AI summary The NS SBA requests clarifications from NSPI regarding assumptions in hydrogen load impact studies, data from potential customers, system needs for 1,225 MW peak load, project status, and analyses on system reliability and renewable policy compliance. It also queries NSPI's EMT studies for wind integration and inverter-based resource limits.

Date Filed: August 28, 2024 CA (NS Power) Page 2 of 4 1 c) Please provide details on participation in any studies in partnership with other 2 organizations, including any available timelines, study scopes, contractors, or other 3 pertinent...

AI summary The document contains regulatory questions directed at NS Power regarding studies with partners, action plans for peak reduction, risk mitigation for customer behavior, and details on the Reliability Tie project's construction timelines, equipment procurement, and risk management. Focus areas include infrastructure planning, demand-side management, and regulatory compliance.

January 16, 2025 [email protected] Mark Peachey Manager, Regulatory System Planning & Innovation Nova Scotia Power Inc. 1223 Lower Water Street Halifax, NS B3J 3S8 Dear Mr. Peachey: M11764 – Nova Scotia Power Inc. – 2024 10-Year Syst...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power Inc. submitted its 2024 10-Year System Outlook Report, required under wholesale electricity market rules. The report addresses transmission planning, DSM programs, generation planning, and compliance requirements. The Board notes the report is informational, based on best available data at the time of filing.

electricity resources for the Province for the short, medium and long terms; and • conduct independent planning for energy resources, demand-side management and transmission. As the Board noted in its decision letter about the Evergreen IR...

AI summary The Board emphasizes NS Power's responsibility to continue energy resource planning, demand-side management, and transmission activities until the NSIESO assumes these roles. It highlights the urgency of meeting 2030 targets with significant capital projects and the need for NS Power to engage with government agencies on policy developments.