Topic:"Electricity Generation" in M08059

Final Report Nova Scotia Power Inc. Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization Economic Analysis of Retention of Fossil‐Fueled Thermal Fleet To and Beyond 2030 – M08059 Prepared for Board Counsel Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board M...

AI summary This report analyzes the economic implications of retaining Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s fossil-fueled thermal generation fleet through 2030 and beyond. Prepared for the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board, it evaluates the utilization and optimization of thermal generation resources.

nomics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 i Final Report

AI summary The document references a final report titled 'NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization' under matter M08059, involving Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI). The report likely addresses strategies for optimizing thermal generation assets within NSPI's operations.

Plant Utilization – Capacity Factors – Coal and Tufts Cove Units ............................................ 41 Energy by Fuel Type..............................................................................................................

AI summary The document discusses plant utilization, capacity factors for coal and Tufts Cove units, energy by fuel type, emissions, and sensitivities (e.g., battery costs, gas prices). It also outlines updates since a technical conference, demand-side options, NB transmission, and additional wind resources in the discussion and recommendations section.

.......................................................... 56 4.2. Recommendations........................................................................................................... 56 5. APPENDICES ...................................

AI summary The Generation Optimization and Utilization study assesses the cost-effectiveness of retaining Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s thermal (steam) fleet through and beyond 2030, focusing on ratepayer impacts and operational optimization.

ze the format of the data to facilitate analysis, and, second, to build a revenue requirement calculation in order to compare the overall net present values of the various scenarios and sensitivities. As a first step, Synapse takes the raw...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics processes Plexos modeling outputs into Excel for revenue requirement calculations and NPV comparisons. The analysis highlights Plexos' inability to model Tufts Cove unit retirements due to software limitations, recommending system constraint evaluations prior to the next IRP process.

stimates for CC and CT technologies;15 and to examine the build, retirement, and dispatch response when Plexos steam and transmission constraint parameters are relaxed.16 Table 1. Modeling Scenarios

AI summary The text discusses analyzing carbon capture (CC) and carbon transport (CT) technologies using Plexos modeling software, focusing on build, retirement, and dispatch responses when steam and transmission constraints are relaxed. It references Table 1 outlining modeling scenarios.

s, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 11 Final Report Table 2. Modeling Sensitivities

AI summary The document outlines NSPI's thermal generation utilization and optimization, referencing a final report with a table on modeling sensitivities, part of regulatory proceeding M08059. It focuses on energy generation strategies and their financial implications.

requirements to allow for the inclusion of more wind energy on the system. Since this increase in interconnection capacity would extend back into New Brunswick considerably (we assumed a total cost 27 First‐year DSM costs for 2017 were est...

AI summary The text discusses the cost-sharing arrangement for interconnection reinforcement to New Brunswick, estimating first-year DSM costs for 2017 and new build costs for various energy resources. It references modeling by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. and the use of Plexos for unit commitment and dispatch costs.

Aggregate Utilization ‐ Scenario 2, Medium DSM 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% Capacity factor 30.0% 20.0% Coal 10.0% TC 1-3 TC 4-6 0.0% Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 42 Final Report Figure 10...

AI summary The text presents capacity factor data for various scenarios involving thermal generation utilization and optimization, including different levels of DSM and wind capacity credits. The charts illustrate the impact of these scenarios on coal and transmission capacity factors.

Appendix 5.1 Terms of Reference Response to Stakeholder Comments on Proposed Terms of Reference Plexos Optimization Analysis / NSPI Thermal Fleet Retention August 1, 2017 Synapse has reviewed comments received in response to the June 29, 2...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics adjusted the Terms of Reference for a Plexos Optimization Analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness of retaining NSPI’s thermal fleet through 2030. Key changes include extended stakeholder input periods, scenario analysis with varied assumptions, and clarification that the study is a planning exercise, not an operational assessment. The analysis will compare thermal fleet retention against alternatives like retirement and renewable integration.

be Considered in Capacity Expansion/Retirement Analysis The following resource options will be made available to PLEXOS in capacity expansion optimization mode. Cost parameters are listed in Table 4. 1. Existing thermal fleet (less Lingan...

AI summary The document outlines resource options for PLEXOS capacity expansion analysis, including existing thermal plants, renewables (wind, solar), battery storage, pumped storage, and import capacities. Baseline resources include CTs, hydro/tidal, and existing NSPI renewables. Cost parameters and capacity factors are specified for each option.

Appendix 5.4 Detailed Scenario Results - Thermal Fleet Unit Utilization: Annual Capacity Factor Tables Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-1 Appendix Table 1: Capacity Factors –...

AI summary Appendix 5.4 presents capacity factor tables for thermal generation units under Scenario 1, prepared by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. as part of the NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization matter M08059. The analysis focuses on annual capacity utilization metrics for thermal fleet units.

Capacity Factors - Thermal Units 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 30% 43% 30% 24% 23% 24% 17% 15% 13% 11% 12% 17% 3% 4% 6% 15% 22% 11% 20% 12% 19%...

AI summary The document presents capacity factors for various thermal units (e.g., Lingan 1, 2, 3, 4; Point Aconi; Trenton) across 2018–2042, showing fluctuating percentages that may reflect generation reliability or planning considerations over time.

CC - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 6% 3% 3% 9% 12% New CT Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-2 Appendix Table 2: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 2, Medium DSM

AI summary The document references Synapse Energy Economics, Inc.'s analysis of NSPI's thermal generation capacity factors under 'Scenario 2, Medium DSM' in Appendix Table 2. It relates to the regulatory proceeding M08059, focusing on thermal fleet utilization and optimization.

Capacity Factors - Thermal Units 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 31% 41% 28% 23% 17% 21% 31% 14% 9% 14% 14% 19% 5% 19% 22% 17% 23% 10% 26% 17% 12%...

AI summary The document presents capacity factors for various thermal units (e.g., Lingan 1, Lingan 2, Point Aconi, Trenton 5/6) across years 2018–2042, showing fluctuating percentages indicating operational changes, retirements, or decommissioning over time.

Capacity Factors - Thermal Units 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 30% 58% 39% 38% 32% 29% 32% 31% 23% 20% 20% 34% 18% 18% 15% 16% 22% 11% 16% 9% 6%...

AI summary The document presents capacity factors for various power generation units (e.g., Lingan 1, Point Aconi, Trenton 5/6) across years 2018–2042, showing percentage availability trends. This data reflects operational reliability and planning considerations for Nova Scotia's energy resources.

Capacity Factors - Thermal Units 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 32% 41% 31% 25% 23% 20% 17% 19% 14% 12% 16% 18% 4% 10% 6% 5% 12% 4% 11% 0% 5% 4%...

AI summary The document presents capacity factors for various thermal units (e.g., Lingan 1, Lingan 2, Point Aconi, Trenton) from 2018 to 2042, indicating projected performance trends over time with varying percentages for each unit and year.

Capacity Factors - Thermal Units 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 40% 43% 31% 23% 23% 25% 20% 12% 14% 26% 27% 29% 18% 19% 18% 16% 20% 15% 22% 22% 1...

AI summary The document presents capacity factors for various thermal units from 2018 to 2042, showing percentage contributions. Some entries are missing data, particularly for later years.

e 3 14 - Tufts 38% 31% 30% 33% 24% 38% 35% 49% 47% 43% 45% 54% 49% 46% 46% 37% 52% 45% 55% 41% 58% 46% 49% 37% 48% Cove 4 15 - Tufts 45% 35% 34% 32% 22% 41% 31% 47% 51% 40% 47% 53% 51% 44% 50% 37% 52% 48% 56% 40% 57% 45% 48% 42% 51% Cove 5...

AI summary The text presents capacity factor data for NSPI's thermal generation fleet from Synapse Energy Economics, Inc., part of a regulatory proceeding (M08059) under Scenario 13 involving NB Transmission and additional wind resources.

Capacity Factors - Thermal Units 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 32% 41% 31% 25% 23% 27% 23% 18% 14% 9% 11% 21% 5% 7% 7% 21% 20% 7% 17% 10% 11% 14...

AI summary The document presents a table of capacity factors for various power generation units (e.g., Lingan 1, Point Aconi, Trenton 5/6) across years 2018–2042, showing percentage values for each unit's capacity over time.

nomics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-8 Appendix Table 8: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 14, Medium DMS, NB Transmission

AI summary The document references Appendix Table 8 analyzing thermal generation capacity factors under Scenario 14, Medium DMS, NB Transmission. It pertains to NSPI's thermal generation utilization and optimization, linked to regulatory matter M08059.

Capacity Factors - Thermal Units 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 40% 40% 28% 23% 26% 26% 23% 21% 23% 29% 31% 30% 28% 25% 20% 20% 24% 12% 22% 11% 1...

AI summary The document presents a table detailing capacity factors for various thermal units (e.g., Lingan 1, Lingan 2, Point Aconi, Trenton) from 2018 to 2042, showing percentages of capacity utilization over time. The data reflects planned or historical operational capacities for these units, likely related to electricity generation planning.

Capacity Factors - Thermal Units 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 34% 41% 30% 23% 21% 37% 44% 32% 28% 29% 29% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 21% 15% 22% 18% 1...

AI summary The table presents capacity factors for various units (e.g., Lingan 1, Lingan 2, Trenton 5/6) from 2018 to 2042, showing significant variability across units and years. For example, Lingan 2 maintains high capacity factors (40–80%), while Trenton 5/6 shows declining factors (down to 3–5% by 2042).

Capacity Factors - Thermal Units 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 40% 43% 31% 23% 23% 31% 36% 36% 27% 29% 33% 30% 27% 21% 19% 23% 23% 13% 24% 12% 1...

AI summary The table presents capacity factors for various thermal units (e.g., Lingan 1, Lingan 2, Point Aconi, Trenton) from 2018 to 2042, showing declining percentages over time, which may indicate aging infrastructure or operational shifts.

MW RICE Fixed and Variable O&M Sustaining capital costs pick up NSPI 2017 Varies 0%/year Costs related cost increases Based on Confidential Landsvirkjun Power/Verkís Report, Wreck Cove Pumped Stor. NSPI 2017 0%/year Dec. 2012. Table 1, pag...

AI summary The document outlines cost analyses for fossil fuel generation, including natural gas, coal, and heavy oil prices, with data from NSPI and Synapse Energy Economics. It references a 25-year capacity expansion model (2018-2042) and specific years for production cost runs.

ilization Study - Modeling Plan and Key Input Assumptions 11 Appendix 5.6 REDACTED Appendix 5.6 Additions – as Used in Plexos Modeling NSPI Updated Gas Price Forecast (11/3/2017) Redacted NSPI Updated Coal Price Forecast (11/3/2017) Redact...

AI summary The text references NSPI's updated gas and coal price forecasts (11/3/2017) used in Plexos modeling for a generation utilization study, with Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. involved and a cross-reference to matter M08059.

Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board Mailing address Office PO Box 1692, Unit “MM 3rd Floor, 1601 Lower Water Street Halifax, Nova Scotia Halifax, Nova Scotia B3J 3P6 B3J 3S3 1 855 442-4448 (toll-free) [email protected] 902 424-4448 t ht...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board directed Nova Scotia Power Inc. to conduct further analysis on underutilized thermal generation plants, optimize sustaining capital, and evaluate storage and wind capacity contributions following a technical conference on generation utilization and optimization.

Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board Mailing address Office PO Box 1692, Unit “MM 3rd Floor, 1601 Lower Water Street Halifax, Nova Scotia Halifax, Nova Scotia B3J 3P6 B3J 3S3 1 855 442-4448 (toll-free) [email protected] 902 424-4448 t ht...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board highlights concerns regarding underutilized thermal generation plants and the need for further analysis on optimizing capital investments, storage options, and wind capacity contributions. Despite uncertainties in future planning, the Board emphasizes the importance of addressing these issues to improve resource optimization.

1 April 28, 2017 VIA EMAIL 28096 Ms. Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor Halifax, NS B3J 3S3 Dear Ms. Friis: Re: M07540 – Nova Scotia Power Inc. 2016 10-Year...

AI summary The Consumer Advocate requests a study on whether Nova Scotia Power Inc. should maintain its thermal coal units, citing incomplete Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) data and advocating Synapse's involvement. The letter highlights concerns over unspent maintenance funds and the potential value of Plexos data for planning.

Multeese Consulting Incorporated 163 Parkerest Drive. Lawrencetown. N.S. B27, 1M1 April 26, 2017 Doreen Friis, Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street Halifax NS B3J 3P6 Dear Ms. Friis:...

AI summary NSPI argues for maintaining its thermal generators until end-of-life, except Lingan 2, which would retire with Newfoundland power availability. Key reasons include meeting 1% annual firm load growth, 20% reserve margin needs, economic efficiency of existing units over replacement, and limited wind firm capacity (17% NRIS). Wind requires load-following capacity from thermal units.

D a ™ Blackburn Law April 27, 2017 VIA EMAIL Ms. Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor Halifax NS B3J 383 Dear Ms. Friis: Re: M07540 — Nova Scotia Power Inc. 2...

AI summary Blackburn Law comments on Nova Scotia Power's 2016 System Outlook Report, arguing that retaining coal plants as peaking units during winter high-demand periods, despite reduced coal burning, still poses environmental risks from coal pile management, dust control, and ash handling. NS Power defends this approach as economically viable, though it plans to retire Lingan 2 post-Maritime Link. The SBA highlights environmental and reliability concerns.

zard, Canadian Electricity Association, International Energy Association, GE reports, NERC, and other publicly available and current data on cost trajectories, price forecasts, and related parameters. Timeline for Analysis The table below...

AI summary The document outlines data sources for cost and price analysis, including NERC and industry reports, and presents a timeline for project milestones dependent on NSPI's delivery of modeling files and responses to inquiries about system constraints. Key milestones include model execution, post-processing, and report drafting.

REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) June 7, 2018 Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor P.O. Box 1692, Unit “M” Halifax, NS B3J 3S3 Re: M08059 – Generat...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (UARB) requests comments from Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) and interested parties on Synapse Energy Economics Inc.'s report analyzing the economic implications of retaining fossil-fueled thermal generation beyond 2030. Submissions are due by June 21, 2018, with Synapse to reply by July 9, 2018.

File No: SM002557-00003 Nancy G. Rubin, Q.C. Direct Dial: 902.420-3337 [email protected] June 20, 2018 Delivered by E-mail Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 3rd Floor 1601 Lower Wat...

AI summary The Industrial Group supports NSPI's position that retaining the coal fleet through 2030 is cost-effective and necessary for firm capacity, citing Synapse's analysis. The report indicates that under specific parameters, the thermal fleet (excluding certain units) should be retained, with modeling showing financial soundness across scenarios.

capital costs incurred a range of 6.5% to 10.4% of total NPVRR costs in our main scenarios. It is critical to continue to assess the pattern of these costs and project future costs. 5. Establish requirements to allow increased levels of wi...

AI summary The text discusses capital costs (6.5–10.4% of NPVRR) and outlines requirements for integrating wind energy into NSPI's system, including transmission upgrades and intertie completion. It emphasizes joint dispatch coordination with Maritime Provinces and analysis of Tufts Cove thermal units for economic retirement modeling.