N-8Electrification Strategy Report
18 passages
1.2 Objectives The objective of this report is to answer the following questions to inform Nova Scotia Power, provincial policymakers, and other stakeholders on the development of electrification programs that help the province meet its de...
AI summary This report aims to inform Nova Scotia Power and provincial policymakers on the development of electrification programs to meet decarbonization goals. It addresses jurisdictional roles of electrification, economic impacts of technologies like electric vehicles and heat pumps, and utility planning recommendations for managing electrification's effects on the electric sector.
3.1 Overview of E3's Electrification Load Shape Modeling This section describes E3's modeling of the potential aggregate load impacts of building and transportation electrification when pursued at the pace and scale required to align with...
AI summary This section outlines E3's modeling of electrification load impacts in buildings and transportation, aligned with Nova Scotia's Net Zero policy. It highlights scenarios varying in energy sales and peak demand, while noting that industrial and non-road transportation electrification is excluded from the analysis.
3.2.1 Overview of E3's EV Load Shaping Tool To calculate electricity bills and supply costs for EV charging, E3 developed a forecast of potential EV charging loads consistent with achieving Nova Scotia's policy goals. Charging loads depend...
AI summary E3 developed an EV Load Shaping Tool to forecast EV charging loads based on Nova Scotia's policy goals. The tool models driving and charging behavior using a bottom-up approach, considering factors like vehicle type, charging access, and driving patterns. It distinguishes between unmanaged, managed, and VGI charging scenarios to calculate electricity bills and supply costs.
3.3.1 Overview of E3's Building Load Shaping Tool E3's RESHAPE model is designed to simulate diversified system-level building electrification load shapes. System diversity is captured in the model through a regionally specific sample of b...
AI summary E3's RESHAPE model is designed to simulate diversified system-level building electrification load shapes, incorporating regional building samples, temperature variability, and heat pump technology mix to capture system diversity.
3.3.2 Key Assumptions The residential building stock in Nova Scotia was characterized using data from Natural Resource Canada (NRCAN), Nova Scotia Power, and the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) Residential Energy Consumption Survey (R...
AI summary This section outlines the key assumptions used to characterize the residential building stock in Nova Scotia, relying on data from multiple sources including Natural Resource Canada, Nova Scotia Power, and the U.S. Energy Information Agency. The RESHAPE model was used to represent the provincial housing stock based on adjusted and scaled data from New England.
Fuel % of Households Annual Heating Demand (kBtu/household) Electric Resistance 20% 44,529 Natural Gas 4% 33,294 Heat Pumps 31% 44,682 Fuel Oil 33% 35,411 Other (including Wood) 12% 90,493 The commercial building stock in Nova Scotia was c...
AI summary The document presents data on household and commercial fuel use in Nova Scotia, including heating demand by fuel type. It also outlines the methodology used by E3 to estimate heating demand, incorporating weather data and building characteristics. The analysis includes different weather scenarios and their impact on building electrification loads.
3.3.3 Building Scenarios In all scenarios modeled, E3 assumes that 100% of sales of heating equipment are heat pumps by 2030 resulting in nearly all residential customers and 96% of commercial customers having heat pumps by 2050. Most scen...
AI summary E3 models various scenarios for heat pump adoption in Nova Scotia by 2030 and 2050, including Current Trends, No Electric Resistance Phaseout, Best-in-Class, and Current Trends Hybrid. These scenarios consider different heat pump technologies, adoption rates, and the impact of demand-side management (DSM) on system performance.
2. The adoption of heat pumps amongst current fuel customers presents electricity supply costs from both the SCT and PCT perspectives, but the adoption of heat pumps amongst current electric resistance customers presents a net benefit. A b...
AI summary The adoption of heat pumps by current fuel customers increases electricity supply costs from both the Societal Cost Test (SCT) and Participant Cost Test (PCT) perspectives, while it benefits current electric resistance customers. The analysis includes incremental appliance costs, electric bills, avoided fuel bills, and emissions, among other factors.
LDV are assumed to drive on average 17,427 km/yr 81 . The 2030 vehicle parameters assumed are show in [Table 6-1](#page-97-2) below: Table 6-1. 2030 vehicle parameters EV type Average Range (km) % of vehicle population BEV 475 77% PHEV 68...
AI summary The document assumes LDVs drive 17,427 km/yr on average and outlines 2030 vehicle parameters, including BEV and PHEV ranges and their share of the vehicle population. EV efficiency is adjusted daily based on historic Nova Scotia temperature data.
6.2 Additional E3 EV Load Shape Tool Results Charging profiles vary by temperature and therefore fluctuate throughout the year. A per vehicle charging profile for an unmanaged LDV is shown i[n Figure 6-1](#page-99-1) below. Figure 6-1. Ann...
AI summary The document discusses the impact of electric vehicles (EVs) on Nova Scotia's electricity load, showing that unmanaged EV charging contributes more to peak load than managed charging. It also forecasts increased load from electrified transportation, including LDVs, transit buses, and parcel trucks, by 2030 and 2040.
7.1 Coefficient of Performance (COP) Assumptions E3 uses manufacturer reported data on the performance of ccASHPs provided by NEEP in its Cold Climate Air Source Heat Pump Product List and Specifications . Data from the NEEP database is us...
AI summary The document discusses the Coefficient of Performance (COP) assumptions used in the Electricity Efficiency and Conservation Act Nova Scotia (E3) based on manufacturer-reported data from NEEP and corroborated by data from several manufacturers, as illustrated in RESHAPE COP curves.
7.3 Shell Improvement E3 modeled building electrification scenarios with "DSM" and "Pre-DSM." In scenarios with DSM, buildings adopting heat pumps also receive a building shell improvement. E3 used the building simulation software EnergyPl...
AI summary E3 modeled building electrification scenarios with 'DSM' and 'Pre-DSM,' where DSM scenarios include building shell improvements. EnergyPlus simulations showed that retrofitting existing buildings with improved insulation leads to reduced annual service demand, though R-values were slightly lower than new construction due to retrofit limitations.
9.1.4 Vehicle Fuel Price Forecasts Vehicle fuel savings represent the avoided gasoline or diesel costs that would be incurred by an equivalent ICE vehicle to satisfy an average lifetime VMT. To calculate avoided gasoline or diesel, a forec...
AI summary The document discusses the methodology for calculating vehicle fuel savings based on avoided gasoline and diesel costs compared to ICE vehicles. It uses fuel economy projections from NREL, UC Davis, EIA, and NHTS, along with price forecasts from Canada's Energy Future 2018 report for Nova Scotia.
9.1.5 Marginal Electricity Supply Costs for EV Charging and Buildings Electricity supply costs represent the costs that utilities must pay to provide the electricity used for EV charging. There are four components that make up electricity...
AI summary The text discusses the four components of electricity supply costs—energy, capacity, distribution, and transmission—specifically for EV charging and buildings. It outlines how energy costs are based on hourly short-run marginal costs, while capacity, distribution, and transmission costs are derived from Nova Scotia Power and allocated using the PCAF method, which targets the highest net load hours for cost allocation.
E3 calculated avoided emissions for the adoption of both electric vehicles and heat pumps as the avoided emission from the reduction in fossil fuel combustion net of the marginal increase in electric sector emissions. Hourly electric secto...
AI summary The document discusses the calculation of avoided emissions from the adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps, using hourly electric sector marginal emissions rates provided by Nova Scotia Power through 2050 based on IRP modeling. Table 9-2 summarizes emissions rates for avoided transportation fuels.
Tonnes/Liter Gasoline Diesel CO2 2.30 x 10-3 2.91 x 10-3 NOx 8.40 x 10-7 1.35 x 10-6 PM10 1.64 x 10-7 2.42 x 10-7 SO2 6.74 x 10-9 1.20 x 10-8 [Table 9-3](#page-113-2) summarizes the emissions rates for avoided fuels used for space heating....
AI summary The text presents emissions rates for various fuels used in space heating, including gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, natural gas, and wood, highlighting their respective CO2, NOx, and PM10 emissions. These data are summarized in Table 9-3 and are relevant to building energy use and environmental impact.
9.2.1 Heat Pump Capital Costs E3 developed capital cost assumptions for heat pumps in collaboration with Nova Scotia Power. Based on their experience supporting heat pump adoption, Nova Scotia Power reported that the typical cost of instal...
AI summary E3 developed capital cost assumptions for heat pumps in collaboration with Nova Scotia Power, based on their experience with heat pump installations. Costs for different sizes and types of heat pumps were estimated, with data adjusted for Nova Scotia labor rates. A reference to a Massachusetts report is cited for additional analysis.
E3's BCA models heat pump costs declining in the future to study the evolving economics of heat pump adoption over time. E3 derived technology cost learning rates from heat pump cost projects from NREL's Electrification Futures Study : End...
AI summary E3's BCA models project declining heat pump costs over time, using learning rates from NREL's Electrification Futures Study. The analysis assumes constant labor and counterfactual heating system costs, while varying heat pump sizes based on home type and scenario design.