Topic:"Energy Efficiency" in M08059

This result illustrates the value of wind and energy efficiency resources in comparison to gas, oil, and import energy, which in general are otherwise the marginal energy sources.  All scenarios utilizing a load forecast that reflects med...

AI summary The text compares wind and energy efficiency resources to fossil fuels and imports, showing that higher demand-side management (DSM) and wind capacity accelerate coal unit retirements (as early as 2024) and reduce planning reserve requirements by 157 MW by 2029. Scenario 1, based on 2017 forecasts, retains thermal fleet capacity through 2030, but other scenarios demonstrate lower NPVRR costs.

nd performance, since battery energy storage systems can replace the increasingly peaking nature of the energy provided by the least cost‐effective of the coal fleet resources.  The bookend scenarios (25, 26) with accelerated coal plant r...

AI summary The text compares NPVRR across scenarios with accelerated coal plant retirements and gas price sensitivity. Accelerated retirements show lower NPVRR, while gas price changes don't significantly alter outcomes. Energy efficiency and wind integration (Scenario 13) are noted as cost-effective alternatives. The Plexos optimization model's results suggest soft-constraint violations in some scenarios.

NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 40 Final Report 3.4. Energy Balances Plant Utilization – Capacity Factors – Coal and Tufts Cove Units Figures 8 through 11 contain the utilization of the aggregate coal fleet (as...

AI summary This section discusses the utilization of coal and Tufts Cove units under various scenarios, showing declining coal fleet utilization due to emission regulations and changing utilization patterns at Tufts Cove units, influenced by factors like wind energy and load levels.

New CC ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ New CT Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 47 Final Report Energy by Fuel Type The presence of the continually declining emissi...

AI summary The report discusses the impact of declining emissions constraints on the shift from higher to lower carbon fuels in Nova Scotia's energy mix. It highlights how least-cost dispatch results influence the mix, considering factors like fuel prices, hydro and wind availability, and energy pricing from the Maritime Link and New Brunswick imports.

tion could be established. We anticipate that the Regional Electricity Cooperation and Strategic Infrastructure Investment (RECSI) report will shed more light on options for the Province to consider. 4.2. Recommendations Based on our analy...

AI summary The report recommends next steps for NSPI, including confirming energy efficiency potential, evaluating demand response, investigating battery storage costs, and monitoring sustaining capital costs for the thermal fleet. These steps aim to support the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process and ensure accurate modeling of resource options.

The modeling plan includes scenarios with three different “net” load levels. Peak shaving and increased energy efficiency resources in Nova Scotia are critical resources that cannot be as well-represented in PLEXOS as the supply-side alter...

AI summary The modeling plan uses three load scenarios (reference, mid DSM, high DSM) to evaluate demand-side management (DSM) and energy efficiency. It highlights challenges in representing demand-side resources in PLEXOS, opting instead for a scenario approach focused on NSPI system load. Mid DSM targets 2.0%/year energy efficiency savings, while high DSM adds peak shaving via demand response and AMI. Costs are handled separately, outside PLEXOS.

of the (now two) retirement path bookend scenarios, for all years (2022-2040). Additional Comments • The Industrial Group makes recommendations for both scenarios and input assumptions. o At this time, we will continue with just two load s...

AI summary The Industrial Group recommends two retirement path scenarios, noting that current load forecasts may underestimate energy efficiency gains. They adjust sustaining capital assumptions upward and highlight Synapse's concerns about NSPI's methodology underestimating wind capacity's resource adequacy in winter-peaking regions.

- - - - - 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 5% New CT Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-13 Appendix 5.5 Detailed Scenario Results – Energy by Fuel Type S...

AI summary The document contains detailed scenario results from an energy analysis conducted by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. for Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) on thermal generation utilization and optimization, with multiple scenarios exploring different fuel types, DSM levels, and wind capacity credits.

s of resources. Our aim is to provide a modeling analysis that shows the costs of retention versus the costs of alternative resource plans that use a different mix of resources to meet capacity needs. The analysis proceeds in an electric s...

AI summary The analysis compares the costs of retaining coal resources versus alternative resource plans, considering declining renewable energy costs, increasing coal costs, infrastructure changes like the Maritime Link, and carbon emission reductions. It evaluates economic viability of coal amid aging plants and uncertain gas prices.

The modeling plan includes scenarios with three different “net” load levels. Peak shaving and increased energy efficiency resources in Nova Scotia are critical resources that cannot be as well-represented in PLEXOS as the supply-side alter...

AI summary The modeling plan uses three scenarios (reference, mid DSM, high DSM) to evaluate demand-side management (DSM) and energy efficiency in Nova Scotia. It prioritizes demand-side resources due to PLEXOS' limitations in representing them. Mid DSM assumes 2.0%/year energy efficiency gains, while high DSM adds peak shaving through demand response. Costs are calculated separately using utility-specific metrics.

‐stated at the 4/13/2017 technical conference, is not well‐supported. It is not at all clear that lengthy retention of the coal units was the most economic option arising from the 2014 IRP analysis.2 2 A truer optimization, given the model...

AI summary The text critiques the 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) analysis for not adequately considering alternative capacity options to coal units, emphasizing the need for iterative planning and demand-side management (DSM) strategies to achieve cost-effective surplus capacity.

mands and potential NPCC CP-8 Working Group 48 Approved by the RCC - December 6, 2016 NPCC 2016 LONG RANGE ADEQUACY OVERVIEW imports to NB from NS that may begin after the completion of the HVDC interconnection to the Canadian province of...

AI summary The document discusses energy efficiency program growth in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia's planned renewable capacity additions (wind, solar, biomass), and potential impacts of retiring a coal plant. It notes that HVDC interconnection to Newfoundland may offset coal retirement, with reliability concerns if hydro capacity delays occur.

stated at the 4/13/2017 technical conference, is not well-supported. It is not at all clear that lengthy retention of the coal units was the most economic option arising from the 2014 IRP analysis. 5 5 A truer optimization, given the model...

AI summary The text critiques the 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for inadequately evaluating alternatives to retaining coal units, emphasizing the need for iterative analysis to compare resource plans. It highlights demand-side management (DSM) and alternative capacity options (e.g., wind, storage, demand response) as more economical solutions and recommends additional system studies.

e for NSPI customers. A portfolio of alternatives, rather than a single substitution of new capacity for coal plants, 15 is likely the lowest cost among competing alternatives to coal plant retention. We suggest a rigorous analytical appro...

AI summary The text advocates for a portfolio approach to replace coal plants, emphasizing the use of PLEXOS modeling for detailed capacity expansion analysis. It stresses the need to evaluate both demand-side (e.g., energy efficiency) and supply-side alternatives, considering cost trends and greenhouse gas reduction value. Rigorous analysis of demand-side options is highlighted as critical for accurate capacity planning.

File No: SM002557-00003 Nancy G. Rubin, Q.C. Direct Dial: 902.420-3337 [email protected] July 17, 2017 Delivered by E-mail Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 3rd Floor 1601 Lower Wat...

AI summary The Industrial Group submits comments on Synapse's Terms of Reference for M08059, recommending sensitivity analyses for energy efficiency and capital scenarios. They suggest running base, high, and low load scenarios and varying sustaining capital levels to better assess generation utilization and optimization.

by NSPI. A. Carbon costs from regulation a. The SBA is concerned about the assumption that high carbon costs occur with high fuel prices. B. Fuel Price Forecasts a. Why is the assumption made that there is CO2 emissions limits or costs est...

AI summary The SBA questions assumptions linking high carbon costs to fuel prices and challenges the exclusion of CO2 limits in fuel forecasts. Concerns are raised about fuel price correlations and load forecast uncertainty tied to DSM programs. The 5BA emphasizes the need for robust resource analysis, including DSM supply curves and demand response cost assessments.

respect to Load, the base case is a current forecast and energy efficiency, while the next two cases are increased energy efficiency and highest energy efficiency, while there is no case to deal with (friis doreen - php comments on terms o...

AI summary The text discusses load forecasting scenarios with varying energy efficiency levels (base case, increased efficiency, highest efficiency) and suggests a technical session for Synapse to explain assumptions. PHP requests clarity on Synapse's rationale for forecasting inputs, emphasizing stakeholder understanding of future NSPI generation requirements.

ts illustrated below. Due to time limitations, we will not define scenarios for all possible permutations of input assumptions. Illustrative Matrix: Example of key parameters and range of assumptions Alternative assumptions: Set 1 Set 2 Se...

AI summary The text presents a matrix of alternative assumptions for energy planning parameters, including load, capital requirements, gas prices, transmission, wind resource costs, demand response, storage, carbon costs, and balancing areas. Scenarios explore varying levels of energy efficiency, capital needs, and resource availability.

resource categories are carefully specified for use in Plexos; we anticipate that early provision (July) by NSPI of detailed Plexos input files in Plexos configuration will be of particular value: 4 • Existing coal, oil and gas thermal res...

AI summary The document outlines resource categories for Plexos modeling, including fossil fuels, renewables, storage, transmission, and demand-side management. NSPI will provide detailed input files, with data sources including NREL, US EIA, and others. The load forecast aligns with NSPI's latest projections.

1. Confirm costs and achievable potential NS Power supports this recommendation. for incremental energy efficiency. As seen, NS Power believes that a new DSM energy efficiency displaces higher cost potential study should be completed to en...

AI summary NS Power supports recommendations to evaluate energy efficiency displacement of costly energy sources, develop cost curves for demand response, assess bulk battery storage economics, and monitor thermal fleet capital costs. The IRP must incorporate these analyses through transparent UARB processes.

tential Study. This update to the 2013 Potential Study considered a portfolio with markedly less energy and capacity savings from lighting-based measures, and as such is indicative of future increased 1 M08059, N-1, Final Report – Economic...

AI summary EfficiencyOne highlights the cost-effectiveness of DSM measures like building retrofits despite higher upfront costs, noting $0.41B incremental DSM costs in Scenario 2 are offset by $0.49B fuel savings and additional $0.61B in operational savings. Synapse recommends confirming DSM potential before the next IRP to reflect energy efficiency's role in displacing costly energy sources.

ficiency. As seen, energy efficiency displaces higher cost energy sources in the province (gas, oil, imports) and the IRP must fully reflect this resource option. 2. Determine costs and achievable potential for peak‐load reducing demand re...

AI summary EfficiencyOne agrees with Synapse's recommendations to conduct a DSM Potential Study before the next IRP, estimating a 6-8 month timeline. They also plan demand reduction pilots pending UARB approval, aligning with Synapse's second recommendation for better cost estimates. The IRP must account for energy efficiency displacing higher-cost energy sources.

t is indicated through 2030.1 And, NS Power also notes, properly, that these results do not reflect a “final determination as to the long-term utilization of these generation units”. However, the entirety of our analysis indicates that alm...

AI summary The analysis indicates that retiring a second coal unit before 2030 is economically viable in multiple scenarios, with lower overall costs compared to the reference plan. Synapse's report recommends confirming energy efficiency potential as part of the IRP process, emphasizing its role in displacing higher-cost energy sources.

Addendum to Final Report - M08059 Generation Utilization and Optimization - DSM Avoided Costs Memorandum TO: M08059 GENERATION UTILIZATION AND OPTIMIZATION STAKEHOLDERS FROM: BOB FAGAN – SYNAPSE ENERGY ECONOMICS DATE: OCTOBER 19, 2018 RE:...

AI summary This memo calculates avoided energy and capacity costs from DSM resources in Scenario 2 of the Generation Utilization and Optimization Study. It uses a differential revenue requirements approach, analyzing fixed (capacity-related) and variable (energy-related) costs between Scenario 1 (reference) and Scenario 2 (medium DSM) across 2018–2042. Results show per-MWh and per-kW avoided costs for each study year.

ction/build costs, and sustaining capital costs. Variable (or energy related) cost components include fuel, variable O&M, renewable energy provision, interchange, and startup/shutdown elements. 1 Final Report, “Nova Scotia Power Inc. Therm...

AI summary The text outlines a method for calculating avoided capacity and energy costs under different DSM scenarios, considering fixed and variable costs, emissions constraints, and transmission/distribution infrastructure impacts. It references a 2018 report (M08059) analyzing fossil-fueled thermal fleet retention and optimization.