N-8Electrification Strategy Report
44 passages
Nova Scotia has established a formal goal to transition to net zero carbon emissions by midcentury 1 , in alignment with Canada's federal target and targets set by other climate-leading nations. Achieving this goal requires rapid transform...
AI summary Nova Scotia aims to achieve net zero carbon emissions by midcentury. Electrification of transportation and building end-uses is a key strategy, requiring careful planning to manage costs, grid reliability, and infrastructure needs. Nova Scotia Power is working with E3 to assess beneficial electrification measures and their impacts on consumers, ratepayers, and the province.
benefits and costs of an additional electric vehicle or heat pump on Nova Scotia's Grid? This serves as a complement to IRP PLEXOS analysis of the total impacts of electrification loads on the grid. weighted averages of marginal emissions...
AI summary The analysis examines the grid impacts of scaling electric vehicles and heat pumps, noting that marginal emissions and costs depend on energy prices, carbon policies, and efficiency measures. System-level load and peak load impacts are emphasized, with scenarios excluding energy efficiency effects. The study focuses on building heat pumps and EVs, excluding other sectors.
rate of heat pump technology cost decline, the influence of high fuel prices on future electricity rates, rate design, oil prices, and other important variables. Finally, we note that although not within scope for this study, existing rese...
AI summary The text highlights that declining heat pump costs, high fuel prices, and rate design influence electrification economics. It argues electrification remains cheaper than decarbonized fuels for most homes, with new construction being more cost-effective than retrofits. References to Maryland and Washington studies support these claims.
- Spur electrification with ratepayer benefits: Rebates can help customers overcome electrification first-costs. While the government should support adoption aimed at achieving the societal goals and benefits of electrification, the utilit...
AI summary The text discusses the need for rebates to support electrification, emphasizing the role of utilities in encouraging technologies with better RIM results. It highlights that while EVs and oil-to-heat pump conversions can yield net revenues, some customers may require non-ratepayer funding to achieve full electrification. Transportation and space heating rebates are proposed to reduce upfront costs and encourage adoption.
Long-Term Strategy and Planning Recommendation 5. Fully incorporate electrification strategy findings, including peak impacts and mitigation strategies, into utility planning models. - Model impacts on resource needs and costs : Reliably s...
AI summary The recommendation emphasizes the need for Nova Scotia Power to fully integrate electrification strategy findings into its planning models, considering impacts on resource needs, reliability, and affordability. It highlights the importance of evaluating peak mitigation strategies, reliability benefits from managed loads, and affordability implications of electrification.
Partnerships & Customer Engagement Recommendation 7. Electrification at scale requires concerted effort and coordination across diverse organizations and interests with complementary expertise. Nova Scotia Power should continue to proactiv...
AI summary The document emphasizes the need for Nova Scotia Power to build partnerships with various stakeholders to support large-scale electrification. Key partners include Efficiency One, government, third-party EVSE providers, equipment manufacturers, transit operators, and consumer advocates. The recommendation also highlights the importance of equitable access to electrification programs for lower-income and disadvantaged communities.
Identify underserved communities and prioritize investments to ensure equitable access: Without intentional program design, electrification at scale is expected to pose challenges that disproportionately impact lower-income and disadvantag...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of identifying underserved communities to ensure equitable access to electrification benefits. It highlights challenges faced by lower-income and disadvantaged communities, such as limited access to charging infrastructure and the need for infrastructure upgrades in areas served by radial transmission lines. It emphasizes the need for Nova Scotia Power and E1 to collaborate with governments to address these issues and prioritize investments that promote equity.
1.1 Motivation Economy-wide decarbonization modeling in Nova Scotia and in jurisdictions across North America demonstrates that electrification of transportation and most buildings is a "safe bet" strategy for achieving Net Zero. Electrifi...
AI summary The document highlights the importance of electrification in achieving Net Zero goals in Nova Scotia, emphasizing its cost-effectiveness and the availability of current technologies. It outlines the need for Nova Scotia Power and stakeholders to understand the economic and system-level impacts of electrification to support decarbonization efforts.
1.2 Objectives The objective of this report is to answer the following questions to inform Nova Scotia Power, provincial policymakers, and other stakeholders on the development of electrification programs that help the province meet its de...
AI summary This report aims to inform Nova Scotia Power and provincial policymakers on the development of electrification programs to meet decarbonization goals. It addresses jurisdictional roles of electrification, economic impacts of technologies like electric vehicles and heat pumps, and utility planning recommendations for managing electrification's effects on the electric sector.
1.3 Report Contents The study is organized as follows: - Section 2 of this report provides an overview of electrification initiatives across North America. - Section 3 assesses the impacts of electrification on Nova Scotia Power's system i...
AI summary This section outlines the structure of the report, detailing the assessment of electrification initiatives, their impacts on Nova Scotia Power's system, and the benefits and costs of electrification for the utility and province.
2.2.2 Costs The economics for EVs are improving quickly and some models of EVs are expected to reach cost parity with ICE vehicles by the late 2020s. The average light-duty EV, in considering an average of vehicle ranges, is forecasted to...
AI summary The text discusses the improving economics of electric vehicles (EVs), noting that some models are expected to reach cost parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by the late 2020s, with average light-duty EVs projected to reach parity by the mid-2030s. It also references a figure showing upfront costs and total cost of ownership for BEVs and ICE vehicles.
2.2.3 Example Utility Actions Most utilities within Net Zero jurisdictions are proactively planning for transportation electrification. The utilities with the most advanced planning for transportation electrification have aligned strategic...
AI summary Utilities in Net Zero jurisdictions are planning for transportation electrification, aligning strategic goals with transportation policies and implementing managed charging pilot programs. Examples include BC Hydro, Hydro-Québec, and Southern California Edison. Transportation electrification rate designs, such as time-of-use (TOU) rates, are being adopted, though they do not fully capture real-time electricity supply costs.
2.2.4 State of the Market and Challenges The state of the market for EVs has changed drastically over the past several years. CALSTART and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) publish an annual update on the technology and market read...
AI summary The market for electric vehicles (EVs) has grown significantly, with electric LDVs classified as early market technology. However, challenges remain, including upfront costs, customer awareness, supply chain issues, and insufficient charging infrastructure. Nova Scotia has a lower percentage of BEVs compared to Canada overall and lacks registered MDVs or HDVs.
2.3.2 Costs The upfront cost of installing a ducted heat pump is higher than fossil fuel heating systems in most jurisdictions, but the incremental cost can vary significantly based on heat pump type and market maturity in the region[. Fig...
AI summary The upfront cost of ducted heat pumps is higher than fossil fuel heating systems, though incremental costs vary by region and technology. In cold climates, heat pumps may offer long-term savings when paired with efficiency measures, incentives, or favorable rate designs. Electrification at scale is generally more cost-effective than relying on decarbonized gas, which is limited in supply and commercialization.
2.3.3 Example Utility Actions In many jurisdictions with Net Zero targets, utilities have adopted programs, incentives, and customer education programs to support building electrification. It is increasingly common practice for utilities a...
AI summary Utilities in jurisdictions with Net Zero targets are implementing programs to support building electrification, including heat pump rebates, all-electric construction, retrofits, and smart thermostats. Some use ratepayer funds, while others leverage provincial budgets, local taxes, and carbon fees. Examples include Sacramento Municipal Utility District and utilities like BC Hydro and Hydro-Quebec.
2.4 Role of the Utility in Electrification Achieving widespread benefits from electrification requires a range of important short-term programs and long-term planning activities. Utilities play a critical role in supporting adoption, enabl...
AI summary Achieving widespread benefits from electrification requires both short-term programs and long-term planning by utilities. Nova Scotia Power must support adoption, enable interconnection, and ensure a just transition. The utility must also plan for increased system peak demand and future grid needs. Key considerations include resource needs, reliability, distribution system, revenue requirements, and affordability and equity planning.
3.2.2 Key Modeling Inputs To develop the transportation load shapes, key inputs into the E3 EV Load Shape Tool include: - Annual Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT): the miles or kilometers an average LDV, transit bus, and parcel truck per year...
AI summary The document outlines key modeling inputs for transportation load shapes, including annual vehicle miles travelled, EV efficiency, charger availability, and charging rates. It references Nova Scotia Power's TOU rates for residential, workplace, and public charging scenarios.
3.2.3 Transportation Scenarios E3 modeled four scenarios for EV load shapes based on the access to rates and level of EV charge management, in order to evaluate potential impacts on load and system peak. 51 All scenarios assume adoption of...
AI summary E3 modeled four scenarios for EV load shapes based on access to rates and charge management, evaluating impacts on load and system peak. Scenarios include unmanaged charging, blended, managed with TOU, and managed with VGI aggregation, considering TOU responsiveness and load management techniques.
A summary of the scenario assumptions are shown in Figure 3-4 below. Figure 3-5. System-level light-duty EV load shape scenarios Unmanaged Charging Scenario Blended (Unmanaged and Managed with VGI) Scenario Managed with TOU Managed with VG...
AI summary The text discusses EV load shape scenarios, including unmanaged charging, blended scenarios with managed and unmanaged charging, and managed charging with TOU and VGI aggregation. These scenarios analyze access, time of use, responsiveness, and load management strategies.
3.3.3 Building Scenarios In all scenarios modeled, E3 assumes that 100% of sales of heating equipment are heat pumps by 2030 resulting in nearly all residential customers and 96% of commercial customers having heat pumps by 2050. Most scen...
AI summary E3 models various scenarios for heat pump adoption in Nova Scotia by 2030 and 2050, including Current Trends, No Electric Resistance Phaseout, Best-in-Class, and Current Trends Hybrid. These scenarios consider different heat pump technologies, adoption rates, and the impact of demand-side management (DSM) on system performance.
Table 3-4. Building scenario design No Electric Resistance Phaseout Current Trends All-Electric Best-in-Class Current Trends Dual-Fuel Today's gas and oil heating buildings Adopt ASHP Adopt ASHP Adopt ASHP Adopt mini-split systems and reta...
AI summary Table 3-4 outlines different building scenarios for heating systems, comparing the adoption of air source heat pumps (ASHP) and electric resistance (ER) heating systems across various categories such as performance, sizing, and building shell improvements. The scenarios include No Electric Resistance Phaseout, Current Trends All-Electric, Best-in-Class, and Current Trends Dual-Fuel.
3.4 Combined Electrification Load Impacts Considering both transportation and buildings, electrification will generate significant electric load and peak impacts. Transportation loads are forecasted to make up a larger portion of annual lo...
AI summary Electrification in Nova Scotia, considering both transportation and buildings, is expected to significantly increase electric load and peak demand. Transportation is projected to contribute more to annual load, while buildings are expected to disproportionately impact peak load, especially during cold winter days.
4.1 Overview of Benefit-Cost Analysis Modeling E3's Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) approach assesses the marginal benefits and costs of heat pump adoption for representative heat pump technologies and building segments. The analysis presents...
AI summary E3's Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) evaluates the marginal benefits and costs of heat pump and EV adoption in Nova Scotia, using data from Nova Scotia Power and the International Council on Clean Transportation. Results are sensitive to assumptions about capital costs, fuel prices, and electricity supply costs, with more details provided in Appendix 7.2.
4.2 Benefit-Cost Analysis Model E3's Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) Model calculates the costs and benefits associated with transportation and building electrification. Costs and benefits in the E3 BCA Model are organized by perspective, usin...
AI summary E3's Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) Model evaluates the costs and benefits of transportation and building electrification from three perspectives: Participant Cost Test (PCT), Societal Cost Test (SCT), and Ratepayer Impact Measure (RIM). Each perspective uses a different discount rate to calculate net present value (NPV) and assess the impact of electrification on individuals, society, and non-participating ratepayers.
Cost/Benefit Component PCT SCT RIM Incremental upfront EV cost Cost Cost Federal EV purchase incentives Benefit Benefit Provincial EV purchase incentives Benefit EV O&M savings Benefit Benefit Vehicle fuel savings Benefit Benefit Electrici...
AI summary The table outlines various cost and benefit components associated with electric vehicles (EVs) under the Participant Cost Test (PCT), Societal Cost Test (SCT), and Ratepayer Impact Measure (RIM). It includes factors such as incremental upfront EV costs, federal and provincial EV purchase incentives, operational savings, fuel savings, electricity costs, charging infrastructure, and avoided emissions.
Cost/Benefit Component PCT SCT RIM Incremental Electricity Bills1 Cost Benefit Incremental Appliance Cost Cost Cost Avoided Fuel Bills Benefit Utility Incentives Benefit Cost Electricity Supply Costs2 Cost Cost Avoided Fuel Supply Costs Be...
AI summary The table presents a cost/benefit analysis of various components related to switching to heat pumps and other energy efficiency measures. It highlights incremental electricity bills, appliance costs, avoided fuel bills, utility incentives, and emissions, showing both costs and benefits depending on the perspective of participants and the broader system.
4.4 Building Benefit-Cost Analysis Results [Table 4-9](#page-69-0) summarizes the results of the building electrification BCA for a select configuration of representative buildings adopting heat pumps for space heating. In general, the cus...
AI summary The benefit-cost analysis of building electrification in Nova Scotia shows that heat pumps are cost-effective for single-family homes, especially with current fuel prices. However, best-in-class heat pumps require additional incentives due to higher upfront costs. The analysis is sensitive to fuel oil prices, electricity rates, and capital costs, with assumptions based on Nova Scotia Power's experience and the Evergreen IRP Scenario 3.1C.
5. Conclusions & Implications for Nova Scotia Power Across North America, electrification is a core pillar of strategies to decarbonize the economy, and it has substantial participant and societal benefits, as well as ratepayer benefits un...
AI summary Electrification is a key strategy for decarbonizing the economy across North America, offering benefits to participants, society, and ratepayers. This study provides key findings for Nova Scotia Power as it supports provincial electrification efforts.
5.1 Key Analysis Findings The analysis generated several findings related to electrification in Nova Scotia.
AI summary The analysis generated several findings related to electrification in Nova Scotia, focusing on key areas such as energy efficiency, renewable energy integration, and the impact of electrification on the grid and customers.
Key Finding 1: Building and transportation electrification reduces emissions in Nova Scotia. In all transportation and building electrification scenarios evaluated, incremental CO 2 emissions from electricity generation to meet vehicle cha...
AI summary Building and transportation electrification in Nova Scotia leads to significant CO2 emission reductions. Electrified vehicles and buildings produce lower lifetime emissions compared to fossil fuel alternatives, with benefits increasing as the grid becomes cleaner. For example, a light-duty electric vehicle reduces emissions by nearly 20 tons over its lifetime.
Key Finding 2. Most transportation electrification investments produce benefits that exceed costs from the perspective of drivers, utility ratepayers and Nova Scotia. While electric vehicles have higher up-front costs today, drivers benefi...
AI summary Most transportation electrification investments, such as electric vehicles and transit buses, produce benefits that exceed costs for drivers, utility ratepayers, and Nova Scotia. Benefits include lower maintenance costs, avoided gasoline purchases, and reduced emissions. Battery cost declines are expected to improve the economics of electric vehicles over time.
5.2 Recommendations for Nova Scotia Power Electrification has the potential to provide significant benefits to Nova Scotians by reducing total energy expenditures and lowering the province's overall emissions footprint. However, realizing...
AI summary Electrification can benefit Nova Scotians by reducing energy costs and emissions, but requires collaboration. Nova Scotia Power is positioned to lead initiatives supporting electrification, particularly in reliability and equity. Recommendations are based on analysis and E3's experience.
prices. 73 - In this instance, E3 does not believe that submetering or installing a second meter for EVs is necessary to support EV adoption in the near-term. These options have generally 71 The conceptual ideal multi-part rate design incl...
AI summary The text discusses rate design concepts, including dynamic hourly energy rates, demand charges, and nonbypassable customer charges. It also mentions a program's success and challenges related to software customizations and the lack of direct charging control, limiting the use of VGI for renewable integration and distribution system management.
Long-Term Strategy and Planning Recommendation 5. Fully incorporate electrification strategy findings, including peak impacts and mitigation strategies, into utility planning models. - Model impacts on resource needs and costs : Reliably s...
AI summary The recommendation emphasizes the need to fully incorporate electrification strategy findings into utility planning models, focusing on resource needs, reliability impacts, and affordability. It highlights the importance of modeling peak load impacts, evaluating reliability benefits of managed loads, and assessing the equity and affordability implications of electrification.
Recommendation 6. Advance public-facing distribution planning process to support electrification Proactive distribution system planning: Utility planners need to manage an increasingly complex distribution system proactively and effectivel...
AI summary This recommendation emphasizes the need for Nova Scotia Power to advance a public-facing distribution planning process to support electrification. It highlights the importance of proactive planning, load forecasting, and stakeholder engagement to manage increasing complexity in the distribution system and ensure reliable, resilient grid operations.
Partnerships & Customer Engagement Recommendation 7. Electrification at scale requires concerted effort and coordination across diverse organizations and interests with complementary expertise. Nova Scotia Power should continue to proactiv...
AI summary The text emphasizes the need for Nova Scotia Power to build partnerships with Efficiency One and the government to advance electrification efforts. It highlights the importance of aligning with the Public Utilities Act and Bill 228 to promote energy efficiency, reduce emissions, and ensure equitable access to electrified solutions.
As discussed in Section 3, electrification at scale could potentially have large impacts on system peak loads. Many studies have demonstrated that coupling energy efficiency investments such as weatherization and building shell improvement...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of electrification and energy efficiency measures on system peak loads. It highlights that combining electrification with energy efficiency investments, such as building shell improvements, is critical for cost-effective decarbonization. E3 modeled scenarios showing significant reductions in heating demand for residential and commercial buildings through DSM strategies.
Current Trends All-Electric Best-in-Class Pre-DSM With DSM Pre-DSM With DSM Today's gas and oil heating buildings Adopt ASHP Adopt ASHP Today's electric resistance buildings Adopt ASHP Adopt ASHP Heat pump performance ASHPs are 30% base; 4...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of adopting air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) and building shell improvements on load growth in electrification scenarios. In the Current Trends scenario with DSM, shell measures reduce incremental load growth by 12% in 2050. In the Best-in-Class scenario with DSM, efficiency savings from shell improvements could result in negative incremental load growth.
9.1.3 EV O&M Savings EVs generally have lower lifetime operating and maintenance (O&M) costs than an equivalent ICE vehicle. A per mile O&M savings, determined separately for each vehicle class, is applied to the vehicle class average life...
AI summary Electric vehicles (EVs) have lower lifetime operating and maintenance (O&M) costs compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The savings are calculated per mile and applied to the average lifetime Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) for each vehicle class.
Charger 2022 2030 Home L1 $0 $0 Home L2 $2,568 $2,358 Work L2 $7,465 $6,855 Public L2 $7,465 $6,855 DCFC $137,279 $126,060 9.1.7 Avoided Emissions
AI summary The table outlines the projected costs for different types of chargers in 2022 and 2030. The section 'Avoided Emissions' suggests a focus on environmental benefits related to charger usage.
E3's BCA models heat pump costs declining in the future to study the evolving economics of heat pump adoption over time. E3 derived technology cost learning rates from heat pump cost projects from NREL's Electrification Futures Study : End...
AI summary E3's BCA models project declining heat pump costs over time, using learning rates from NREL's Electrification Futures Study. The analysis assumes constant labor and counterfactual heating system costs, while varying heat pump sizes based on home type and scenario design.
Appendix: E3 BCA Tool Inputs and Assumptions The Economics of Electrification in Nova Scotia: The Economics of Electrification in Nova Scotia Table 9-5 Heat pump equipment cost learning curves End use Time period Moderate (Real %/year) Rap...
AI summary This document provides an overview of heat pump equipment cost learning curves and fuel price forecasts for the period 2020-2050, as part of the Economics of Electrification in Nova Scotia. It outlines projected cost reductions for space heating and water heating applications under different time periods and learning rates.
10.1.1 Light-duty Vehicles Cost-benefit breakdowns are also shown for EVs adopted in 2030. [Figure 10-1.s](#page-118-2)hows cost-benefit analysis results for an EV adopted in 2030 with unmanaged charging. Figure 10-1. NPV cost-benefit anal...
AI summary The text discusses cost-benefit analyses for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) adopted in 2030, highlighting larger savings for electric vehicles (EVs) due to reduced upfront costs and available rebates. It also compares unmanaged and managed charging scenarios, noting that savings from managed charging are limited to winter months due to time-varying rates.
10.2.1 Residential Water Heating Electrification of water heating presents net economic benefits to participants, ratepayers, and Nova Scotia. [Figure 10-3](#page-120-0) shows the results of the cost-benefit test for the adoption of a heat...
AI summary The electrification of residential water heating, specifically through heat pump water heaters (HPWH), is shown to provide significant net economic benefits to customers, ratepayers, and society in Nova Scotia. The analysis highlights that the avoided fuel costs outweigh the incremental costs of HPWH adoption, leading to lower rates and societal benefits exceeding $9,000.