Topic:"Forecasting Methodology" in M06733

Additional Analysis by NS Power Throughout the fall of 2014 and into 2015, ENS worked with NS Power to incorporate additional NS Power-provided data into Navigant's model. Specifically, NS Power requested that ENS incorporate system load-s...

AI summary NS Power collaborated with ENS to integrate load-shape data into Navigant's model, resulting in lower demand savings than the Base-DSM Scenario. NS Power's analysis of the Low-DSM Scenario showed similar capacity additions avoided as the Mid-DSM Scenario until 2032, with results shared in February 2015.

Overall Assumptions Differing from previous years, this rate and bill impact analysis is forward-looking and does not present historical results from 2011-2014. There are some instances however, that historical data were utilized; their sp...

AI summary The analysis is forward-looking, using ENS's 2016-2018 DSM Resource Plan and Navigant Consulting's EL-RAM model. It incorporates the 2014 IRP's energy forecasts up to 2040 provided by NS Power, with benefits extending 16 years beyond the plan's timeframe. Historical data is selectively used where relevant.

Alternative DSM Scenarios Alternative Scenarios explore the effect of varying levels of DSM investment. DSM Potential Study data ($M and GWh) for the Low, Base, and Mid-DSM Scenarios over 2016-2018 were used to inform the model with respec...

AI summary The analysis evaluates alternative DSM investment scenarios (Low, Base, Mid, and NS Power's 50% Low IRP) to assess energy savings impacts. ENS's proposed Plan is compared against these scenarios, with the Base scenario omitted due to similarity. NS Power's 50% Low Scenario, not vetted by ENS, uses conservative avoided costs. The model assumes 75% of energy savings changes stem from participant numbers, with 25% from adoption depth, capped at 100% participation.

its is sufficiently robust, are larger firms more likely to enter the market and, with them, bring economies of scale and marketing prowess that can ultimately drive growth in home energy performance. So short-term "resource acquisition" (...

AI summary The text emphasizes balancing short-term resource acquisition (RA) with long-term strategies like education and policy changes to achieve sustainable energy savings. While short-term RA provides immediate measurable results, long-term efforts are critical for sustained impact. The analogy to industries like pharmaceuticals and manufacturing underscores the need for strategic investment trade-offs between immediate gains and long-term benefits.

ctiveness of demand-side management (DSM) options. More recently, the DSM community has come to question the wisdom of basing key decisions on the TRC. Specifically, four concerns have come to light: - 1. Accuracy: To many, the TRC has bee...

AI summary The text critiques the Total Resource Cost (TRC) methodology in Demand-Side Management (DSM), highlighting four concerns: accuracy of assumptions, systemic bias against DSM, neglect of ratepayer value, and potential policy conflicts with Nova Scotia's 2014 legislation. The TRC's flawed application may skew decisions against DSM, undermining equitable cost-benefit analysis.

ISSUE #1: ACCURACY: IS THE TRC CALCULATED CORRECTLY? The TRC is the most common test currently in use, and compares all direct benefits, expressed through avoided energy and capacity supply costs, to all direct costs, both for the DSM prog...

AI summary The TRC (Total Resource Cost) ratio compares avoided energy and capacity costs to program and participant costs. While the simplified formula is clear, the detailed algorithm in the Standard Practice Manual lacks clarity on key inputs and assumptions. Six components of the TRC calculation may use different methodological approaches, raising concerns about accuracy.

Discount Rate Issues The TRC determines the present value of costs and savings over time. For these purposes, it uses a discount rate equal to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of the utility involved. Yet a number of regions now...

AI summary The Total Resource Cost (TRC) methodology uses a utility's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) as the discount rate. Critics argue this may undervalue future benefits of Demand Side Management (DSM), which is driven by public policy rather than utility cost minimization. Some regions, like New York and New England states, use a societal discount rate instead, reflecting government borrowing costs.

Energy Savings To calculate the net savings of HER in 2014, the Econoler team first reviewed the methodology used by Opower for calculating the paper-based component savings. The energy savings achieved by the paper-based component are con...

AI summary The document details the evaluation of the Home Energy Report (HER) program's energy savings in Nova Scotia. Econoler calculated net savings by comparing paper-based and web-based components, using control groups and self-reported data. HER achieved 34.711 GWh energy savings and 3.938 MW demand savings from April 2013 to December 2014.

5 IMPACT EVALUATION FOR PAPER-BASED COMPONENT The objective of the 2014 impact evaluation of HER's paper-based component was to determine the net energy savings. In 2012, the State and Local Energy Efficiency Action Network (SEE Action), f...

AI summary The 2014 impact evaluation of HER's paper-based component aimed to assess net energy savings. SEE Action's guidelines recommended using RCT and panel data analysis, but Opower's evaluation lacked independent data cleaning and group assignment. Econoler's evaluation focused on verifying Opower's methodology due to confidentiality issues and prior contract constraints. No free-ridership effects were considered in the accepted savings calculations.

6.1.3 Insulate Windows with Heat-shrink Film The methodology used to estimate the average savings per square meter of window due to the installation of heat-shrink film on windows is based on EC128 technical information 11 . The methodolog...

AI summary The methodology for estimating energy savings from heat-shrink film on windows uses EC128 technical information, adjusted for accuracy while maintaining theoretical integrity. It calculates energy ratios to compensate for losses using survey data from program participants.

Water-heating Energy Usage per Load Econoler used the total energy consumption value for a clothes washer from the 2013 Instant Savings evaluation report; this value was established based on the average Modified Energy Factor (MEF) of all...

AI summary Econoler calculated water-heating energy usage per clothes-washing load using Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN) and Hydro-Québec data. Initial calculations used a Modified Energy Factor (MEF) of 40.5 L/kWh/cycle, resulting in 3.08 kWh per load. Adjustments based on Hydro-Québec's findings reduced this to 0.51 kWh, considering Quebecers use 33% less energy for water-heating than CSA test procedures. The Evaluator assumes similar behavior in Nova Scotia.

CONCLUSION Launched in 2013, HER is an innovative program intended to promote behavioural changes towards greater energy efficiency. Since its inception, a total of 93,119 participants have taken part in the paper-based component of HER, a...

AI summary HER, launched in 2013, has 93,119 paper-based and 10,662 web-based participants. The paper-based component achieved 34.498 GWh savings, while the web-based component had minimal impact (0.291 GWh). Evaluations showed mixed results, with the paper-based component effectively changing behavior but the web-based component showing limited influence. Net savings totaled 34.789 GWh, calculated using control groups for paper-based and self-reported data for web-based components.

Energy Savings To calculate the net savings of HER in 2014, the Econoler team first reviewed the methodology used by Opower for calculating the paper-based component savings. The energy savings achieved by the paper-based component are con...

AI summary The Econoler team evaluated HER's energy savings by analyzing Opower's paper-based methodology and using surveys for web-based components. Net savings of 34.711 GWh and 3.938 MW were recorded from April 2013 to December 2014, using control groups and self-declared participant data.

2 METHODOLOGY This section presents the Econoler team, the methodology used and the activities carried out for the HER evaluation.

AI summary The section introduces the Econoler team, outlines the methodology employed, and details activities conducted for evaluating the Home Energy Report (HER) program.

5 IMPACT EVALUATION FOR PAPER-BASED COMPONENT The objective of the 2014 impact evaluation of HER's paper-based component was to determine the net energy savings. BothIn 2012, the State and Local Energy Efficiency Action Network (SEE Action...

AI summary The 2014 impact evaluation of HER's paper-based component aimed to assess net energy savings using methods like RCT and panel data analysis. However, Opower's evaluation lacked independent oversight and data cleaning due to pre-existing contracts and confidentiality issues. Econoler's evaluation focused on verifying Opower's calculations rather than following SEE Action guidelines.

6.1.3 Insulate Windows with Heat-shrink Film The methodology used to estimate the average savings per square meter of window due to the installation of heat-shrink film on windows is based on EC128 technical information[11.](#page-30-0) Th...

AI summary The methodology for estimating energy savings from heat-shrink film on windows uses EC128 technical information, adjusted for accuracy. It calculates the energy ratio to compensate for leaks and determines an average based on survey data.

7 (c) Eliminate Adoption of Emerging Technologies at High Costs 8 9 With continual improvements in appliance efficiency standards and building 10 codes, the market increasingly adopts more efficient technologies and the cost of 11 these te...

AI summary The document argues that emerging technologies, like LED lighting and solar PV, become more affordable over time due to market trends and economies of scale. NS Power contends that subsidizing early adoption in Nova Scotia is costly, as the province's small market cannot influence technology maturation. Waiting until costs decrease through larger market adoption is more economically efficient.

15 Appropriateness of the Proposed DSM Program Portfolio - 17 Q. HAVE YOU REVIEWED EFFICIENCYONE'S APPLICATION AND 18 PROPOSED PORTFOLIO OF DSM PROGRAMS? - 19 A. Yes, I have reviewed the Application and proposed programs and find 20 three...

AI summary The reviewer identifies three issues with EfficiencyOne's DSM program proposal: incomplete information, potential excessive budgets, and insufficient alternate scenarios. Recommends rejecting the plan and evaluating alternatives.

1 Forecast versus actual Net System Requirement (GWh) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FAM Load Forecast NSR (less PHP and Bowater) 10,007.8 10,050.9 10,098.4 9,861.9 9,831.2 Actual NSR (less PHP and Bowater) 9,900.1 10,031.2 9,947.4 10,113.9 9,95...

AI summary The document compares forecasted and actual Net System Requirements (NSR) in Nova Scotia from 2010 to 2014, showing variances ranging from -1.5% to +2.6%. Weather-normalized NSR data is also provided, with variances adjusted for climatic factors. The analysis highlights discrepancies between forecasts and actual energy demand.

5 Forecast versus actual System Peak (MW) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FAM Peak Forecast (less PHP and Bowater) 1,929.5 2,001.1 2,004.6 1,997.3 1,981.6 Actual Peak (less PHP and Bowater) 1,880.8 1,961.9 1,781.7 1,995.5 2,104.9 Peak Variance to...

AI summary This section compares forecasted and actual system peak demand in Nova Scotia from 2010 to 2014, showing variances between the two. The data includes both regular and weather-normalized peaks, with the actual peak in 2014 exceeding the forecast by 6.2%.

4 the applicable discount rate.

AI summary The text refers to the applicable discount rate, which is a key factor in financial calculations and regulatory proceedings.

3.5.5 Cost Effectiveness Screening [99] Although the Board has not approved the Quantum Agreement, Section 7 contains a provision which states as follows: Through collaboration within the DSM Advisory Group the parties agree to work to ach...

AI summary The Board has not approved the Quantum Agreement but allows the DSM Advisory Group to develop a consensus methodology for cost-effectiveness screening. The existing TRC methodology remains in place, with the Board cautioning that abandoning it requires a compelling case.

a Scotia's 2009 Energy Strategy (Section 5.1) [(http://energy.novascotia.ca/sites/default/files/Energy-Strategy-2009.pdf)](http://energy.novascotia.ca/sites/default/files/Energy-Strategy-2009.pdf). - 22. Regardless of the reasons, the cost...

AI summary The Province of Nova Scotia argues that DSM affordability must account for rising rate pressures, advocating for cost discipline and rigorous evaluation of efficiency measures. It requests NSPI to provide detailed cost forecasts in future DSM applications to aid affordability assessments, citing Mr. Whalen's suggestion for three-year revenue requirement forecasts.

file 20 the level of detail for the DSM Plans it filed, as interim DSM administrator, for 2008-2011, 21 despite now asserting such detail is required for appropriate review and approval purposes. 22 23 To the specific alternate scenarios (...

AI summary NS Power presents alternate scenarios (a-d) not for approval but to demonstrate EfficiencyOne's potential energy savings. The scenarios are criticized for methodological flaws. NS Power's interim DSM plans for 2008-2011 lack detail, despite now asserting such detail is needed for review. Legislation cited includes the Electricity Efficiency and Conservation Restructuring Act and Public Utilities Act.

on the IRP assumptions. And are there any RES compliance risks associated with low-level DSM for the next three years? Mr. Blunden: No, we believe we have compliance for that period under control. I should mention the COMFIT energy that is...

AI summary The analysis confirms no system risks from low DSM levels, with RES compliance manageable via COMFIT's unaccounted margin. Operational advantages include minimal curtailment and economic energy purchases. The three-year contract allows revisiting DSM targets, avoiding long-term lock-in. NSPI's Plexos modeling supports lower DSM investment through 2030.

unt programs, not direct install programs (which include installation costs); costs for specialty LEDs are higher than $10; and the Custom program models incentives of 14 cents/kWh, not 17 cents/kWh. While this information is in evidence,...

AI summary EfficiencyOne defends its DSM incentive modeling, noting discrepancies between modeled and actual incentives, while NS Power and the Industrial Group argue insufficient evidence supports the proposed levels. EfficiencyOne emphasizes operational flexibility, whereas opponents highlight inconsistencies in TRC and investment levels across measures.