Topic:"Heat Pumps" in M11689

100 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Heat Pumps 2 3 Heat pump usage continues to grow in the province as more customers find heat pumps an 4 efficient way to heat and cool buildings as well a...

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report discusses the growing adoption of heat pumps in Nova Scotia, noting a 44% saturation rate in 2024 and continued uptake supported by grants and financing. The forecast model has been updated to a hybrid scenario, where some heat pump users retain non-electric backup heating systems, aligning with the Nova Scotia Power Electrification Strategy.

CTED 1 Figure 21 shows the forecast for residential installations and changes to saturation and 2 intensity over the forecast period. 3 4 Figure 21: Heat Pump Forecast 5

AI summary Figure 21 illustrates the forecast for residential heat pump installations and changes in saturation and intensity over the forecast period.

Evergreen IRP process, in NS Power Responses to Stakeholder 4 Comments: Final Evergreen IRP Modeling Results 1 NS Power stated: 0F 5 6 NS Power has committed to further assessment of the hybrid peak scenario as 7 part of the updated Acton...

AI summary Stakeholders question NS Power's assessment of the hybrid peak scenario in the Acton Plan, seeking details on analysis, cost implications, emissions impacts, and validation of the scenario's appropriateness for load forecasting.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to EOne Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-3: 2 3 Reference: NS Power 2024 Load Forecast, Page 31, Line(s) 3-5 4 5 “Heat pump usage continues to grow in the province...

AI summary NS Power's 2024 Load Forecast Report addresses changes in heat pump performance assumptions compared to 2023, including COP curves, capacity curves, and outdoor temperature cutoffs. NS Power maintains the assumption that heat pumps lock out below -7°C, relying on E3's RESHAPE COP curves for performance characterization.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to NSUARB Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-10: 2 3 Page 31 of the Report explains that the Residential Space Heating forecast assumes a 100% 4 heat pump saturation...

AI summary NSPI explains that the 100% heat pump saturation assumption by 2050 in the 2024 Load Forecast Report is based on federal and provincial net-zero goals, with heat pumps being the primary heating technology. NSPI notes no jurisdictions have achieved 100% electric heating saturation due to lack of full net-zero implementation.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to SBA Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-8: 2 3 Refer to page 33, Figure 20: Heat Pump Energy and Peak Comparison. Please describe the 4 main drivers of the substant...

AI summary NSPI responds to SBA requests regarding heat pump load forecasts. For IR-8, NSPI explains E3 used the RESHAPE model, which accounts for equipment efficiency and building characteristics, leading to divergent peak load estimates compared to the SAE model. For IR-9, NSPI directs to Synapse IR-7 part (i) for methodology and workpapers on heat pump forecasts.

1 (g) Refer to Figure 18 and 19. 2 3 (i) Please provide NSPI’s own commercial space heating saturation forecasts by 4 technology and fuel type, reflecting NSPI’s own commercial electric heating 5 share provided in Figure 19. For heat pumps...

AI summary The text requests detailed information on NSPI's commercial space heating saturation forecasts by technology and fuel type, including heat pump usage breakdowns. It also asks for clarification on the models used for peak load forecasting and the definition of the 'hybrid scenario'. Specific data on peak load impacts per customer type and technology are requested.

1 heating, whole-building heat pumps (that have no electric resistance backup), 2 heat pumps with electric resistance backup heating, and hybrid heat pumps. 3 4 (i) Refer to Figure 21 regarding heat pump forecast. 5 6 (i) Please provide th...

AI summary The text requests detailed data from NSPI regarding heat pump forecasts and assumptions for residential and commercial heating systems, including heating intensity, peak load impacts, and efficiency metrics from 2024 to 2034. It also requests an Excel spreadsheet with calculations and a commercial heat pump forecast table.

ng, heat pumps, and hybrid heat pumps. Date Filed: June 19, 2024 NSPI (Synapse) IR-7 Page 4 of 12 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONF...

AI summary The document is a non-confidential portion of NSPI's responses to Synapse's information requests related to the 2024 Load Forecast Report under NSUARB matter M11689. It includes data on load forecasting and energy efficiency programs such as heat pumps and hybrid heat pumps.

1 (f) 2 (i-ix) The E3 numbers in Figure 18 are provided in Attachment 1 (HP Stock tab). The 3 commercial numbers in the forecast are not produced on the same basis as the 4 residential numbers, the intensities are based on kWh per area rat...

AI summary The document discusses the methodology used in forecasting commercial energy usage, highlighting differences between residential and commercial forecasting approaches. It references the E3 model, heat pump saturation impacts, and the hybrid scenario, while noting limitations in forecasting peak values at the individual class or end-use level.

1 (i) 2 (i) Values in Figure 21 values can be found in 2024 LFR Attachment 1 as follows: 3 • Total Cumulative new installs are the sum of column B on the HP tab 4 • Percent install non-electric heat is column D on the HP tab 5 • Percent in...

AI summary The text provides detailed references to data sources and tabs within the 2024 LFR Attachment 1 and 2 for heating and cooling intensities, saturation percentages, and efficiency metrics, particularly for heat pumps and electric resistance heating. It explains how specific data points are derived and highlights the absence of equivalent data for commercial classes.

projected to increase by about 2.3 percent over the forecast period. This increase is largely the result of electrification, as NSPI projects growing adoption of heat pumps for heating and cooling 18 2024 Load Forecast, Appendix B, pages 2...

AI summary NSPI projects a 2.3% increase in load over the forecast period, driven by electrification, including heat pump adoption and electric water heating. Residential heat pump saturation is modeled to rise from 44% in 2024 to 64% by 2034, with 210,800 units expected by 2034. The analysis highlights NSPI's approach to residential and commercial heat pump modeling.

e for non-electric heating customers and roughly 32 percent are for electric heating customers. In comparison, the total number of heat pumps installed in 2023 were approximately 20,900 heat pumps. 22 For commercial customers, NSPI models...

AI summary The text discusses NSPI's 2024 load forecast, highlighting discrepancies in heat pump installation data (20,900 units in 2023) and modeling assumptions. NSPI's forecast assumes electric heating saturation at 70% by 2035 but does not explicitly account for hybrid heating systems, leading to a -68 MW adjustment in 2034. Synapse Energy Economics critiques the unclear methodology behind this adjustment.

nd response for water heaters has concluded.24 NSPI indicates that the data collected from these pilots will be used to inform future load forecasts. While Synapse 30 2024 Load Forecast, page 35. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Evidence Reg...

AI summary The document discusses NSPI's 2024 load forecast, noting the exclusion of heat pump water heaters despite their potential energy savings and peak load reduction. Synapse Energy Economics recommends modeling them as a separate end-use technology due to projected electric water heater growth and energy efficiency benefits. Electric vehicles are also identified as a separate load growth area.

16. We ask NSPI to investigate what can be done with time-of-use rates and other measures to mitigate the peak load increases for all these components, especially for the C&I sectors. 17. NSPI should conduct an analysis of portfolio ELCC a...

AI summary The text outlines recommendations for NSPI to investigate time-of-use rates, analyze portfolio ELCC, evaluate technologies like thermal storage and heat pumps, quantify electrification impacts, develop scenarios for uncertain resource adoption, and conduct sensitivity analyses to mitigate projected peak load increases.

ervice customers? Are they implementing DSM measures to reduce load? Adding solar generation? Entering into RTR contracts? Might all this reduce their loads to some degree? (page 25) Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Evidence Regarding Nova S...

AI summary The text presents a series of questions and requests directed at Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) regarding load forecasting, demand-side management (DSM) program savings, industrial electrification, real-time rates, and the impacts of renewable energy contracts (RTR) and technologies like heat pumps and thermal storage.

9 c. Refer to Figure 17. Please provide for all the forecast years: 10 1. Total number of residential customers, 11 2. Number of customers for HP, Hybrid, Resistance, Wood, and Fossil Fuel heating 12 systems as indicated in Figure 17. 13 3...

AI summary The document requests detailed data on residential and commercial heating technologies, including heat pump adoption rates, customer segmentation, and forecasted numbers. Specific focus is on heat pump saturation (44% in 2024), customer class breakdowns, and alignment with figures 17 and 18.

Number of customers for HP, Hybrid, Resistance, and Fossil Fuel heating systems 34 as indicated in Figure 18. 35 4. Number of customers using heat pumps as the sole technology

AI summary The text references customer numbers for various heating systems (heat pumps, hybrid, resistance, fossil fuel) and highlights heat pumps as the sole technology used by a subset of customers, with data visualized in Figure 18.

Date Filed: May 29, 2024 Synapse (NSPI) Page 5 of 24 1 5. Number of customers using heat pumps as primary heating with supplemental 2 resistance heating, 3 6. Number of customers using hybrid heat pumps with a breakdown of customers by 4 t...

AI summary The document requests detailed data on customer heating technology usage (heat pumps, oil, gas, propane) and clarifications on NSPI's commercial heating forecasts and modeling approaches, including hybrid scenario definitions and peak load impact calculations for 2030/2035.

ial customer and per 24 commercial customer by the following technology type: electric resistance heating, 25 whole-building heat pumps (that have no electric resistance backup), heat pumps 26 with electric resistance backup heating, and h...

AI summary The document requests detailed data from NSPI on heat pump forecasts, heating intensity estimates, peak load impacts, and efficiency assumptions for residential and commercial customers through 2035. It references Figure 21 and an Excel spreadsheet for calculations, focusing on technology-specific impacts.

ciencies (in terms of coefficient of 8 performance) assumed for new residential heat pumps from 2024 through 2034. 9 e. Please provide a table of NSPI’s heat pump forecast for commercial heat pumps, 10 equivalent to Figure 21. 11 f. Please...

AI summary The text contains detailed requests for data on NSPI's heat pump and water heater projections, including efficiency metrics, heating intensity estimates, and peak load impacts for residential and commercial systems from 2024 to 2034. It also seeks clarification on methodology for adjusting heat pump intensity calculations based on weather dependencies.

Please clarify if the impact of reactive power on load has been studied. 29 b) If so, please provide results and workpapers; if not please explain why such 30 analysis was not completed. M11689 – SBA IRs –May 29, 2024 Page 2 of 3 1 REQUEST...

AI summary The document contains multiple requests for clarification on technical and analytical studies related to reactive power, NZER code impacts, peak demand drivers, heat pump energy comparisons, and EV forecasts. It references the Smart Grid Nova Scotia (SGNS) Project and includes the matter number M11689.

1 Request IR-01: 2 Reference: NS Power 2024 Load Forecast, Page 31, Line(s) 11-18 3 “As part of the updates for 2024, the E3 scenario used in the forecast has been updated to the 4 hybrid scenario, where a portion of customers adopting hea...

AI summary The document requests clarification on NS Power's 2024 load forecast assumptions regarding hybrid heat pump scenarios and their assessment of hybrid peak mitigation strategies. It references the Electrification Strategy Report and asks about completed analyses and cost implications of retaining non-electric backup systems.

Forecast Report. Synapse Synapse noted NS Power’s continued improvement to the Load Forecast Report. However, Synapse also remarked on several aspects, suggesting revisions. These included: • modeling heat-pump-based hot water heating, exa...

AI summary Synapse acknowledges NS Power's improvements to the Load Forecast Report but recommends revisions to better model heat pumps, DSM adjustments, solar impacts, EV adoption, electrification effects, and peak forecasting methodologies. Key areas include hybrid heating models, sensitivity analyses, and validating new home construction as a proxy for customer growth.