Topic:"Infrastructure Planning" in M11689

REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board IN THE MATTER OF The Public Utilities Act, R.S.N.S. 1989, c.380, as amended 2024 Load Forecast Report April 30, 2024 REDACTED REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATI...

AI summary The document is a 2024 Load Forecast Report prepared under the Public Utilities Act, R.S.N.S. 1989, c.380. It includes sections on executive summary, introduction, forecasting approach, and discussion of major inputs. The report is part of a regulatory proceeding involving Nova Scotia's utility and review board.

1 NSUARB Hearing Order, 2023 Load Forecast Report (M11108), May 2, 2023. 2 Nova Scotia Power Inc. 2023 Load Forecast Report, UARB Decision, November 7, 2023, page 6 (M11108). DATE: April 30, 2024 Page 10 of 100 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFOR...

AI summary The document references the 2023 Load Forecast Report by NS Power, with a UARB decision dated November 7, 2023 (M11108). The 2024 Load Forecast Report is redacted, indicating confidential information has been removed.

1 In addition to the above directives, the Board encourages NS Power to 2 include information on each of the following in future load forecasts: 3 4 • Evaluate the elasticity used in the SAE model with the elasticity 5 estimation from the...

AI summary The NSUARB directs NS Power to enhance load forecasts by evaluating model elasticity, re-evaluating residential input variables, incorporating demographic factors, aligning economic data with major banks, verifying EV adoption rates against Statistics Canada data, and maintaining communication with large infrastructure project customers to ensure system adequacy.

2022 unexplained variance and 2 report on its findings in the 2024 Load Forecast Report. 3 2F 3 4 In accordance with the Board’s direction, NS Power revised and enhanced the 2024 Load 5 Forecast in the following manner: 6 7 • The EV foreca...

AI summary NS Power revised the 2024 Load Forecast Report per the Board's direction, updating EV forecasts, integrating hybrid electrification scenarios, summarizing Smart Grid and Demand Response projects, discussing economic inputs, hydrogen production impacts, and analyzing residential forecast variances.

ONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 13: Residential Economic Drivers 2

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report includes a redacted figure (Figure 13) focusing on residential economic drivers, though specific details are confidential and removed from the text.

Page 54 of 100 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report provides an analysis of projected electricity demand, though key details have been redacted due to confidentiality. The report is part of a regulatory proceeding and likely includes forecasts related to load management and resource planning.

1 10.0 PEAK DEMAND 2 3 The total system peak is defined as the highest single hourly average demand experienced 4 in a year. It includes both firm and interruptible loads. Due to the weather-sensitive load 5 component in Nova Scotia, the t...

AI summary The document defines total system peak demand as the highest hourly average demand in a year, typically occurring between December and February. NS Power uses an end-use approach to forecast peak demand, incorporating factors like heating, cooling, and EV impact. Demand response programs and hybrid heating scenarios are also considered in the 2024 Load Forecast.

Page 95 of 100 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 system peak (the sum of all customer classes) and then AMI informed load factors are used 2 to disaggregate it into all the classes. In the fut...

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report discusses the use of AMI for more accurate load forecasting, including disaggregation of system peak into customer classes, regional forecasting, and testing end-use sensitivities. It also highlights the potential for electrification to impact different regions differently and the importance of updating end-use assumptions.

CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 71: System Peak Sensitivity 2 3 4 This analysis provides a potential range of outcomes for the 2024 Load Forecast. Energy 5 is most sensitive to economics over t...

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report outlines the sensitivity of energy demand to economic and temperature factors, highlighting the variability of peak load. It compares the 2023 and 2024 forecasts with the Evergreen IRP cases, noting differences in load served through the RTR market and initial peak expectations. The report also mentions future policy changes related to decarbonization targets.

Page 99 of 100 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 10-year timeframe of this forecast, but the scenario developed represents the likely 2 trajectories of these technologies. 3 4 Figure 72: 2022...

AI summary The document presents the 2024 Load Forecast Report, including comparisons of different Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) scenarios such as Evergreen IRP E1, E2, and E3, and includes forecast values for energy and peak demand for various years.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to CA Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-3: 2 3 Reference: Board Decision, Matter No. M11307, noting that, “The Consumer Advocate, E1 4 and Eastward Energy supported...

AI summary NSPI responds to an information request about assessing the Hybrid Peak Mitigation electrification profile, noting discussions with the Province of Nova Scotia and the need for a multi-stakeholder study process. The response emphasizes ongoing coordination with the Province and highlights the importance of continuing the Evergreen IRP process ahead of the 2030 deadline.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to CA Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-7: 2 3 Reference: Exhibit N-5, CA RIR-2(b), M11458; Exhibit N-9, NSUARB RIR-72(g), M11458. 4 Exhibit N-2, CA RIR-4, M11108; a...

AI summary NSPI confirms it does not track housing unit data by type or service level, outlines plans to use advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) for modeling, and explains considerations for EV charging and solar generation in distribution planning. Additional data is required before extrapolating SGNS project impacts.

1 (b) Distribution software is not used to prepare the load forecast. Updates to the distribution 2 planning process are being discussed in the ongoing Cost of Service Study. AMI data is 3 currently being used in CYME distribution analysis...

AI summary The text discusses load forecasting practices, noting that AMI data is used in CYME software for capacity planning and generator impact studies, while pilot projects like Smart Grid Nova Scotia are not typically required for load forecasting. Electrification of heating and EVs is modeled, but more detailed data is needed for granular forecasts. Solar generation is already included in the forecast.

1 (a) The transformer sizing charts provided in the NS Power Overhead Standards manual are 2 based on the quantity and size of the loads being supplied by the transformer. The different 3 types of loads covered by the transformer sizing ch...

AI summary NS Power uses transformer sizing charts based on load types (domestic, ETS, EV chargers, special loads) and formulas to calculate estimated loads. Field reviews and meter checks are conducted, with re-evaluation upon service upgrade requests.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to CA Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 𝑁𝑁𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 = 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 2 𝑁𝑁𝐸𝐸𝑉𝑉2 = 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 2 𝐶𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 3 𝑁𝑁𝐸...

AI summary The document outlines NSPI's methodology for transformer sizing, including formulas for calculating total kVA using overload factors and load components. It also describes NSPI's inventory management practices for transformers, emphasizing stock availability and lead-time requirements for commercial services.

Please identify what additional data and analysis is required by NS Power before 23 extrapolating the results from its TVP pilot to province-wide estimated impacts, if 24 any. 25 Date Filed: June 19, 2024 NSPI (CA) IR-9 Page 1 of 3 2024 Lo...

AI summary The NSUARB requests NSPI to identify additional data required before extrapolating results from its TVP pilot to province-wide impacts, as part of the 2024 Load Forecast Report (M11689).

l in progress 12 when the forecast was developed; however, it is assumed that the additional new housing units 13 will fall within the underlying uncertainty of the housing completion forecast. Date Filed: June 19, 2024 NSPI (NSUARB) IR-6...

AI summary NSPI submitted responses to NSUARB information requests regarding the 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689), noting assumptions about new housing units falling within the forecast's uncertainty range. The document highlights forecasting methodology and infrastructure planning considerations.

re not explicitly included in the forecast. 19 20 (c) SGNS is a pilot project used to evaluate specific scenarios related to grid control and is not 21 a direct input to the forecast. Date Filed: June 19, 2024 NSPI (SBA) IR-2 Page 1 of 1 2...

AI summary NSPI responded to an information request regarding probabilistic analysis of DER penetration in the 2024 Load Forecast Report, stating no such analysis was conducted but referencing a 2022 Evergreen IRP sensitivity study with high DER scenarios. The response directs to the 2022 IRP document library for details.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to SBA Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-4: 2 3 (a) Please confirm if the impact of energy efficiency under different DER penetration 4 scenarios (low, medium, and h...

AI summary NSPI confirmed in its response to SBA Information Request IR-4 that energy efficiency and DER penetration scenarios were analyzed in the 2022 Evergreen IRP, including three DSM program levels and a high DER sensitivity case. Results are available via a public document library link.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

f housing completions was compared with actual historic customer 29 additions, and the relationship was shown to be highly correlated, therefore no alternatives 30 were considered. Date Filed: June 19, 2024 NSPI (Synapse) IR-5 Page 2 of 4...

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) by NSPI indicates a strong correlation between housing completions and customer additions, leading to the conclusion that no alternative approaches were necessary. NSPI's responses to Synapse's information requests focus on load forecasting and integrated resource planning.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

18.1 40.2 17.0 5.4 3.2 2029 20,159 14,322 729 428 35,639 33,586 150 144 33.7 0.95 32 63.7 61 71.4 23.8 54.8 22.3 7.1 4.3 2030 26,451 18,517 900 550 46,419 44,365 195 189 43.9 0.94 42 82.7 80 93.3 31.1 70.1 29.1 9.3 5.5 2031 35,961 24,858 1...

AI summary The text presents a series of numerical data points spanning from 2029 to 2034, likely related to energy forecasting or planning. It includes values for various metrics, but the content is partially redacted, indicating the presence of confidential information. The mention of the '2024 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-9' suggests a connection to energy load forecasting.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-14: 2 3 Introduction (Section 2.0, citing to Board Decision concerning 2023 Load Forecast). Please 4 explain in detail h...

AI summary NSPI responds to Synapse Information Requests regarding the 2024 Load Forecast Report, addressing the Board's direction to include the IRP, SGNS, AMI, and TVP outcomes; reviewing carbon emission reduction assumptions; and assessing historical load data compared to survey results. Citations are provided for each section in the report.

al targets (page 36). 27 28 (c) The estimates for large customer growth based on survey results was revised and is 29 discussed in Section 6.3 (pages 68-69) and Section 7.3 (page 74). Date Filed: June 19, 2024 NSPI (Synapse) IR-14 Page 1 o...

AI summary NSPI is not considering multiple load forecasts, stating that the load forecast provides the most likely outcome for planning purposes, while the IRP examines multiple potential paths. The response references Appendix D and Figure 72 for sensitivity analysis and comparison with IRP scenarios.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

1 Request IR-16: 2 3 Introduction (Section 2.0, citing to Board Decision concerning 2023 Load Forecast). Please 4 describe in detail any analyses conducted and results obtained in conducting the following, 5 which the Board encouraged NSPI...

AI summary The document requests NSPI to evaluate the elasticity in the SAE model using data from the TVP Pilot EM&V in matter M11267 and assess the robustness of the model. It also asks for an evaluation of input variables in the residential model, including housing completions, household size, economic inputs, EV adoption rates, and infrastructure projects.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-18: 2 3 Demand Side Management (Section 4.6, pp 54-56). 4 5 (a) Please provide the source data for the DSM values used i...

AI summary NSPI responds to Synapse's information requests regarding the 2024 Load Forecast Report, specifically addressing Demand Side Management (DSM) values and their sources, including references to past filings and studies.

N-1 in M08929 (NS Power’s IRP and M08059 Generation 9 Utilization and Optimization), August 14, 2019. The four DSM scenarios are shown in the 10 following graph from the report: Date Filed: June 19, 2024 NSPI (Synapse) IR-18 Page 2 of 3 RE...

AI summary The text references a 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) and NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. It mentions the base case in the IRP forecast being aligned with current DSM levels, and refers to data in Attachment 4 of the 2024 LFR report.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-35: 2 3 Sensitivity Analysis (Section 11, 2020 IRP Comparison, pp 97-98) 4 5 (a) Please provide information about how th...

AI summary NSPI responds to Synapse's request regarding the impact of the evergreen IRP analysis on future loads. While the analysis does not directly affect load, it may identify long-term outcomes requiring policy or program support, such as addressing increasing peak demand through scenarios like hybrid space heating.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) details NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. The non-confidential document pertains to energy planning and forecasting, reflecting NSPI's engagement with regulatory processes and data transparency requirements.

s several areas in which load forecast methods could be improved. 8 Finally, I will discuss inconsistencies between the load forecast and the distribution system 9 planning forecast. 10 Q: Please summarize your recommendations. 11 A: I hav...

AI summary The expert outlines six recommendations to improve load forecasting, including updating residential heating intensity models, incorporating weather trends, convening a hearing on winter heating demand, adjusting EV charging forecasts, and aligning load forecasts with distribution planning. These aim to enhance forecast accuracy and address systemic inconsistencies.

– would require upgrades to existing fuel 23 delivery systems to provide sufficient fuel for a larger number of NS Power’s customers, and 24 raise issues related to long-term compliance with federal carbon emissions regulations. 25 If the...

AI summary NS Power faces challenges in upgrading fuel delivery systems to meet growing customer demand, potentially requiring reliance on natural gas or fuel oil. However, existing natural gas infrastructure constraints may limit this option. NS Power's strategy emphasizes using natural gas for peak demand in combination with other resources without expanding pipeline capacity, citing low capacity factors for new gas units.

electric vehicle owners. Considering the impact of managed charging, which 7 further reduces the contribution to peak, a more reasonable forecast assumption is 0.45 8 kW/vehicle. 9 Q: What would be the impact of adjusting to your proposed...

AI summary NS Power estimates adjusting EV peak demand from 0.9 kW to 0.45 kW/vehicle would reduce 2033 peak demand by 120 MW (from 240 MW to 120 MW). This adjustment could be further reduced through managed charging programs. The correction would significantly impact resource planning, offsetting load forecast increases from removing peak savings attributed to the time-varying pricing pilot.

es. NS Power has also updated its transformer sizing charts 27 to account for increased load from heat pumps and EVs.29 28 Exhibit N-2, CA RIR-4. 29 Exhibit N-2, CA RIR-8(b). Evidence of John D. Wilson  Matter No. M11689  July 11, 2024 P...

AI summary NS Power's transformer sizing methods for EVs and heat pumps are criticized for overestimating demand and using inconsistent load factors compared to other domestic services. The testimony highlights a lack of consideration for solar systems under 100 kW in distribution planning.

ity doesn’t become a bottleneck to electrification,” and 17 further to “Fully incorporate electrification strategy findings … into utility planning 18 models.”40 More specifically, 19 E3 recommends that Nova Scotia Power proactively identi...

AI summary The text criticizes Nova Scotia Power for not adequately incorporating electrification impacts into its distribution planning, leading to oversized transformers and underestimation of new residential customers. It highlights a contradiction between distribution planning forecasts and resource planning activities regarding electrification load from EVs and home electrification.

ation load from EV chargers and 6 home electrification, while building generation and transmission for new customers who 7 will not materialize. Both forecasts can’t be best practices. 8 Q: What do you recommend? 9 A: I recommend that the...

AI summary Testimony recommends revising NS Power's load and distribution forecasts to ensure consistency in assumptions about customer growth and electrification. The Board is urged to mandate an interim report by fall 2024, with updates integrated into the 2025 ACE Plan.

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 3 “Analysis of Solar Capacity Equivalent Values for Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress Systems,” prepared for and filed by Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, Natural Resources Defense...

AI summary The text lists publications and reports by Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE) and collaborators on solar capacity, energy efficiency, decarbonization, and integrated resource planning in the Southeastern U.S. and Nova Scotia. Key references include a 2021 review of Nova Scotia Power’s Integrated Resource Plan for the Nova Scotia Consumer Advocate.

eview of Nova Scotia Power’s 2020 Integrated Resource Plan,” prepared for the Nova Scotia Consumer Advocate, NSUARB Matter No. M08059, with Paul Chernick, January 2021. “Implementing All-Source Procurement in the Carolinas,” prepared for N...

AI summary The text lists various reports and studies prepared by organizations and individuals for regulatory proceedings, focusing on energy and utility matters. Key entities include Nova Scotia Power, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE), and others, with topics spanning integrated resource plans, procurement practices, and generator interconnection processes.

i Power Company 2024 Integrated Resource Plan,” with Michael Goggin, Grid Strategies LLC, prepared for Southern Renewable Energy Association, for submission in MPSC Docket No. 2019-UA-231, June 2024. SELECTED PRESENTATIONS “Clean Energy So...

AI summary The text lists presentations by Michael Goggin on energy efficiency, renewable energy, and integrated resource planning, involving organizations like Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE) and Grid Strategies LLC. Key topics include energy efficiency, renewable energy, and IRP, with a cross-reference to MPSC Docket No. 2019-UA-231.

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 5 “Views on TVA EE Modeling Approach,” presentation with Natalie Mims to Tennessee Valley Authority’s Evaluating Energy Efficiency in Utility Resource Planning Meeting, February 10, 2015. “The Cle...

AI summary John D. Wilson of Grid Strategies, LLC has presented on energy efficiency modeling, renewable energy reliability, carbon markets, solar capacity value, power plant procurement, resource adequacy, and energy transitions at various conferences and forums between 2015 and 2024.

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 6 Center. Cost recovery mechanism for energy efficiency, including shareholder incentive and lost revenue adjustment mechanism. 2009 North Carolina NCUC Docket No. E-7, Sub 831, direct testimony o...

AI summary John D. Wilson of Grid Strategies, LLC testified in multiple regulatory proceedings across North Carolina, Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia from 2009-2010, focusing on energy efficiency cost recovery mechanisms, shareholder incentives, lost revenue adjustments, and adequacy of integrated resource plans in considering energy efficiency.

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 7 including resource mix, sensitivity analysis, alternative supply and demand side options, cost escalation, uncertainty of nuclear and economic impact modeling. 2013 Georgia PSC Docket No. 36498,...

AI summary John D. Wilson of Grid Strategies, LLC provided expert testimony in multiple U.S. regulatory proceedings from 2013–2016, focusing on energy efficiency adequacy, renewable energy integration, and system reliability. Testimonies addressed Georgia Power’s integrated resource plans, South Carolina’s capacity needs, and Florida’s reserve margin requirements, often representing the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy.

of renewable energy in Georgia Power’s 2016 integrated resource plan, including portfolio diversity, operational and implementation risk, analysis of project-specific costs and benefits (including location and technology considerations), a...

AI summary The text details testimony in Georgia Power's 2016 and 2019 integrated resource plans (IRP) and demand-side management (DSM) plans, focusing on renewable energy adequacy, plant retirements, and procurement processes. In Nova Scotia, testimony addressed the Smart Grid project's cost classification, decommissioning, and capital expenditure plans, including hydroelectric decommissioning considerations.

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 12 of utility replacement portfolio and membership in PJM. Definition of dispatchable electric generating capacity. Use of dispatch practices including full flexibility operating mode for renewabl...

AI summary John D. Wilson of Grid Strategies, LLC provides testimony in Nova Scotia UARB matters and Washington UTC dockets, addressing load forecasting methods, DSM adjustments, capital expenditure plans, and smart grid initiatives. Topics include electrification forecasts, resource adequacy, and reliability investments.

arket. In addition, adjustments made to reflect newly introduced hybrid heating assumptions also reduce the total net system requirement. We discuss several factors in more detail in this evidence.

AI summary Adjustments to hybrid heating assumptions in the analysis reduce the total net system requirement, with further details provided in the evidence. The focus is on system planning implications of these adjustments.

tial sales estimate. Both these values are presented in the same row of the “Residential Load – Post Regression” table in NSPI’s Appendix B and should be calculated consistently or labeled clearly. 10 The residential statistical model also...

AI summary The text discusses NSPI's residential load forecasting models, including adjustments for post-pandemic work-from-home trends and regression coefficients for the 2023 and 2024 forecasts. It notes a decline in the pandemic's impact on residential load, with projected effects of 150 GWh (2023) and 100 GWh (2024). Commercial and industrial models use different economic indicators, with industrial models using longer regression timescales for better statistics.

ilding size. The major change drivers for XHeat are electric (resistance) heat, heat pumps, and, to a lesser extent, secondary heat. The net change over the forecast period is a 12.5 percent increase. The XCool variable is the product of t...

AI summary The document details load forecast variables XHeat, XCool, and XOther, driven by factors like heating technologies, cooling saturation, and appliance efficiency. XHeat increases 12.5%, XCool surges 57.8% due to heat pump cooling, while XOther declines 2.1% from reduced lighting and TV use. Residential energy use is 45% heating, 4% cooling, 53% other, with existing customers seeing 5.6% higher heating loads over the forecast period.

there are additional unreported savings there. It is important to note in particular two potential issues with the accuracy of NSPI’s model in estimating energy and peak load impacts from heat pumps: • Heating intensities have increased by...

AI summary The text highlights two issues with NSPI’s model for estimating heat pump impacts: a 39% increase in heating intensities due to unallocated variance adjustments and discrepancies in peak load calculations compared to E3’s data. These inaccuracies may affect energy and load forecasts.

• NSPI’s approach to apply an ELCC value specific to demand response does not consider any interactive effects with other resources in terms of its peak load impacts. A portfolio wide ELCC of various resources can be greater than a simple...

AI summary The text critiques NSPI's approach to evaluating the Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC) of demand response, arguing that it should consider interactive effects with other resources like solar PV, wind, and battery storage. It references a 2020 E3 report and a 2023 Board decision (M11307) to emphasize the need for a portfolio-level ELCC analysis. The text also highlights the need to update peak load forecasts due to electrification and incorporate demand response resources into modeling.

cantly to peak growth. Recommendations and Considerations We ask NSPI to quantify specifically the electrification and EV impacts for the commercial sector and to consider how this can be moderated. Overall, the peak forecast seems plausib...

AI summary The text discusses concerns regarding peak growth forecasts, emphasizing the need for NSPI to quantify electrification and EV impacts in the commercial sector and to explore mitigation strategies. The forecast is deemed plausible but requires refinement and further discussion on underlying factors.

ting it into the existing model or building a new or modified version to make use of this 22 data. 4 Synapse Evidence, 2024 Load Forecast Report (M11689), July 11, 2024, page 33. DATE FILED: September 6, 2024 Page 5 of 25 2024 Load Forecas...

AI summary Synapse, the Consumer Advocate (CA), and the Small Business Advocate (SBA) recommend exploring increased demand-side management (DSM) levels in future load forecasts. NS Power responds by referencing its Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process, noting that the Base DSM profile was used in scenarios showing the lowest cost to customers.

, page 33. 28 Synapse Evidence, 2024 Load Forecast Report (M11689), July 11, 2024, page 33. 29 Synapse Evidence, 2024 Load Forecast Report (M11689), July 11, 2024, page 33. DATE FILED: September 6, 2024 Page 16 of 25 2024 Load Forecast Rep...

AI summary NS Power responds to Synapse's 2024 Load Forecast Report, acknowledging sensitivity analyses for peak load projections and referencing ongoing initiatives like SGNS, IRP, and TVP. The Consumer Advocate recommends refining residential heating intensity adjustments using AMI data for better accuracy.

Page 17 of 25 2024 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal Evidence Non-Confidential 1 understanding of the cause of the variance between forecast and actual peak 2 energy. 31 3 4 NS Power Response: 5 6 Please refer to NS Power’s response to Synapse...

AI summary NS Power responds to recommendations regarding its residential SAE model, stating it already incorporates weather trends but agrees to investigate temperature and cloud cover. The Board is urged to hold a hearing on winter peak heating demand, involving NS Power, Eastward Energy, and propane/fuel oil stakeholders.

y, 23 with engagement and participation from multiple organizations including NS 24 Power, will provide a balanced assessment of the cost impacts of the hybrid 25 approach and provide the necessary information to conduct a more refined 26...

AI summary The document discusses the 2030 Clean Power Plan, which includes Load Management activities aligned with the Hybrid Peak program from the Evergreen IRP. NS Power's updated IRP Action Plan supports electrification strategy progression, with plans to conduct a Hybrid Peak study in 2024 in partnership with other organizations in Nova Scotia.

efault-source/irp/electrification-strategy-report-february-2-2024- engagement-session-material.pdf?sfvrsn=4d233583_1 -6- Rebuttal Evidence - NS Power NS Power addressed the concerns raised by the intervenors in its Rebuttal evidence. As a...

AI summary NS Power rebutted intervenor concerns by refusing to include pilot program data in forecasts until programs are comprehensive, committing to use AMI data for accuracy, and citing Bill 228's removal of EOne's joint DSM filing requirement. NS Power agreed to monitor EV adoption, solar generation, and hybrid heating models while shifting DSM planning responsibility to EOne.

Document: 313458 Date Filed: 05/28/24 UARB Page 3 1 Request IR-8: 2 Figure 16: Economic Forecast Comparison employs data from three of Canada’s Big 5 banks and 3 National Bank. Board Staff find this table provides a useful comparison again...

AI summary The document contains four requests (IR-8 to IR-11) questioning NS Power's economic forecast data sources, adoption rates for emission goals, heat pump saturation assumptions, and verification of installation figures. It seeks clarification on omitted bank data, employment projection adjustments, uptake rate timelines, and evidence for 100% heat pump saturation by 2050.

Date Filed: May 29, 2024 Synapse (NSPI) Page 3 of 24 1 term,” please discuss in detail any alternatives to housing completions considered and the 2 relative merits of each alternative considered. 3 d. Regarding Figure 16 and the historical...

AI summary The document outlines regulatory requests for clarifications on population projections, economic drivers for industrial/commercial sectors, inflation adjustments, and data sources for residential energy use. Questions focus on forecasting methodologies, economic scenario selection, and data validation.

Date Filed: May 29, 2024 Synapse (NSPI) Page 9 of 24 1 c. Please provide the source data and calculations for the values in Figure 27. 2 d. Please describe the meaning of the Load (GWh) column in Figure 27. Please elaborate 3 whether this...

AI summary The document outlines regulatory requests for detailed data and clarifications on load forecasting, new technologies (e.g., vehicle-to-grid), end-use intensities, and commercial/industrial growth from Nova Scotia Power Incorporated (NSPI). The Board seeks source data, assumptions, and explanations for figures and calculations in NSPI's filings.

ntial model more robust, considering the following: 24 o Given the continued population growth in Nova Scotia and ongoing housing 25 shortage, re-evaluate the use of housing completions for the near-term. 26 o Consider incorporating househ...

AI summary The text requests re-evaluation of housing completions, demographic factors, and economic data in energy models, along with updates to EV adoption rates and infrastructure communication. It also seeks clarification on price elasticity assumptions and data sources for electricity pricing models.

tify the specific reasons for the differences from the previous 33 forecast. 34 b. Please explain why the sales forecast appears to increase in its growth rate after about 35 2026. 36 Date Filed: May 29, 2024 Synapse (NSPI) Page 15 of 24 1...

AI summary The document outlines requests for clarification on forecast discrepancies, industrial load changes, municipal energy needs, system losses, and net system requirements from Nova Scotia Power Incorporated (NSPI), emphasizing the need for detailed explanations and data verification.

ctions do not increase after 2029 despite NSPI’s load forecast 26 assumes a growing share of electrification on space and water heating end uses? 27 g. Please provide the total number of (a) customers with electric space heating and 28 (b)...

AI summary The text requests detailed information from NSPI regarding load forecasts, electrification trends, customer data, and demand reduction estimates in the context of the 2022 Evergreen IRP. It specifically inquires about assumptions, data by sector, and peak load savings assumptions.

ease explain the 32 difference and why they are different. 33 i. How much peak load savings does the 2022 Evergreen IRP assume for demand 34 response?

AI summary The text contains questions regarding the difference between two unspecified items and the assumed peak load savings for demand response in the 2022 Evergreen IRP.

n Requests to Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) In the Matter of Nova Scotia Power Incorporated’s 2024 Load Forecast Report – M11689 NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The document outlines a request to Nova Scotia Power Inc. regarding their 2024 Load Forecast Report, referencing matter number M11689.

quests to Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) In the Matter of Nova Scotia Power Incorporated’s 2024 Load Forecast Report – M11689 NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 oil system over the long-term? Please provide calculation details and analysis of the impac...

AI summary Questions are posed to NS Power regarding its 2024 Load Forecast Report, focusing on hybrid oil system costs, economy-wide emissions impacts, heat pump performance changes (COP curves, capacity curves, temperature cut-off), and assumptions about heat pump sizing. NS Power is asked to justify scenario appropriateness and clarify methodological updates.

Date Filed: May 29, 2024 CA (NS Power) Page 4 of 6 1 Request IR-7: 2 3 Reference: Exhibit N-5, CA RIR-2(b), M11458; Exhibit N-9, NSUARB RIR-72(g), M11458. 4 Exhibit N-2, CA RIR-4, M11108; and Exhibit N-1, 2024 Load Forecast Report, pp. 32-...

AI summary The document contains regulatory requests (IR-7 and IR-8) seeking clarification on NS Power's data gaps regarding housing units, AMI integration for forecasting, distribution planning for EV/solar growth, and data requirements for extrapolating SGNS Project results. References to exhibits, load forecasts, and transformer sizing charts are included.

Load Forecast Report, M11108, p. 29 21. 30 31 (a) Please provide the factors used to determine transformer sizing, in the transformer 32 sizing charts and in practice for specific transformers. 33 34 (b) Please provide the formula or metho...

AI summary The text requests detailed information on transformer sizing methodologies, including factors, formulas, and data sources for both general charts and specific transformer decisions, with emphasis on customer numbers, panel sizes, and special loads like EVs.

dentifying the sources of 40 data for the relevant factors, including but not limited to the number of customers 41 connected, panel sizes, and special loads such as EVs. 42 Date Filed: May 29, 2024 CA (NS Power) Page 5 of 6 1 (d) Are tran...

AI summary The text outlines regulatory inquiries into NSP's data practices for transformer sizing, time-varying pricing (TVP) impact assessments, and AMI technology implementation timelines. Requests focus on quantifying TVP's system peak reduction, forecasting AMI benefits, and analyzing peak demand patterns from winter 2023-2024.

-5- load by 943 watts in winter 2022-23; therefore, reaching its target is unlikely. Second, Mr. Willson suggested that the EV charging forecast should use 0.45 kW/vehicle instead of 0.9 kW/vehicle. Mr. Wilson compared the 2024 Load Foreca...

AI summary The text discusses discrepancies in NS Power's load forecasts, electrification strategy recommendations, and stakeholder feedback. Mr. Wilson highlights inconsistencies in customer growth assumptions and electrification planning, while the SBA urges incorporating Smart Grid Nova Scotia findings and addressing net-zero building codes. Synapse acknowledges improvements but suggests revisions to the Load Forecast Report.