N-12022 Load Forecast Report - Redacted
17 passages
1 Figure 29: PV Impact to Energy (cumulative) .............................................................................. 47 2 Figure 30: Potential Peak Impacts from Batteries ...............................................................
AI summary This document lists figures from a regulatory proceeding, covering topics such as PV energy impact, battery potential, end-use intensities, electricity price forecasts, and demand-side management (DSM) savings. The figures include historical and projected data on residential, commercial, and industrial energy use, electrification trends, and sales components.
Page 13 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 • A discussion of the economic inputs to the residential model is provided in Section 2 4.3. 3 4 Summary of Stakeholder Consultations 5 6 On Apr...
AI summary NS Power conducted a stakeholder session on April 13, 2022, discussing updates to the 2022 Load Forecast, including impacts of COVID-19, EV forecasts, space heating, peak savings assumptions, and methodology from Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Stakeholders included NSUARB, Synapse, EfficiencyOne, and others.
1 4.0 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR INPUTS 2 3 4.1 Historical Class Sales and Energy Data 4 5 The Load Forecast is developed using NS Power’s “billed” sales rather than “accrued” 6 sales. Billed sales refer to the amount of energy billed to customer...
AI summary NS Power uses billed sales data for load forecasting, noting differences from accrued sales. Residential, commercial, and industrial forecasts use historical data from 2012–2021. The Renewable to Retail (RtR) market, established in 2016, allows licensed retailers to sell renewable energy, with a third-party application for Licensed Retail Supplier status pending NSUARB approval.
e 18 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 of energy sales through wind production, with 10 percent serving residential customers, 50 2 percent serving commercial customers, and 30 percent s...
AI summary The 2022 Load Forecast Report adjusts energy sales forecasts by subtracting wind production contributions (10% residential, 50% commercial, 30% industrial). Peak demand remains unchanged due to NS Power's obligation to serve full customer peaks. Weather impacts are analyzed using Heating Degree Days (HDD) and Cooling Degree Days (CDD) based on 10-year temperature data from Shearwater Airport, showing a warming trend.
27 Heat pump usage continues to grow in the province as more customers find heat pumps an 28 efficient way to heat and cool buildings as well as providing environmental and financial 29 benefits. According to the 2019 end use survey, 33 pe...
AI summary Heat pump usage is increasing in Nova Scotia, with 33% of customers using them for heating and 36% for cooling. The 2022 Load Forecast Report indicates that heat pump saturation is expected to reach 66% of homes by 2032 to meet carbon reduction targets. Commercial adoption follows a similar trajectory but will not reach 100% by 2050.
benefits to the system (see Section 10). Figure 25 shows the expected changes in 11 saturation and overall intensity over the forecast period. 12 13 Figure 25: Water Heater Forecast 14 Overall % Overall Intensity Year Saturation (kWh/house...
AI summary The text discusses the forecasted changes in water heater saturation and intensity over the forecast period, as well as the existing federal and provincial incentives for electric vehicles (EVs) in 2022. It provides data on saturation percentages and overall intensity in kWh per household from 2022 to 2032.
stallations, while 12 the actual number was 1,628, for a cumulative total of 4,022 (33 MW) by the end of the 13 year15. As of 2021, the average installed capacity is approximately 8.3 kW for residential 14 customers and 33 kW for non-resid...
AI summary The text discusses the installation of solar systems in Nova Scotia, noting that the actual number of installations by the end of the year was 1,628, with a cumulative total of 4,022 (33 MW). It also provides data on average installed capacity and estimated annual net metering solar generation.
of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 The number of solar installations is expected to increase in the coming years as a result of 2 initiatives such as Property Assessed Clean Energy Progra...
AI summary The 2022 Load Forecast Report discusses the expected increase in solar installations due to initiatives like Property Assessed Clean Energy Programs and provincial/federal rebates. It forecasts 170 MW of residential solar capacity by 2030 and 9.1 MW of commercial capacity by 2032, noting minimal impact on NS Power's peak demand due to non-coincident generation timing.
is shown in Figure 29. There is no forecast 16 reduction in NS Power peak as solar generation occurs at times non-coincident with NS 17 Power’s system peak (winter evenings). 18 16 https://www.efficiencyns.ca/residential/services-rebates/s...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of solar generation on NS Power's peak demand, noting that solar production occurs at times not coinciding with system peak demand during winter evenings. It also references a load forecast report and various studies and rebate programs related to residential solar initiatives.
Total New Year Load (GWh) Peak (MW) Installs 2022 2,610 -24 0 2023 3,947 -36 0 2024 5,351 -49 0 2025 6,825 -63 0 2026 8,505 -78 0 2027 10,420 -95 0 2028 12,604 -115 0 2029 15,093 -138 0 2030 17,931 -164 0 2031 20,724 -185 0 2032 23,069 -20...
AI summary The document discusses the projected load growth from 2022 to 2032, noting that distributed solar and battery storage combinations are not significantly assumed in the 2022 Load Forecast. It highlights the high cost of home batteries compared to gas generators, with the latter being more cost-effective for backup power. New pricing mechanisms like CPP and TOU may encourage battery use, but current costs remain high.
1 The impact of battery storage is being explored through the SGNS project, which will 2 include data collection from both stand-alone battery backup and PV/battery combinations. 3 EV smart charging and using EV batteries (vehicle-to-grid,...
AI summary The SGNS project is exploring the impact of battery storage, including stand-alone and PV/battery combinations, as well as EV smart charging and V2G technology. While V2G is still in development, some vehicles already offer the capability. Early data from the project is being used to estimate potential peak impact mitigation from battery uptake.
2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 33: Historical and Projected General Commercial End-Use Intensity 2 (kWh/m2) 3 4 5 Supporting data for General commercial end-use intensities is included in Attachment 3. 6 7 For the 2022 Load Fo...
AI summary The 2022 Load Forecast Report discusses historical and projected general commercial end-use intensity, noting increased heat pump penetration. It highlights growth in the commercial and industrial sectors due to electrification programs aimed at reducing emissions and energy usage.
REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 the values represent a slow ramp-up of uptake of these technologies that would allow 2 interim sales targets as well as the target of net zero emissions by 20...
AI summary The 2022 Load Forecast Report outlines projections for energy demand, considering factors such as the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and electrification scenarios. The report reflects updated federal EV sales targets and discusses potential changes in policy and regulation over the next decade.
REMOVED) REDACTED 2022 Load Forecast Report Appendix D Page 9 of 9 Appendix D – Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Figure D8: Relative Impact of Inputs 2023 Energy 2023 Peak 2032 Energy 2032 Peak Item (GWh (MW) (GWh) (MW) Included in Forecast D...
AI summary The document presents a sensitivity analysis from the 2022 Load Forecast Report, highlighting the impact of various factors such as demand-side management (DSM), solar PV, electric vehicles (EV), and battery storage on energy and peak load forecasts for 2023 and 2032. It includes different scenarios for EV adoption and the effects of weather and economic factors.
matics, Public Policy… San Francisco New York Boston Calgary E3 Clients Recent Related Projects • Nova Scotia Power Integrated Resource Planning Support & 300+ ongoing Electrification Strategy Report projects • Transportation Electrificati...
AI summary Electrification is identified as a key strategy for achieving Net-Zero in Nova Scotia, with near-complete electrification of transportation and most buildings being a 'safe bet' due to lower costs and commercial availability of supporting measures.
r-complete electrification of transportation and most buildings is a “safe bet” • Measures are lower cost and commercially available to support economy-wide decarbonization Electrification must be pursued in parallel to aggressive power...
AI summary The document discusses the electrification of transportation and buildings as a cost-effective strategy for decarbonization, supported by the PATHWAYS model. It also outlines the forecast for electric vehicle (EV) adoption, assuming 100% electric LDV sales by 2035 and a slow ramp-up to 30% by 2030.
r vehicle segment X, year Y driving statistics 5 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 6 of 8 Profiles for light-duty vehicle drivers were developed to inform future charging patterns The d...
AI summary The document outlines the development of light-duty vehicle (LDV) driving profiles based on National Household Travel Survey data, assuming representative driving patterns in Nova Scotia. These profiles are used to inform future EV charging patterns and are input into the EV Load Shape Tool. The average annual mileage is based on historical Nova Scotia VMT statistics.
N-3NSPI (E1) RIR-1 to RIR-12
9 passages
1 Request IR-2: 2 3 (a) Please describe all electrification research/pilots/programs NS Power is currently 4 planning and/or carrying out. 5 6 (b) Please provide all applicable project schedules, studies and/or reports that have been 7 dev...
AI summary NS Power outlines electrification initiatives, including residential heating solutions with heat pumps and commercial HVAC electrification programs. The response highlights contractor networks, on-bill financing, and a four-year Smart Grid Nova Scotia pilot (M10176) focused on advanced metering infrastructure and building decarbonization studies.
fication rebates and 27 funding programs to offset capital investment. 28 29 (iii) Smart Grid Nova Scotia (M10176): A four-year pilot program focused on studying 30 the effects posed by distributed energy resource (DER) penetration on the...
AI summary The text references the Smart Grid Nova Scotia pilot program (M10176), which studies the impact of distributed energy resources (DER) on the electrical grid, and NSPI's 10-Year Energy and Demand Forecast (NSUARB M10569). These initiatives address grid modernization and energy forecasting, supporting DER integration and long-term planning.
1 system and the opportunity to partner with customers to unlock new value offered 2 by DERs. While DER penetration is expected to continue growing in the province, 3 sharing the value offered by DERs with customers can make electric-based...
AI summary NS Power discusses initiatives to integrate DERs, expand EV infrastructure, and develop an electrification strategy with E3. Efforts focus on mitigating peak demand challenges and supporting municipal EV transitions, including Halifax's initiatives. The Electrification Strategy aligns with the IRP Action Plan.
of its ongoing IRP Action Plan. This work is being conducted in partnership with 23 Energy + Environmental Economics (E3) and incorporates five tasks, as described 24 in NS Power’s IRP Action Plan Update. The IRP Action Plan Update also pr...
AI summary NSPI is advancing its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan with E3, incorporating electrification load impacts into the 2022 Load Forecast Report. Work is targeted for completion in Q3 2022, with references to programs and materials filed with NSUARB.
development contained within the IRP Action Plan Update, April 2022 1, pages 24- 12 28. 1 IRP Action Plan Update Jan 2022 - April Update (nspower.ca) Date Filed: July 8, 2022 NSPI (E1) IR-2 Page 3 of 3 10 - Year Energy and Demand Forecast...
AI summary NSPI is developing an electrification strategy aligned with the 2020 IRP Action Plan and Nova Scotia's decarbonization goals. They are reviewing policies from other jurisdictions but have not yet determined their position on cost-effectiveness testing for electrification programs.
ill NS 24 Power follow to determine: 25 (i) the level of ratepayer intervention required; and 26 (ii) whether such intervention is beneficial to ratepayers? 27 Date Filed: July 8, 2022 NSPI (E1) IR-4 Page 1 of 2 10 - Year Energy and Demand...
AI summary NSPI responds to an information request regarding its 10-Year Energy and Demand Forecast, stating it has not conducted a market-wide analysis aligned with the Environmental Goals and Climate Change Reduction Act (EGCCRA). It explains modeling trajectories consider equipment lifetimes and resource constraints, intends to support electrification, and notes the process for considering measures is undetermined.
NSPI (E1) IR-4 Page 2 of 2 10 - Year Energy and Demand Forecast (2022 Load Forecast Report) (NSUARB M10569) NSPI Responses to EfficiencyOne Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-5: 2 3 Reference: NS Power 2022 Load Forecast, p...
AI summary NSPI responds to IR-5 by asserting heat pumps are the primary electrification technology due to efficiency, with the model focused on emission reduction targets rather than economic factors. Other heating technologies are excluded due to lower efficiency.
and Forecast (2022 Load Forecast Report) (NSUARB M10569) NSPI Responses to EfficiencyOne Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-12: 2 3 Reference: NS Power 2022 Load Forecast, Appendix E, page 3 of 8. 4 5 “Measures are lower co...
AI summary NSPI references the Canadian Climate Institute's 2021 report in response to EfficiencyOne's request about electrification and decarbonization measures. The report highlights technologies like building and transportation electrification as common to all net-zero pathways, emphasizing their role alongside energy efficiency.
ectric vehicles - will likely 29 be part of Canada’s net zero journey no matter which pathway is taken. 1 Canadas-Net-Zero-Future_FINAL-2.pdf (climatechoices.ca) Date Filed: July 8, 2022 NSPI (E1) IR-12 Page 1 of 2 10 - Year Energy and Dem...
AI summary The text highlights electric vehicles (EVs) as critical to Canada's net-zero goals, citing the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and Deep Decarbonization in Nova Scotia study. It references NSUARB M10569 (10-Year Energy Forecast) and NSUARB IR-07 for further analysis, emphasizing EVs' role in meeting 2030 emissions targets.
N-4NSPI (NSUARB) RIR-1 to RIR-36
4 passages
1 5. Vehicle Distance Traveled Data: 2 a. E3’s assumptions are based on Nova Scotia Data provided within NRCan 2009 3 Canadian Vehicle Survey Summary Report (2009 Canadian Vehicle Survey 4 Summary Report Natural Resources Canada (nrcan.gc....
AI summary The text outlines E3's assumptions for electric vehicle (EV) data, including vehicle distance traveled, battery efficiency, lifetime, charging infrastructure, and charger efficiency. These assumptions are based on data from sources like NRCan, Bloomberg NEF, NREL, CEC, and the US Department of Energy.
and Demand Forecast (2022 Load Forecast Report) (NSUARB M10569) NSPI Responses to NSUARB Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-7: 2 3 With reference to Section 4.4 End-Use Intensity Trends, page 36 of 98, the application state...
AI summary NSPI explains that its modeled heat pump adoption scenario aligns with federal and provincial net-zero goals, citing the E3 model's stock rollover approach, the Deep Decarbonization report, and Canada’s Net Zero Future study. The analysis emphasizes electrification's role in decarbonization and equipment lifecycle considerations.
23 These findings are consistent with other recent decarbonization modeling work, such as Canada’s 24 Net Zero Future5, which finds that near-complete electrification of transportation and most 1 https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environme...
AI summary The text discusses decarbonization modeling, emphasizing near-complete electrification of transportation and buildings as a low-cost, commercially viable strategy. It references Canada’s Net Zero Future report and Nova Scotia’s climate goals, citing NSPI’s 10-Year Energy and Demand Forecast (NSUARB M10569) as part of the analysis.
ergy and Demand Forecast (2022 Load Forecast Report) (NSUARB M10569) NSPI Responses to NSUARB Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-31: 2 3 With reference to Section 6.3 Large General Service, page 70 of 98, the application in...
AI summary NSPI responded to an NSUARB information request regarding the 2022 Load Forecast Report, explaining that solar adoption is considered in the commercial class but not in the large general service class due to a lack of specific information on self-production.
N-8Evidence of John Wilson, CA
15 passages
Matter No. M10569 In the Matter of Nova Scotia Power’s 2022 Load Forecast Report EVIDENCE OF JOHN D. WILSON ON BEHALF OF THE CONSUMER ADVOCATE Resource Insight, Inc. JULY 29, 2022 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Identification & Qualifications .........
AI summary The document is part of a regulatory proceeding (M10569) concerning Nova Scotia Power’s 2022 Load Forecast Report. John D. Wilson, representing the Consumer Advocate, provides evidence on load forecast improvements, electrification forecasts, and DSM adjustments (IR-5), referencing the 2021 proceeding.
ads and peak load events. If it is not already considered, 7 including wind speed in short-term load forecasts for operational dispatch planning could 8 also improve forecast accuracy. 9 Q: What are your recommendations with respect to the...
AI summary The text recommends improving load forecasting by prioritizing peak loads, using geographically differentiated data, multi-hour temperature averages, and wind speed. It also emphasizes stakeholder engagement in method development. The electrification forecast is deemed credible but requires refinement as policies and technologies evolve.
for customers whose heating sources were previously not all 19 electric, but there can also be an increase in load for customers whose heating sources were 20 previously all electric. Even though heat pumps are more efficient than the base...
AI summary Heat pump adoption may increase electricity load despite efficiency gains, as customers prioritize comfort. NS Power acknowledges the need for additional market interventions to achieve electrification goals in its load forecast but has not yet defined the process. References include load forecasts and a cold climate heat pump study.
Evidence of John D. Wilson • Matter No. M10569 • July 29, 2022 Page 10 1 determined.” 27 NS Power should identify the gap between existing electrification measures 2 and trends and those included in its load forecast as necessary to achiev...
AI summary John D. Wilson highlights gaps in NS Power's load forecasting models for electrification, noting insufficient alignment with federal/provincial policy goals. He recommends updating models to account for warming trends, electrification impacts, and more accurate EV charging demand projections during peak loads.
SUMMARY OF PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE 2019– Research Director, Resource Insight, Inc. Provides research, technical assist- Present ance, and expert testimony on electric- and gas-utility planning, economics, and regulation. Reviews electric-u...
AI summary Summary of professional experience in energy regulation, including roles in utility planning, rate design, conservation programs, renewable energy evaluation, and regulatory policy. Highlights work with organizations focused on energy efficiency, market data, and air pollution reduction.
John D. Wilson • Resource Insight, Incorporated Page 2 Office of Program Policy Analysis and Government Accountability, Review of the Expedited Permitting Process Coordinated by the Governor’s Office of Tourism, Trade, and Economic Develop...
AI summary The text lists environmental and energy-related reports from various organizations, focusing on air pollution, renewable energy policies, and regulatory compliance. References include studies on toxic emissions, permitting processes, and clean energy initiatives in regions like Florida, Houston, and North Carolina.
le Energy Development,” Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, March 2011. “Renewable Energy Standard Offer: A Tennessee Valley Authority Case Study,” Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, November 2012.
AI summary The text cites two documents from the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy discussing renewable energy development and a Tennessee Valley Authority case study on renewable energy standard offers. These references highlight examples of renewable energy initiatives and policy frameworks.
John D. Wilson • Resource Insight, Incorporated Page 3 “Increased Levels of Renewable Energy Will Be Compatible with Reliable Electric Service in the Southeast,” Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, November 2014. “Cleaner Energy for Southe...
AI summary The document lists multiple reports by the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy on renewable energy, solar capacity, energy efficiency, and decarbonization in the Southeastern US, highlighting their analysis of seasonal demand, solar equivalent values, and low-cost clean energy pathways.
Practices for All-Source Electric Generation Procurement,” with Mike O’Boyle, Ron Lehr, and Mark Detsky, Energy Innovation Policy & Technology LLC and Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, April 2020. PRESENTATIONS “Clean Energy Solutions fo...
AI summary The text lists presentations on energy topics by Mike O’Boyle, Ron Lehr, Mark Detsky, and affiliated organizations, including discussions on clean energy solutions, utility-scale renewables, and energy efficiency regulation. Presentations date back to 2008 and involve entities like Southern Alliance for Clean Energy and Energy Innovation Policy & Technology LLC.
John D. Wilson • Resource Insight, Incorporated Page 4 “Building the Energy Efficiency Resource for the TVA Region,” presentation on behalf of Southern Alliance for Clean Energy to the Tennessee Valley Authority Integrated Resource Plannin...
AI summary John D. Wilson from Resource Insight, Incorporated has participated in numerous energy efficiency and policy discussions, focusing on integrated resource planning, renewable energy, and regulatory challenges in the Southeast U.S., including presentations on energy efficiency modeling, carbon markets, and the Clean Power Plan.
,” Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR) meeting, Orlando, FL, November 2017. “Making the Most of the Power Plant Market: Best Practices for All-Source Electric Generation Procurement,” Southea...
AI summary The text cites two external references: a 2017 FAASSTeR meeting and an August 2020 presentation on power plant market best practices by the Nicholas Institute. These sources discuss energy procurement strategies and solar/storage technology initiatives.
John D. Wilson • Resource Insight, Incorporated Page 6 2011 South Carolina PSC Docket No. 2011-09-E, allowable ex parte briefing on behalf of Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, South Carolina Coastal Conservation League, and Upstate Forev...
AI summary The text outlines various regulatory proceedings involving energy efficiency and integrated resource plans in South Carolina and Georgia, with John D. Wilson representing environmental and consumer advocacy groups. The proceedings focus on the adequacy of energy efficiency considerations, resource mix, and the use of renewable energy alternatives.
se of solar power as an energy resource. 2014 South Carolina PSC Docket No. 2014-246-E, direct testimony generic proceeding on behalf of the South Carolina Coastal Conservation League and Southern Alliance for Clean Energy. Methods for cal...
AI summary The text outlines various regulatory proceedings involving the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, focusing on the calculation of dependable capacity credit for renewable resources, reserve margin requirements, and the adequacy of renewable energy consideration in integrated resource plans.
ysis of project-specific costs and benefits (including location and technology considerations), and methods for calculating dependable capacity credit for renewable resources.
AI summary The text discusses the analysis of project-specific costs and benefits, including considerations related to location and technology, as well as methods for calculating dependable capacity credit for renewable resources.
testimony with Paul Chernick in Nova Scotia Power’s application for the Advanced Distribution Management System Upgrade on behalf of the Nova Scotia Consumer Advocate. Need for the ADMS and integration with the Distributed Energy Resources...
AI summary Paul Chernick provided testimony in multiple regulatory proceedings, including Nova Scotia Power’s ADMS Upgrade, 2020 Load Forecast, and San Diego Gas & Electric’s EV Charging Program. His testimony focused on ensuring equitable and effective program implementation, budget controls, and evaluation processes.
N-9Evidence - Synapse
4 passages
harging, to shift electric vehicle charging to off-peak times.16 We ask that more complete results of the SGNS project regarding electric vehicle impacts be included in the next load forecast report. Solar generation (PV) Solar generation...
AI summary The text discusses load forecasting considerations for electric vehicles, solar PV, and battery storage, noting their potential impacts. It requests more comprehensive SGNS project data on EV and battery storage impacts, and highlights new customer contributions to residential load growth.
integrated the heat pump and hot water end-uses into the intensity calculations and regression model results rather than treating them separately. However, Figure 41 of the report does provide some 16 Id, p. 44 17 Id, pp. 45-47. 18 Id, pp....
AI summary The analysis integrates heat pump and hot water usage into load forecasting models, noting a net 541 GWh increase from heating/cooling but offset by 549 GWh reduction in baseboard heating. The commercial sector's load decreased by 0.58% over the forecast period, with subsector composition detailed. Electric vehicle adoption drives a 10.5% load increase. The SAE model's key drivers require reevaluation.
he peak is first modeled statistically using historical data and economic and demographic projections to produce a Modeled Peak, and then NSPI applies various adjustments to arrive at the System Peak. Table 5. Peak contribution components...
AI summary NSPI models peak demand using historical data and adjustments, with commercial/industrial electrification as the largest growth driver. The 2032 System Peak increases by 350 MW, driven by electrification, residential heating, and EV adoption, though demand response could mitigate some impacts.
• We also raise a point about the appropriateness of the commercial electrification programs. We ask NSPI to provide further information about their relative benefits and costs (p.14). • It is not clear in the report how much of the commer...
AI summary The text outlines requests for clarification and further analysis from Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. regarding NSPI's 2022 load forecast, focusing on commercial electrification programs, demand savings, EV impacts, time-of-use rates, DR measures, thermal storage, and emerging technologies like induction cooking. Questions emphasize cost-benefit evaluation, sector-specific DSM effects, and load management strategies.
N-10Evidence - EfficiencyOne
5 passages
Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board IN THE MATTER OF The Public Utilities Act - -and- IN THE MATTER OF NOVA SCOTIA POWER’S 2022 LOAD FORECAST REPORT (M10569) EFFICIENCYONE EVIDENCE FILED July 29, 2022 NOVA SCOTIA POWER 2022 LOAD FORECAST...
AI summary EfficiencyOne submits evidence in the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board proceeding regarding Nova Scotia Power’s 2022 Load Forecast Report (M10569), covering electrification modeling, demand response plans, and forecasting methodologies. The document outlines sections on heat pump modeling, alternative heating systems, and demand response treatment in the forecast.
E1 has identified several issues which it believes can be of value in refining the currently modelled 9 electrification scenario. NS Power described the electrification scenario work as follows: 10 11 “As part of the 2020 IRP Action Plan,...
AI summary E1 identifies issues with NS Power's electrification scenario model. NS Power explains its 2020 IRP Action Plan collaboration with E3 to forecast space heating and EV adoption without assuming regulatory or incentive changes. The 2022 Load Forecast shows increased energy requirements and peak demand compared to 2021, as detailed in Table 1.
ain 21 metrics, such as lowest cost, or maximum cost-effectiveness. An example of a market-wide 22 potential study is National Grid’s energy efficiency, energy optimization, and demand response 2 M10109, N-1, 2021 Load Forecast Report, pag...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power and E3 modeled an electrification scenario aligned with provincial/federal policy goals but did not prove it aligns with market trends without intervention. Market potential studies (e.g., UK RHI program) show risks of overestimating technology adoption rates, highlighting the need for evidence-based planning.
ccelerate low-carbon heating in the UK. Under the 13 RHI, households that have installed a heat pump could claim these tariffs quarterly for seven 14 years based off the dwelling’s heat demand. 15 16 The UK Climate Change Committee’s targe...
AI summary The UK's Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) program aimed to accelerate heat pump adoption but has significantly underperformed, with only 62,492 accredited installations by 2020 versus a target of 491,000 by 2021. The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) highlights this gap, noting that even with incentives, deployment remains far below expectations, undermining climate goals.
vidence 1 when system reliability is jeopardized.” 31 2 3 E1 recommends that NS Power apply the same framework when assessing the value provided 4 by different demand response programs. 5 6 5. SUMMARY 7 What are the primary recommendations...
AI summary E1 recommends updating NS Power's heat pump modeling to reflect current adoption trends, exploring electrification scenarios with specific technologies, providing a plan for demand response capacity, and applying a consistent framework for assessing demand response programs to ensure system reliability and effective resource planning.
N-12NS Power Rebuttal Evidence
6 passages
2 Page 5 of 25 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 2.0 RESPONSE 2 3 As outlined below, the evidence from Synapse, the CA, and E1, as well as the SBA’s submission 4 are primarily focused on the following issues: 5 6 1. Fur...
AI summary The 2022 Load Forecast Report rebuttal highlights three key areas: electrification's impact on energy/peak demand, new technologies (smart grid, time-variable rates), and weather normalization improvements. NS Power acknowledges the need for further investigation and will incorporate data from initiatives like the Integrated Resource Plan and Smart Grid Nova Scotia into future forecasts.
electrification. 28 Key account representatives work with customers to identify third party 29 programs or opportunities that may provide a benefit to them.10 The load impact 9 M09519. 10 Examples of third-party electrification programs or...
AI summary The text discusses collaboration between key account representatives and customers to identify third-party electrification programs, such as those sponsored by Agriculture Canada and the Federal Government’s Strategic Innovation Fund. Examples include the Net Zero Accelerator Fund and Smart Renewables and Electrification Pathways Program. The mention of matter number M09519 indicates this is part of a regulatory proceeding.
Page 10 of 25 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 of these activities is not picked up in the underlying models, so estimates of these 2 initiatives are included separately. Beyond the estimated load impact, relative 3 be...
AI summary NS Power clarifies that 15% of commercial/industrial demand savings are allocated to industrial sectors, with 85% to commercial. It agrees to investigate post-2027 electrification impacts. Additional programs from federal and provincial bodies are referenced.
he Capital Project Retrofit of Municipal Facilities and Signature Initiatives from the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, and the Zero Emission Transit Fund from Infrastructure Canada. DATE FILED: September 26, 2022 Page 11 of 25 2022...
AI summary The document outlines the Capital Project, including municipal facility retrofits and the Zero Emission Transit Fund from Infrastructure Canada, as part of a 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal. Filed on September 26, 2022, it references initiatives by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities and Infrastructure Canada.
on 31 weather with respect to peak load for the 2023 Load Forecast Report. The impact 11 M10569, Exhibit N-8, Evidence of John Wilson, July 29, 2022, pages 2-12. DATE FILED: September 26, 2022 Page 17 of 25 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebutt...
AI summary NS Power responds to recommendations regarding weather normalization methods, stakeholder engagement for load forecasting, and addressing electrification gaps. It confirms stakeholder review of weather data methods and plans to incorporate future electrification data into load forecasts.
FILED: September 26, 2022 Page 18 of 25 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 3.2.5 Recommendation 5: 2 3 “NS Power should update those same load forecast models to 4 reflect the findings from Itron with respect to real-wor...
AI summary NS Power agrees to update load forecast models with Itron's findings on heat pump impacts and policy goals for electrification. It acknowledges challenges in heat pump water heater adoption due to cost and cooling effects, and commits to quarterly progress reports on the line loss determination model as per the Board's directive.
86578NSUARB (NSPI) IR-1 to IR-36
3 passages
Document: 295519 (P-194) Date Filed: June 9/22 UARB (NSPI) Pg. 3 of 10 1 a) Please cite the sources for the GDP estimates used in the forecast model. 2 b) Please confirm the year that the values are chained to. 3 i. Please confirm that the...
AI summary The UARB requests clarification on GDP estimates, employment data updates, EIA data calibration, and the realism of heat pump adoption forecasts in NSP's application. Questions focus on data sources, methodology alignment with Statistics Canada, and justification for modeled scenarios.
Document: 295519 (P-194) Date Filed: June 9/22 UARB (NSPI) Pg. 6 of 10 1 i. Please provide a copy of the data used in the mode and the source for driving 2 habits. 3 b) If residential sales are expected to be elevated due to increased work...
AI summary The UARB requests data on residential driving habits, expanded tables for PV impact and electrification forecasts, explanations for price elasticity choices, and reasons for declines in DSM savings forecasts. Requests focus on data transparency, methodological consistency, and alignment with Canadian standards in load forecasting.
Document: 295519 (P-194) Date Filed: June 9/22 UARB (NSPI) Pg. 8 of 10 1 Request IR-28: 2 With reference to Section 5.0 Residential Sector, page 61 of 98, the application states, “While 3 efficiency is expected to increase, house size is a...
AI summary The UARB requests clarifications on NSP's load and sales forecasts, including assumptions about residential efficiency, commercial sales declines, small industrial growth, and renewable energy integration in hospital expansions. Questions focus on data sources, growth rate changes, and adjustments for renewable energy impacts.
86619E1 (NSPI) IR-1 to IR-12
7 passages
n Requests to Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) In the Matter of Nova Scotia Power Incorporated’s 2022 Load Forecast Report – M10569 NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 ELECTRIFICATION 2 3 Request IR-01: 4 Reference: NS Power 2022 Load Forecast, page 15, l...
AI summary The document contains requests to NS Power regarding their 2022 Load Forecast Report, focusing on electrification modeling, current programs, and cost-effectiveness testing for electrification initiatives. Requests include providing E3's stock rollover models, details on electrification projects, and NS Power's stance on cost-effectiveness testing for ratepayer-funded programs.
osition that cost-effectiveness testing is appropriate to apply to all 26 ratepayer funded electrification pilots and programs? Please provide the basis for 27 your position. Date Filed: June 16, 2022 E1 (NS Power) Page 1 of 8 EfficiencyOn...
AI summary EfficiencyOne (E1) requests Nova Scotia Power (NS Power) to justify applying cost-effectiveness testing to all ratepayer-funded electrification pilots and programs, seeking the basis for this position. The document is part of a regulatory proceeding related to NS Power’s 2022 Load Forecast Report (M10569).
ests to Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) In the Matter of Nova Scotia Power Incorporated’s 2022 Load Forecast Report – M10569 NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-04: 2 Reference: NS Power 2022 Load Forecast, page 15, lines 3-8. 3 “As part of th...
AI summary NS Power's 2022 Load Forecast Report discusses collaboration with E3 to model space heating and EV uptake scenarios aligned with climate goals. Questions address market alignment with federal and provincial mandates, risk mitigation for electrification, and processes for determining necessary interventions.
Requests to Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) In the Matter of Nova Scotia Power Incorporated’s 2022 Load Forecast Report – M10569 NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 (a) Please confirm whether there are heating options other than heat pumps which also 2 p...
AI summary The document contains requests to NS Power regarding their 2022 Load Forecast Report, including inquiries about heating alternatives to heat pumps, factors affecting wood and electric resistance usage trends, the role of other heating technologies in net-zero goals, heat pump stock categorization, and demand response (DR) forecast methodologies involving effective load carrying capacity (ELCC).
1 (b) Please elaborate on any coincidence factor associated with the electric backup of 2 heat pumps. Is any coincidence factor assumed for electric backup heating in the 3 RESHAPE analysis? 4 (c) What penetration of electric resistance he...
AI summary The text includes questions about heat pump backup systems, RESHAPE analysis assumptions, climate change impacts on heating/cooling degree days, low-GWP refrigerants, and EV charging management in Nova Scotia. NS Power is asked to elaborate on technical and modeling considerations.
ion Requests to Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) In the Matter of Nova Scotia Power Incorporated’s 2022 Load Forecast Report – M10569 NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 (a) As part of its 2023-2025 DSM Plan, E1 has included EV managed charging in its 2 d...
AI summary The document contains requests to NS Power regarding its 2022 Load Forecast Report, focusing on demand response programs (including EV managed charging and Critical Peak Pricing), capacity savings double-counting, and electrification measures. E1 questions NS Power's integration of updated demand response programs and decarbonization comparisons in the forecast.
ation measures that NS Power is using for the quoted 25 comparison above? 26 b) What decarbonization measures are the electrification measures being compared 27 to? Date Filed: June 16, 2022 E1 (NS Power) Page 7 of 8 EfficiencyOne (E1) Inf...
AI summary EfficiencyOne (E1) is inquiring about Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s (NS Power) 2022 Load Forecast Report, specifically seeking details on electrification and decarbonization measures, their cost-benefit analyses, and the comparison methodology used in the report.