Topic:"Renewable Energy" in M10653

1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 1.0 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... 5 3 2.0 LOAD FORECAST ............................................................................

AI summary The document outlines a regulatory proceeding's structure, focusing on load forecasting, existing and new generation resources, and capacity changes. Key sections include discussions on hydro projects (Mersey, Wreck Cove, Annapolis Tidal), Brooklyn Power, Lingan Unit 2, and updates to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).

it Utilization Forecast ..............................................................................................19 16 3.3.1 Evolution of the Energy Mix in Nova Scotia ............................................................20 17...

AI summary The text outlines sections of a regulatory proceeding document covering energy mix evolution, utilization projections, transmission queues, environmental regulations, carbon pricing, and resource adequacy, highlighting key areas of analysis and compliance requirements.

1 TABLE OF FIGURES 2 Figure 1: Net System Requirement with Future DSM Program Effects (actuals not weather adjusted)..... 8 3 Figure 2: Coincident Peak Demand with Future DSM Program Effects .............................................. 9...

AI summary The document lists figures addressing energy management topics, including demand-side management impacts, generating capability, transmission interconnection queues, and greenhouse gas emissions compliance. Figures analyze system requirements, peak demand, capacity changes, energy mix forecasts, and infrastructure planning, though detailed analysis is not provided in the text.

Page 4 of 60 2022 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION 2 3 Delivering clean, reliable, and affordable energy is NS Power’s commitment to customers. NS 4 Power is working towards supplying 80 percent clean energy by 20...

AI summary NS Power's 2022 10-Year System Outlook outlines their commitment to 80% clean energy by 2030, annual assessment of system capacity, and updates on load forecast, DSM, and generation expansion. The report emphasizes adherence to market rules and highlights progress in renewable energy integration.

Page 5 of 60 2022 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 • A summary of environmental and emissions regulatory requirements, as well as forecast 2 compliance in Section 5. Section 5 also includes projections of the level of renewable 3...

AI summary NS Power's 2022 10-Year System Outlook updates its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to align with Scenario 3.1C, reflecting revised load forecasts and environmental policies. The 2020 IRP's reference plan (2.0C) is no longer optimal due to changes in electrification and carbon policy. A 2022 Evergreen IRP study will refine long-term strategies, informing future system outlooks.

Page 9 of 60 2022 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 3.0 GENERATION RESOURCES 2 3 3.1 Existing Generation Resources 4 5 NS Power’s generation portfolio is composed of a mix of fuel and technology types that include 6 coal, petroleum...

AI summary NS Power's generation mix includes conventional and renewable sources, with Renewable Electricity Standards (RES) increasing variable renewables like wind. However, conventional units provide most firm capacity due to intermittency, displacing renewables when active.

168 (CFB) Total Steam 1547 Tufts Cove Units 4, 5 & 6 Natural Gas 144 Total Combined Cycle 144 Burnside Light Fuel Oil 132 Tusket Light Fuel Oil 33 Victoria Junction Light Fuel Oil 66 Total Combustion Turbine 231 Pre-2001 Renewables 8 Indep...

AI summary The text lists Nova Scotia's power generation sources by fuel type and capacity, including natural gas, light fuel oil, wind, and IPPs. It notes outages (Annapolis), availability (Lingan Unit 2), and firm capacity assumptions for wind projects. References to sections explain operational statuses and capacity contributions.

Resource Interconnection Service (ERIS) and Network Resource Interconnection Service (NRIS) wind projects are assumed to have a firm capacity contribution of 18 percent as detailed in Section 6.3.1. DATE FILED: June 30, 2022 Page 11 of 60...

AI summary The text outlines the firm capacity contribution of ERIS and NRIS wind projects at 18%, as detailed in Section 6.3.1. It also includes data on renewable energy capacity in the 2022 10-Year System Outlook, highlighting solar, tidal, and IPPs contributions.

Wholesale Market Participant Fuel Type Capacity 10 (MW) Backup Top-Up (BUTU) 11 Wind [Ellershouse 12] 4.2 Backup Top-Up (BUTU) Import Contract 13 0 Total 4.2 3 4 3.1.1 Maximum Unit Capacity Rating Adjustments 5 6 As a member of the Maritim...

AI summary NS Power complies with NERC Standard MOD-025-2 for generator capacity verification as a member of the Maritimes Area of the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC). The document references a NSUARB decision (M09940) aligning BUTU service ELCC factors with NS Power planning practices, including 18% ELCC for wind and 0% for non-firm imports.

1 The Net Operating Capacity of the thermal units and large hydro units covered by the NERC 2 criteria do not require adjustments at this point. NS Power will continue to refresh unit maximum 3 capacities in the 10-Year System Outlook each...

AI summary NS Power states that net operating capacities of thermal and large hydro units do not require adjustments, with annual updates planned. Mersey Hydro System redevelopment is underway due to aging infrastructure, critical for 25% of domestic hydro production. The 2020 IRP found redevelopment economically viable over decommissioning based on Hydro Asset Study (HAS) assumptions.

1 3.1.3 Wreck Cove Hydro 2 3 The Wreck Cove Hydro system is an important asset for NS Power, providing critical and 4 renewable generation for peak demand periods. With the ability to quickly provide 212 MW of 5 peak capacity from two oper...

AI summary The Wreck Cove Hydro system, NS Power's largest hydroelectric asset, is undergoing a Life Extension and Modernization (LEM) Project to replace turbines with more efficient models, increasing annual generation by 5% to 315 GWh. The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) outlines a decarbonization strategy emphasizing renewable energy integration over 25 years.

d using a Low Electrification load forecast 26 input, along with the assumption that coal generation would be retired by 2040 (or earlier as 27 economically optimized), based on then-current assumptions. The IRP Mid Electrification 28 reso...

AI summary The text discusses NS Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) scenarios, highlighting that the Mid Electrification plan (Scenario 3.1C) with coal retirements by 2030 aligns better with updated load forecasts and environmental policies than the Low Electrification scenario. It references the 2020 IRP Report (M08929) and the 2022 document.

Page 14 of 60 2022 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 (described in Section 5.0). The remainder of the Report uses an updated resource plan that more 2 closely aligns with the IRP Scenario 3.1C plan rather than the IRP Reference Pla...

AI summary The 2022 10-Year System Outlook updates Nova Scotia Power's resource plan to align with IRP Scenario 3.1C, incorporating 80% RES by 2030, GHG pricing via Federal Backstop, ECEI investments, and 350 MW of wind capacity from Rate Base Procurement. Figure 5 highlights DSM projections, including 285 MW peak reduction and 37 MW demand response contributions.

285 Demand Response (Firm contribution) 17 37 Total Demand Side MW Change Projected Over Planning Period 322 Maintenance/Repairs: Hydro derates during Mersey rebuild and Wreck Cove LEM -108 Wreck Cove LEM completion 101 Brooklyn Power (Pre...

AI summary The text outlines projected demand-side management contributions, maintenance impacts on hydro infrastructure, and new resource additions (biomass, wind) for Nova Scotia's energy system. It references demand response firm contributions, maintenance/repairs impacts, and 2023-2032 resource additions, including a 48% ELCC assumption for demand response.

Page 16 of 60 2022 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 IRP Action Update, reflecting new information between the original issuance date and the 2 workshop. On April 29, 2022 NS Power released a 2022 Evergreen IRP Study Scope outline...

AI summary The document outlines updates to the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), including a stakeholder workshop and the release of draft assumptions and scenarios. It also discusses the status of Brooklyn Power’s biomass facility and the layup of Lingan Unit 2, which will be placed in cold reserve starting August 15, 2022.

Retirements 2022/2023 • Firm import opportunities on existing transmission infrastructure (85 MW) 2023/2024 • New wind additions (Rate Base Lingan 2 (-148 MW) Procurement ) (Installed capacity 100 MW, 21 firm 10 MW based on marginal ELCC o...

AI summary The document outlines retirements and new additions to Nova Scotia's energy infrastructure from 2022 to 2027, including wind additions, battery storage, and coal-to-gas conversions. It details the installed capacity, firm capacity based on marginal ELCC, and associated projects such as Lingan 2, Point Tupper 2, and Tufts Cove 1 & 2.

Retirements 2027/2028 • Combustion turbines (200 MW) Tufts Cove 3 (- 147 MW) 22 • Combustion turbines (250 MW) 2028/2029 • New wind additions (Installed capacity 175 Lingan 1 & 3 (- 306 MW) MW, firm 17.5 MW based on marginal ELCC of 10%) 2...

AI summary The document outlines the retirement of various power generation assets in Nova Scotia between 2027 and 2032, including combustion turbines and wind additions. It also discusses the evolution of Nova Scotia Power’s energy mix, noting an increasing reliance on variable renewable resources like wind, while conventional generation continues to meet firm capacity needs.

of conventional units is being displaced by renewable 15 resources. Figure 7 below illustrates this change with the actual energy mix from 2005 and 2021 16 and the updated forecast for 2023. 17 22 Tufts Cove 1, 2 & 3 retirements were selec...

AI summary The document discusses the shift from conventional energy units to renewable resources, illustrated by energy mix data from 2005, 2021, and a 2023 forecast. It also references the retirement of Tufts Cove 1, 2 & 3 based on the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) in favor of new gas combined cycle (CT) capacity and mentions the Evergreen IRP's examination of these retirements.

onally, in a predominantly base-loaded generation fleet, it was sufficient to consider 6 capacity factor as the source for utilization forecasts for any given unit. This is no longer the case; 7 integration of variable renewable resources...

AI summary The document discusses the shift in utilization forecasting for NS Power's generation fleet due to the integration of variable renewable resources. It introduces the concept of utilization factor (UF) to better reflect the operational demands and capabilities of generating units.

2 3 The UF parameters are assessed to more completely describe the operational outlook for the steam 4 fleet and direct investment planning. The four parameters are described below. 5 6 • Capacity factor reflects the energy production cont...

AI summary The document discusses the use of utilization factor (UF) parameters to better assess the operational outlook for the steam fleet and guide investment planning. It outlines three key parameters: capacity factor, service hours, and unit cycles, each explaining how they influence investment and maintenance strategies.

1 • Asset health is a critical operating parameter to keep at the forefront of all asset 2 management decisions. For example, asset health may determine if a unit is capable of 3 two-shifting (unit is shut down during low load overnight an...

AI summary The document discusses the importance of asset health in asset management decisions, particularly in relation to unit operations and utilization factors (UF). It also outlines how NS Power uses the PLEXOS model to forecast utilization and how sustaining investments are estimated based on UF, life consumption, and failure mechanisms for different asset classes.

GIA 1-T 426 27-Jul-12 Richmond 45.0 45.0 47C Biomass 01-Sep-18 NRIS Executed 2-T 516 5.0 5.0 37N Tidal GIA NRIS 5-Dec-14 Cumberland 31-May-20 Executed GIA 3-T 540 28-Jul-16 Hants 14.1 14.1 17V Wind 31-Oct-23 NRIS Executed GIA 4-T 542 26-Se...

AI summary The text lists various energy projects with details such as project numbers, dates, locations, capacities, and statuses. It includes projects related to biomass, tidal, wind, and combined heat and power (CHP) energy sources, with some projects marked as executed or complete.

SIS 9-T 598 13-May-21 Cumberland 2.52 2.52 37N Tidal 01-Dec-22 Milestones NRIS Met GIA 10-D 604 7-Jun-21 Cape Breton 0.45 0.45 11S-303 Solar 15-Jan-22 N/A Executed 603 31-May-21 Cumberland 22N-404 Solar/ GIA 11 -D 0.4 0.4 N/A Battery 16-Fe...

AI summary The text provides a list of projects with details such as project numbers, dates, locations, capacities, technologies, and statuses. These projects include tidal, solar, battery, and wind energy initiatives, with some in progress and others completed.

Page 30 of 60 2022 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL AND EMISSIONS REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS 2 3 5.1 Renewable Electricity Requirements 4 5 The RES include a renewable energy requirement for NS Power of 25 percent o...

AI summary Nova Scotia has set renewable electricity requirements (RES) for NS Power, increasing from 25% in 2015 to 80% by 2030. The Province initiated a procurement program for 1,100 GWh of renewable energy, with selected projects to be in service by 2025. The COMFIT and Net Metering programs also support community and small-scale renewable projects.

rom 22 2015 to 2019 the Company served 26.6 percent (2015), 28 percent (2016), 29 percent (2017), 30 23 percent (2018) and 30 percent (2019) of sales using qualifying renewable energy sources. 24 31 Renewable Electricity Regulations, made...

AI summary The text provides statistics on the percentage of sales served by qualifying renewable energy sources from 2015 to 2019, and references the Renewable Electricity Regulations under the Electricity Act, as well as amendments to the Net Metering legislation effective April 22, 2022.

19 The RES Compliance Forecast in Figure 14 illustrates the full amount of RES-eligible energy 20 forecast to be available to the Company for 2023-2025. 21 22 Figure 14: RES Compliance Forecast RES Compliance Forecast 36 2023 2024 2025 Ene...

AI summary The RES Compliance Forecast outlines the Renewable Electricity Standards (RES) energy requirements for 2023-2025, including Net System Requirement (NSR), losses, and sales. The RES requirement is set at 40% for each year, with corresponding GWh values provided.

Page 32 of 60 2022 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL Renewable Energy Sources (GWh) NS Power Wind 264 264 261 Post-2001 IPPs 770 770 2455 PH Biomass 290 290 290 COMFIT Wind Energy 523 523 534 COMFIT Non-Wind Energy 15 15 45 Eligible...

AI summary The 2022 10-Year System Outlook presents data on renewable energy sources in Nova Scotia, including contributions from NS Power Wind, IPPs, biomass, COMFIT Wind and Non-Wind Energy, and renewable imports, with varying outputs over the years.

Page 39 of 60 2022 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 6.0 RESOURCE ADEQUACY 2 3 6.1 Operating Reserve Criteria 4 5 Operating Reserves are resources which can be called upon by system operators on short notice to 6 respond to the unp...

AI summary The document outlines the operating reserve criteria for the Maritimes Area under the NPCC Regional Reliability Reference Directory. It specifies that each Balancing Authority must have ten-minute and thirty-minute reserves to address contingency losses. NS Power and NB Power share reserve responsibilities based on a 12CP load-ratio share, with specific allocations for ten-minute and thirty-minute reserves.

1 The PRM is a long-term planning assumption that is typically updated as part of an IRP process. 2 NS Power studied the appropriate calculation of its PRM as part of the 2020 IRP 47 which 3 confirmed that a 20 percent PRM target was appro...

AI summary The document discusses the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) and its role in long-term planning, including its calculation in the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). It also addresses the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) of renewable resources, particularly wind, and outlines a study conducted by E3 on behalf of NS Power to determine the ELCC of existing and potential new wind resources.

1 be 11 to 9 percent. In the 2020 IRP, the Company used 10 percent for the ELCC value of new 2 wind. For the purposes of this Report, NS Power has used the 18 percent capacity value of existing 3 wind to account for the wind farm serving w...

AI summary The document discusses the capacity value assigned to different wind and hydro resources by NS Power, referencing the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and the Back-up / Top-up (BUTU) Tariff. It also outlines a projected capacity deficit in Winter 2023/2024 and mentions the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) as a reliability criterion set by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NPCC).

ulch and 9W-Tusket 27 Option #6 ‐ Bypass L-5025, L-5026, L-5531, and L-5535 with new double circuit 138 kV line 28 from 51V-Tremont to new substations at 13V-Gulch and 9W-Tusket. 29 DATE FILED: June 30, 2022 Page 58 of 60 2022 10-Year Syst...

AI summary The 2022 10-Year System Outlook study was expanded to include electrification impacts on the Western Valley and Western regions. However, work was paused in Q3 2021 due to the Rate Base Procurement process for renewable generation and is expected to resume in Q3 2022.