N-1Report
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TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 5 2.0 LOAD FORECAST ...........................................................................
AI summary The document outlines a regulatory proceeding's table of contents, focusing on generation resources, capacity changes, and utilization forecasts. Key sections include existing resources (e.g., Mersey Hydro, Wreck Cove Hydro), capacity adjustments (e.g., NS Power IRP Process, Brooklyn Power), and renewable projects like Annapolis Tidal.
....................................................................................... 20 3.3.1 Evolution of the Energy Mix in Nova Scotia ...................................................................... 22 3.3.2 Projections of Unit...
AI summary The document outlines sections covering energy mix evolution, system impact studies, environmental regulations, and resource adequacy. Key themes include renewable electricity requirements, infrastructure planning, and reserve criteria for grid reliability.
........................... 43 6.3 Capacity Contribution of Renewable Resources in Nova Scotia ................................................ 44 6.4 Load and Resources Review .................................................................
AI summary The document outlines sections of a regulatory proceeding, including renewable resources capacity, load and resources review, and transmission planning, as part of a 2023 10-Year System Outlook. Filed on June 30, 2023, it provides a non-confidential overview of Nova Scotia's energy planning.
TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Net System Requirement with Future DSM Program Effects (actuals not weather adjusted) ...... 8 Figure 2: Coincident Peak Demand with Future DSM Program Effects .......................................................
AI summary The document presents a series of figures analyzing energy demand, generation capacity, DSM program impacts, infrastructure planning, and emission compliance. Key themes include system reliability, renewable energy integration, capital investment forecasts, and transmission queue management under Nova Scotia's regulatory framework.
.............................................................. 35 Figure 15: Multi-year Greenhouse Gas Emission Limits ........................................................................... 36 Figure 16: Greenhouse Gas Free Allowances...
AI summary The document includes figures related to greenhouse gas emission limits, emission intensity standards, and NS Power's 10-year load and resources outlook. It references a non-confidential 2023 10-Year System Outlook filing, highlighting regulatory focus on emissions, renewable energy, and long-term resource planning.
Page 4 of 60 2023 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION 2 3 Delivering clean, reliable and lowest cost energy is NS Power’s commitment to customers. NS 4 Power is committed to supplying 80 percent clean energy and phas...
AI summary NS Power outlines its commitment to 80% clean energy by 2030 and progress in tripling renewable energy on the grid. The 2023 10-Year System Outlook report assesses system capacity and adequacy, including DSM forecasts and generation expansion plans, under Nova Scotia Wholesale and Renewable to Retail Electricity Market Rules.
Page 5 of 59 2023 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 • A summary of environmental and emissions regulatory requirements, as well as forecast 2 compliance in Section 5.0. Section 5.0 also includes projections of the level of renewabl...
AI summary The 2023 10-Year System Outlook report outlines environmental compliance, renewable energy projections, and transmission planning. It references the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and updates to the long-term electricity strategy, selecting the Evergreen IRP scenario CE1-E1-R2 (net zero 2035) as the basis for the 2023 outlook. Section 3.0 details the selected reference scenario.
1 2.0 LOAD FORECAST 2 3 The NS Power load forecast provides an outlook on the energy and peak demand requirements of 4 customers in the province. The load forecast forms the basis for fuel and power-purchase supply 5 planning, investment p...
AI summary NS Power's load forecast outlines energy and peak demand needs, using SAE models and econometric methods. Near-term growth is driven by customer additions and EV adoption, while RTR sales and DSM initiatives reduce long-term demand. The net system requirement is projected to increase by 0.7% annually.
1 efficiency program effectiveness, the health of the economy, government policy, the impact of 2 electrification, changes in large customer loads, the number of electric appliances and end-use 3 equipment installed, and changes in technol...
AI summary NS Power's generation portfolio includes conventional and renewable resources, with renewable energy's intermittent nature requiring conventional units to meet firm capacity needs. The Renewable Electricity Standards (RES) have increased variable renewable energy production, though conventional resources remain critical for reliability.
318 Trenton Coal/Pet Coke/Heavy Fuel Oil 304 Point Tupper Coal/Pet Coke/Heavy Fuel Oil 150 Lingan 10 Coal/Pet Coke/Heavy Fuel Oil 607 Coal/Pet Coke & Limestone Sorbent Point Aconi 168 (CFB) PH Biomass 43 Total Steam 1590 Tufts Cove Units 4...
AI summary The document lists power generation units with their fuel types and capacities, including coal, natural gas, and biomass. Footnotes discuss Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) values for renewables, Annapolis being out of service, and Lingan Unit 2's cold reserve status for winter 2023/2024.
134.9 Total Capacity 2593.7 1 2 Figure 4: Firm Generating Capability for Wholesale Market Participants 3 Winter Net Wholesale Market Participant Fuel Type Capacity 12 (MW) Backup Top-Up (BUTU) 13 Wind [Ellershouse 14] 4.2 Backup Top-Up (BU...
AI summary The document presents a figure detailing wholesale market participants' firm generating capacity, including wind projects with 18% ELCC. Footnotes reference a Board decision (M09940) aligning with NS Power's planning practices, which assign 18% ELCC to wind and 0% to non-firm imports. The text also notes municipal load participants and the Ellershouse wind farm owned by AREA.
Page 13 of 59 2023 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Carrying Capability (ELCC) has been reduced to 85 percent; this is reflected in the firm generating 2 capacity table (please see Figure 3). 3 4 3.1.3 Wreck Cove Hydro 5 6 The Wre...
AI summary The document discusses reduced Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) at 85%, highlights the Wreck Cove Hydro project's modernization increasing annual generation by 5%, and outlines 2030 renewable energy targets (80% RES) and carbon pricing ($170/tonne) under Nova Scotia's Output-Based Pricing System.
1 • The pausing of the Eastern Clean Energy Initiative (ECEI) project investments as an 2 outcome of the passage of Bill 212, which limits non-fuel rate increases to 1.8 percent to 3 the end of 2024. 4 • Announcement of the Federal Investm...
AI summary NS Power discusses the pause of the ECEI project due to Bill 212, federal tax credits for renewables, accelerating load growth, PPAs from the Provincial Rate Base Procurement program, and the selection of the CE1-E1-R2 scenario for the 2023 IRP, aiming for net zero by 2035 while monitoring future developments.
ies in alignment with Federal policy 25 discussion papers which point to these technologies as part of the path to a net zero electricity 26 system. The emerging technologies considered in the evergreen IRP include hydrogen fueled 18 Nova...
AI summary The document discusses Nova Scotia Power's (NS Power) analysis of the evergreen Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), highlighting the CE1-E1-R1 BD scenario with a bidirectional Atlantic Loop as the lowest-cost option. Emerging technologies like hydrogen, small modular reactors, and carbon capture are evaluated but not economically selected, with NS Power committing to monitor their development.
rces and reassess as needed. 6 7 Figure 5 below shows the anticipated DSM and firm capacity changes over the ten-year period 8 starting in 2024. 9 10 Figure 5: Firm Capacity Changes & DSM 11 New Resources 2024-2033 Net MW DSM Peak reductio...
AI summary The text outlines projected changes in demand-side management (DSM) and firm capacity from 2024 to 2033, including DSM peak reduction, new resource additions (biomass, tidal, wind, battery), and maintenance adjustments (hydro derates, Wreck Cove LEM). It highlights a net increase in firm capacity through renewable and infrastructure projects.
capacity) 160 Other Wind (Firm capacity) 21 13 20 Represents the firm contribution of demand response programs in 2033 assuming an ELCC of 48 percent. Refer to Section 2.0, Figure 2 for the annual DR totals from 2024 to 2033. 21 Represents...
AI summary The document outlines the 2023 10-Year System Outlook, including new resources such as the Lingan 1, 3 & 4 HFO Operation with a capacity of 459 Net MW, and mentions other wind projects and demand response programs contributing to system capacity.
AL New Resources 2024-2033 Net MW Lingan 1, 3 & 4 HFO Operation 459 Retirements: Trenton 5 & 6 -304 Lingan 1, 2, 3 & 4 (Coal Operation) -607 Point Tupper (Coal Operation) -150 Point Aconi -168 Total Firm Supply MW Change Projected Over Pla...
AI summary The document outlines changes in power generation resources in Nova Scotia from 2024 to 2033, including retirements of coal and HFO units, and the operation of renewable energy facilities. Brooklyn Power’s biomass facility was temporarily offline due to damage but is now operational again. Lingan Unit 2 was placed in cold reserve but was recalled multiple times during winter 2022/2023 to support firm customer load.
Page 18 of 59 2023 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 NS Power provided a status update to the NSUARB on March 9, 2023 indicating that the 2 Company, along with the relevant environmental regulators (DFO), continues to assess the 3...
AI summary NS Power provided an update to the NSUARB on the Annapolis Tidal Generating Station, stating that no capacity or energy contribution from the station is assumed for the 2023 10-Year System Outlook. The company also outlined its unit utilization forecast and the anticipated system additions and retirements.
ustomers. A summary of the 14 anticipated system additions and retirements is set out below in Figure 6. 15 16 Figure 6: Additions and Retirements as in the 10-Year System Outlook Resource Plan 17 Winter Additions Retirements • New wind ad...
AI summary The document outlines anticipated additions and retirements in the 10-Year System Outlook Resource Plan, focusing on new wind additions and battery storage from 2024 to 2027, along with the retirement of the Lingan 2 facility in 2025/2026.
marginal ELCC 2030/2031 of 10%) • Battery Storage (Installed capacity: 60MW; firm capacity: 23MW) • Reciprocating engine (20 MW) 2031/2032 • New wind additions (Installed capacity 200 MW, firm 20 MW based on marginal ELCC of 10%) • Combust...
AI summary The document outlines planned resource additions for the years 2030/2031 to 2032/2033, including battery storage, reciprocating engines, wind additions, and combustion turbines. It notes that many of these resources are in the development stage, and timing adjustments may occur.
23 Page 20 of 59 2023 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 3.3.1 Evolution of the Energy Mix in Nova Scotia 2 3 NS Power’s energy production mix has undergone significant changes over the last 15 years. Since 4 the implementation of t...
AI summary NS Power's energy production mix has shifted significantly over the past 15 years, with an increased reliance on variable renewable resources like wind. However, these resources provide less firm capacity compared to conventional generation sources such as coal, gas, and hydro. Conventional units still meet the majority of firm capacity needs, while their energy output is being displaced by renewables.
Factor 71 63 56 60 58 65 62 55 57 44 Tufts (%) Cove 5 Unit 104 112 193 147 154 222 237 221 206 218 Cycles Service 7,024 6,440 5,247 5,694 5,459 6,091 5,827 5,186 5,379 4,120 Hours 1 26 Point Tupper is converted to Natural Gas in 2028. DATE...
AI summary The document outlines a 10-year system outlook for 2023, including a table with factors and data related to energy production and service hours. It also mentions the conversion of Point Tupper to Natural Gas in 2028.
Capacity Factor 54 44 37 37 39 46 45 40 41 34 Tufts (%) Cove 6 Unit 100 57 128 87 87 137 161 159 145 161 Cycles Service 5,734 6,799 5,868 6,257 6,020 6,111 5,598 5,074 5,225 4,082 Hours 1 2 3.3.3 Steam Fleet Utilization Outlook 3 4 Unit ut...
AI summary The document discusses the shift in unit investment planning for NS Power due to the integration of variable renewable resources, emphasizing the need to consider factors beyond traditional capacity factors, such as unit starts, operating hours, and asset health. It introduces the utilization factor (UF) to better forecast the future use of generating units.
Page 24 of 59 2023 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 • Capacity factor reflects the energy production contribution of a generating unit and is a 2 necessary constituent of unit utilization. It is a part of the utilization factor de...
AI summary The document discusses the importance of capacity factors and service hours in assessing generating unit utilization, especially with the increased use of variable-intermittent generation. It highlights that service hours, rather than just capacity factors, are critical for understanding maintenance needs and failure mechanisms in power generation equipment.
em upgrades associated with 13 Transmission Service Request 400 which is discussed further in Section . 14 15 Figure 12: Combined T&D Advanced Stage Interconnection Queue as of June 28, 2023 16 In-Service Request Inter- date Queue Date MW...
AI summary The document discusses transmission service requests and their associated interconnection agreements, including details such as request numbers, dates, counties, megawatt capacities, connection points, and statuses. These requests include biomass, tidal, and wind energy projects with various interconnection agreements executed.
Page 29 of 59 2023 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL In-Service Request Inter- date Queue Date MW MW Service IR# County connection Type DD- Status Order DD-MMM- Summer Winter Type Point MMM- YY YY 27 8-D 566 16-Jan-19 Digby 0.7 0.7 5...
AI summary The document presents a 2023 10-Year System Outlook, listing various energy generation projects with details such as request date, location, capacity, interconnection point, service date, and status. Projects include tidal and wind energy initiatives across different counties in Nova Scotia.
0.45 11S-303 Solar 15-Jan-22 GIA Executed N/A 12-T 597 07-May-21 Queens 36 36 50W Wind 31-Aug-23 FAC Complete NRIS 13-T 647 6-Oct-21 Cumberland 1.5 1.5 37N Tidal 31-Dec-23 GIA in progress NRIS 14-D 653 19-Jan-22 Halifax 0.09 0.09 24H-406 S...
AI summary The text presents a list of projects with details such as project numbers, locations, capacities, technologies, dates, and statuses. These projects include solar, wind, tidal, and battery installations across various regions in Nova Scotia, with statuses ranging from 'GIA Executed' to 'SIS in progress'.
20-T 671 05-Aug-22 Halifax 88.96 88.96 L-6004 Wind 28-Feb-26 SIS in progress NRIS SIS in progress NRIS 21-T 669 04-Aug-22 Cumberland 99 99 L-6613 Wind 31-Dec-25 Wind SIS in progress NRIS 22-T 668 03-Aug-22 Antigonish 94.4 94.4 L-7003 01-De...
AI summary The text presents a list of energy projects with details such as project numbers, dates, locations, capacities, and statuses, including SIS in progress and NRIS. These projects include wind and solar energy installations, as well as battery storage.
SIS Agreement in 28-T 697 28-Mar-23 Kings 50 50 43V Battery 15-Mar-26 NRIS Place SIS Agreement in D-29 699 21-Apr-23 Halifax 0.625 0.625 58H-431 Solar 31-Dec-24 N/A Place SIS Agreement in 30-D 700 21-Apr-23 Cape Breton 0.585 0.585 82S-303...
AI summary The document outlines several SIS Agreements related to energy projects in Nova Scotia, including battery and solar installations, with details on locations, capacities, and completion dates. These agreements are part of the 2023 10-Year System Outlook, providing a non-confidential overview of system planning and infrastructure developments.
Page 30 of 59 2023 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 4.1 System Impact Studies (SIS) 2 3 As outlined in Figure 12, a significant number of SIS have been completed or are in progress. Of 4 the SIS either in progress or complete, the...
AI summary The document discusses the progress of System Impact Studies (SIS) and the OATT Transmission Service Queue as of June 2023. SIS analyses are expanding to include EMT studies due to increased variable renewable generation and the phase-out of coal-fired generation. There are two active requests in the OATT Transmission Queue.
Page 32 of 59 2023 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL AND EMISSIONS REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS 2 3 5.1 Renewable Electricity Requirements 4 5 On July 9, 2021 the Province of Nova Scotia amended the Renewable Electrici...
AI summary Nova Scotia amended its Renewable Electricity Regulations in 2021 to require 80% renewable energy sales by 2030. NS Power is acquiring 1,100 GWh of renewable energy from independent power producers, with 372 MW of wind capacity awarded in August 2022. The amendments also allowed inclusion of COMFIT projects and removed the 'must-run' requirement for the Port Hawkesbury biomass facility.
From 17 2015 to 2019 the Company served 26.6 percent (2015), 28 percent (2016), 29 percent (2017), 30 18 percent (2018) and 30 percent (2019) of sales using qualifying renewable energy sources. 19 20 The Nova Scotia block of the Muskrat Fa...
AI summary The document outlines the percentage of sales using qualifying renewable energy sources from 2015 to 2019 and updates on the delivery of the Nova Scotia block of the Muskrat Falls energy project. It also references the Renewable Electricity Regulations and mentions the 2023 10-Year System Outlook, including a RES Compliance Forecast for 2024-2026.
near-term RES Compliance Forecast in Figure 14 illustrates the full amount of RES-eligible 2 energy forecast to be available to the Company for 2024-2026. 3 4 Figure 14: RES Compliance Forecast 5 RES Compliance Forecast31 2024 2025 2026 En...
AI summary The near-term RES Compliance Forecast for 2024-2026 shows that the Company is projected to have a surplus of renewable energy, with forecast RES percentage of sales reaching 53% in 2024, 65% in 2025, and 68% in 2026. The forecast includes contributions from various renewable energy sources and eligible pre-2001 IPPs.
11,500 35 28,000 11,500 35 2026-2029 104,000 44,000 2030 20,000 8,800 30 3 4 By 2030 SO2 emissions from generating electricity will have been reduced by 80 percent from 5 2005 levels. NOx emissions will have decreased by 73 percent and mer...
AI summary By 2030, SO2, NOx, and mercury emissions from electricity generation in Nova Scotia will be significantly reduced from 2005 levels. Reductions are being achieved through reduced thermal generation, fuel changes, and the use of technologies like Low-NOx Combustion Firing Systems and Powder Activated Carbon systems. A mercury recovery program was also offered by NS Power to reduce mercury waste.
200 100 0 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Existing Gas New Gas 3 4 5 As noted above, the province introduced the EGCCRA on October 27, 2021. 36 The EGCCRA 6 includes the 80 percent RES 2030 requirement in a...
AI summary The Environmental Goals and Climate Change Reduction Act (EGCCRA) was introduced in 2021, requiring an 80 percent RES by 2030, phasing out coal-fired electricity generation by 2030, and setting GHG reduction targets. In 2022, the Federal Government released a discussion paper on a potential Clean Electricity Standard (CES) to achieve net-zero electricity production by 2035.
1 Offsets/credits are being considered as an element of the CES framework, which would serve to 2 offset emissions from electricity generation in support of economy wide electrification. In parallel, 3 the OBPS emissions performance standa...
AI summary The document discusses the consideration of offsets/credits under the Clean Electricity Standard (CES) framework to support economy-wide electrification, alongside the review of OBPS emissions performance standards. NS Power is involved in consultations for a Clean Electricity Regulation under CEPA and is refining its electricity strategy to meet 2030 and 2035 targets, including RES and carbon pricing.
1 The PRM provides a basis for the minimum required firm generation NS Power must plan to 2 maintain to comply with NPCC reliability criteria; it does not represent the optimal or maximum 3 required capacity to serve other system requireme...
AI summary The text discusses the PRM and its role in ensuring minimum required firm generation for NS Power to meet reliability criteria. It highlights a severe cold weather event in February 2023, which tested system capacity, and explains the capacity contribution of renewable resources using ELCC and LOLE studies.
1 average ELCC of the wind currently installed on the NS Power system to be 19 percent. The 2 declining marginal ELCC value of adding new wind to the NS Power system was determined to 3 be 11 to 9 percent. In the 2020 IRP, the Company used...
AI summary The document discusses the Effective Load-Carrying Capacity (ELCC) of wind and solar resources in Nova Scotia, noting that existing wind has an 18% capacity value, new wind has a 10% capacity value, and solar has very limited ELCC due to poor correlation with peak load hours. It also references the inclusion of ERIS wind resources and a 10-year load and resources outlook based on capacity changes and demand-side management forecasts.
e a medium-term outlook of the capacity resources anticipated to 6 be available to the Company compared to expected customer demand. 7 8 Figure 19: NS Power 10-Year Load and Resources Outlook 47 9 Load and Resources Outlook for NSPI - Wint...
AI summary The document presents a 10-year load and resources outlook for NSPI, showing projected firm peak demand, required reserves, and total capacity needs from 2023/2024 to 2032/2033. It also includes existing resources and planned biomass additions.
2,555 2,555 2,555 2,555 2,555 2,555 2,555 2,555 2,555 2,555 Firm Resource Additions: G Biomass 43 H Hydro -101 101 I Tidal 2 New Wind - Rate Base J Procurement 19 18 K Other Wind Projects 13 L Additions - Wind 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Addit...
AI summary The document outlines resource additions and retirements for the 2023 10-Year System Outlook, including biomass, hydro, wind, battery, and coal-to-gas conversions. It emphasizes the need for reliable performance before retirements are fully decommissioned.
1 The scope of the study included the assessment of the following four options: 2 3 Option #1 ‐ Restore L-5531, L-5532, L-5535, and L-5541 to 50ºC Temperature Rating 4 Option #2 ‐ Upgrade L-5531, L-5532, L-5535, and L-5541 to 80ºC Temperat...
AI summary The study evaluates six options for upgrading or replacing existing 69 kV infrastructure with higher capacity lines or new 138 kV circuits. The scope was expanded to consider electrification impacts but was paused due to the Rate Base Procurement (RBP) process and subsequent System Impact Study requests. Work will resume once these studies are completed.
nue to be on hold pending completion of 25 these studies. The scope of this study will be reviewed based on the outcomes of the studied 26 projects as well as the updated 2023 Load Forecast. 27 DATE FILED: June 30, 2023 Page 58 of 59 2023...
AI summary The document discusses the 2023 10-Year System Outlook, which is based on the Evergreen IRP update and Scenario CE1-E1-R2. It highlights NS Power's commitment to adapting its Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) to reflect changes in the planning environment and ongoing environmental policies.