Topic:"Renewable Energy" in M12349

8 4.1 Historical Class Sales and Energy Data .................................................................... 16 9 4.2 Weather Data ..........................................................................................................

AI summary The document outlines sections analyzing historical energy sales, weather data, economic factors, end-use trends (including heat pumps, EVs, solar PV), and price data. It emphasizes load forecasting, renewable integration, and demand-side management as key themes in the regulatory proceeding.

ce Data ................................................................................................................. 51 21 4.5.1 Demand Side Management .....................................................................................

AI summary The text outlines sections of a 2025 Load Forecast Report, including demand-side management, renewable energy integration, and sector-specific analyses for residential, commercial, and industrial/municipal sectors. The document is redacted, with confidential information removed.

REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted 31 7.3 Other Industrial Rate Classes .................................................................................... 69 32 7.4 Municipal .....................

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report outlines system requirements, peak demand analysis, solar impact assessments, and sensitivity studies. It includes sections on industrial rate classes, municipal demand, system losses, and comparisons with the Evergreen IRP, focusing on forecasting methodologies and integrated resource planning.

.......... 26 17 Figure 15: Household Size ........................................................................................................ 27 18 Figure 16: Residential Economic Drivers ................................................

AI summary The text lists figures analyzing economic drivers, heat pump adoption, electric vehicle (EV) impact, and solar photovoltaic (PV) effects on energy demand. It includes forecasts for residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, as well as comparisons of heating technologies and EV load modeling.

energy forecasts derived from 26 the residential and commercial SAE models are then combined with an econometric-based 27 industrial forecast and customer specific forecasts for NS Power’s large customers to develop an 28 energy forecast f...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report indicates increased near-term Net System Requirement (NSR) due to changes in Renewable to Retail (RTR) sales, with mid- to long-term growth reduced by lower EV sales, higher RTR and behind-the-meter solar adoption, and Demand Side Management (DSM) initiatives. Annual NSR is projected to decrease by 0.2% between 2025–2035, while peak demand remains stable near-term despite electrification trends.

R activities will reduce the peak. Compared to 2024, the peak forecast is very similar in the near 17 term (the delayed start of RTR does not impact the peak forecast as there is no decrease to the DATE: June 27, 2025 Page 8 of 94 REDACTED...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report indicates system peak demand will increase by 1.1% annually, with near-term forecasts similar to 2024 but long-term adjustments due to revised EV impact. RTR activities are expected to reduce peak demand without affecting short-term forecasts.

Page 12 of 94 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted 1 • EV adoption rates have been adjusted to align with recent trends and the elimination of 2 federal and provincial rebates. Please refer to Sect...

AI summary NS Power's 2025 Load Forecast Report outlines updates to EV adoption rates, work-from-home trends, temperature impacts, and the Capacity Value Study. Stakeholder consultations with NSUARB, CA, SBA, IG, E1, and EE addressed residential load estimates, solar integration, RTR impacts, and forecast variances.

and actual average use derived from NS Power billing data. 16 17 In the case of end uses where there is little historical activity or where future behaviour is expected 18 to vary significantly from the existing data set due to targeted pr...

AI summary The text discusses the methodology used for modeling end uses with limited historical data or significant future behavior changes, such as EVs and rooftop solar PV. It references economic forecasts from major banks for the 2025 Load Forecast Report.

1 items to be tracked more directly to help fine-tune future forecasts. The PV forecast has been 2 updated based on actual installations in 2024. Key end uses are discussed individually below. 3 4 As with the 2024 Load Forecast, the foreca...

AI summary The document discusses the growth of heat pump usage in Nova Scotia, citing factors like grants and financing programs, and references the hybrid adoption scenario used in forecasts. It also notes the update of the PV forecast based on 2024 installations and the use of E3's load shape forecasts for space heating and EVs.

REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted 1 4.4.4 Solar Generation (PV) 2 3 Solar generation consists of two main types – distributed small-scale solar (mainly rooftop) that 4 falls under NS Power’s net...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report discusses solar generation in Nova Scotia, noting that distributed solar installations (under net metering) have grown to 11,082 by 2024, with 101 MW of capacity. Solar growth is expected to continue due to incentives like Property Assessed Clean Energy and Canada Greener Homes, projecting 930 MW of installed capacity by 2035. However, solar generation does not reduce peak demand as it occurs outside of system peak times.

1 4.4.5 New Technologies 2 3 The 2025 Load Forecast does not assume a significant amount of distributed solar/battery storage 4 combinations or storage only deployments. The cost of home batteries is still relatively expensive, 5 in the ra...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast does not assume significant adoption of distributed solar/battery storage due to high costs, with gas generators being a more cost-effective solution for backup power. Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology is still in development and not widely available, though some vehicles have limited capabilities. As battery technology improves, adoption may increase, but timelines are uncertain.

5 43.4 32.1 30.7 24.5 2032 73.2 46.8 8.3 42.9 31.2 30.3 23.8 2033 71.3 43.4 7.7 41.8 28.9 29.5 22.1 2034 69.1 44.0 7.8 40.5 29.4 28.6 22.4 2035 66.0 42.5 7.5 38.7 28.3 27.3 21.6 2 3 The methodology used to determine the DSM coefficient onl...

AI summary The text discusses the methodology for determining the DSM coefficient, noting that it works best for consistent historical DSM levels and may need revision if future forecasts change significantly. It also mentions a third-party application for a Licensed Retail Supplier (LRS) under the Renewable to Retail (RTR) tariffs starting in 2026, subject to regulatory conditions.

pplier licence issued by the NSUARB included a condition that no sales can occur before the effective date prescribed by the Governor in Council. In addition, it was a condition of the license DATE: June 27, 2025 Page 55 of 94 REDACTED (CO...

AI summary The document discusses the 2025 Load Forecast Report, which outlines energy production and load distribution for the RTR market. It includes a forecast of 500 GWh of wind energy production by 2027 and details the load distribution across customer classes, with NS Power providing top-up energy under the Energy Balancing Service tariff.

able that was added in 2020 continues to be used for the years 2020-2024, but 22 has been removed from the forecast years. The variable helps to explain changes in consumption 23 patterns over the 2020-2024 time period, but it is expected...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report indicates that weather-adjusted sales in 2024 were close to forecast, but warm weather reduced sales by 104 GWh. Load is expected to decline from 2026 to 2033 due to migration to the RTR market and solar adoption, but will increase afterward due to EV load. DSM and efficiency improvements are expected to reduce sales over time.

ebound 19 in 2022. The COVID variable that was used in the General rate class model in prior years has 20 been removed in the 2025 forecast as the historic data captures the impact to sales. 21 DATE: June 27, 2025 Page 63 of 94 REDACTED (C...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report discusses changes in load forecasts, noting that the impact of RTR and solar has increased, while EV load has decreased, leading to lower growth compared to the 2024 forecast. The Small General Service load is forecasted to grow at 1.5% annually, slightly lower than the 1.8% in the 2024 forecast.

he 2024 Load Forecast, the heating penetration from the 8 residential class was used as the end-use intensities are similar. 9 10 Figure 49: Historical and Forecast Annual Small General Sales 11 12 13 Please refer to Appendix B for tables...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report discusses changes in load demand, highlighting a 0.8% annual decrease in General class load over the 10-year forecast period. Factors include reduced EV load, commercial energy impacts from hybrid heating, and the influence of DSM programs and increased efficiency. Sales shifting to the RTR market and higher solar generation are expected to reduce sales significantly by 2035.

g to the RTR 4 market (-165 GWh per year), and higher solar generation will reduce sales by a further 237 GWh 5 by 2035. 6 7 Figure 50: Historical and Forecast Annual General Demand Sales 8 9 10 Please refer to Appendix B for tables with a...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report discusses the impact of Renewable to Retail (RTR) market participation and solar generation on electricity demand, projecting a decrease in sales by 7.3% between 2025 and 2035. Large General Service class forecasts are based on customer surveys and historical data, with growth expected from institutional facilities, particularly hospital expansions.

Page 67 of 94 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted 1 7.0 INDUSTRIAL AND MUNICIPAL SECTORS 2 3 The forecast models for the Small Industrial and Medium Industrial classes are econometric-based 4 mode...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report discusses the forecast models for the Small Industrial and Medium Industrial sectors, which are based on economic variables such as provincial manufacturing GDP and employment. The Small Industrial class is expected to grow slightly annually due to economic growth, offset by a shift in load to RTR.

Page 68 of 94 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted 1 7.2 Medium Industrial 2 3 Figure 54 depicts historical and projected sales for the Medium Industrial class. Load in this class 4 has been flat s...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report discusses historical and projected sales for the Medium Industrial class, noting flat load since 2014 and a projected decline due to migration to the RTR market. Other Industrial rate classes are also outlined, with forecasting methods involving customer surveys and historical data.

Page 69 of 94 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted 1 electricity requirements over the next three-year period. Details on planned production levels or 2 equipment changes help inform expectations o...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report discusses electricity requirements over the next three years, noting that load levels are expected to be flat. However, one major customer is forecast to increase load by a significant amount in 2025. Load migration to the RTR market is expected to reach 34 GWh by 2027, though there is uncertainty around new industrial projects and their impact on load growth.

1 9.0 NET SYSTEM REQUIREMENT 2 3 The NSR is the energy required to supply the sum of residential, commercial, and industrial 4 electricity sales, plus the associated system losses, within the province of Nova Scotia. Loads 5 served by indu...

AI summary The Net System Requirement (NSR) for 2024 was 11,326, with the largest variances attributed to weather and a single large customer. Forecasts indicate a slight annual decline in NSR from 2025 to 2035, driven by new customers and EV adoption, offset by solar, DSM, and RTR initiatives.

, and with solar, DSM and RTR migration 19 offsetting sales. Annual NSR is shown below in Figure 58. Forecast NSR values and the 20 contribution to NSR from the different sectors can be found in Appendix A. 21 DATE: June 27, 2025 Page 74 o...

AI summary The text discusses the 2025 Load Forecast Report, including historical and forecast annual NSR values, and provides a breakdown of the forecast components from 2025 to 2035, including contributions from various sectors such as solar, DSM, RTR migration, and EVs.

CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Appendix B Page 12 of 34 Small General Model Statistics Model Statistics Iterations 14 Adjusted Observations 120 Deg. of Freedom for 109 Error R-Squared 0.954 Adjusted R-Squared 0...

AI summary The Small General Demand customer forecast model is constructed similarly to the residential model, including heat pump programs within the SAE model. Adjustments outside the regression include estimates for other commercial and industrial growth programs, PV, EV, RTR, and DSM.

sidential model (including heat pump programs inside the SAE model). Adjustments done outside the regression include estimates for other commercial and industrial growth programs, PV, EV, RTR and DSM. Historically the XHeat, XCool and XOth...

AI summary The document provides a residential load forecast model for 2025 and 2035, incorporating adjustments for EVs, solar, RTR, and DSM. The model calculates load based on average use per customer and customer count, with projections showing increases in energy use despite some reductions from efficiency programs.

VED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Appendix B Page 19 of 34 General Service Model Fit General Demand 2025-2035 Reconciliation The general demand class, which makes up the largest portion of the commercial sector, is forecast as gross total sal...

AI summary The document discusses the reconciliation of general demand load forecasts for 2025 and 2035, including adjustments for factors such as RTR, EV load, solar, and DSM. It highlights changes in load and the impact of various factors on overall demand.

drogen facilities could all have a significant impact on energy and EVs, hydrogen facilities and batteries could have a significant impact on peak. Figure D8 shows the relative impact of these items. Figure D8: Relative Impact of Inputs 20...

AI summary The document discusses the potential impacts of various energy-related factors on energy and peak demand in Nova Scotia for the years 2025 and 2035, including demand-side management, solar PV, EVs, hydrogen production, batteries, and weather/economics scenarios.

8 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 9 of 19 Behind the Meter Solar • Small scale solar uptake continues to be strong: as of 2024 approximately 97 MW of solar generation has been installed...

AI summary The document discusses the growth of behind-the-meter solar installations in Nova Scotia, noting increased uptake and legislative changes leading to a higher long-term forecast. It also addresses the Renewable to Retail (RTR) program, with updated forecasts for sales and uncertainty around its impact.

12 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 13 of 19 Forecast Comparison – Commercial • Similar to the Residential forecast, Commercial sales will be impacted by slower EV sales, increased behin...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report Appendix E discusses forecast comparisons for Commercial, Industrial, and Energy sectors. It notes impacts from slower EV sales, increased behind-the-meter solar production, and higher RTR sales, leading to changes in load forecasts and sales trends through 2034.

1 Request IR-2: 2 3 Please describe the scope of the Time Varying Pricing Pilots (TVP) and Distributed Energy 4 Resources Integration Roadmap (DERIR) as it relates to the business case for the 5 deployment of behind-the-meter battery energ...

AI summary The Time Varying Pricing (TVP) pilot aims to use dynamic pricing signals to support behind-the-meter battery storage by enabling load shifting and peak shaving. The DERIR roadmap seeks stakeholder input on integrating distributed energy resources, including battery storage, with a final report due by September 30, 2025 (M12177). Considerations include export restrictions under current tariffs and ongoing rate design discussions.

1 Request IR-22: 2 3 Figure 76 provides a comparison of the 2022 Evergreen Integrated Resource Plan 4 (IRP) Scenarios to the 2024 and 2025 load forecast. 5 6 (a) Has the Evergreen IRP E1 – Current Policy and Trends scenario been updated to...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Energy Board (NSEB) questions whether the Evergreen IRP E1 scenario reflects updated electrification policies and if NS Power's IRP and load forecasts align. NS Power responds that the E1 scenario is based on the 2022 forecast but the 2025 forecast incorporates current policies. Forecasts are deemed aligned despite small differences in firm peak (28 MW) by 2035, though energy forecasts show greater variation.

2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) NSPI Responses to SBA Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-5: 2 3 Refer to Report, Section 4.4.4, Solar Generation (PV), page 44 of 94 and respond to the 4 following: 5 6 (a) Figures 31...

AI summary NSPI reports that 2% of customers are net-metering participants as of December 31, 2024, citing the 2024 Net Metering Report and Commercial Net Metering Program Report. The response addresses SBA's query on customer distribution.

2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) NSPI Responses to SBA Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-6: 2 3 Refer to Report, Section 4.4.4, Solar Generation (PV), page 43 of 94 and respond to the 4 following: 5 6 (a) Of the new...

AI summary NSPI responds to SBA's request regarding the 2025 Load Forecast Report, projecting 3-6% commercial solar installations by 2035, negligible small general and industrial contributions, and no explicit consideration of incentives or barriers beyond existing programs. Growth assumes 15% annual install increases.

2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) NSPI Responses to SBA Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-8: 2 3 Refer to Report, Section 4.6, Renewable to Retail, page 56 of 94 and respond to the following: 4 5 (a) Will RTR-supplie...

AI summary NSPI responds to SBA Information Request IR-8 regarding the 2025 Load Forecast Report, stating Renewall sets RTR electricity costs, and NS Power cannot compare total costs. The response references the Energy Balancing Service Tariff and Exhibit R-10(ii) from M10293, noting customer usage impacts average costs and that balancing/backup charges apply via specific tariffs.

harges based on usage. The Energy Balancing Service Tariff 29 and Standby Service Tariff provides the charges and credits applied to the LRS for 30 balancing and backup services. Date Filed: August 19, 2025 NSPI (SBA) IR-8 Page 1 of 2 2025...

AI summary NSPI explains that non-participating customers' rates are based on forecasts from General Rate Applications and FAM AA/BA Riders, with variances affecting financials. Participating customers are addressed separately. The Mersey River Wind project by Renewall is the sole renewable source for RTR licensing, with no other suppliers identified.

2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) NSPI Responses to Solar Nova Scotia Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-1: 2 3 Please provide the summer peak demand for the years 2024, 2030 and 2035 (both exclusive 4 and inclusive o...

AI summary The document provides peak demand figures for 2024, 2030, and 2035, both inclusive and exclusive of behind-the-meter solar generation, based on the 2025 Load Forecast Report. The data is sourced from referenced reports and includes footnotes detailing the methodology.

2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) NSPI Responses to Solar Nova Scotia Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 from behind-the-meter solar for 2035 is 8.8 percent. The RES contribution was calculated 2 using the following formula: 3 4...

AI summary NSPI calculates the RES contribution for 2035 at 8.8% using a formula involving behind-the-meter solar generation, net system requirements, and losses. The report assumes no curtailment of behind-the-meter solar in 2035, citing data from the 2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349).

the expected rate of inflation. Date Filed: August 19, 2025 NSPI (Synapse) IR-10 Page 1 of 1 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIA...

AI summary NSPI responds to Synapse's IR-11 request regarding the 2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349), stating that the Renewable to Retail (RTR) program does not impact peak load forecasts as NSPI must serve the full peak demand of customers if required.

ailable for inclusion in the 2026 Load Forecast. However, NS Power 27 expects the results of the study will be available for inclusion in either the 2026 or 2027 28 Load Forecast. Date Filed: August 19, 2025 NSPI (Synapse) IR-13 Page 1 of...

AI summary The document discusses the need to update the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) study, focusing on the interactive effects of clean resources such as wind, solar, battery energy storage, and demand response. This was highlighted in a Board decision and supported by NS Power in its 10 Year System Outlook.

Updated examination of the ELCC values for demand response programs using program details and measured results from NS Power’s (CPP and TVP) and E1’s current demand response programs. 3. Assessment of the seasonal ELCC contributions for so...

AI summary The document outlines an updated examination of ELCC values for demand response programs using data from NS Power and E1, and an assessment of seasonal ELCC contributions from solar, wind, hydro, and storage during summer. The update is driven by stakeholder requests and the need to align with current programs in Nova Scotia.

PV Forecast Based on 15% growth Values as of 2024: 11082 110 Total Cumulative Total Cumulative Comm Total Cumulative Res Cumulative Res Comm Cumulative Cumulative Capacity Res Install Install Total New Total Solar Load Year Installs (MW) G...

AI summary The text provides a forecast of photovoltaic (PV) installations and related energy metrics from 2025 to 2032, including cumulative installations, total capacity, and solar load values. The data shows increasing trends in both PV installations and energy generation over time.

D) 2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL GWh Res Comm Ind Other Losses NSR 2025 Forecast 5,289 3,135 2,258 148 777 11,607 Model 303 251 38 -77 28 544 New Customers 403 36 43...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) includes NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests. It outlines various factors affecting load forecasts, including demand-side management (DSM), electric vehicle (EV) growth, and solar energy impacts, with a focus on residential, commercial, and industrial load segments.

0.27 † Economics 0.381 0.58 Wind at Peak 0.032 0.1 Sensitivity: 2026 Peak Sensitivity: 2026 No DSM Total Sales Sensitivity: 2035 No DSM Total Sales 1% 3% † Monthly HDD † Monthly CDD † Economics 8% 38% 49% 47% 17% 47% 15% 75%

AI summary The text presents a sensitivity analysis related to wind energy at peak times and total sales under different scenarios, including the impact of demand-side management (DSM) and economic factors. It also references monthly heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) as variables affecting energy demand.

The 2025 forecast predicts a 242 gigawatt-hour (GWh) decrease—2.1 percent—in the net system requirement (NSR) from 2025 to 2035. NS Power lays out the components of this change in Figure 59 of its report, as shown in Table 1. The “Model” g...

AI summary The 2025 forecast predicts a 2.1% (242 GWh) decrease in net system requirement (NSR) from 2025 to 2035, driven by electrification, EV growth, and new customers, offset by rooftop solar, DSM, and RTR sales. Hybrid heating adjustments further reduce NSR.

ctrification Large customer projects 9 50 43 Hybrid model adjustment -202 -85 -287 Renewable to Retail (RTR) -117 -176 -128 135 -269 Demand-side management (DSM) -265 -202 -53 -3 -51 -575 2035 forecast 5,205 3,014 2,187 203 755 11,365 Sour...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast by Synapse Energy Economics Inc. indicates a 10.4% increase in firm peak demand, driven primarily by electrification. Key adjustments include Hybrid model, Renewable to Retail (RTR), and Demand-side Management (DSM) components, with the forecast showing slower growth due to reduced EV impact modeling.

view Table 3 shows the forecast energy use by sector. Overall, municipal and other load is the only sector with a projected increase. The remaining sectors show modest decreases between 2025 and 2035. Table 3. Sector energy requirements (G...

AI summary Table 3 forecasts sectoral energy use, showing municipal/other load growth while other sectors decline. DSM is projected to reduce 2035 load by 575 GWh (5%), with Synapse noting forecast assumptions about RTR and solar adoption. The analysis questions specific forecast components and suggests improvements.

s for each of the sectors. 2.1. Major Inputs and Regression Models In addition to changes in end-use technology, the forecast is influenced by economic, demographic, and weather-related factors. Changes in overall economic health drive the...

AI summary NSPI's forecast considers economic, demographic, and weather factors, using CBoC projections and adjusting housing completions. Electrification of heating/cooling increased residential energy use by 5.8%, while new customers added 7.6%. Regression models are deemed acceptable, though alternative models could be explored.

SAE regression model results, and the other columns reflect various adjustments to the forecast. 12 2025 Load Forecast, Appendix B, pages 2, 8-9. 13 2025 Load Forecast, Appendix B, pages 2, 9. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Evidence Regard...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. provides evidence on Nova Scotia Power’s 2025 Load Forecast, including regression model results and a table showing residential load forecasts for 2025 and 2035. Adjustments for factors like EVs, solar, RTR, and DSM are detailed, with DSM capturing a portion of residential demand.

t, page 38. 33 Response to Synapse IR-9(e). 34 2025 Load Forecast, Figure 29. 35 2025 Load Forecast, Figure 29. 36 2025 Load Forecast, Figure 3, Figure 29, Figure 65. 37 Response to Synapse IR-9h. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Evidence Re...

AI summary Synapse recommends NSPI monitor EV sales impacts, adjust forecasts, detail managed charging assumptions, and develop incentives for managed charging as EV adoption grows. Solar generation forecasts show increased installations and a projected 1,023 GWh load reduction, with updated coincidence factors based on 2024 data.

generation with monthly system peaks, NSPI confirmed that it had updated the coincidence factors based on 2024 data. These factors are based on both weather patterns and the timing of system peak. 39 Recommendations and considerations NSPI...

AI summary NSPI updated solar coincidence factors using 2024 data and recommends ongoing evaluation of solar projections. Solar-plus-battery systems may have limited near-term impact but warrant re-evaluation. New customer load growth is projected to increase residential demand by 7.6% by 2035. Rate design and incentives could influence solar adoption.

cific inputs for this variable for 2020–2024 in the residential model could be better supported, Synapse agrees with NSPI’s overall approach in phasing out reliance on the separate COVID-19 variable. 2.3. Commercial Sector The commercial s...

AI summary Synapse agrees with NSPI on phasing out the COVID-19 variable in residential load forecasts. Commercial sector load declines due to RTR adoption, lower EV forecasts, and higher solar generation. Industrial forecasts use historical data and surveys, with subsectors showing mixed trends, including flat load for large industrial customers.

ign or other programmatic options. 5. NSPI should continue to evaluate and update its solar installation projections and coincidence factors for solar so they align with the latest data. 6. NSPI should begin to incorporate the impacts of r...

AI summary The text outlines several recommendations for NSPI regarding the accuracy and comprehensiveness of its load forecasting and analysis, including updates to solar projections, incorporation of rate design impacts, and scenario analysis for uncertain technologies and programs.

ially for peak management. 7. NSPI should validate the use of new home construction as a proxy for customer growth, addressing concerns about potential shortcomings of this proxy variable. 8. We ask that NSPI reassess its modeling approach...

AI summary The document outlines several requests for NSPI to refine its load forecasting and modeling approaches, including validating proxies for customer growth, reassessing the impact of the pandemic on residential load, and considering the effects of solar, DSM, and industrial electrification on load forecasts. It also emphasizes the need to explore real-time rates and time-of-use rates to manage peak load increases.

gs. 16. We ask NSPI to investigate what can be done with time-of-use rates and other measures to mitigate the peak load increases for all these components, especially for the C&I sectors. 17. NSPI should conduct an analysis of portfolio EL...

AI summary The text outlines several recommendations for NSPI regarding load management, including investigating time-of-use rates, analyzing ELCC values for demand response, evaluating impacts of electrification and EVs, and developing scenarios for uncertain future technologies such as heat pumps and demand-side management.

previous Evidence, and it remains important 26 because of the forecast surge in overall electric water heater saturation. While NSPI 27 has argued that current uptake of heat pump water heaters is too low to warrant 28 separate treatment,...

AI summary The Board disagrees with NSPI's argument that low heat pump water heater adoption justifies omitting them from modeling. Explicit modeling is necessary for accuracy due to their distinct load characteristics, aligning with electrification goals and preparing for their growing market presence over the next decade.

Page 6 of 17 2025 Load Forecast Report Reply Evidence Non-Confidential 1 NS Power Response: 2 3 NS Power agrees with this recommendation and will add a separate category in the intensity 4 calculations for heat pump water heaters. 5 6 2.1....

AI summary NS Power agrees to adjust load forecasts for heat pump water heaters, update solar projections annually, and clarify that managed charging strategies will be addressed through rate design rather than load forecasting. Responses align with recommendations on EV sales monitoring and solar coincidence factors.

1 NS Power Response: 2 3 The forecast provided by the current Licensed Retail Supplier (LRS) is used in the forecast, and is 4 the best available information on expected industrial RTR participation, and customer participation 5 in general...

AI summary NS Power states the RTR forecast in its report aligns with the LRS's publicly submitted forecast under M10293, citing Section 11 of the Board Electricity Retailers Regulations requiring LRS compliance plans detailing renewable electricity sales forecasts, purchases, and certifications.

pies of the certification required in subsection 17(2) from each renewable 30 low-impact electricity generation facility that the licence holder owns or 31 operates; 32 33 (f) forecasts of renewable low-impact electricity generation at the...

AI summary The text outlines requirements for certification from renewable low-impact electricity generation facilities, forecasts of generation at interconnection points, and transmission/distribution loss forecasts, as part of a 2025 Load Forecast Report Reply Evidence submission.

Page 13 of 17 2025 Load Forecast Report Reply Evidence Non-Confidential 1 expected rate of inflation for 2030 onward is a reasonably proxy until more certainty is achieved 2 as time goes on. Where there is an expectation of rate changes in...

AI summary The SBA criticizes NSPI's load forecast for potentially relying on outdated data, risking overstated industrial load projections. NS Power defends its assumptions as more accurate than those from CBoC and Statistics Canada. A recommendation for a DER Potential Assessment is proposed for the 2026 Load Forecast Report.

Potential Assessment is undertaken to identify the 29 growth potential of DERs, and where the grid can (or cannot) accommodate them, 30 to inform the 2026 Load Forecast Report. 24 23 M12349, Document 99295, page 2. 24 M12349, Document 9929...

AI summary The text discusses a potential assessment of DERs' growth and grid accommodation to inform the 2026 Load Forecast Report, citing documents M12349, 99295, and 99296. The assessment aims to evaluate where DERs can be integrated into the grid and their growth potential.

1 NS Power Response: 2 3 SNS/ESC elaborated on their expectations of a DER Potential Assessment, providing the 4 following: 5 6 It is an object of the NSIESO to “[p]rior to, or as part of, conducting an integrated 7 resource planning exerc...

AI summary NS Power emphasizes the need for a DER Potential Assessment to inform the 2026 Load Forecast Report and NSIESO planning. The assessment aims to evaluate DER growth potential, grid compatibility, and cost-effective demand-side management under the Public Utilities Act, prioritizing grid constraint alleviation.

at is probable. NS Power believes the data and the 25 assumptions used in the Load Forecast are reasonable for the purpose of the Load Forecast. With 26 respect to “identifying where the deployment of DERs could bring most value”, the Comp...

AI summary NS Power asserts that the Load Forecast's data and assumptions are reasonable, arguing that assessing DERs' value lies outside its scope. The text suggests a DER Potential Assessment should inform the upcoming IRP by IESO-NS, which plans to develop its first IRP for Nova Scotia, sharing its approach early in 2026.

-4- increasing on a per EV basis more so than the previous Reports. This forecast is worth revisiting for the 2026 Load Forecast Report to confirm accuracy. In the 2023 decision, the Board did not agree with NS Power’s attribution of the C...

AI summary The document discusses load forecast variances, noting the Board's rejection of NS Power's pandemic and heat pump attribution for 2022 discrepancies, while acknowledging heat pumps as a partial factor. It highlights reduced unexplained variance in 2024 and projects future demand declines due to renewable retail shifts and solar adoption, with General and Medium Industrial demand expected to fall by 7.3% and 1.4% respectively between 2025-2035.

a 2% annual increase from 2030 onwards as arbitrary. The SBA recommended NS Power incorporate measured factors to project long term sales, including load growth, generator mix, transmission upgrades. The SBA had concerns with NS Power’s ap...

AI summary The SBA criticized NS Power's load forecast methodology for being arbitrary and lacking transparency, particularly regarding electrification data. ESC and SNS recommended a DER potential assessment and lower capital cost assumptions for battery storage. Synapse praised the report but suggested improvements for future forecasts.

1. Trade Tariffs: Analyse how 2025 U.S. trade tariffs affect the economic forecast. If the Conference Board forecast does not capture these impacts, NS Power should create its own method to incorporate the effects of tariffs. 2. Residentia...

AI summary The text outlines NS Power's recommendations for improving forecasting methodologies, including modeling trade tariffs, heat pump impacts, EV adoption, solar + battery integration, and refining housing and industrial load projections. It emphasizes data validation, scenario analysis, and alignment with emerging technologies.

ted annually., Therefore, according to NS Power, it was appropriate to revise the EV forecast in response to the end of government incentives. -7- Findings NS Power’s rebuttal stated, “Each annual Load Forecast report reflects continuous i...

AI summary NS Power revised its EV forecast due to the end of government incentives. The Board agrees that its Load Forecast reports have improved methodologies and values intervenor input. NS Power must implement agreed recommendations, monitor housing completions, and investigate unexplained residential sales variance. The Board acknowledges NS Power's model adjustments for policy changes affecting electrification and technology adoption.

8 July, 2025 NOVA SCOTIA ENERGY BOARD C/O CRYSTAL HENWOOD ([email protected]) Dear Ms. Henwood, RE: Information Requests – NS Power 2025 Load Forecast Report (M12349) Please see below Information Requests to NS Power in the 202...

AI summary The letter from Leone Benson-King to Crystal Henwood outlines three information requests related to NS Power's 2025 Load Forecast Report proceeding (M12349). It asks about NS Power's role post-NSIESO formation, the scope of TVP and DERIR for behind-the-meter battery storage, and access to battery installation cost data for Efficiency One programs.

July 14, 2025 NOVA SCOTIA ENERGY BOARD C/O CRYSTAL HENWOOD ([email protected]) Dear Ms. Henwood, RE: SOLAR NOVA SCOTIA (SNS) - NOTICE OF INTERVENTION - M12349 SNS is a not-for-profit society whose mission is to promote and faci...

AI summary Solar Nova Scotia (SNS) intervenes in the NS Power 2025 Load Forecast proceeding (M12349) to advocate for customer-sited solar and energy storage integration in Nova Scotia’s energy system, aligning with the province’s renewable energy and emissions reduction targets. SNS emphasizes the role of these technologies in long-term supply-mix planning, demand-side flexibility, and system reliability.

July 17, 2025 NOVA SCOTIA ENERGY BOARD C/O CRYSTAL HENWOOD ([email protected]) Dear Ms. Henwood, RE: SOLAR NOVA SCOTIA (SNS) – Information Requests - M12349 Please find below Information Requests to NS Power from Solar Nova Scotia (SNS)...

AI summary Solar Nova Scotia (SNS) requests NS Power to provide summer peak demand data, assess the impact of Time Variable Pricing (TVP) on battery installation, clarify assumptions about residential and non-residential behind-the-meter solar, and address curtailment and RES contributions in the 2025 Load Forecast proceeding (M12349).

elative to the estimates in prior years’ models? What are the 16 implications of any such differences? 17 d. Please explain how it is possible that the historical data in the General rate class model 18 captures COVID impact to sales, wher...

AI summary The document outlines regulatory requests to NS Power (NSPI) regarding rate model assumptions, EV impact on load forecasts, data sources, rebate effects, and managed charging. Questions focus on historical data discrepancies, EV classification, methodology, and data incorporation from external reports.

ort. 3 h. Please confirm whether managed charging is incorporated into the 2025 forecast. If it is 4 not, please explain. If NS Power has forecasted managed charging, please provide this 5 information. 6 Request IR-10: 7 Price Forecast (Se...

AI summary The text outlines regulatory requests to NS Power regarding managed charging forecasts, electricity price increases, renewable-to-retail (RTR) impacts on peak load, AMI prevalence, ELCC study timelines, and DSM potential based on E1’s 2019 study. Requests focus on clarifying assumptions, data sources, and timelines for key planning documents.

Date Filed: 07/28/2025 Synapse (NSPI) Page 5 of 12 1 ii. How did the potential study compare to actual demand side management results 2 for the years 2021-2024? Does NS Power and/or E1 believe that the 2019 3 Potential Study accurately pre...

AI summary The text outlines requests for information regarding the accuracy of the 2019 Potential Study on demand-side management (DSM), solar generation data, and new technologies like home batteries. It questions whether DSM projections were met, seeks updates to the study, and asks about assumptions, solar capacity factors, battery cost declines, and compensation for energy export. Topics include DSM evaluation, solar forecasting, and emerging technologies.

nformation about the subsets of customers enrolled in the pilot 28 program? 29 b) The price elasticity values have changed significantly from the 2024 Load Forecast Report, 30 (“2024 Report”) M11689, Exhibit N-1, Section 4.5 Price Data, pa...

AI summary The text includes questions about customer enrollment in a pilot program, changes in price elasticity data from the 2024 Load Forecast Report, and the potential impacts of the Renewable to Retail (RTR) project on energy costs, delays, and wind generation sources.

s in the small business classes? 43 c) Please identify the wind generation source referenced on pages 55-56. 44 i) Have any other suppliers submitted applications to NSUARB for approval?

AI summary The text contains questions about small business classifications, a wind generation source reference on pages 55-56, and inquiries about other suppliers submitting applications to NSUARB. No substantive arguments or data are provided in the excerpt.

September 10, 2025 NOVA SCOTIA ENERGY BOARD C/O CRYSTAL HENWOOD ([email protected]) Dear Ms. Henwood, RE: Submissions by Intervenors, 2025 Load Forecast Report (M12349) Joint Submission by ENERGY STORAGE CANADA (ESC), & SOLAR NOVA SCOTIA...

AI summary Energy Storage Canada and Solar Nova Scotia jointly recommend a DER Potential Assessment to inform the 2026 Load Forecast Report and oppose downward revisions to electrification-driven load growth projections without evidence. They emphasize uncertainties in forecasting DERs and BTM solar/battery storage impacts.

wer’s control. Continued progress and additional work are required to more accurately forecast the deployment and effects of DERs and BTM solar and battery storage in the load forecasting process. 3. The interaction between three factors:...

AI summary The text critiques the 2025 Load Forecast Report for underestimating the impact of BTM solar and battery storage interactions on net-load profiles. It argues that the assumed 930 MW BTM solar deployment by 2035 lacks battery storage/curtailment, which could optimize integration. Current incentives like Canada Greener Homes Loan and SolarHomes may not persist, affecting deployment assumptions.

ery storage and/or curtailment and/or new approaches to the grid integration of DERs would optimize the integration of this level of solar in 2035. (And this has effects on load forecasting). 5. It is our perspective that the assumed scale...

AI summary The text argues that current assumptions about BTM battery storage deployment are too low, impacting load forecasting and solar integration by 2035. It also references the closure of the SolarHomes program and its implications for residential solar incentives.

for financial incentives. Efficiency Nova Scotia continues to accept new applications from registered non-profit organizations and charities.” https://www.efficiencyns.ca/programs-rebates/solarhomes 2 /4 5.2. We expect that the use- and bu...

AI summary Efficiency Nova Scotia accepts applications for non-profits and charities under SolarHomes. NSUARB directed NS Power to include BTM battery grid integration options in tariffs, which NS Power did not oppose. The 2025 Load Forecast Report overestimates residential battery costs, with non-residential and future costs expected to decrease due to economies of scale and innovation.

(as will federal investment tax credits where applicable). And, scale, workforce experience, and competition within the Nova Scotia market will further drive down installation costs. 6. It is an object of the NSIESO to “[p]rior to, or as p...

AI summary The NSIESO is tasked with conducting a DER Potential Assessment to inform the 2026 Load Forecast Report and procurement activities, emphasizing DER deployment to alleviate grid constraints. Fuel-switching to in-province electricity aligns with the province’s energy policy, including the Clean Power Plan’s focus on electrifying heating and transportation.

n Power Plan states that “[a] key driver for building a clean electricity system in Nova Scotia is to produce energy savings by electrifying heating and transportation for households” (pg. 15 of 25). 3 /4 Load Forecast revises electrificat...

AI summary The text emphasizes the importance of electrification in Nova Scotia's clean energy system, citing the need for cost-effective demand-side management (DSM) to reduce emissions and costs. It critiques a revised load forecast that downplays electrification growth, arguing it misaligns with government policy unless justified by evidence. The SNS Industry Committee and Energy Storage Canada recommend maintaining DSM procurement from franchise holders.

-4- increasing on a per EV basis more so than the previous Reports. This forecast is worth revisiting for the 2026 Load Forecast Report to confirm accuracy. In the 2023 decision, the Board did not agree with NS Power’s attribution of the C...

AI summary The document discusses load forecast variances, the Board's rejection of NS Power's pandemic and heat pump explanations for 2022 NSR discrepancies, and directives to re-evaluate unexplained variances. It notes reduced unexplained variance in 2024, declining demand projections due to RtR adoption and solar growth, and a 7.3% general demand decline by 2035.

outcome was forecast for Medium Industrial customers. Overall, between 2025 and 2035, General demand sales will decrease 7.3% and Medium Industrial demand sales? will have an average decline of 1.4%. The CA did not find fault in the applic...

AI summary The document discusses forecasts for electricity demand, noting a projected decline in General and Medium Industrial demand between 2025-2035. The CA recommended class-specific peak load forecasts and questioned the reliability of RtR sales projections. The SBA criticized NS Power’s arbitrary 2% annual electricity price increase assumption, advocating for data-driven long-term sales projections.

1. Trade Tariffs: Analyse how 2025 U.S. trade tariffs affect the economic forecast. If the Conference Board forecast does not capture these impacts, NS Power should create its own method to incorporate the effects of tariffs. 2. Residentia...

AI summary The text outlines NS Power's initiatives to refine forecasting models for trade tariffs, heat pumps, EVs, solar, housing, industrial RtR, municipal load, ELCC, and demand response. Emphasis is placed on improving accuracy through scaling factors, empirical data validation, and separate modeling of technologies like heat-pump water heaters.

for demand response. • Evaluate additional demand response programs, with a greater level of peak loads. 11. Assess the probability of “other possible scenarios” in Figure D8 and consider additional analyses aimed at mitigating projected p...

AI summary The text outlines recommendations to evaluate demand response programs, assess peak load scenarios, and develop high/low-case projections for uncertain resources like heat pumps and EVs. NS Power partially agrees with intervenors' recommendations but cites time/resource constraints, noting that managed charging strategies fall under rate design rather than load forecasting. The RtR forecast relies on Licensed Retail Supplier expectations.