N-18Response to Undertakings - Redacted
21 passages
Out of Scope - Economic, siting, policy, or environmental impacts - Alternative modeling approaches—these results may differ from other analyses - Quantified impacts of planned projects - Endorsement of specific projects, as additional pla...
AI summary The text outlines topics considered out of scope for the regulatory proceeding, including economic and environmental impacts, alternative modeling approaches, quantified project impacts, endorsement of specific projects, and recent changes to load forecasts and renewable targets.
A Critical Study: Scope and Focus NERC assessment[s](#page-54-6) 8 identified the need for more transmission throughout North America and a strategically planned resource mix[9](#page-54-7) to address these changes and support the ongoing...
AI summary The text discusses the need for enhanced transmission infrastructure and a strategically planned resource mix to support electrification and address challenges from extreme weather. It emphasizes the importance of energy reliability and adequacy, referencing NERC assessments and the Canadian Analysis.
Various Options to Address Resource Deficiency Risks When addressing the identified risks, entities have various tools at their disposal. While the Canadian Analysis identifies additions to transfer capability as one means of addressing ex...
AI summary The document outlines various strategies to address resource deficiency risks, including internal resource development, transmission enhancements, and demand-side management. It emphasizes the need for a balanced approach, considering the impacts of each option, and highlights the importance of reliable generation, cost-allocation mechanisms, and energy storage.
Study Scope The transfer capability analysis studied forecasted 2024 Summer and 2024/25 Winter conditions. [26](#page-64-4) This analysis produced a set of transfer capability limits between neighboring TPRs. More information is provided i...
AI summary The study analyzed transfer capability limits between TPRs under 2024 Summer and 2024/25 Winter conditions, using energy margin analysis to identify TPRs with energy deficiencies. The analysis focused on identifying potential transfer capability additions to mitigate these deficiencies, while excluding probabilistic resource adequacy analysis and local resource additions.
Transfer Capability Additions to Strengthen Reliability Reliability is a broad concept, and significant aspects of required reliability are defined by NERC Reliability Standards and continually implemented through entity planning, investme...
AI summary The document discusses the importance of transfer capability additions to strengthen system reliability, referencing NERC standards and the Canadian Analysis. It highlights the need to improve energy delivery under extreme conditions and outlines NERC's approach to applying consistent criteria for identifying transfer capability additions.
Important Study Considerations While the Canadian Analysis used engineering study approaches deployed within industry planning processes, it is not a planning study. Reliability, in the form of energy adequacy, is the sole focus of the stu...
AI summary The study focuses on reliability and energy adequacy, not economic justification for transmission upgrades. It identifies potential increases in transfer capability during extreme conditions but does not consider local solutions or endorse specific projects. NERC acknowledges additional benefits of transmission beyond reliability.
Resource Mix Resource portfolios were aligned with the 2023 LTRA and included existing generators, retirements, and Tier 1 resources. The LTRA is a NERC assessment of supply and demand on a peak-hour basis that evaluates the winter and sum...
AI summary The document discusses the alignment of resource portfolios with the 2023 LTRA, including existing generators, retirements, and Tier 1 resources. It outlines the evaluation of resource mixes for 2024 and 2033 cases, considering various fuel types and adjustments to capacity based on geographical locations and contractual obligations.
2024 Resource Mix [Figure 4.2](#page-92-1) shows the capacity of the 2024 resource mix by TPR and type based on the LTRA data forms. The winter capacity is shown for thermal and hydro resources, and the installed capacity is shown for wind...
AI summary Figure 4.2 illustrates the 2024 resource mix capacity by TPR and type, based on LTRA data forms. Winter capacity for thermal and hydro resources and installed capacity for wind, solar, and storage resources are shown, with additional details provided in Appendix C and summer capacities in Chapter 8.
Wind and Solar Modeling Wind and solar resources were modeled using a combination of historical and synthetic weather-year data to represent the hourly energy variability within each TPR. Both datasets described in this section result in h...
AI summary Wind and solar resources were modeled using historical and synthetic weather-year data to generate hourly capacity factor values for various renewable resources within each TPR. The capacity-weighted profiles created can be used for different levels of renewable resource capacity, with some cases involving the supplementation of historical data with synthetic data.
Step 1: Identify Hours of Resource Deficiency The transfer capability additions process begins with calculating the hourly energy margin for each TPR. Unlike traditional planning reserve margins that evaluate the supply and demand during e...
AI summary The energy margin analysis calculates the hourly energy margin for each TPR over 12 weather years, assessing potential surplus or deficit across all hours of the year. This method considers variable renewables, storage scheduling, outages, and weather-dependent load fluctuations, providing a time-synchronized dataset for comparing TPRs.
The 2024 case was used for benchmarking, but the simulations did not attempt to recreate actual operations. is largely capable of maintaining energy adequacy across diverse scenarios except under the most challenging conditions. The 2024 c...
AI summary The 2024 case serves as a benchmark for evaluating future energy adequacy, particularly in the 2033 scenario. Simulations applied historical weather conditions to the 2024 resource mix, revealing insights into potential impacts of future changes in resource mixes, load growth, and extreme weather events. Tables 6.2 and 6.3 quantify resource deficiencies in terms of energy (GWh) and hours of deficiency.
2033 Energy Margin Analysis Results The 2033 case analysis mirrors the 2024 analysis but accounts for continued load growth, retirements, and new resource additions. The assumptions for load growth, retirements, and resource additions were...
AI summary The 2033 Energy Margin Analysis builds on the 2024 analysis, factoring in continued load growth, retirements, and new resources. Projections from the 2023 LTRA inform the assumptions. Table 6.4 outlines maximum resource deficiencies across TPRs and weather years, with purple highlighting indicating deficiencies in both summer and winter.
In the 2033 case, six out of eight TPRs are affected by resource deficiencies in at least one weather year and, in many cases, across multiple weather years. Three of these TPRs had no deficiencies in the 2024 case. Similar to the 2024 res...
AI summary In the 2033 case, six out of eight TPRs experience resource deficiencies across multiple weather years, unlike the 2024 case where three TPRs had no deficiencies. Tables 6.5 and 6.6 provide quantitative data on the energy basis (GWh) and duration (hours) of these deficiencies.
ded to resolve the deficiencies, with the optimal choice being a new connection to MISO-West. Other interface options also showed benefit, with SPP-North and Wasatch Front the next highest priorities. Ontario: Resource deficiencies were fo...
AI summary The document discusses resource deficiencies in Ontario, identifying a need for an additional 1,600 MW of transfer capability to address the most severe deficiency of 3,083 MW. Options include connections to PJM-East, MISO-West, and Manitoba. The analysis acknowledges ongoing projects and procurements under the IESO's Resource Adequacy Framework that may mitigate these risks.
Capacity and Load Data (in MW) Resource Type 2024 2033 Thermal 14,538 14,916 Hydro 894 894 Variable Renewable 7,642 11,334 Energy Limited 190 463 Total 23,264 27,607 Note: Thermal and hydro values represent winter ratings Summer Peak 11,44...
AI summary The document presents capacity and load data for thermal, hydro, and variable renewable resources in 2024 and 2033, along with resource deficiency events and transfer capability summaries for Saskatchewan. It includes details on energy adequacy across multiple iterations and the percentage of seasonal peak covered by transfer capabilities.
Capacity and Load Data (in MW) Resource Type 2024 2033 Thermal 3,725 4,248 Hydro 867 867 Variable Renewable 697 942 Energy Limited 67 127 Total 5,356 6,184 Summer Peak 3,517 3,951 Winter Peak 3,873 4,326 Resource Deficiency Events Event Da...
AI summary The document presents capacity and load data for 2024 and 2033, including resource types such as thermal, hydro, and variable renewable energy. It also includes historical data on resource deficiency events and total transfer capability between Ontario and Manitoba.
Capacity and Load Data (in MW) Resource Type 2024 2033 Thermal 21,010 20,609 Hydro 8,747 8,747 Variable Renewable 7,593 7,593 Energy Limited 810 1,825 Total 38,160 38,774 Note: Thermal and hydro values represent winter ratings Summer Peak...
AI summary The document presents capacity and load data for 2024 and 2033, including thermal, hydro, and variable renewable resources. It also includes details on resource deficiency events and transfer capability summaries for Quebec, highlighting the expansion of TTC and its percentage of seasonal peak demand.
Capacity and Load Data (in MW) Top 20 events listed. Additional 24 events… 136 209.9 3,525 Total Transfer Capability (TTC) Summary Interface Name Current Summer (MW) Current Winter (MW) Additions (MW) Resulting Summer (MW) Resulting Winter...
AI summary The document presents capacity and load data, including transfer capability summaries and energy adequacy by iteration. It outlines interface limits, seasonal peak percentages, and resource deficiencies across different iterations, highlighting changes in thermal, hydro, and variable renewable resources from 2024 to 2033.
Target Forecast (2023 LTRA Annual Energy, Summer and Winter Peak Loads) Historical hourly load provided by the Canadian utilities from 2019 to 2023 served as the foundational dataset used to simulate the 2019–2023 weather years and to esti...
AI summary The document discusses the methodology used to forecast energy and peak load demand for 2024 and 2033 based on historical load data from 2019 to 2023, adjusted to account for net energy and the impact of behind-the-meter photovoltaic (BTM PV) systems.
Ī Table C.1: 2024 Cap acity by Resource Type and TPR (in M IW) Transmission Planning Region Coal Natural Gas Oil Nuclear Other Hydro Wind Utility- Scale Solar Distrib. Solar Pumped Storage Battery Storage Demand Response British Columbia 0...
AI summary Table C.1 presents the 2024 capacity by resource type across various transmission planning regions in Canada, including data on coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and demand response. Table C.2 outlines tier 1 additions and retirements by resource type and transmission planning region.
This section provides additional iteration-specific detail for each province with identified resource deficiencies.
AI summary This section provides additional iteration-specific detail for each province with identified resource deficiencies.