Topic:"Renewable Energy" in M12861

6 4.1 Historical Class Sales and Energy Data .......................................................................... 18 7 4.2 2025 Data Modifications Due to the Cyber Incident ........................................................ 19...

AI summary The document outlines sections covering historical energy data, modifications due to a cyber incident, weather data, economic information, end-use trends (including heat pumps, EVs, solar PV), and price data, highlighting key areas for analysis in the regulatory proceeding.

4.5.8 Commercial and Industrial Growth............................................................................................ 55 19 4.6 Price Data ..........................................................................................

AI summary The text outlines sections of a regulatory proceeding document covering topics such as commercial and industrial growth, price data, demand-side management, renewable energy integration, and sector-specific analyses (residential, commercial, industrial/municipal). It includes a date (May 15, 2026) and pagination details.

tcomes. In electricity 26 forecasting, much of this uncertainty is due to the impact of variations in weather, energy 27 efficiency program activities, the health of the economy, government policy, the impact of 28 electrification, changes...

AI summary NS Power uses Statistically Adjusted End-Use (SAE) models to forecast load, projecting increased Net System Requirement (NSR) due to lower solar generation estimates and higher Electric Vehicle (EV) penetration. Growth is driven by new customers, heating, and EVs, offset by solar, Demand Side Management (DSM), and Renewable to Retail (RTR) initiatives.

1 • The economic data used in the medium industrial class, including evaluation of 2 manufacturing employment, has been updated. Please refer to Section 4.4. 3 • The impacts of hybrid heat pumps have been modelled and included in the under...

AI summary Updates to the 2026 Load Forecast include revised economic data, hybrid heat pump modeling, and solar installation updates. NS Power engaged stakeholders, discussing changes like heat pump impacts, EV demand, and renewable-to-retail effects, with references to technical sections.

E3, including the impact to LDV load 16 and peak from both at-home and public charging (assumed to add 10 percent to annual energy and 17 0.2 kW/vehicle to peak based on the E3 load shapes). 18 DATE: May 15, 2026 Page 46 of 105 REDACTED (C...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses the impact of light-duty vehicles (LDV) on energy load and peak demand, including both at-home and public charging scenarios. It assumes an increase of 10 percent in annual energy use and 0.2 kW/vehicle to peak demand based on E3 load shapes.

2028 14,743 83 11 19 24,343 115 17 26 2029 23,886 129 18 29 33,486 162 23 36 2030 36,970 192 26 42 46,570 224 32 49 2031 55,946 276 39 59 65,546 309 44 66 2032 80,855 384 55 81 90,455 416 60 88 2033 111,788 516 74 108 121,388 549 80 115 20...

AI summary The text presents a table with projected figures for various years from 2028 to 2036, possibly related to energy generation or consumption. It also references a section on solar generation, specifically mentioning Net Metering and Commercial Net Metering under NS Power, and notes that the 2026 Load Forecast Report is redacted.

1 Programs, and small- to large-scale generation that is fed directly onto the grid via power purchase 2 agreements or direct utility ownership. 25 In the Load Forecast, only the small scale net metering 3 installations are considered, as...

AI summary The text discusses the 2025 Load Forecast for solar installations in Nova Scotia, noting discrepancies between forecasted and actual numbers. It highlights the impact of the Canada Greener Homes program ending in 2025 on residential installations and the continued growth of commercial installations due to incentives. The forecast projects 655 MW of installed capacity by 2036.

lowance. The forecast is for total installed capacity of 655 21 MW by 2036. This assumes no change to the incentive landscape in the coming years. The overall 22 impact is shown in Figure 31. There is no forecast reduction in NS Power peak...

AI summary The document discusses a forecast of total installed capacity reaching 655 MW by 2036, assuming no changes to current incentive structures. It also notes that solar generation does not reduce NS Power's peak demand due to non-coincidence with system peak times.

1 Figure 31: PV Impact to Energy (cumulative) Total Solar Total Load Year New Installs Load (GWh) Peak (MW) Installs (GWh) 2026 2,680 -31 0 15,767 -169 2027 5,622 -66 0 18,709 -204 2028 8,864 -105 0 21,951 -243 2029 12,439 -148 0 25,526 -2...

AI summary The text discusses the impact of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations on energy load and peak demand, noting that while solar generation reduces overall customer consumption, a significant portion of energy is still supplied by the utility. Additionally, net metering customers exhibit higher peak demands compared to non-net metering customers during both summer and winter periods.

GM Ultium-based vehicles and the Ford F-150, Kia EV9, and Tesla Cybertruck) 19 or have announced that they will provide elements of V2G capability in the near future. 20 21 4.5.7 Intensities 22 Figure 34 provides an estimate of the resulti...

AI summary The text discusses the potential for vehicle-to-grid (V2G) capability in various electric vehicles, including GM Ultium-based vehicles, the Ford F-150, Kia EV9, and Tesla Cybertruck. It also references a figure that estimates residential end-use intensities as inputs to variables used in forecasting.

Page 52 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 The intensity trends are similar to those in prior forecasts. The use of heat pumps for space heating 2 is forecast to increase steadily throug...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses trends in residential and commercial energy use, noting an increase in heat pump adoption, a decline in electric baseboard heating, and a rise in electric water heating and EV usage. Commercial end-use intensities are forecast on a per square metre basis, with various categories outlined.

8 household, driven primarily by new appliance standards, while the commercial sector sees an 9 increase in average building electric intensity. 10 11 4.5.8 Commercial and Industrial Growth 12 The commercial and industrial sectors are proj...

AI summary The commercial and industrial sectors are expected to grow due to electrification programs aimed at reducing emissions. These programs include converting heating loads to electricity and accelerating the adoption of electric cooling technologies. Forecasts for electrification by sector are provided in Figure 37.

1 4.8 Renewable to Retail 2 3 There is currently one Licensed Retail Supplier (LRS) approved to provide service under the RTR 4 tariffs. 33 The service is forecast to produce 500 GWh of energy through wind production when 5 fully operation...

AI summary The document outlines the Renewable to Retail (RTR) program, which is currently operated by one Licensed Retail Supplier (LRS) and is expected to produce 500 GWh of energy through wind by 2028. The RTR will serve various customer classes, with NS Power providing top-up energy under the Energy Balancing Service tariff. The forecast shows the impact of load migration to the RTR market starting in 2026.

Page 62 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 home as several large employers in the province implemented back-to-office policies. It is 2 expected that residential sales will continue to i...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report predicts that residential electricity sales will increase through 2026 due to factors such as back-to-office policies, new customers, and electric heating, before stabilizing by the end of the decade. Solar, DSM, and RTR are expected to reduce load, but these effects will be offset by new customer and EV load by 2031.

Page 71 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 absence of survey or publicly available information, load levels are forecast to be flat before the 2 impact of any DSM activities. 3 4 For the...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses load growth projections, noting that without DSM activities, load levels are expected to remain flat. Growth is anticipated from institutional and government facilities, but overall load is forecast to decrease by 2036 due to DSM and migration to the RTR market.

o RTR decreases class load in 2027 and 2028 (13 GWh in 2027, 21 increasing to 15 GWh in 2028), with underlying economic growth driving a recovery to within 1.5 22 GWh of 2026 levels by 2036. 23 DATE: May 15, 2026 Page 74 of 105 REDACTED (C...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses changes in load forecasts for the RTR market and Medium Industrial class. It highlights declining sales in the Medium Industrial class due to migration to RTR, and notes improvements in forecasting models with updated economic variables and statistical significance.

1 7.4 Municipal 2 3 The Municipal class comprises municipal electric utilities that purchase wholesale electricity from 4 NS Power and distribute it within their own service territories. Utility loads within these 5 municipalities include...

AI summary The Municipal class includes municipal electric utilities that purchase wholesale electricity from NS Power and distribute it within their service territories. Since 2007, these utilities have had the option to source electricity from third-party providers. By 2020, some utilities sourced 100% of their energy from third parties, reducing municipal load. Starting in 2026, these utilities will rely more on in-province wind generation and the BUTU Tariff for backup.

1 9. NET SYSTEM REQUIREMENT 2 3 The NSR is the energy required to supply the sum of residential, commercial, and industrial 4 electricity sales, plus the associated system losses, within the province of Nova Scotia. Loads 5 served by indus...

AI summary The Net System Requirement (NSR) in Nova Scotia is calculated based on residential, commercial, and industrial electricity sales, plus system losses. The 2025 NSR was slightly lower than forecast due to colder weather and a large customer variance. From 2026 to 2036, NSR is expected to grow at 0.4% annually, driven by new customers, heating, and EV adoption, partially offset by solar, DSM, and RTR initiatives.

growth 18 driven by new customers, space heating and EV adoption, and with solar, DSM and RTR migration 19 offsetting sales. Annual NSR is shown below in Figure 57. Forecast NSR values and the 20 contribution to NSR from the different sect...

AI summary The document discusses the growth in Net System Requirement (NSR) driven by new customers, space heating, and EV adoption, with solar, DSM, and RTR migration offsetting sales. The forecast NSR is higher than the 2025 forecast due to decreased solar generation and increased EV penetration.

1 available DR capacity at the generator of 8 MW for the 76 participating C&I customers. In the 2 2024/2025 season, DR capacity at the generator was evaluated at 5.941 MW over 158 customers 3 total versus a target of 10.726 MW (45 percent...

AI summary The document discusses the performance of demand response (DR) programs in Nova Scotia, noting that available DR capacity fell short of targets in the 2024/2025 season. It also addresses the impact of solar energy on system peak demand, highlighting the influence of weather and timing on solar production during peak periods.

sidential model (including heat pump programs inside the SAE model). Adjustments done outside the regression include estimates for other commercial and industrial growth programs, PV, EV, RTR and DSM. Historically the XHeat, XCool and XOth...

AI summary The document discusses the 2026 Load Forecast Report, focusing on the Small General Load model. It includes adjustments for EVs, Solar, RTR, and DSM, and outlines how load is calculated based on average use per customer and customer count. The model alignment variable accounts for differences between predicted and actual prior year load.

drogen facilities could all have a significant impact on energy and EVs, hydrogen facilities and batteries could have a significant impact on peak. Figure D8 shows the relative impact of these items. Figure D8: Relative Impact of Inputs 20...

AI summary The text discusses the potential impact of various energy-related factors, including demand-side management (DSM), solar PV, electric vehicles (EVs), hydrogen production, and battery storage, on energy and peak demand in 2026 and 2036. It highlights the relative contributions of these factors to energy and peak demand under different scenarios.

DACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 11 of 21 Heat Pump Electric Water Heaters • Modelled as a separate end-use to “standard” electric water heaters. Saturation (%) Load (GWh) • Intensity and...

AI summary The document discusses the modeling of heat pump electric water heaters as a separate end-use category, with estimates provided by EfficiencyOne. It also updates the Renewable to Retail load forecast, noting changes in load migration timing and class distribution, particularly a decrease in residential and medium industrial load and an increase in general demand.

asses, especially General Demand). Class 2025 Forecast (GWh) 2026 Forecast (GWh) Residential 117 49 Commercial 176 255 Industrial 128 117 Total 421 421 12 . REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report Appendix E P...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report compares residential electricity demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Key factors influencing the change include less solar generation, higher EV sales, less RTR migration, lower heat pump penetration, and a delayed, weaker hybrid impact.

D (GWh) (GWh) +61 2035 2,187 2,248 (2.8%) Growth -0.3% / y 0.3% / y (10y avg) 15 . REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 16 of 21 Forecast Comparison – Energy • 2026 Net System Requirement (N...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report indicates that the Net System Requirement (NSR) is expected to be higher than the 2025 forecast due to changes in the timing of RTR migration and decreased solar generation, along with increased EV load.

D (GWh) (GWh) +477 2035 11,365 11,842 (4.2%) Growth -0.2% / y 0.4% / y (10y avg) 16 . REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 17 of 21 Forecast Comparison – Energy • 2026 Net System Requirement...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report indicates that the Net System Requirement (NSR) is expected to be higher than the 2025 Load Forecast due to changes in the timing of RTR migration, decreased solar generation, and increased EV load. The greatest variance between the 2025 forecast and actual NSR is attributed to large customer load, primarily from one customer.

Total EV Incremental EV ENERGY load Load Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 2016 2017 0 2018 0 2019 0 2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0...

AI summary The document presents a table showing the total and incremental energy load for electric vehicles (EVs) from 2016 to 2028. The data indicates a significant increase in EV load starting in 2026, with the total EV load reaching 14.0 in 2026 and increasing to 47.5 in 2028.

Total New Solar load Incremental ENERGY (GWh) Solar Load Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 2016 2017 2018 IncrementaCumulativeIncrementaCumulativeCumulativeCumulative GWh Res GWh Comm GWRes% Comm% Res Installs Comm Inst...

AI summary The text presents a table with data on solar load and related metrics for the years 2016 to 2022, including incremental and cumulative values for residential and commercial solar installations. The table contains several rows with missing or zero values, indicating limited solar energy production during this period.

60 -710 655 Solar Factor 1000 2.4% 4.6% 7.4% 12.5% 14.1% 12.9% 12.1% 11.3% 9.9% 6.1% 4.3% 2.4%

AI summary The text presents a series of percentages associated with a 'Solar Factor' over a sequence of numbers, likely representing different time periods or scenarios. The percentages range from 2.4% to 14.1%, indicating variations in solar-related metrics.

% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.4% 4.9% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% Unmetered 16.3% 15.3% 12.6% 11.1% 9.4% 7.6% 8.7% 8.9% 8.9% 10.3% 13.7% 16.3% Solar Allocation EV Allocation SG 10% 20% GD 90% 80% RTR 2025 2026 2027 2028 21 352 421 Res 11.7% 2.5 41.4 49....

AI summary The text presents percentage data related to unmetered usage and allocations for solar and electric vehicles, along with load forecasts for various categories from 2025 to 2028. The data includes percentages for different categories such as residential, small generation, generation demand, and others.

Results - Peak impact = ~100 200 MW reduction by 2035, depending on adoption. No impact for Scenario 2 (CPP-based). - This is because there was no CPP event at the time of system peak in 2022. - Based on results from Scenarios 1 & 3, impac...

AI summary The peak impact is estimated at a reduction of approximately 100 to 200 MW by 2035, depending on adoption, with no impact for Scenario 2 due to the absence of a CPP event during the 2022 system peak. The impact on NSR at peak in 2035 is estimated at ~5% or 10% based on Scenarios 1 & 3.

(f) Please refer to the table below. Please refer to page 4 of the M11822 Consensus Agreement for further details. NS Power. (2025). Hourly Total Net Nova Scotia Load . OASIS Monthly Reports.

AI summary The text references a table and directs the reader to page 4 of the M11822 Consensus Agreement for details. It also cites an NS Power report on hourly total net Nova Scotia load from OASIS Monthly Reports.

2026 Load Forecast Report CA IR-5 Attachment 1 has been filed electronically. 1 Request IR-6: 2 3 Reference: Section 4.8. NS Power states that its peak forecast is unaffected by the RtR 4 load forecast. With respect to energy, NS Power is...

AI summary The document discusses the 2026 Load Forecast Report and addresses concerns regarding the impact of the RtR (Retail Tariff) load forecast on NS Power's planning and operations. NS Power clarifies that the RtR load forecast does not affect its peak demand forecast, as firm capacity contributions from Licensed Retail Suppliers are considered separately.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-1: 4 forecast percentage change are solar generation (cumulative solar generation totals -51 5 GWh in 2027 versus -24 GWh in 2026) and DSM (-32 GWh in 2027 versus -19 GWh in 6 2026). However, growth in Renewab...

AI summary The document discusses changes in Net System Requirement (NSR) forecasts from 2026 to 2036, highlighting factors such as increased EV load, new residential load, reduced solar generation, and reduced demand-side management (DSM). Growth in Renewable to Retail (RTR) migration is also noted as a major driver of change.

1 Request IR-1: 2 3 Refer to M12861, Exhibit-N1-Nova Scotia Power Inc. 2026 Load Forecast Report (filed May 4 15, 2026) (the "Report"), Figure 37, and respond to the following: 5 6 (a) Figure 37 shows cumulative industrial electrification...

AI summary The text requests Nova Scotia Power Inc. to explain the consistency of its 2026 Load Forecast with net-zero goals, the inclusion of federal strategies, and the basis for electrification projections. The response indicates that electrification involves heating and cooling conversions but does not assume industrial process electrification, and no cost-benefit analysis was conducted for industrial electrification.

- 3 undertaken. 1 Request IR-2: 2 3 Refer to M12861, Exhibit N-1, the Report, Section 4.5.2, Hybrid Heating, Section 4.5.4, 4 Electric Vehicles, and respond to the following: 5 6 (a) The forecast models hybrid heating at 50% participation...

AI summary The response to Request IR-2 discusses whether the existing transmission and distribution system can accommodate higher penetration of hybrid heating and managed EV charging. It notes that flexible, peak-shaping load would require less reinforcement than unmanaged load, but localized constraints may still necessitate targeted upgrades.

1 transportation. Accordingly, NS Power's view is that the avoided cost series of DSM is not 16 to ensure there is no double counting. The actual mechanism would depend on the nature 17 of the electrification initiatives, the information p...

AI summary NS Power argues that the avoided cost series of DSM is not applicable. The discussion involves flexible loads, such as EV charging and heat pumps, and their potential to improve solar utilization. NS Power mentions that demand response programs are being evaluated but no specific programs are currently focused on solar utilization.

REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-1 Attachment 1 Page 196 of 196 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Item 2026 Energy (GWh) 2026 Peak (MW) 2036 Energy (GWh) 2036 Peak (MW) Included in Forecast DSM (base case) -116 -19 -...

AI summary The document presents a 2026 Load Forecast Report, highlighting the impact of various factors on energy demand and peak load, including demand-side management, solar PV, electric vehicles, hydrogen production, battery storage, and price elasticity. The report includes multiple scenarios and confidence intervals for the years 2026 and 2036.

2026 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12861) NSPI Responses to Synapse Energy Economics Inc. Information Requests 1 Request IR-5: 1 the P10/P90 sensitivity provided in Section 11 of the Report. This represents 20 years of 2 economic fluctuation...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12861) addresses Synapse Energy Economics Inc.'s information requests regarding sensitivity analysis, forecast accuracy, and assumptions about new technologies. It discusses uncertainties from trade tariffs, differences between forecasted and actual residential customer additions, and the assumption of distributed solar-plus-storage or storage-only deployments.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-12: 2 3 Solar Generation (PV) (Section 4.5.5, p. 47-50) 4 5 (a) Please provide supporting data for the average capacity and capacity factor for the 6 PV installations used in the forecast. 7 8 (b) How was the...

AI summary The response to Request IR-12 discusses the supporting data for solar generation forecasts, including average capacity and capacity factor, adjustments for lower solar installations in 2025, and the use of AMI data for validation. The response refers to attachments and reports for detailed calculations and methodology.

SUMMARY OF PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE - 2023– Present Vice President, Grid Strategies, LLC . Provides research, technical assistance, and expert testimony on electric- and gas-utility planning, economics, and regulation. Reviews electric util...

AI summary The individual has extensive experience in utility planning, regulation, and energy policy, spanning roles in research, regulatory policy, and advocacy. They have provided expert testimony, designed energy efficiency and electrification programs, and worked on renewable energy and market data initiatives.

PUBLICATIONS "Urban Areas," with Judith Clarkson and Wolfgang Roeseler, in Gerald R. North, Jurgen Schmandt and Judith Clarkson, The Impact of Global Warming on Texas: A Report of the Task Force on Climate Change in Texas , 1995. "Quality...

AI summary The text lists several publications by an individual, including works on urban areas, quality of life in Houston, utility energy efficiency programs, and monopsony behavior in power generation markets. These publications focus on climate change, energy efficiency, and market dynamics.

- "Smoke in the Water: Air Pollution Hidden in the Water Vapor from Cooling Towers Agencies Fail to Enforce Against Polluters," Galveston Houston Association for Smog Prevention, February 2004. - "Reducing Air Pollution from Houston-Area S...

AI summary The text lists various reports and publications related to environmental and energy issues, focusing on air pollution, clean energy initiatives, and energy efficiency programs in the United States, particularly in Texas and the Southeastern region. These reports highlight concerns about enforcement of environmental regulations, the impact of pollution on public health, and efforts to promote renewable energy and energy efficiency.

SELECTED PRESENTATIONS "Clean Energy Solutions for Western North Carolina," presentation to Progress Energy Carolinas WNC Community Energy Advisory Council, February 7, 2008. "Energy Efficiency: Regulating Cost-Effectiveness," Florida Publ...

AI summary The text lists several presentations related to energy efficiency and renewable energy, including topics on clean energy solutions and regulating cost-effectiveness. These presentations were made to various energy regulatory bodies and advisory councils.

tion of energy efficiency in Georgia Power's 2013 integrated resource plan, including cost effectiveness, rate and bill impacts, and lost revenues, economics of fuel switching and renewable resources. South Carolina PSC Docket No. 2013-392...

AI summary The text discusses energy efficiency in Georgia Power's 2013 integrated resource plan, including cost effectiveness, rate and bill impacts, and the economics of fuel switching and renewable resources. It also references a South Carolina PSC docket involving testimony on capacity, energy efficiency, renewable energy alternatives, and the use of solar power.

Synapse Energy Economics Inc. (Synapse) presents this evidence to document its review of the 2026 Load Forecast Report [1](#page-2-0) (Report) of Nova Scotia Power, Inc. (NS Power), and to offer recommendations for improvements. Synapse ha...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics Inc. reviews NS Power's 2026 Load Forecast Report, noting higher net system requirements and peak levels compared to 2025. Key drivers include increased EV load, electric heating, and new customer growth. Changes in heating and cooling efficiency models, along with fewer heat pump installations, also influence the forecast. The peak model now includes a 24-hour lagged temperature variable.

1.1. Forecast Comparisons To begin, we compare this forecast with those of recent years. [Figure 1](#page-3-0) below shows both the actual historical energy requirements and recent forecasts. Since 2015, actual loads have been relatively f...

AI summary This section compares recent load forecasts with historical data, noting that actual loads have been flat since 2015. The 2026 forecast shows a lower projection due to reduced EV adoption and expansion of the RTR program, leading to a 4.5% increase in net system requirements from 2026 to 2036, driven by EV load, model growth, and new customer growth, partially offset by rooftop solar and DSM.

Table 4. Residential load: post regression (GWh) Existing Customer Average Use from Regression Model (kWh/year) New Cust. Load EVs Solar RTR Hybrid Res. DSM Adjust. Res Sales Total Res. DSM (at meter) DSM captured by end uses 2026 10,376 6...

AI summary Table 4 presents residential load forecasts for 2026 and 2036, including factors such as new customer load, EVs, solar, RTR, and DSM adjustments. The data shows changes in load across various categories, with some factors increasing and others decreasing.

Table 6. General demand load: post regression (GWh) Load from Regression Model (GWh/year) Model Alignment RTR Hybrid Impact EV Solar GD. DSM Adj. GD Sales (with DSM) Total GD. DSM (at meter) DSM captured by end- uses 2026 2,362 (13) (10) -...

AI summary Table 6 presents a forecast of general demand load post-regression for 2026 and 2036, showing changes in load from various factors such as RTR, EV, Solar, and DSM adjustments. The data highlights the impact of these factors on load changes over time.

3.5. Municipal Sector The municipal class comprises municipal electric utilities that purchase wholesale electricity from NS Power and distribute it within their own territories. It is small and is not modeled through the SAE or econometri...

AI summary The municipal class consists of municipal electric utilities that purchase wholesale electricity from NS Power. Starting in 2026, these utilities will serve most of their demand directly through their own wind facility, reducing bundled municipal load from 120 GWh to 45 GWh, while backup and top-up purchases increase. NS Power will still provide backup capacity and reserve margin.

5. DISCUSSION OF SPECIFIC END-USES AND SOLAR PV In this section, we provide more detailed discussion of specific topics within the load forecast. We focus on heat pumps, electric vehicles, solar generation, and demand side management as th...

AI summary This section discusses specific end-uses and solar PV, focusing on heat pumps, electric vehicles, solar generation, and demand side management as major drivers of change in the load forecast, based on prior Synapse recommendations.

Solar generation NS Power forecasts new PV generation separately from its SAE modeling. Solar generation can either be small-scale at the customer level, or larger utility-scale. The load forecast considers the customer-level impacts of di...

AI summary NS Power forecasts increased solar generation, but at a slower rate than previously projected, due to lower-than-expected installations and the removal of residential incentives. The load forecast includes a net reduction in residential and commercial energy demand. Solar coincidence factors are maintained from the 2025 forecast, pending updated data for the 2027 forecast.

Recommendations NS Power should evaluate why 2025 had lower-than-forecast residential solar installations to determine whether this was an anomaly or indicative of a broader trend. The incremental distributed solar growth rate forecast sho...

AI summary The text recommends that NS Power evaluate the lower-than-forecast residential solar installations in 2025 to determine if it is an anomaly or a broader trend. It also suggests using multiple years of historical data for more accurate solar growth rate forecasts and updating solar installation projections and coincidence factors.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS - 1. NS Power should continue to monitor the impact of trade policy and consider explicitly incorporating tariff impacts into its future forecast if they are expected to have a material impact on load growth. - 2. Concer...

AI summary The recommendations focus on improving NS Power's forecasting methods for load growth, hybrid heating participation, heat pump efficiency metrics, EV charging, solar installations, and DSM savings accumulation. Emphasis is placed on using more accurate modeling approaches, incorporating updated data, and clarifying assumptions to enhance forecast reliability.

Matter No. M12861 Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board IN THE MATTER OF: The Public Utilities Act IN THE MATTER OF: NS Power 2026 Load Forecast Report NOTICE OF INTERVENTION: Renewall Energy Inc TAKE NOTICE that Renewall Energy Inc. reques...

AI summary Renewall Energy Inc. intervenes in the NS Power 2026 Load Forecast Report proceeding, focusing on assumptions in the report and interactions between the Renewable to Retail (RTR) market and public utility markets. The intervention highlights concerns about the RTR program's role and its implications for the broader energy market.

2026 M12861 NOVA SCOTIA ENERGY BOARD IN THE MATTER OF: the Public Utilities Act, RSNS 1989, c 380 as amended -and- IN THE MATTER OF: Nova Scotia Power Incorporated’s 2026 Load Forecast Report NOTICE OF INTERVENTION OF: SOLAR NOVA SCOTIA To...

AI summary Solar Nova Scotia, a non-profit promoting solar energy and distributed resources, intervenes in Nova Scotia Power’s 2026 Load Forecast Report proceeding. They seek involvement in electricity system planning and distributed energy resource discussions, requesting communication updates via Dave Brushett, their chair.

Request IR-6: - New Technologies (Section 4.5.6, p. 51) - a. Refer to Section 4.5.6 of the 2026 Load Forecast Report, which states that "[t]he 2026 Load Forecast does not assume a significant amount of distributed solar/battery storage com...

AI summary Request IR-6 seeks clarification on NS Power's assumptions regarding distributed solar-plus-storage, storage-only, and V2G technologies in the 2026 Load Forecast Report. It specifically asks about the inclusion of these resources in the forecast, projected battery cost declines, peak impact sensitivity analyses, and quantification of winter peak reduction from these technologies.

Request IR-11: provided by E1." - Electric Vehicles (EVs) (Section 4.5.4, p. 44-47) - a. Please provide the source data and calculations behind Figures 28-30. - b. Please specify the share of EVs in the forecast which are light-duty, non-p...

AI summary Request IR-11 seeks detailed information on Nova Scotia Power's load forecast for electric vehicles, including data sources, methodology, assumptions, and how changes in mandates and incentives have influenced the forecast. It also asks about the inclusion of managed charging and the use of AMI data in future forecasts.

Request IR-12: - Solar Generation (PV) (Section 4.5.5, p. 47-50) - a. Please provide supporting data for the average capacity and capacity factor for the PV installations used in the forecast. - b. How was the forecast adjusted to account...

AI summary Request IR-12 seeks information on solar generation forecasts, including data on capacity and capacity factors, adjustments for lower solar installations in 2025, and the use of AMI data to validate assumptions.

Request IR-16: - Renewable to Retail (Section 4.8, p. 61): - a. Please explain the basis for the shift in this year's RTR forecast relative to last year's that increases migration for commercial and industrial customers but decreases migra...

AI summary Request IR-16 includes two questions about the Renewable to Retail (RTR) forecast, focusing on changes in migration rates for different customer segments and the treatment of energy from the Goose Harbour Lake Wind Farm in the forecast.

1 Request IR-4: 2 Refer to M12861, Exhibit N-1, the Report, the treatment of DSM adjustments in the forecast 3 methodology, and respond to the following: 4 5 a) How would NS Power's methodology treat DSM-funded strategic electrification th...

AI summary The document requests NS Power to explain how its methodology would treat DSM-funded strategic electrification that increases electricity sales but reduces customer costs and emissions. It also asks whether the existing DSM adjustment can handle load-increasing resources or if a separate adjustment is needed, and how double counting would be avoided.

13 Request IR-5: 14 Refer to M12861, Exhibit N-1, the Report, the treatment of behind-the-meter solar and distributed 15 storage, and respond to the following: 16 17 a) The Report assumes no significant distributed storage and treats behin...

AI summary The request asks NS Power to assess whether flexible loads can shift demand to periods of high solar output and improve solar utilization, including reducing curtailment risk, in light of the Report's assumption that behind-the-meter solar is primarily a load reduction.

24 Request IR-6: 25 Refer to M12861, Exhibit N-1, the Report, Figure 31, and respond to the following: 26 27 a) Figure 31 assigns 0 MW of peak reduction to solar across all years, on the basis that the 28 system peak occurs after sunset. W...

AI summary The request questions the assumption in Figure 31 that solar contributes 0 MW of peak reduction, based on the system peak occurring after sunset. It asks if this assumption was carried forward from the 2025 Load Forecast and whether NS Power plans to revisit it with updated AMI and production data, including solar paired with storage.

34 Request IR-7: 35 Refer to M12861, Exhibit N-1, the Report, Sections 4.5.1, 4.5.5 and 4.5.6, and respond to the 36 following: 37 The forecast assumes no change to the incentive landscape and, for heat pumps, reduces projected 38 installa...

AI summary The text requests a response to the heat pump forecast assumptions, specifically whether federal incentives like the Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit (ITC) were considered for commercial heat pumps and residential retrofit programs. It also inquires about the evaluation of commercial and industrial battery storage in light of federal incentives.