N-12026 10-Year System Outlook Report
19 passages
TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS Abbreviation Description 10 YSO 10-Year System Outlook AAS Automatic Action Schemes BESS Battery Energy Storage System CER Clean Electricity Regulations CO2 Carbon Dioxide CPP Critical Peak Pricing DC Direct Current...
AI summary The document contains a table of abbreviations used in a Nova Scotia regulatory proceeding, including terms related to energy, environmental regulations, and infrastructure.
). The creation of the Independent Energy System Operator of Nova Scotia (IESO, IESO Nova Scotia) has implications for the continued ownership of these filing requirements, which are described herein. NS Power and IESO Nova Scotia have bee...
AI summary The document discusses the transition of responsibilities for the Load Forecast and 10-Year System Outlook (10YSO) reports between NS Power and the newly created IESO Nova Scotia. NS Power will prepare the Load Forecast report while IESO Nova Scotia will take over the 10YSO report, avoiding duplication of efforts. The 10YSO report is an annual assessment of system capacity and resource adequacy, reflecting progress toward 80% renewable energy and the phase-out of coal by 2030.
System Peak (MW) Net System Requirement (GWh) Year System Peak (MW) Growth (%) Nova Scotia Power Net System Requirement (GWh) Renewable -to Retail Energy (GWh) Municipa lity Energy (GWh) Behind-the Meter Solar (GWh) IESO-NS Net System Requ...
AI summary The table provides a projection of system peak demand and net system requirements for Nova Scotia from 2026 to 2036. It includes data on renewable energy, municipal energy, behind-the-meter solar, and the IESO-NS net system requirement. Footnotes reference a Wholesale Market Backup/Top-up Service Tariff, a letter from IESO NS to the NSEB, and a 2026 Load Forecast Report.
3.1 Existing Generation Resources The Nova Scotia generation fleet comprises a diverse mix of thermal, renewable, and energy storage resources. Thermal units operate on coal, petroleum coke, light and heavy fuel oil, and natural gas; renew...
AI summary Nova Scotia's generation fleet includes thermal, renewable, and energy storage resources, with 100 MW of Battery Energy Storage Systems added in 2025. Resource adequacy depends on the type of resource, with thermal and hydro units providing more reliable capacity than energy-limited resources like wind, solar, and storage.
6 Nova Scotia Effective Load Carrying Capability Study, Energy+Environmental Economics, June 2026. Generation Resource Fuel Type Owner Capacity (MW) ELCC (%) Firm Capacity (MW) Total Steam 1590.0 - 1590.0 Combined Cycle Tufts Cove 4,5,6 Na...
AI summary The document presents a table listing various generation resources in Nova Scotia, including their fuel types, owners, capacities, Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC), and firm capacities. It includes data on natural gas, wind, solar, biomass, hydro, and battery energy storage systems, as well as independent power producers and wholesale market participants.
3.2.1 Rate Base Procurement The Rate Base Procurement program is made up of four (4) projects totaling 306 MW and 1,165 GWh of wind generation. [13](#page-12-0) Benjamins Mill Wind (IR 673) was commissioned in December 2025, and is reflect...
AI summary The Rate Base Procurement program includes four wind generation projects totaling 306 MW and 1,165 GWh, with one already commissioned and the others expected to be operational by the end of 2026.
3.2.2 Green Choice Program & Additional Energy Procurements The Green Choice Program (GCP) was established by the Government of Nova Scotia in April 2022 following amendments to the Electricity Act . [14](#page-12-1) In June 2025, two (2)...
AI summary The Green Choice Program (GCP) was established in 2022 and has procured 262 MW of wind energy from two projects expected to be operational by 2028. NS Power has identified the need for an additional 350 MW of wind generation to meet 2030 renewable energy targets, with a second procurement round announced in 2026. A further 1,200 MW of wind capacity is included in the 2030-2036 10-Year System Outlook.
3.2.4 Fast-Acting Generation IESO Nova Scotia has initiated a procurement process for 300 to 600 MW of fast-acting generation capacity for the province. The draft Request for Proposals (RFP) and Tolling Agreement was made available for pro...
AI summary IESO Nova Scotia has initiated a procurement process for 300 to 600 MW of fast-acting generation to support the province's clean energy transition. This capacity is critical for maintaining supply reliability as renewable energy penetration increases and peak demand grows. The 2026 10-Year Outlook Resource Plan includes 450 MW of fast-acting generation, with additional needs identified by 2035/2036.
3.2.5 Battery Energy Storage Systems The Government of Nova Scotia's Clean Power Plan calls for 300 to 400 MW of battery storage capacity to be added by 2030. In 2025, 100 MW of BESS was added to the Nova Scotia system (referenced in [Tabl...
AI summary The Clean Power Plan aims to add 300 to 400 MW of battery storage by 2030. In 2025, 100 MW of BESS was added, with 50 MW planned for 2026. IESO Nova Scotia has included 250 MW of BESS in the 10-Year Outlook Resource Plan and will continue studying optimal storage additions in the 2026 IRP.
3.2.7 Firm Imports — New Brunswick On May 28, 2026, the New Brunswick Energy and Utilities Board approved NB Power's Renewable Integration Grid Stability (RIGS) project. [26](#page-14-4) The project will provide IESO Nova Scotia with acces...
AI summary On May 28, 2026, the New Brunswick Energy and Utilities Board approved NB Power's RIGS project, providing IESO Nova Scotia with 100 MW of firm generation capacity starting as early as 2028. This capacity is included in the Resource Plan for Winter 2028/2029 under a 10-year agreement.
Table 3: Additions and Retirements in the 10-Year System Outlook Resource Plan Additions Retirements Winter Generation Type Name Installed Capacity (MW) Firm Capacity (MW) Name Retired Capacity (MW) Wind Rate Base Procurement 273 54.5 Wind...
AI summary Table 3 outlines the additions and retirements in the 10-Year System Outlook Resource Plan, detailing wind, solar, battery storage, and other generation and demand response resources for various years from 2026/2027 to 2035/2036, along with retirements such as coal-to-gas conversions and coal plants.
Firm Resource Additions For energy limited resource additions (wind, solar, battery, demand response), the firm capacity contributions reflect the ELCC rather than installed capacity as discussed in Section [3.1.](#page-7-2) Wind projects...
AI summary The document discusses firm resource additions, focusing on wind, solar, battery, and demand response projects. It highlights the use of Effective Load Carrying Capacity (ELCC) for firm capacity contributions and mentions specific projects with established procurement timelines, as well as future procurements outlined in the 2023 Evergreen IRP.
Thermal Retirement Schedule The thermal retirement schedule complies with the 2030 coal phase-out targets. Previous 10-year load and resource outlooks presented retirements of Trenton 5 and Lingan 2 in Winter 2027/2028. Based on the curren...
AI summary The thermal retirement schedule aligns with the 2030 coal phase-out targets. Previous retirements of Trenton 5 and Lingan 2 were planned for Winter 2027/2028, but IESO Nova Scotia now expects these units to remain in service until Winter 2029/2030 to maintain adequate Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) until new fast-acting generation is operational.
Winter 2026/ 2027 2027/ 2028 2028/ 2029 2029/ 2030 2030/ 2031 2031/ 2032 2032/ 2033 2033/ 2034 2034/ 2035 2035/ 2036 1 Load Forecast 2 System Peak (with DSM) 2,497 2,526 2,549 2,563 2,593 2,620 2,652 2,689 2,730 2,765 3 Interruptible Load...
AI summary The table presents a 10-Year System Outlook (10YSO) with load forecasts, system peak, required capacity, existing and new firm resources, retirements, and reserve margin percentages for various years from 2026/2027 to 2035/2036. It outlines the capacity additions and retirements, including wind, storage, and coal-to-gas conversions, along with the resulting reserve margins.
4.1 Renewable Electricity Requirements The More Access to Energy Act 2024[28](#page-19-2) directs IESO Nova Scotia to plan and operate the bulk electricity system in accordance with renewable electricity standards (RES). The current RES ta...
AI summary The More Access to Energy Act 2024 directs IESO Nova Scotia to plan and operate the bulk electricity system in accordance with renewable electricity standards (RES). The RES target is currently 40% renewable generation, increasing to 80% by 2030.
5.1.1 Interconnection Requirements IESO Nova Scotia sets performance and interconnection requirements for BESS, generation, and load connecting to the Nova Scotia transmission system. These performance and interconnection requirements will...
AI summary IESO Nova Scotia establishes interconnection requirements for BESS, generation, and load connecting to the transmission system. These requirements are being refined as technology advances and local experience grows. Inverter-based resources (IBRs) like solar and wind can be integrated, though they may require additional grid support mechanisms. The TSIR, last updated in February 2025, will be reviewed in 2026.
5.4.1 Reliability Intertie On April 10, 2025, Wasoqonatl Transmission Incorporated (WTI) filed the NS-NB Reliability Intertie Project Application to build the reliability intertie, a second 345 kV AC transmission line between the Nova Scot...
AI summary On April 10, 2025, Wasoqonatl Transmission Incorporated (WTI) submitted an application for the NS-NB Reliability Intertie Project, which was approved by the NSEB on November 20, 2025. This project involves constructing a second 345 kV AC transmission line between Nova Scotia and New Brunswick to support renewable energy integration and meet provincial renewable energy mandates.
6 CONCLUSION This report constitutes IESO Nova Scotia's 10-Year System Outlook for the 2026-2036 horizon and satisfies the requirement under Section 3.3.1.3 of the Nova Scotia Wholesale and Renewable to Retail Electricity Market Rules . Th...
AI summary IESO Nova Scotia's 10-Year System Outlook (2026-2036) outlines the province's transition to 80% renewable energy and coal phase-out by 2030. The report highlights the need for successful implementation of projects to maintain system adequacy and meet decarbonization targets, while studying impacts of load and generation, including inverter-based resources, to ensure system reliability.
Appendix A: RES Compliance Forecast Year 2027 2028 2030 Energy Requirements (GWh) Energy Requirement 11,951 12,142 12,284 Losses 837 850 860 Sales 11,114 11,292 11,424 RES (%) Requirement 40% 40% 80% RES Requirement (GWh) 4446 4517 9139 Re...
AI summary This appendix provides a forecast of RES (Renewable Electricity Standards) compliance from 2027 to 2030, outlining energy requirements, renewable energy sources, and compliance status. It shows a significant increase in renewable energy production, particularly from wind and solar sources, with a forecasted surplus in 2030.
N-4IESO (NSEB) RIR 1 to 19
10 passages
- Nova Scotia stated that adjustments were made to net system requirements to account for - Renewable-to-Retail customers, customers served by municipal utilities, and behind-the-meter - solar load not served by NS Power. - a) Please expla...
AI summary Nova Scotia has made adjustments to net system requirements, excluding Renewable-to-Retail customers, municipal utility customers, and behind-the-meter solar load not served by NS Power. The question asks whether adjustments to system peaks are also required.
Response IR - 1 meter solar. Adjustments to system peak were not needed. NSPI is required to provide back-up capacity, including associated reserve margin, to the municipal electric utilities and renewable-to-retail customers taking supply...
AI summary The response discusses the impact of behind-the-meter solar on system peak demand, stating that no adjustments are needed as peak design conditions occur after sunset. NSPI is required to provide backup capacity to municipal utilities and renewable-to-retail customers.
1 Request IR – 3 - 2 Please provide a table showing the 10-year Marginal ELCC Percentage for New Wind Additions - 3 table. - 4 Response IR 3 - 5 The table below provides the 10-year Marginal ELCC Percentage for new wind additions. These
AI summary The document requests a table showing the 10-year Marginal ELCC Percentage for New Wind Additions and provides a response indicating that the table is included.
- 6 values are based on the 2026 ELCC Report 1 . Additions Winter Generation Type Name Installed Capacity (MW) Firm Capacity (MW) Marginal ELCC Wind Rate Base Procurement 273 54.5 20% 2026/2027 Wind Renewable to Retail 36 7.2 20% 2026/2027...
AI summary The text presents a table of wind generation additions and their associated capacity values based on the 2026 ELCC Report. It includes details such as installed capacity, firm capacity, and marginal ELCC for various projects and years. The document also references a study by the Nova Scotia Independent Energy System Operator (IESO Nova Scotia) in response to information requests from the Nova Scotia Energy Board (NSEB).
Request IR – 6 - If the new 450 MW of fast-acting combustion turbines generating capacity is not in service by - 2030, please describe IESO Nova Scotia's specific plan to meet projected system load, as well as - maintain system reliability...
AI summary The request asks IESO Nova Scotia to outline a plan to meet system load and maintain reliability by 2030 if new 450 MW of fast-acting combustion turbines are not in service, while also complying with NS Power's requirements to phase out coal and achieve 80% renewable electricity generation.
Response IR - 6 a) IESO Nova Scotia is currently focused on meeting the Province's legislated requirement to phase out coal generation and meeting 80% renewable electricity generation by 2030. This focus includes advancing a request for pr...
AI summary IESO Nova Scotia is focused on phasing out coal and achieving 80% renewable electricity generation by 2030. They are advancing a request for proposals for 300 MW to 600 MW of fast-acting generation, with a closing date in January 2027. If the 2030 target is not achievable, alternative reliability plans may be considered, including fuel switching or equivalency agreements.
Response IR - 8 - a) The firm capacity values in Table 3 and Table 4 are based on Effective Load Carrying Capacity (ELCC) for variable renewable resources, like wind and solar, and energy limited resources, like batteries and demand respon...
AI summary The response discusses the calculation of firm capacity values for different types of energy resources, distinguishing between variable renewable resources (like wind and solar) and dispatchable thermal resources. It explains how Effective Load Carrying Capacity (ELCC) is used for variable resources and installed capacity for thermal resources, and how marginal ELCC decreases as resource penetration increases.
NON-CONFIDENTIAL 5 Interruptible Load (129) (135) (142) (141) (140) (140) (139) (139) (138) (138) 6 Firm Peak (with DSM) 2,367 2,391 2,407 2,422 2,453 2,480 2,513 2,550 2,592 2,628 7 Required Capacity 8 Required Reserve (20%) 473 478 481 4...
AI summary The document presents a table detailing the capacity planning for the energy system, including existing and new resources, retirements, and reserve margin calculations. It outlines the changes in firm capacity and reserve margin percentages for various years, reflecting the impact of new renewable energy additions, retirements of older facilities, and demand response contributions.
1 Request IR – 14 - 2 Referencing Renewable Electricity Requirements and Figure 3: - 3 a) Please provide a table showing the percentage of RES compliance expected during each 4 year from 2026/2027 to 2035/2036 inclusive.
AI summary The document requests a table showing the percentage of Renewable Electricity Standards (RES) compliance expected during each four-year period from 2026/2027 to 2035/2036 inclusive, referencing Renewable Electricity Requirements and Figure 3.
5 Year 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Energy Requirements (GWh) Energy Requirement (GWh) 11,951 12,142 12,220 12,284 12,400 12,535 12,637 12,803 13,000 13,224 Losses 837 850 855 860 868 877 885 896 910 926 Sales 11,114 1...
AI summary The document presents a table showing energy requirements, renewable energy sources, and RES compliance forecasts from 2027 to 2036. It also references responses from the Nova Scotia Independent Energy System Operator (IESO Nova Scotia) to information requests by the Nova Scotia Energy Board (NSEB).
N-7IESO (SBA) RIR 1 to 22
8 passages
- Net System Requirement. - a) Please explain the drivers between the increase in Renewable-to-Retail (RtR) Energy from 15 GWh in 2026 to 239 GWh in 2027 and then 286 GWh in 2028, respectively. - b) Please explain why RtR sales are assumed...
AI summary The text requests an explanation for the increase in Renewable-to-Retail (RtR) energy from 2026 to 2028, the assumption of flat RtR sales from 2028 to 2036, and a reconciliation of discrepancies between energy production increases and resource expansion figures in Table 3.
Response IR - 2 - a) The increase in the volume of energy served by the Renewable-to-Retail market from 2026 to 2028 is based on the Licensed Retail Supplier's forecast for the timing and volume of customers they forecast to supply. - b) S...
AI summary The Licensed Retail Supplier forecasts increased Renewable-to-Retail market volume from 2026 to 2028, followed by flat sales from 2028 to 2036 due to limited low-impact renewable energy availability. Additional generation projects or new Retail Supplier licenses would be needed to increase sales.
1 Request IR – 7 - 2 Refer to the 2026 Report Section 3 Existing Generation Resources, page 9, footnote 9. Please - 3 describe how much of the installed capacity in Table 2 is attributable to the Community Feed-In- - 4 Tariff (FIT) program...
AI summary The response to Request IR–7 indicates that 2.5 MW of the 27.6 MW of Biomass IPP capacity is attributable to the Community Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) program. Biogas FIT projects were aggregated with biomass projects due to their small volume. A list of all FIT projects is available in the 2025 Comfit Annual Report (M12687).
NON-CONFIDENTIAL d) In Table 3 the annual incremental firm capacity attributed to the diversity credit is a function of the installed capacity of storage (existing plus incremental), and the annual incremental capacity additions of wind an...
AI summary The text discusses how the diversity credit in Table 3 is influenced by changes in the installed capacity of storage and the annual incremental capacity additions of wind and solar resources. It also references a follow-up study on wind-storage ELCC results for further analysis.
NON-CONFIDENTIAL Renewable to Retail Addition 36 57 2026/2027 2027/2028 90 2025/2026 2026 10 YSO reflects the updated timing of the project with implementation split between two Winter periods. Total capacity (90 MW) is unchanged. Port Haw...
AI summary The document outlines updates to various energy projects in Nova Scotia, including changes in implementation timelines and capacity adjustments. Key projects include the Renewable to Retail, Port Hawkesbury Paper Wind, and NS Community Solar, with updates reflecting revised schedules and capacities as outlined in the 2026 10 YSO.
Request IR – 16 - Refer to the 2026 Report Section 4.3 Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), page 21. - Specifically considering the treatment of new fast-acting generation under the CER: - a) Please describe IESO NS's current assessment of...
AI summary The text requests the IESO NS to assess whether 450 MW of new fast-acting generation qualifies as a 'Planned Resource' under the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), provide updated analysis on emissions performance standards, and describe implications for resource plans if the generation is not eligible as a Planned Resource.
- 9 including project name, generation type, installed/ nameplate capacity and expected in-service date. Interconnection Project Name Nameplate Generation In-Service Request Capacity Type Date 542 Parrsboro Tidal 3.78 Tidal 2027-06-30 574...
AI summary The document lists various renewable energy projects in Nova Scotia, including tidal and wind energy initiatives, with details on their capacity, generation type, and expected in-service dates. It also references responses from the Nova Scotia Independent Energy System Operator (IESO Nova Scotia) to information requests from the Small Business Advocate (SBA).
Request IR – 21 - The 2026 Report does not discuss offshore wind (OSW) generation resources. - a) If Nova Scotia successfully achieves its goals of up to 5 GW of OSW in the 2026 call for bids, and an additional 10 GW in future calls for bi...
AI summary The 2026 Report does not include offshore wind generation resources. Questions are raised about how achieving Nova Scotia's offshore wind goals will impact the 10-Year System Outlook and when offshore wind will be reflected in future reports.
103620SBA (IESO) IR 1 to 22
9 passages
- average annual decrease of 0.2%.[1](#page-1-0) a. Please provide a comparison of the 2026 Load Forecast to the 2025 Load Forecast for both energy (NSR) and system peak demand. - b. Please identify the key drivers responsible for the chan...
AI summary The text requests a comparison of the 2026 Load Forecast to the 2025 Load Forecast, identifies key drivers of the shift from declining to growing energy forecasts, and asks for needed changes in resource buildout to accommodate increased load.
Request IR-02 Refer to the 2026 Report Section 2 – Load Forecast, page 6, Table 1: Forecast System Peak and Net System Requirement. - a. Please explain the drivers between the increase in Renewable-to-Retail (RtR) Energy from 15 GWh in 202...
AI summary The document requests an explanation for the increase in Renewable-to-Retail (RtR) Energy from 2026 to 2028, the assumption of flat RtR sales from 2028 to 2036, and a reconciliation of discrepancies between energy production increases and resource expansion in the 10-Year System Outlook Resource Plan.
Request IR-03 Refer to the 2026 Report Section 2 – Load Forecast, page 6, Table 1: Forecast System Peak and Net System Requirement. Please explain the source for the assumed growth in behind-the-meter solar penetration.
AI summary The document requests an explanation of the source for the assumed growth in behind-the-meter solar penetration as presented in the 2026 Report, specifically in Section 2 – Load Forecast, page 6, Table 1: Forecast System Peak and Net System Requirement.
Request IR-06 Refer to the 2026 Report Section 3 – Existing Generation Resources, page 8, Table 2: 2026 Nova Scotia Generation Resources. - a. Please describe the methodology used to determine the ELCC value of hydro resources. - b. Please...
AI summary Request IR-06 seeks clarification on the methodology used to calculate the Effective Load-Carrying Capacity (ELCC) of hydro resources, specifically why Mersey System hydro has a lower ELCC than other NS Power hydro facilities, and the source of the 67% ELCC assumption for demand response resources.
Request IR-10 Refer to the 2026 Report Section 3 – Existing Generation Resources, page 15, Table 3: Additions and Retirements in the 10-Year System Outlook Resource Plan, and the Demand Response additions. The Demand Response ELCC values v...
AI summary The document requests clarification on the discrepancy between Demand Response ELCC values in two different tables from the 2026 Report. It highlights significant variations in ELCC values across different time horizons and asks for an explanation of the drivers behind these changes and whether the values represent marginal or average ELCC.
Request IR-11 Refer to the 2026 Report Section 3.2.3 – NS Community Solar, page 13, which states that "The forecast commercial operation date for the first three projects approved by the Nova Scotia Department of Energy is Q3 2027." - a. P...
AI summary The document requests information about the development status and potential risks of three Community Solar projects, as well as a reconciliation of additions and retirements in two resource plans. It emphasizes the importance of meeting commercial operation dates and understanding differences in resource planning.
Request IR-13 Refer to the 2026 Report Section 3 – Existing Generation Resources, page 15, Table 3: Additions and Retirements in the 10-Year System Outlook Resource Plan, and the implied marginal wind ELCC values reflected within the table...
AI summary Request IR-13 asks for clarification on marginal wind ELCC values from the 2026 Report, consistency with the June 2026 E3 ELCC study, and the wind capacity threshold where ELCC declines from 20% to 5%.
Request IR-21 The 2026 Report does not discuss offshore wind (OSW) generation resources. a. If Nova Scotia successfully achieves its goals of up to 5 GW of OSW in the 2026 call for bids, and an additional 10 GW in future calls for bids, ho...
AI summary The 2026 Report does not address offshore wind generation resources. The request asks how the 10-Year System Outlook will change if Nova Scotia achieves its offshore wind generation goals and how future reports will incorporate offshore wind resources.
Request IR-22 The 2025 Report included several sections that do not appear in the 2026 Report, including but not limited to various sections under "Generation Resources", "Resource Adequacy", "Transmission Planning", "Transmission Developm...
AI summary The 2025 Report included sections not present in the 2026 Report, such as 'Generation Resources' and 'Clean Energy Regulations'. The request asks for an explanation of why these sections were omitted and where equivalent information can now be found, including whether responsibility for these topics has shifted to NS Power or IESO-NS.