N-1Report
17 passages
2. MODELING PLAN AND INPUT ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................... 8 2.1. Modeling Methodology ..................................................................................................... 8 Plexos.....
AI summary The document outlines a modeling plan and input assumptions, detailing methodology using Plexos, post-processing steps, scenarios, sensitivities, and assumptions related to load, fuel prices, energy sources, transmission constraints, and emission limits.
ovision Constraints ........................................... 17 Emission Constraints ............................................................................................................... 17 Available Resource New Build Costs ....
AI summary The document outlines sections of a modeling analysis covering emission constraints, resource costs, wind capacity credits, transmission infrastructure, coal plant retirement timelines, and sensitivity analyses. It references a final report by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. on thermal generation utilization and optimization for Nova Scotia Power.
Plant Utilization – Capacity Factors – Coal and Tufts Cove Units ............................................ 41 Energy by Fuel Type..............................................................................................................
AI summary The document discusses plant utilization, capacity factors for coal and Tufts Cove units, energy by fuel type, emissions, and sensitivities (e.g., battery costs, gas prices). It also outlines updates since a technical conference, demand-side options, NB transmission, and additional wind resources in the discussion and recommendations section.
e Province’s declining power sector emissions schedule and underlying power system technical constraints (primarily, transmission and operating reserves criteria). Modeling Plan and Input Assumptions Synapse developed a modeling plan and a...
AI summary Synapse developed a modeling plan for NSPI’s thermal resource utilization, considering parameters like peak load, wind capacity credit, transmission expansion, and coal plant retirements. The analysis evaluates technical and economic factors impacting thermal fleet optimization and resource transformation scenarios.
outcome, reinforcing the importance of carefully examining alternative resource scenarios that incorporate higher levels of peak load reduction and/or wind energy, as feasible. Coupled with this emission‐constraint‐driven outcome, however,...
AI summary The analysis emphasizes the economic and emission-driven selection of wind energy and transmission upgrades, highlighting the need for grid flexibility and cost assessments for increased wind generation on NSPI’s system. Scenarios with higher wind integration show lower NPVRR, underscoring the trade-offs between emission constraints and fossil fuel reliance.
napse set the Plexos model to maintain a 20 percent reserve margin in all years when making build/retire decisions, in accordance with Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) reliability criteria. Additional modeling scenarios were des...
AI summary The analysis uses the Plexos model with a 20% reserve margin per NPCC reliability criteria, exploring scenarios involving peak load, wind capacity credit, transmission expansion, capital expenditures, battery storage costs, gas prices, and coal plant retirements. Post-processing of model outputs standardizes data and calculates revenue requirements to compare NPV of scenarios.
enously by Synapse—fixed O&M, sustaining capital costs, new build costs, incremental demand‐side management (DSM) costs, New Brunswick transmission costs, and Nova Scotia Maritime Link fixed payments. Fixed O&M is calculated by multiplying...
AI summary The text outlines cost components for energy planning, including fixed O&M, sustaining capital, new build, DSM, and transmission costs. It details calculation methods for each, such as annualizing capital costs and using nameplate capacity. Modeling scenarios in Plexos are discussed, focusing on capacity expansion, dispatch, and unit commitment under various sensitivities.
ission constraints for selected changes to CT and CC costs and availability. They also enabled us to test the effect of selected forced retirements of one Tufts Cove unit and one of the Trenton units. Scenarios An initial set of 30 scenari...
AI summary The analysis explores modeling scenarios for NSPI's thermal generation, including forced retirements of units, sensitivity to battery costs, gas prices, and updated technology costs. It evaluates impacts of relaxing Plexos steam and transmission constraints on build, retirement, and dispatch responses.
Sust Wind NB HardCode Scen. # Scenario Name Load Capital CapCredit Trans RetirePath 1 Ref Ref Ref Ref No No 2 Med DSM Med DSM Ref Ref No No 4 Ref/HighSusCap Ref High Ref No No 5 Med DSM/HighSusCap Med DSM High Ref No No 7 Ref/HighWindCapCr...
AI summary The table outlines various scenarios with different combinations of demand-side management (DSM), capacity credits, and transmission (NB Trans) options. The note highlights 'RetirePath1,' which includes forced retirements of coal plants beyond Lingan 2 in 2020/21, specifically Lingan 4 (2023) and Lingan 3 (2024), modeled in Plexos.
Yes Note: “RetirePath1” reflects additional forced retirements of coal plants beyond Lingan 2 in 2020/21. It reflects sequential retirement in Plexos of Lingan 4 (2023), Lingan 3 (2024), Lingan 1 (2025), and Trenton 5 (2026). Sensitivities...
AI summary The text outlines forced retirements of coal plants beyond Lingan 2 in 2020/21, including specific retirements in Plexos (Lingan 4, 3, 1, Trenton 5). It details sensitivity analyses on battery costs, natural gas prices, thermal units, and transmission constraints, aiming to explore system flexibility and efficiency gains under relaxed modeling conditions.
Link to flow energy to Newfoundland in winter prior to Muskrat Falls completion, if needed, and with Newfoundland’s agreement to allow recall energy to flow to Nova Scotia during non‐winter months.19 Transmission/Unit Commitment/Reserve Pr...
AI summary The document discusses the constraints related to transmission, unit commitment, and emission limits in NSPI's energy system, including the use of Plexos modeling to ensure compliance with reserve margin requirements and emission standards.
ty credit value should be considered for resource adequacy purposes.24 New Brunswick Transmission For the New Brunswick transmission scenarios, Synapse made two adjustments in the modeling structure. First, the Plexos LT expansion mechanis...
AI summary The document discusses adjustments made to the modeling structure for New Brunswick transmission scenarios, including enabling the Plexos LT expansion mechanism for wind resource buildout and incorporating a new cost stream for transmission costs. These changes allow for greater wind capacity additions and account for financial considerations related to the transmission infrastructure.
2040 2041 2042 Ref Energy Med DSM Energy Incremental DSM Cost First Year DSM Cost Med DSM % of "high" Navig. achievable Source: Synapse estimate of incremental DSM costs. Note: First year savings and incremental DSM costs are in nominal do...
AI summary The text discusses the estimation of incremental demand-side management (DSM) costs and the assumption of a second 345 kV transmission tie to New Brunswick by 2022/2023 to accommodate increased wind energy integration. It notes uncertainties in obtaining New Brunswick's agreement and does not account for increased firm imports from New Brunswick or New England.
nits (in a 253 MW block), and battery energy storage systems (in 20 MW blocks). Fuel, fixed O&M, and variable O&M for new build units are incorporated in the Plexos unit commitment and dispatch costs. Cost Exclusions Excluded from the comp...
AI summary The document discusses the inclusion of new generation and battery energy storage systems in the Plexos unit commitment and dispatch costs. It also highlights the exclusion of additional transmission system support investment from the revenue requirement proxy and outlines the costs associated with reactive power support devices, noting the need for a more robust transmission system as NSPI increases its reliance on renewable energy.
Final Report Table 13: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 16, NB Transmission, High Wind Capacity Credit, 600 MW Wind
AI summary The text presents a table titled 'Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet' under Scenario 16, which includes NB Transmission, a High Wind Capacity Credit, and a 600 MW Wind capacity. This scenario is part of a larger analysis of energy generation and transmission planning.
Efficiency One. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 55 Final Report Demand Side Options We have limited out assessment to two different loading scenarios, one based on NSPI’s reference...
AI summary The report discusses demand-side management (DSM) scenarios and their impact on NSPI's capacity mix, highlighting the potential to avoid new gas-fired generation and retire coal units. It also examines the benefits of NB transmission ties and additional wind resources, noting the importance of regional cooperation and infrastructure investment.
capital costs incurred a range of 6.5% to 10.4% of total NPVRR costs in our main scenarios. It is critical to continue to assess the pattern of these costs and project future costs. 5. Establish requirements to allow increased levels of wi...
AI summary The document discusses capital costs and the need to assess their future impact. It also outlines requirements for increasing wind energy on the NSPI system, including infrastructure improvements and coordination with neighboring provinces for reliability with increased wind resource utilization.
N-1-(iii)Generation Utilization and Optimization Final Report Appendix 5.6 REDACTED Confidential Input Assumptions Memo and Additional NSPI Fuel Price Info
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Scenario Sust Wind HardCode Notation Scenario Name Load Capital CapCredit NB Trans RetirePath 1 NSPI Reference Ref Ref Ref Ref No No 2 Change Case Med DSM Med DSM Ref Ref No No 3 Change Case High DSM High DSM Ref Ref No No 4 Change Case Re...
AI summary The table presents multiple scenarios (Ref, Med DSM, High DSM, etc.) with parameters including load, capital, capacity credits, and transmission. It compares different cases involving demand-side management, capacity credits, and transmission planning under various conditions.
NSPI 2017 Plus 50% +25%, +100% Wind Capacity Contribution 2017 NSPI 0% ERIS, 17% NRIS 20% All Wind 25% All Wind (GE Study) NSPI 2017 $400 Million + New Eng. Capac. Either With or Without NB Smaller intertie connection, NB Transmission Mark...
AI summary The document outlines scenarios for wind capacity contributions, NB Transmission market costs, and retirement paths (Retire Path 1 and 2) with associated financial figures, transmission planning considerations, and credit mechanisms like High Wind Capacity Credit. It includes modeling parameters for load forecasts and intertie connection options.
Cap Credit, NB Bookend Synapse: All Coal + TC1 by 2030 Only for Scen. 28-30 Transmission Description/Explanation of Load Forecast Scenarios and Modeling Parameters
AI summary The text outlines load forecast scenarios (Scen. 28-30) and modeling parameters, referencing Cap Credit and NB Trans. It focuses on transmission planning and resource assessment models.
which use 0% capacity contribution for ERIS resources, and 17% for NRIS resources), and using 20% of the installed capacity of all wind as a capacity contribution for alternative scenarios. These values could also be tested as a sensitivit...
AI summary The document outlines capacity contribution assumptions for ERIS and NRIS resources, explores scenarios with a second 345 kV tie to New Brunswick, and evaluates aggressive retirement paths for coal and Tufts Cove 1 plant. Key variables include resource costs, fuel/O&M costs, and import costs, with sensitivity analyses suggested for capacity contribution values.
flat. Gas LBL, Lazard similar costs. 40% Estimated cost trend. CF, Lower/higher installed Wind Costs – installed NSPI 2017 $2,000/kW -2.0%/year Estimated performance best Utility costs, performance available sites. Recent cost Scale declin...
AI summary The text discusses wind energy installation costs ($2,000/kW with a -2%/year decline), NB Transmission costs ($400 million for a 345 kV line), and capacity costs tied to the NE Market (FCM=$6.61/kW). It highlights declining wind costs and high transmission expenditures.
(377.1 MW) plus 30 MW increment at Mersey. Assume 10 MW increment at Wreck Cove (Source: NSPI). • All current NSPI renewables (wind, biomass) remain in place at existing MW levels. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. M08059 Generation Utilizati...
AI summary The text outlines NSPI's renewable energy assumptions, including wind capacity increments and existing facilities, along with modeling constraints from Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. It also details sustaining capital cost scenarios and references key sources.
69700Synapse Energy Economics - Att. 3
5 passages
NPCC 2016 LONG RANGE ADEQUACY OVERVIEW APPENDIX C Maritimes The Maritimes Assessment Area is a winter-peaking NPCC subregion that contains two Balancing Authorities. It is comprised of the Canadian provinces of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia,...
AI summary The Maritimes Assessment Area, a winter-peaking subregion of the NPCC, includes New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and northern Maine. It uses a 50/50 coincident load forecast method with a 20% reference margin. Wind resource planning considers mandated capacity factors, while solar is excluded. A potential tie line to Newfoundland could impact the region's footprint.
impacts. Planning Considerations for Solar Resources N/A Footprint Changes A conceptual tie line to the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador could potentially impact the Maritimes footprint.
AI summary The text outlines planning considerations for solar resources, noting that a conceptual tie line to Newfoundland and Labrador could impact the Maritimes footprint. This highlights grid planning challenges related to renewable energy integration and regional connectivity.
mands and potential NPCC CP-8 Working Group 48 Approved by the RCC - December 6, 2016 NPCC 2016 LONG RANGE ADEQUACY OVERVIEW imports to NB from NS that may begin after the completion of the HVDC interconnection to the Canadian province of...
AI summary The document discusses energy efficiency program growth in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia's planned renewable capacity additions (wind, solar, biomass), and potential impacts of retiring a coal plant. It notes that HVDC interconnection to Newfoundland may offset coal retirement, with reliability concerns if hydro capacity delays occur.
ith the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador. Should a delay occur in the introduction of energy from the new hydro capacity, the retirement of the coal unit will be correspondingly delayed? Renewable Energy Standards (RESs) have...
AI summary The text discusses renewable energy developments in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, including wind generation capacity deratings, the Maritimes Link project's role in providing hydro resources, and a planned coal unit retirement in Nova Scotia offset by hydro capacity via an HVDC cable to Newfoundland and Labrador. It highlights challenges with frequency response from wind generation and regional differences in capacity derating methodologies.
the unit retirement are comparable and are planned to coincide in timing so that the overall resource adequacy is unaffected by these changes. This HVDC cable project is currently under construction. Transmission development in the Maritim...
AI summary The document outlines transmission developments in the Maritimes, including HVDC cable projects and upgrades to mitigate contingencies and improve resource adequacy. Key projects include a 345 kV breaker installation, undersea cables between NB and PEI, and the Maritime Link HVDC cable between Newfoundland and Labrador and NS, planned for completion by 2018.
70411Proposed Terms of Reference
5 passages
e resource plan” 2 would result from running Plexos with different combinations of the input assumption sets illustrated below. Illustrative Matrix: Example of key parameters and range of assumptions Alternative assumptions: Set 1 Set 2 Se...
AI summary The text presents an illustrative matrix of alternative assumptions for an integrated resource plan (IRP), evaluating scenarios with varying parameters such as load forecasts, gas prices, transmission capacity, wind resource costs, and carbon constraints. Three assumption sets (Set 1–3) explore different levels of energy efficiency, capital requirements, and renewable energy integration.
resources, including fixed and variable O&M and any required sustaining capital, and the costs of fuel. If applicable, emission costs. 3 • Existing hydro and wind resource output profiles and operating costs, including fixed and variable O...
AI summary The text outlines the evaluation of resource costs for existing and new generation sources (hydro, wind, biomass, fossil, renewables), transmission reinforcement, and demand-side management, emphasizing data from NSPI and external sources like NREL and US EIA. Emission costs and storage resource costs are also considered.
g resource adequacy requirements), or they affect the capacity contributions available from existing and potentially new alternative capacity resources. The eight action items are characterized below: 1. Optimize the level of sustaining ca...
AI summary The document outlines eight action items addressing resource adequacy, including optimizing capital expenditures for fossil-fueled plants, conducting system studies for higher wind penetration, regional coordination with Newfoundland and New Brunswick, evaluating wind capacity value, exploring market opportunities, assessing demand response, securing DSM commitments, and evaluating Mersey Development's 30 MW capacity addition.
through programmatic efforts to achieve peak demand reduction through demand response options beyond those currently obtained via interruptible industrial load. 2 – Conduct Additional System Studies NSPI has not yet conducted any updates t...
AI summary NSPI has not conducted updated studies on wind penetration or transmission system support needs for higher wind integration. It acknowledges reduced steam unit requirements by 2020 but emphasizes the need for further analysis on coal plant retirement scenarios. Storage alternatives were discussed but deemed 'not cost competitive' based on Levelized Electricity Cost to Grid assessments.
ain energy storage technologies and use cases are currently in the midst of rapid cost declines that will likely persist.” (Executive Summary, page 3, emphasis added) 3- Regional Coordination Options Continuing regional coordination has sy...
AI summary The text highlights rapid declines in energy storage costs, advocates for regional grid coordination among Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland to enhance wind integration, and critiques NSPI's low wind capacity credit (12%) compared to higher regional benchmarks (20%-46%). It emphasizes technical cooperation and grid modernization for reliability and decarbonization.
70759Response to Stakeholder Comments on Proposed Terms of Reference - Track
5 passages
ts illustrated below. Due to time limitations, we will not define scenarios for all possible permutations of input assumptions. Illustrative Matrix: Example of key parameters and range of assumptions Alternative assumptions: Set 1 Set 2 Se...
AI summary The text presents a matrix of alternative assumptions for energy planning parameters, including load, capital requirements, gas prices, transmission, wind resource costs, demand response, storage, carbon costs, and balancing areas. Scenarios explore varying levels of energy efficiency, capital needs, and resource availability.
resource categories are carefully specified for use in Plexos; we anticipate that early provision (July) by NSPI of detailed Plexos input files in Plexos configuration will be of particular value: 4 • Existing coal, oil and gas thermal res...
AI summary The document outlines resource categories for Plexos modeling, including fossil fuels, renewables, storage, transmission, and demand-side management. NSPI will provide detailed input files, with data sources including NREL, US EIA, and others. The load forecast aligns with NSPI's latest projections.
g resource adequacy requirements), or they affect the capacity contributions available from existing and potentially new alternative capacity resources. The eight action items are characterized below: 1. Optimize the level of sustaining ca...
AI summary The document outlines eight action items addressing resource adequacy, including optimizing capital expenditures, studying wind penetration impacts, regional coordination, evaluating wind resources, monitoring market opportunities, assessing demand response, securing DSM commitments, and evaluating Mersey Development. These steps aim to ensure system reliability and capacity contributions.
through programmatic efforts to achieve peak demand reduction through demand response options beyond those currently obtained via interruptible industrial load. 2 – Conduct Additional System Studies NSPI has not yet conducted any updates t...
AI summary NSPI must conduct additional studies on wind penetration and transmission support, including dynamic reactive supply and storage. The Board questions NSPI's claim that storage is not cost-competitive. NSPI acknowledges reduced steam unit needs post-2020 but requires further analysis of coal plant retirement scenarios.
f capacity and Quebec’s use of 30%.13 The contribution of wind resources to capacity 11 Ibid. 12 EPRI, Energy Storage Cost Summary for Utility Planning:Executive Summary, November 2016, page 17. Available at http://www.tdworld.com/sites/td...
AI summary The text examines wind capacity credits, import capacity via the Maritime Link and New Brunswick, and the role of demand response/DSM programs in meeting resource adequacy needs. It highlights potential increases in resource adequacy from wind credits and the need to explore import capacity and DSM commitments.