Nova Scotia Power filed its 2019 Ten-Year System Outlook, projecting a near-term firm capacity deficit and outlining the energy mix transition underway ahead of a directed IRP process.

M08929 · P-884 - Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) - Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) and M08059--Generation Utilization and Optimization

AI summary

NS Power forecast a Forecasting Methodology net system requirement declining at 0.4% annually through 2029, driven by Demand Side Management savings and behind-the-meter solar offsetting growth from electric heating and industrial load, while peak demand remains roughly flat at approximately 2,200 MW.
The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process, directed by the UARB in its October 5, 2018 letter (M08059), was underway with pre-IRP deliverables due July 31, 2019, including Capacity, Supply Options, and Renewables Stability studies to inform long-term resource decisions.
Ns Power reported a forecast firm capacity deficit of 41–55 MW throughout the planning period (Figure 22), attributable in part to the pending Lingan 2 retirement and the unresolved status of the Tusket CT replacement (denied January 7, 2019; resubmitted June 17, 2019), with the company stating it can manage near-term reliability and find interim solutions if required.
Environmental Compliance obligations tighten significantly over the decade: NS Power's Cap And Trade free GHG allowances decline from 6.334 Mt in 2019 to 5.087 Mt in 2022, SO₂ multi-year caps drop sharply from 2020, and the 40% Renewable Energy standard under the Renewable Electricity Standard must be met from 2020 onward, with Maritime Link Muskrat Falls energy (assumed June 1, 2020 start) as a key compliance tool.
Transmission Planning activities include a wind integration stability study (PSC) to determine requirements for wind penetration beyond ~600 MW, ongoing NPCC A-10 methodology review, Western Valley line upgrades, and new substation work driven partly by a surge in cannabis facility load interconnection requests across the province.

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What was filed

Documents filed on this day

N-3 NS Power 2019 Ten Year System Outlook dated July 2, 2019 exhibits