Topic:"Demand Side Management" in M08059

Plant Utilization – Capacity Factors – Coal and Tufts Cove Units ............................................ 41 Energy by Fuel Type..............................................................................................................

AI summary The document discusses plant utilization, capacity factors for coal and Tufts Cove units, energy by fuel type, emissions, and sensitivities (e.g., battery costs, gas prices). It also outlines updates since a technical conference, demand-side options, NB transmission, and additional wind resources in the discussion and recommendations section.

ization and Optimization M08059 1 Final Report Major Findings The results of our analyses indicate the following specific major findings:  The net present value of wholesale1 system revenue requirements (NPVRR, 2018‐2042 period) across th...

AI summary The analysis shows that scenarios with moderate demand-side management (DSM) and wind capacity credits yield the lowest net present value of revenue requirements (NPVRR), outperforming reference scenarios. Wind and energy efficiency are highlighted as cost-effective alternatives to fossil fuels and imports, with medium DSM levels achieving 2% annual energy efficiency gains. Scenarios with 20% wind capacity credits and additional wind generation show the greatest cost reductions.

This result illustrates the value of wind and energy efficiency resources in comparison to gas, oil, and import energy, which in general are otherwise the marginal energy sources.  All scenarios utilizing a load forecast that reflects med...

AI summary The text compares wind and energy efficiency resources to fossil fuels and imports, showing that higher demand-side management (DSM) and wind capacity accelerate coal unit retirements (as early as 2024) and reduce planning reserve requirements by 157 MW by 2029. Scenario 1, based on 2017 forecasts, retains thermal fleet capacity through 2030, but other scenarios demonstrate lower NPVRR costs.

Plexos selects more wind than this in all scenarios). However, as noted, all other scenarios demonstrate lower NPVRR costs than this reference case, illustrating the critical 1 In this context, “wholesale” implies supply and energy‐efficie...

AI summary The analysis highlights that alternative resources like energy efficiency and wind generation can reduce NPVRR costs and influence coal unit retirement timelines. It emphasizes the importance of considering peak load reduction strategies over reliance on wind alone, with implications for resource planning and cost management in Nova Scotia's energy sector.

ources—peak load reduction through energy efficiency and incremental wind, in these instances—when considering whether, or when, to designate the next coal unit for retirement. Notably, this result also indicates a need to construct a new...

AI summary The analysis highlights the economic necessity of constructing a new combined cycle unit in 2023, driven by the Plexos model's capacity expansion algorithm, despite low utilization through 2030. It also notes that two coal unit retirements are projected in the reference scenario over the next decade, influenced by DSM scenarios and wind capacity impacts.

nd scenario 16). This reflects the effect of either high sustaining capital costs or increased wind installations and wind capacity crediting in the Plexos retirement decision.  The presence of fossil‐fleet emission constraints drives dow...

AI summary The text examines energy utilization under fossil-fleet emission constraints, highlighting reduced coal fleet capacity factors, increased reliance on gas/oil, and the impact of wind energy and DSM scenarios. It emphasizes the need for alternative resource planning to achieve lower costs through higher peak load reduction or wind energy integration.

the low gas price sensitivity, Scenario 13 (high wind, but with reference level capacity crediting) is more expensive (+ 2.3 percent NPVRR) under the low gas scenario 1. For base level 4 $90 million is the difference between the NPVRR for...

AI summary The text compares NPVRR differences across scenarios (13, 2, 4LG) under varying gas prices and DSM load levels. Scenario 13 shows higher costs under low gas prices but lower costs under high gas prices. Scenario 2 involves different timelines for retiring coal units and building new resources. A correction is noted for a double-counting error in the Draft Report's NPVRR analysis.

evaluated. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 9 Final Report capacity and generation, or overall operating costs of the system—as well as more detailed, unit or plant‐specific results...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics evaluates NSPI's thermal generation utilization and optimization, using Plexos to model system costs, including fuel, O&M, and DSM expenses, and calculating annual revenue requirements for different scenarios.

Sust Wind NB HardCode Scen. # Scenario Name Load Capital CapCredit Trans RetirePath 1 Ref Ref Ref Ref No No 2 Med DSM Med DSM Ref Ref No No 4 Ref/HighSusCap Ref High Ref No No 5 Med DSM/HighSusCap Med DSM High Ref No No 7 Ref/HighWindCapCr...

AI summary The table outlines various scenarios with different combinations of demand-side management (DSM), capacity credits, and transmission (NB Trans) options. The note highlights 'RetirePath1,' which includes forced retirements of coal plants beyond Lingan 2 in 2020/21, specifically Lingan 4 (2023) and Lingan 3 (2024), modeled in Plexos.

Wind Scen./ Sust CapCre NB Sens. # Sensitivity Name Load Capital dit Trans Comment Low Battery Cost Sensitivities 1‐LB Ref Low Battery Cost Ref Ref Ref No Med DSM High Wind Cap Cred 8‐LB Low Batt Cost Med DSM Ref High No 13‐LB Ref NB Trans...

AI summary The text presents sensitivity analyses for energy planning scenarios, including low battery costs, gas price variations, and forced retirements of power generation assets (Tufts Cove 3, Trenton 5). It also references updates to cost and availability models in energy planning tools like Plexos.

NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 12 Final Report Load Table 3 below lists the projected peak load and annual energy levels for Nova Scotia. The firm peak represents the load level for resource planning—interrupti...

AI summary The document outlines NSPI's projected peak load and annual energy levels for Nova Scotia, emphasizing DSM's role in reducing both peak and energy requirements. Reference scenarios use NSPI’s 2017 Load Forecast, while medium DSM levels assume increased Efficiency One spending, leading to roughly doubled peak load reductions after an initial ramping period.

M Firm Peak with DSM Ref Energy Medium DSM Energy Source: Table 3. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 13 Final Report Table 3. Peak Load, DSM Contribution, and Annual Energy – Referen...

AI summary The table compares peak load, demand-side management (DSM) contribution, and annual energy usage under reference and medium DSM scenarios from 2018 to 2022. It shows the impact of DSM on firm peak load and annual energy consumption.

251 2,159 27 438 1,972 10,951 10,045 2035 2,437 153 16 268 2,169 27 465 1,972 10,949 9,989 2036 2,464 153 16 284 2,180 28 493 1,971 10,947 9,934 2037 2,491 153 17 301 2,190 28 521 1,970 10,945 9,879 2038 2,519 153 17 318 2,201 28 549 1,970...

AI summary The text presents numerical data related to energy planning and includes references to fuel and market price projections by NSPI as of November 2017. It also mentions a confidential appendix containing detailed fuel and market prices.

ble 8a below lists the retirement and the build results for the initial scenarios executed; Table 8b lists the retirement and build results for the low battery cost and fuel price sensitivity runs. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Therm...

AI summary The text references tables and figures that outline the retirement and build results for various scenarios, as well as planning reserve margin trends. These scenarios include different levels of demand-side management, battery costs, and fuel price sensitivities, and are part of an analysis related to thermal generation utilization and optimization.

Sc2 Med DSM 24.2% 23.8% 23.6% 23.4% 23.1% 23.9% 24.6% 25.3% 26.3% 26.9% 29.0% 29.0% 29.1% Sc4 Ref/HighSusCap 23.4% 20.2% 20.1% 24.5% 23.5% 22.4% 21.9% 21.7% 21.8% 21.6% 21.0% 28.6% 28.0% Sc5 Med DSM/HighSusCap 24.2% 23.8% 23.6% 23.4% 23.1%...

AI summary The text presents a series of scenarios (Sc2, Sc4, Sc5, etc.) with percentage values, likely representing different energy modeling outcomes. These scenarios include variations in demand-side management (DSM), renewable energy capacity, and transmission considerations. The data reflects sensitivity analyses, particularly for low battery cost scenarios.

Batt 80 Batt 40 Ref/NB Ret Lin 4 16 Trans/HighWindCapCr Wind 100 Ret Lin 2 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 edit/600MWWind Batt 20 Batt 20 Batt 20 Batt 80 Batt 20 Batt 20 Med DSM/NB Ret Lin 4 17 Trans/HighWindCapCr Wind 100 Ret...

AI summary The text contains a table with references to wind capacity and demand-side management (DSM) initiatives in New Brunswick, including terms like 'Trans/HighWindCapCr' and 'Med DSM/NB'. It also includes battery capacity references such as 'Batt 20' and 'Batt 80'.

Table 8. Revenue Requirement Proxy Computation Component Description/Definition Comment Computed/Accounted for within Plexos Fuel Coal, Oil, Gas burn costs Plexos Dispatch Cost. Variable O&M Based on per MWh for Most of VOM costs reflect t...

AI summary The table outlines the components of the revenue requirement proxy computation, distinguishing between those calculated within Plexos and those accounted for outside of it. It details costs such as fuel, variable and fixed O&M, net interchange purchases, and incremental DSM and transmission costs.

reflected in the model. Surplus Energy flows over the Maritime Link were modeled within Plexos using market price criteria, and the costs are included as part of the total interchange purchase costs. Sustaining Capital Costs Sustaining cap...

AI summary The document discusses modeling of surplus energy flows over the Maritime Link using Plexos and the inclusion of these costs in interchange purchase costs. It also outlines the method used to estimate sustaining capital costs based on NSPI's 2017 report and how these costs are adjusted in scenarios involving unit retirements. Additionally, it covers reference and medium DSM load scenarios and their impact on energy requirements and cost estimates.

rements than the reference scenario, effectively incorporating an incremental level of DSM energy and peak load savings. Figure 5 below shows the trajectory differences and incremental cost estimates. The Incremental DSM costs assumed for...

AI summary The text discusses the incremental costs of demand-side management (DSM) scenarios, referencing Efficiency One's estimates and Navigant's 'high case' achievable savings. It notes that the Medium DSM scenario assumes 36% of the 'high case' savings on average, leading to lower per-unit costs compared to the 'high case' estimate of 60 cents per kWh. Costs are projected to rise rapidly from 2018 to 2026 before stabilizing.

d DSM savings in the Med DSM case average 36 percent of Efficiency One’s “high case” achievable savings, reaching a maximum of 63 percent of the achievable savings in 2023, as seen in Figure 5. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal G...

AI summary The text discusses DSM savings in the Med DSM case, noting that savings average 36% of Efficiency One’s high case achievable savings, reaching up to 63% in 2023. It also mentions annual DSM costs from 2017 and incremental costs over the 2018–2042 period, highlighting their relatively small impact on wholesale resource revenue requirements.

11,000 110.0 Med DSM savings as fraction of Navigant "high" case savings 10,000 100.0 Incremetnal DSM First Year Costs, cents/kWh, and 9,000 90.0 Incremental DSM Costs, $ Millions, and Ref and Med DSM Annual Energy, GWh 8,000 80.0

AI summary The text presents data on demand-side management (DSM) savings and costs, showing the relationship between Med DSM savings as a fraction of Navigant's 'high' case savings and incremental DSM costs in cents per kWh and millions of dollars.

2040 2041 2042 Ref Energy Med DSM Energy Incremental DSM Cost First Year DSM Cost Med DSM % of "high" Navig. achievable Source: Synapse estimate of incremental DSM costs. Note: First year savings and incremental DSM costs are in nominal do...

AI summary The text discusses the estimation of incremental demand-side management (DSM) costs and the assumption of a second 345 kV transmission tie to New Brunswick by 2022/2023 to accommodate increased wind energy integration. It notes uncertainties in obtaining New Brunswick's agreement and does not account for increased firm imports from New Brunswick or New England.

requirements to allow for the inclusion of more wind energy on the system. Since this increase in interconnection capacity would extend back into New Brunswick considerably (we assumed a total cost 27 First‐year DSM costs for 2017 were est...

AI summary The text discusses the cost-sharing arrangement for interconnection reinforcement to New Brunswick, estimating first-year DSM costs for 2017 and new build costs for various energy resources. It references modeling by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. and the use of Plexos for unit commitment and dispatch costs.

Retire Retire Fuel 31.0% 29.0% 30.8% 28.4% 29.5% 26.7% 32.6% 31.8% 29.4% 30.7% 30.6% 29.4% VOM 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% RE Cost 21.0% 22.0% 22.1% 22.2% 21.4% 21.2% 19.7% 19.4% 20.3% 21.3% 21.2% 22.1% Fixe...

AI summary The text presents a series of percentages related to various cost components, including fuel, variable operating and maintenance (VOM), renewable energy (RE) costs, fixed operating and maintenance (O&M), sustained capital (SustCap), new build, incremental demand-side management (Inc DSM), New Brunswick (NB) transmission, Nova Scotia Maritime Link (NS ML) costs, and Maritime Link surplus and NB import costs.

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 Sc1 Sc2 Sc 4 Ref/HighSusCap Sc5 Med DSM/ Sc7 Sc8 Ref MedDSM HighSusCap HiWndCC HiWndCC MedDSM Sc13 Sc14 Sc16 Sc17...

AI summary The text presents a table with multiple scenarios (Sc1, Sc2, Sc4, etc.) spanning from 2018 to 2042, likely related to energy planning or forecasting. It also references a document titled 'NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 40' from Synapse Energy Economics, Inc.

verage annual capacity factors because the wind and the saved energy displaces what would otherwise be marginal energy generation at the Tufts Cove facility, in addition to displacing economy imports. Tables 11 through 14, which follow the...

AI summary The text discusses the impact of demand-side management (DSM) and wind energy on thermal generation utilization in different scenarios. It references tables and figures showing capacity factors for various units and scenarios, including the effects of lower load and higher wind generation.

Aggregate Utilization ‐ Scenario 2, Medium DSM 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% Capacity factor 30.0% 20.0% Coal 10.0% TC 1-3 TC 4-6 0.0% Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 42 Final Report Figure 10...

AI summary The text presents capacity factor data for various scenarios involving thermal generation utilization and optimization, including different levels of DSM and wind capacity credits. The charts illustrate the impact of these scenarios on coal and transmission capacity factors.

ew CC ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 6% 3% 3% 9% 12% New CT Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 44 Final Report Table 12: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 2, Medium D...

AI summary The document includes a table titled 'Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet' under Scenario 2, Medium DSM, from a regulatory proceeding related to NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization (M08059). The table contains data related to capacity factors, but the exact details are not provided in the text snippet.

zation and Optimization M08059 44 Final Report Table 12: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 2, Medium DSM

AI summary The text references a regulatory proceeding document related to capacity factors for the thermal fleet under Scenario 2, Medium DSM. The context includes a final report and a table, but no detailed discussion or arguments are provided in the excerpt.

. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 53 Final Report MWh ($CA) for utility‐scale wind.32 Colorado’s Xcel reported results for wind and solar resource procurements with relatively low...

AI summary The report discusses the low costs of renewable energy resources, particularly wind and solar paired with storage, and highlights the potential for NSPI to incorporate more wind into its resource planning. It also notes the importance of considering additional resources like demand response and storage for peak load reduction, though these were not fully explored in the analysis.

e estimates. The ratio was also applied to the market costs of New Brunswick imports, and Surplus energy from Newfoundland, as those costs are generally tied to the price of natural gas in the region. The DSM cost accounting and the report...

AI summary The document discusses updates to DSM cost accounting, incorporating Efficiency One's preliminary estimates of incremental DSM savings. It notes that the first-year costs for these savings are around 60 cents per kWh, but adjusted downward due to expected lower-cost efficiency spending in Nova Scotia. Total DSM costs for medium scenarios are increased to ~$410 million (NPV RR).

vailable. Nonetheless, our total DSM costs for medium DSM scenarios are increased to ~$410 million (NPV RR), compared to the ~$330 million reported in our Draft Report and at the technical conference. The Draft Report and the technical con...

AI summary The report discusses the correction of a post-processing error in the Draft Report and technical conference slides, which led to an overestimation of DSM costs and NPVRR costs for scenarios with increased wind levels. The correction lowers the NPVRR for these scenarios, but does not affect build/retirement decisions. References are made to Efficiency One's letters regarding Navigant report estimates.

Efficiency One. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 55 Final Report Demand Side Options We have limited out assessment to two different loading scenarios, one based on NSPI’s reference...

AI summary The report discusses demand-side management (DSM) scenarios and their impact on NSPI's capacity mix, highlighting the potential to avoid new gas-fired generation and retire coal units. It also examines the benefits of NB transmission ties and additional wind resources, noting the importance of regional cooperation and infrastructure investment.

tion could be established. We anticipate that the Regional Electricity Cooperation and Strategic Infrastructure Investment (RECSI) report will shed more light on options for the Province to consider. 4.2. Recommendations Based on our analy...

AI summary The report recommends next steps for NSPI, including confirming energy efficiency potential, evaluating demand response, investigating battery storage costs, and monitoring sustaining capital costs for the thermal fleet. These steps aim to support the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process and ensure accurate modeling of resource options.

Notation Scenario Name Load Capital CapCredit NB Trans RetirePath 1 NSPI Reference Ref Ref Ref Ref No No 2 Change Case Med DSM Med DSM Ref Ref No No 3 Change Case High DSM High DSM Ref Ref No No 4 Change Case Ref/HighSusCap Ref High Ref No...

AI summary The table outlines multiple regulatory scenarios (e.g., Med DSM, HighSusCap) with varying load, capital, and credit parameters. Each scenario combines different demand-side management (DSM) levels, capital credit thresholds, and transmission considerations, reflecting potential regulatory options under analysis.

Notation Scenario Name Load Capital CapCredit NB Trans RetirePath 1 NSPI Reference Ref Ref Ref Ref No No 2 Change Case Med DSM Med DSM Ref Ref No No 3 Change Case High DSM High DSM Ref Ref No No 4 Change Case Ref/HighSusCap Ref High Ref No...

AI summary The table outlines multiple regulatory scenarios (e.g., 'Med DSM', 'High DSM', 'Ref/HighSusCap') with associated parameters like Load, Capital, and CapCredit. Each scenario represents different cases under consideration, including reference scenarios and modifications to demand-side management (DSM) levels and capital credit thresholds.

NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-2 Appendix Table 2: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 2, Medium DSM

AI summary The document discusses NSPI's thermal generation utilization and optimization under 'Scenario 2, Medium DSM,' focusing on capacity factors for the thermal fleet. It references Appendix Table 2, which likely details capacity factor data for different thermal generation scenarios.

- - - 1% 1% 1% 5% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 8% 1% 6% 4% 3% 11% 11% New CT Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-4 Appendix Table 4: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario...

AI summary The text references Appendix Table 4 from Synapse Energy Economics, Inc.'s analysis of NSPI's thermal generation utilization and optimization under Scenario 5 (Medium DSM, High Sustaining Capital Cost). The table presents capacity factors for thermal fleet operations, though specific data values are not detailed in the excerpt.

NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-4 Appendix Table 4: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 5, Medium DSM, High Sustaining Capital Cost

AI summary The document references NSPI's thermal generation utilization and optimization under Scenario 5, which involves Medium DSM (Demand Side Management) and High Sustaining Capital Cost. Appendix Table 4 provides capacity factors for the thermal fleet under this scenario.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - New CT Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-6 Appendix Table 6: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 8, Medium DSM, High Win...

AI summary Analyzes capacity factors for NSPI's thermal fleet under Scenario 8, incorporating Medium DSM and High Wind Capacity Credit. Focuses on thermal generation utilization optimization as part of regulatory proceeding M08059.

nc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-6 Appendix Table 6: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 8, Medium DSM, High Wind Capacity Credit

AI summary The document references NSPI's thermal generation utilization and optimization under Scenario 8, which includes Medium DSM and High Wind Capacity Credit. Appendix Table 6 details capacity factors for the thermal fleet, indicating analysis of generation efficiency under varying demand-side management and renewable energy scenarios.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - New CT Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-10 Appendix Table 10: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 17, Medium DMS, NB Tr...

AI summary The document references a scenario (Scenario 17) involving Medium DMS, NB Transmission, and High Wind Capacity Credit, with a table titled 'Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet' from Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. under matter M08059.

al Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-10 Appendix Table 10: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 17, Medium DMS, NB Transmission, High Wind Capacity Credit

AI summary The text refers to a scenario (Scenario 17) in a regulatory proceeding related to generation utilization and optimization, focusing on capacity factors for the thermal fleet under conditions of Medium DMS, NB Transmission, and High Wind Capacity Credit. The appendix table likely details these factors, contributing to discussions on energy system planning and resource allocation.

- - - - - 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 3% New CT Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-12 Appendix Table 12: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 2...

AI summary The document presents an appendix table from a regulatory proceeding, focusing on capacity factors for the thermal fleet under Scenario 26, which includes a Medium DSM (Demand Side Management) and Retirement Path. It includes data percentages and references a proceeding (M08059) and an entity (Synapse Energy Economics, Inc.).

mics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-12 Appendix Table 12: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 26, Medium DSM, Retirement Path

AI summary This document discusses the capacity factors of the thermal fleet under Scenario 26, which includes a Medium Demand Side Management (DSM) approach and a retirement path. It is part of a regulatory proceeding related to NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization.

- - - - - 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 5% New CT Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-13 Appendix 5.5 Detailed Scenario Results – Energy by Fuel Type S...

AI summary The document contains detailed scenario results from an energy analysis conducted by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. for Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) on thermal generation utilization and optimization, with multiple scenarios exploring different fuel types, DSM levels, and wind capacity credits.

h Wind Capacity Credit Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.5-6 Figure 11: Annual Energy By Fuel Type Scenario 25, Retirement Path Figure 12: Annual Energy By Fuel Type Scenario 26,...

AI summary The text references two scenarios (Scenario 25 and Scenario 26) related to NSPI's thermal generation utilization and optimization, with a focus on energy production by fuel type under different retirement paths and DSM levels.

Appendix 5.6 REDACTED CONFIDENTIAL Memorandum TO: M08059 GENERATION UTILIZATION AND OPTIMIZATION STAKEHOLDERS FROM: BOB FAGAN, RACHEL WILSON, DAVID WHITE – SYNAPSE ENERGY ECONOMICS DATE: OCTOBER 16, 2017 RE: KEY INPUT ASSUMPTIONS AND MODEL...

AI summary This memo outlines Synapse Energy Economics' modeling plan for the Generation Utilization and Optimization study, seeking stakeholder input on assumptions related to energy storage, wind/solar costs, and demand-side management (DSM) scenarios. The analysis compares long-term costs of retaining NSPI’s thermal fleet versus alternative resource mixes, though it explicitly states it is not an integrated resource plan (IRP).

Scenario Sust Wind HardCode Notation Scenario Name Load Capital CapCredit NB Trans RetirePath 1 NSPI Reference Ref Ref Ref Ref No No 2 Change Case Med DSM Med DSM Ref Ref No No 3 Change Case High DSM High DSM Ref Ref No No 4 Change Case Re...

AI summary The table presents multiple scenarios (Ref, Med DSM, High DSM, etc.) with parameters including load, capital, capacity credits, and transmission. It compares different cases involving demand-side management, capacity credits, and transmission planning under various conditions.

usCap/HighWindCapCredit High DSM High High No No 13 Change Case Ref/NB Trans Ref Ref Ref Yes No 14 Change Case Med DSM/NB Trans Med DSM Ref Ref Yes No 15 Change Case High DSM/NB Trans High DSM Ref Ref Yes No 16 Change Case Ref/NB Trans/Hig...

AI summary A table listing multiple 'Change Case' scenarios with varying combinations of parameters such as 'Ref,' 'Med DSM,' 'High DSM,' 'NB Trans,' 'HighWindCapCredit,' 'HighSusCap,' and 'RetirePath1,' along with Yes/No indicators for associated attributes. The data appears to categorize cases based on demand-side management (DSM) levels, retirement paths, and credit types.

Ref Ref Ref Yes Yes 26 Change Case Med DSM/RetirePath1 Med DSM Ref Ref Yes Yes 27 Change Case High DSM/RetirePath1 High DSM Ref Ref Yes Yes 28 Change Case Ref/RetirePath2 Ref Ref Ref Yes Yes 29 Change Case Med DSM/RetirePath2 Med DSM Ref R...

AI summary The document outlines modeling parameters for different scenarios involving demand-side management (DSM) and wind capacity contributions. It references Synapse Energy Economics, Inc.'s Modeling Plan and includes sensitivity cases for load forecasts, capital costs, and wind capacity. Key variables include reference values and alternative scenarios such as 'High DSM' and '25% All Wind (GE Study)'.

The modeling plan includes scenarios with three different “net” load levels. Peak shaving and increased energy efficiency resources in Nova Scotia are critical resources that cannot be as well-represented in PLEXOS as the supply-side alter...

AI summary The modeling plan uses three scenarios (reference, mid DSM, high DSM) to evaluate demand-side management (DSM) and energy efficiency in Nova Scotia. It prioritizes demand-side resources due to PLEXOS' limitations in representing them. Mid DSM assumes 2.0%/year energy efficiency gains, while high DSM adds peak shaving through demand response. Costs are calculated separately using utility-specific metrics.

of these load scenarios will be accounted for outside of PLEXOS and will be based on a to-be- determined utility cost per MWh saved (energy) and utility cost per kW of firm peak reduction. We have not estimated these costs at this point in...

AI summary The text discusses load scenarios outside PLEXOS modeling, referencing future determination of utility costs per MWh saved and per kW of firm peak reduction. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. acknowledges these costs have not yet been estimated but will be addressed with stakeholder input.

course of the modeling. The PLEXOS modeling can proceed without having a firm estimate for these costs; the envelope of quantity reductions is the key input assumption. As noted, the mid DSM scenario includes ramping up the current energy...

AI summary The analysis explores mid and high DSM scenarios, emphasizing energy efficiency and demand response impacts on peak load reduction. Capital cost assumptions, wind capacity contributions, and sensitivity analyses are discussed to evaluate thermal unit retention economics and capacity expansion paths.

Table 3. Load Forecast Scenarios All Cases Reference Case MW Medium DSM Case MW High DSM Case MW Compare Annual GWh Energy Compare 2014 IRP - Base Case Annual Annual Add'l Medium Annual 2014 IRP - Inter- Increm. Increm. Demand Peak Firm Pe...

AI summary The table presents load forecast scenarios comparing baseline, medium, and high demand-side management (DSM) cases from 2018–2021, showing reductions in peak loads and annual energy consumption under increasing DSM penetration levels.

g resource adequacy requirements), or they affect the capacity contributions available from existing and potentially new alternative capacity resources. The eight action items are characterized below: 1. Optimize the level of sustaining ca...

AI summary The text outlines eight action items addressing resource adequacy, including optimizing fossil fuel capital expenditures, conducting wind penetration studies, regional coordination, evaluating wind capacity value, monitoring market opportunities, assessing demand response, securing DSM commitments, and evaluating Mersey Development. These focus on reliability, transmission, and renewable integration.

‐stated at the 4/13/2017 technical conference, is not well‐supported. It is not at all clear that lengthy retention of the coal units was the most economic option arising from the 2014 IRP analysis.2 2 A truer optimization, given the model...

AI summary The text critiques the 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) analysis for not adequately considering alternative capacity options to coal units, emphasizing the need for iterative planning and demand-side management (DSM) strategies to achieve cost-effective surplus capacity.

through programmatic efforts to achieve peak demand reduction through demand response options beyond those currently obtained via interruptible industrial load. 2 – Conduct Additional System Studies NSPI has not yet conducted any updates t...

AI summary NSPI proposes demand response beyond interruptible industrial load for peak reduction but lacks updated studies on wind penetration and transmission support. Storage options are deemed non-competitive based on Levelized Electricity Cost to Grid, though broader system reliability and coal plant retirement scenarios require further analysis.

t paths. Additional firm capacity could also be available across the Maritime Link to meet resource adequacy needs. 6 – Demand Response and DSM Resource Commitments through Energy Efficiency Programs NSPI’s need for capacity resources is p...

AI summary NSPI's capacity needs are based on meeting peak load, which occurs infrequently. Demand response mechanisms could reduce the need for up to 300 MW of capacity. The 2016 load duration curve illustrates that peak loads are brief, suggesting demand response could address most capacity requirements.

7009 7885 8761 Hours per Year Load Greater than Indicated Value Source: NSPI OASIS, Hourly Load Data, 2016. 10 Based on 600 MW (20% ‐ 12%). 7 In the most recent load forecast, NSPI projects increasing peak load. In response to the Board’s...

AI summary NSPI's load forecast projects increasing peak demand, citing Synapse's report as justification. However, Synapse recommends refining peak load calculations due to historically flat historical peaks. The text argues for urgent analysis of alternatives to coal plant investments, emphasizing a portfolio approach over single substitutions to ensure cost-effective, reliable service.

ce for NSPI customers. A portfolio of alternatives, rather than a single substitution of new capacity for coal plants,12 is likely the lowest cost among competing alternatives to coal plant retention. We suggest a rigorous analytical appro...

AI summary The text advocates for a portfolio approach to coal plant alternatives, emphasizing cost-effectiveness through demand-side management and advanced modeling tools like PLEXOS. It stresses the need to evaluate both supply-side and demand-side options, including energy efficiency and demand response, while accounting for greenhouse gas reduction values in capacity expansion analyses.

NSPI’s projected requirements. Any analysis must first rigorously explore the cost and capability of demand side options, and accurately represent their attributes in any capacity expansion exercise. 11 NSPI response to NS UARB IR‐2 (b‐c)....

AI summary NSPI emphasizes rigorous analysis of demand-side options for capacity expansion, critiques its own example of substituting a combustion turbine for a coal plant as oversimplified, and stresses the need for updated assumptions in supply-side alternatives. The analysis must address ramping requirements and wind resource integration.

hnologies are increasingly attractive for a number of specialized power grid uses, but none are yet cost-competitive for the transformational scenarios envisioned by certain renewable energy advocates • Although energy storage technology h...

AI summary Energy storage technologies are not yet cost-competitive for large-scale renewable energy transformation scenarios but show value in grid strengthening (e.g., frequency regulation) and reducing commercial/industrial demand charges through demand response programs.

Probabilistic Assessment Overview  General Overview – The Maritimes Area is a winter peaking area with separate jurisdictions and regulators in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island (PEI), and Northern Maine. The GE MARS model...

AI summary The Maritimes Area probabilistic assessment uses the NPCC's GE MARS model to evaluate resource adequacy, showing minimal changes in LOLH and EUE despite increased demand from electric heating. Capacity resources and operating procedures mitigate reliability risks, aligning with a 20% reserve margin criterion.

0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 Margins remain above 20% in 2018 and LOLH (hours/year) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 near 20% in 2020. Summary The Maritimes Area is comprised of four sub-areas, New Brunswick (NB), Nova Scotia (NS), Prince Edward Island...

AI summary The Maritimes Area (NB, NS, PEI, NM) uses a 20% reserve margin target aligned with NPCC's 0.1 days/year loss of load expectation. Resource adequacy reviews confirm this correlation. Load growth is flat (0.2% summer, -0.13% winter annually), though NB's southeast outpaces others. DSM programs aim to manage peak demand, and NB Power has upgraded infrastructure.

mands and potential NPCC CP-8 Working Group 48 Approved by the RCC - December 6, 2016 NPCC 2016 LONG RANGE ADEQUACY OVERVIEW imports to NB from NS that may begin after the completion of the HVDC interconnection to the Canadian province of...

AI summary The document discusses energy efficiency program growth in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia's planned renewable capacity additions (wind, solar, biomass), and potential impacts of retiring a coal plant. It notes that HVDC interconnection to Newfoundland may offset coal retirement, with reliability concerns if hydro capacity delays occur.

ot designed to follow load to the degree expected over the coming years. The magnitude of this load following can be up to the full nameplate capacity of the wind on the system (approximately 600 MW). Retaining the thermal units offers fle...

AI summary NSPI proposes retaining thermal units for flexibility amid environmental regulations and cap-and-trade commitments, requiring $400M over ten years. Questions challenge the plan's customer advantage, wind capacity limits, alternative energy sources, capital forecasts, and renewable integration costs.

resources, including fixed and variable O&M and any required sustaining capital, and the costs of fuel. If applicable, emission costs. 3 • Existing hydro and wind resource output profiles and operating costs, including fixed and variable O...

AI summary The text outlines the evaluation of resource costs for existing and new generation sources (hydro, wind, biomass, fossil, renewables), transmission reinforcement, and demand-side management, emphasizing data from NSPI and external sources like NREL and US EIA. Emission costs and storage resource costs are also considered.

g resource adequacy requirements), or they affect the capacity contributions available from existing and potentially new alternative capacity resources. The eight action items are characterized below: 1. Optimize the level of sustaining ca...

AI summary The document outlines eight action items addressing resource adequacy, including optimizing capital expenditures for fossil-fueled plants, conducting system studies for higher wind penetration, regional coordination with Newfoundland and New Brunswick, evaluating wind capacity value, exploring market opportunities, assessing demand response, securing DSM commitments, and evaluating Mersey Development's 30 MW capacity addition.

opportunities. 7. Obtain DSM resource commitments consistent with the IRP analysis. 8. Evaluate options for Mersey Development, and the potential to add 30 MW of capacity to the system. In addition to these IRP action items, continuing red...

AI summary The document outlines IRP action items, including DSM resource commitments and evaluating Mersey Development's 30 MW capacity potential. It criticizes NSPI for not rigorously analyzing the economic optimality of retaining seven coal units beyond 2030, citing gaps in their 2014 IRP analysis regarding capital expenditures and renewable energy cost impacts.

stated at the 4/13/2017 technical conference, is not well-supported. It is not at all clear that lengthy retention of the coal units was the most economic option arising from the 2014 IRP analysis. 5 5 A truer optimization, given the model...

AI summary The text critiques the 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for inadequately evaluating alternatives to retaining coal units, emphasizing the need for iterative analysis to compare resource plans. It highlights demand-side management (DSM) and alternative capacity options (e.g., wind, storage, demand response) as more economical solutions and recommends additional system studies.

ents must continue to be carefully examined; if Nova Scotia was to use a capacity credit of 20% 11 EPRI, Energy Storage Cost Summary for Utility Planning:Executive Summary, November 2016, page 17. Available at http://www.tdworld.com/sites/...

AI summary The text discusses the potential of wind resources with a 20% capacity credit, referencing an EPRI report on energy storage costs. It highlights the need to explore import capacity via the Maritime Link and assess firm purchase arrangements to address resource adequacy shortfalls. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of demand response and DSM programs in meeting resource adequacy needs.

t paths. Additional firm capacity could also be available across the Maritime Link to meet resource adequacy needs. 6 – Demand Response and DSM Resource Commitments through Energy Efficiency Programs NSPI’s need for capacity resources is p...

AI summary NSPI's capacity needs are based on peak load, which occurs infrequently during winter. Demand response mechanisms could reduce the need for 150-300 MW of capacity. The 2016 load duration curve illustrates peak load data, sourced from NSPI OASIS, with a calculation note referencing 600 MW (20% - 12%).

009 7885 8761 Hours per Year Load Greater than Indicated Value Source: NSPI OASIS, Hourly Load Data, 2016. 13 Based on 600 MW (20% - 12%). A-7 In the most recent load forecast, NSPI projects increasing peak load. In response to the Board’s...

AI summary NSPI's load forecast projects increasing peak demand, with Synapse recommending a review of peak load calculations due to historically flat historical peaks. The report highlights discrepancies between NSPI's method and energy projections. A suggested resolution emphasizes analyzing alternatives to coal plant retention, prioritizing least-cost options for reliable service.

e for NSPI customers. A portfolio of alternatives, rather than a single substitution of new capacity for coal plants, 15 is likely the lowest cost among competing alternatives to coal plant retention. We suggest a rigorous analytical appro...

AI summary The text advocates for a portfolio approach to replace coal plants, emphasizing the use of PLEXOS modeling for detailed capacity expansion analysis. It stresses the need to evaluate both demand-side (e.g., energy efficiency) and supply-side alternatives, considering cost trends and greenhouse gas reduction value. Rigorous analysis of demand-side options is highlighted as critical for accurate capacity planning.

NSPI’s projected requirements. Any analysis must first rigorously explore the cost and capability of demand side options, and accurately represent their attributes in any capacity expansion exercise. 14 NSPI response to NS UARB IR-2 (b-c)....

AI summary NSPI argues that its example of substituting a combustion turbine for a coal plant oversimplifies capacity expansion considerations, emphasizing variable factors like capital costs and locational economics. The analysis must rigorously evaluate demand-side options and include updated assumptions for supply-side alternatives, addressing system ramping and ancillary service needs under varying renewable penetration scenarios.

. As a general observation, the Industrial Group recommends one base set run with the current forecast of load and capital and then sensitivity runs with a high and a low scenario. ATL and BTL Loads The structure of the “Below-the-Line” (B...

AI summary The Industrial Group recommends analyzing load scenarios with and without Below-the-Line (BTL) loads, noting that serving BTL may be cheaper than serving Above-the-Line (ATL) due to NSPI's high-cost generation portfolio. Synapse highlights that demand response could reduce peak load needs but warns that increased interruptions from a smaller thermal fleet may push customers toward firm load.

t will likely increase the number of interruptions and the cost to customers (including lost production). At some point the costs of these more frequent interruptions will drive a switch to firm load. The Industrial Group recommends that S...

AI summary The Industrial Group highlights risks of increased interruptions and costs to customers, recommending Synapse explore interruptible load for demand response. They stress the need for stakeholder input on assumptions and modeling, and sufficient time to address feedback before finalizing the report.

by NSPI. A. Carbon costs from regulation a. The SBA is concerned about the assumption that high carbon costs occur with high fuel prices. B. Fuel Price Forecasts a. Why is the assumption made that there is CO2 emissions limits or costs est...

AI summary The SBA questions assumptions linking high carbon costs to fuel prices and challenges the exclusion of CO2 limits in fuel forecasts. Concerns are raised about fuel price correlations and load forecast uncertainty tied to DSM programs. The 5BA emphasizes the need for robust resource analysis, including DSM supply curves and demand response cost assessments.

ST Plexos module to assess customer cost and rate impact? Assumptions NS Power requests that clarity be provided for the following items relating to the assumptions to be used for the modelling:  How will Synapse distinguish critical inpu...

AI summary NS Power seeks clarity on assumptions for ST Plexos modelling, including critical vs. non-critical inputs, demand-side scenarios, storage technologies, capital sustaining assumptions, natural gas pricing, transmission configurations, carbon pricing rationale, and wind capacity value adjustments.

ts illustrated below. Due to time limitations, we will not define scenarios for all possible permutations of input assumptions. Illustrative Matrix: Example of key parameters and range of assumptions Alternative assumptions: Set 1 Set 2 Se...

AI summary The text presents a matrix of alternative assumptions for energy planning parameters, including load, capital requirements, gas prices, transmission, wind resource costs, demand response, storage, carbon costs, and balancing areas. Scenarios explore varying levels of energy efficiency, capital needs, and resource availability.

resource categories are carefully specified for use in Plexos; we anticipate that early provision (July) by NSPI of detailed Plexos input files in Plexos configuration will be of particular value: 4 • Existing coal, oil and gas thermal res...

AI summary The document outlines resource categories for Plexos modeling, including fossil fuels, renewables, storage, transmission, and demand-side management. NSPI will provide detailed input files, with data sources including NREL, US EIA, and others. The load forecast aligns with NSPI's latest projections.

g resource adequacy requirements), or they affect the capacity contributions available from existing and potentially new alternative capacity resources. The eight action items are characterized below: 1. Optimize the level of sustaining ca...

AI summary The document outlines eight action items addressing resource adequacy, including optimizing capital expenditures, studying wind penetration impacts, regional coordination, evaluating wind resources, monitoring market opportunities, assessing demand response, securing DSM commitments, and evaluating Mersey Development. These steps aim to ensure system reliability and capacity contributions.

opportunities. 7. Obtain DSM resource commitments consistent with the IRP analysis. 8. Evaluate options for Mersey Development, and the potential to add 30 MW of capacity to the system. In addition to these IRP action items, continuing red...

AI summary The document outlines IRP action items, including DSM resource commitments and evaluating Mersey Development's 30 MW capacity. It criticizes NSPI for not rigorously analyzing the economic optimality of retaining seven coal units through 2030, citing the 2014 IRP's lack of thorough examination. Renewable energy cost reductions and traditional gas-fired resources are noted as factors affecting coal unit retention economics.

son across plan results, in this case because the resulting surplus capacity across the plans varied significantly. Among the best-performing candidate resource plans were those with higher levels of A-9 Optimizing sustaining capital expen...

AI summary The text discusses optimizing sustaining capital expenditures by evaluating alternative capacity sources, including energy efficiency, wind resources, and demand response. It emphasizes the need to assess costs of retaining coal plant capacity versus alternatives like storage, hydro, gas, and demand-side management programs.

through programmatic efforts to achieve peak demand reduction through demand response options beyond those currently obtained via interruptible industrial load. 2 – Conduct Additional System Studies NSPI has not yet conducted any updates t...

AI summary NSPI must conduct additional studies on wind penetration and transmission support, including dynamic reactive supply and storage. The Board questions NSPI's claim that storage is not cost-competitive. NSPI acknowledges reduced steam unit needs post-2020 but requires further analysis of coal plant retirement scenarios.

question from the Board as part of the 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan (M07745), NSPI indicated that storage options “are not cost competitive” compared to traditional solutions.10 However, this peak demand reduction through DSM, whic...

AI summary NSPI's 2017 Capital Expenditure Plan (M07745) stated energy storage was not cost-competitive. However, demand-side management (DSM) reduced peak demand, creating surplus capacity. An iterative modeling approach could have retired coal units, lowering costs. The GE 2013 wind integration study and Lazard's 2016 storage analysis are referenced, alongside synthetic inertia as a potential grid stability solution.

f capacity and Quebec’s use of 30%.13 The contribution of wind resources to capacity 11 Ibid. 12 EPRI, Energy Storage Cost Summary for Utility Planning:Executive Summary, November 2016, page 17. Available at http://www.tdworld.com/sites/td...

AI summary The text examines wind capacity credits, import capacity via the Maritime Link and New Brunswick, and the role of demand response/DSM programs in meeting resource adequacy needs. It highlights potential increases in resource adequacy from wind credits and the need to explore import capacity and DSM commitments.

t paths. Additional firm capacity could also be available across the Maritime Link to meet resource adequacy needs. 6 – Demand Response and DSM Resource Commitments through Energy Efficiency Programs NSPI’s need for capacity resources is p...

AI summary NSPI's capacity needs are tied to peak load, which occurs infrequently during winter. Demand response mechanisms could reduce the need for 150–300 MW of capacity. The 2016 load duration curve illustrates that peak loads are rare, with most hours below 2,500 MW. A calculation example shows capacity needs based on 600 MW and efficiency differences.

009 7885 8761 Hours per Year Load Greater than Indicated Value Source: NSPI OASIS, Hourly Load Data, 2016. 14 Based on 600 MW (20% - 12%). A-9 In the most recent load forecast, NSPI projects increasing peak load. In response to the Board’s...

AI summary NSPI discusses load forecasting methods, citing Synapse's report that questions the accuracy of peak load projections. The report recommends refining peak load calculations due to flat historical trends. The text emphasizes the need for a portfolio of alternatives to coal plant retention, balancing renewable integration with reliability and cost considerations.

ce for NSPI customers. A portfolio of alternatives, rather than a single substitution of new capacity for coal plants,16 is likely the lowest cost among competing alternatives to coal plant retention. We suggest a rigorous analytical appro...

AI summary The text advocates for a portfolio of alternatives to coal plant retention, emphasizing comprehensive analysis using tools like PLEXOS. It stresses evaluating both demand-side (energy efficiency, demand response) and supply-side options, considering cost trends and greenhouse gas reduction value. A rigorous approach is needed to explore demand-side capabilities and their impact on capacity needs.

NSPI’s projected requirements. Any analysis must first rigorously explore the cost and capability of demand side options, and accurately represent their attributes in any capacity expansion exercise. 15 NSPI response to NS UARB IR-2 (b-c)....

AI summary NSPI argues that demand-side options must be rigorously evaluated for cost and capability in capacity expansion. The Board critiques NSPI's example of substituting a combustion turbine for a coal plant as oversimplified, noting variable assumptions and unaddressed locational factors. Supply-side analysis must include updated cost/performance data and address ramping/ancillary service needs from wind and storage integration.

James R. Gogan Direct Dial: (902) 563-5920 E-Mail: [email protected] August 10, 2017 File No. 41736-52 Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 3rd Floor, 1601 Lower Water Street Halifax, NS B3J 3P6 Attention: Doreen Friis, Regulatory Aff...

AI summary EfficiencyOne requests to be added as a late intervenor in M08059, arguing that Synapse's modeling of demand-side-management (DSM) activities impacts its interests as the exclusive franchise holder. The utility seeks to comment on DSM-related aspects of the proceeding.

s Appendix B for the Board’s reference. NS Power General Comments NS Power’s comments to the Board are consistent with those provided by the Company to Synapse in its letter dated April 18, 2018. The objective of the Generation Utilization...

AI summary NS Power aligns with Synapse's 2018 study on thermal fleet retention through 2030, noting cost-effectiveness under specific conditions. The study identifies scenarios where thermal units may retire early if wind generation, DSM, and sustaining capital costs increase. Retention is indicated until 2030 in Scenario 1, with additional retirements in Scenarios 4 and 16.

1. Confirm costs and achievable potential NS Power supports this recommendation. for incremental energy efficiency. As seen, NS Power believes that a new DSM energy efficiency displaces higher cost potential study should be completed to en...

AI summary NS Power supports recommendations to evaluate energy efficiency displacement of costly energy sources, develop cost curves for demand response, assess bulk battery storage economics, and monitor thermal fleet capital costs. The IRP must incorporate these analyses through transparent UARB processes.

respecting these issues. Conclusion The Synapse Report confirms that it is cost-effective to customers to retain NS Power’s thermal fleet through 2030, and possibly beyond. As stated above, NS Power’s comments are not to be taken as an end...

AI summary The Synapse Report concludes retaining NS Power’s thermal fleet through 2030 is cost-effective. NS Power acknowledges the report addresses the Board’s original questions but disputes its assumptions and modeling. They oppose a hearing on the report, advocating instead for proceeding to the next IRP and implementing the report’s nine recommendations.

bon reduction requirements, federal equivalency and the operation of the Maritime Link. With regard to the study framework proposed by Synapse, the Company suggests consideration of the following: • Whether the period of study needs to be...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NSP) questions Synapse's proposed 25-year study framework, raising concerns about resource availability (e.g., NB transmission, battery storage), uncertainty in federal/provincial regulations, and the need for clarity on DSM program selection criteria. NSP also notes the Board's planned 2018 DSM hearing and lack of reference plan criteria.

t Director, Regulatory Affairs Page 4 of 9 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) REDACTED - Appendix A NSPI to Synapse GU&O Final Report Page 5 of 9 Appendix A Figure 1: Comments on Analysis Plan & Assumptions Analysis Plan 1. Select...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSP) requests clarification on selection criteria for reference plans and suggests reducing scenario modeling complexity by integrating DSM, Demand Response, and transmission options as flexible resource inputs in the Long Term module, enabling optimized in-service year calculations.

. An additional benefit of this approach is that it will also allow the model to optimize the in-service year of new DSM and transmission resources. ii) The “WindCapCredit” scenarios may be redundant, as they effectively represent the capa...

AI summary The text discusses optimizing DSM and transmission resource in-service years, questions the redundancy of WindCapCredit scenarios due to fixed wind capacity contributions, and notes the need to run the Short Term (ST) module annually for production cost modeling in retirement path scenarios.

will be interpolated between years. Page 5 of 9 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) REDACTED - Appendix A NSPI to Synapse GU&O Final Report Page 6 of 9 iii) NS Power notes that the detailed production cost modelling may exhibit res...

AI summary NS Power notes that detailed production cost modeling may show different plan rankings than LT optimization due to granular parameters. DSM assumptions significantly affect modeling, particularly when DSM modifies load, impacting capacity investment and NPV comparisons. The 'High DSM Case' lacks specific cost details, complicating plan comparisons.

des nearly 900 MW of peak reduction (approximately the capacity of 6 coal units), but provides no specific details on the cost or deliverability of this capacity. NS Power submits that it is critical to develop and vet the assumed costs an...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NSP) emphasizes the need for detailed cost and deliverability data for proposed Demand Side Management (DSM) programs before evaluating resource portfolios. It also recommends including DSM and Demand Response in the LT Module and adjusting the Medium DSM case by excluding PHP Mill load from energy savings calculations.

forecasted PHP load is based on historical requirements of the mill and would not be included in any correlating demand reduction associated with this DSM amount. iv) NS Power notes there is an inconsistency with the cumulative peak DSM to...

AI summary NSP highlights inconsistencies in DSM plan totals, advocates for load forecasts considering electrification, and provides updated fuel price data. It emphasizes the need for accurate resource cost assumptions and updated information for modeling.

the extent to which it is cost‐effective to ratepayers to retain NSPI’s thermal (steam) fleet through, and possibly beyond, 2030. At page two of the Draft Report the following is provided: Using reference scenario load levels from NSPI’s 2...

AI summary The analysis concludes that retaining NSPI’s coal fleet through 2030 is the most cost-effective option for ratepayers, based on Synapse’s modeling using 2017 load forecasts, wind capacity scenarios, and DSM components. Retention is indicated even with increased wind generation and higher sustaining capital costs for thermal sources.

lan (M08350): Page 3 of 9 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) April 18, 2018 Appendix B - NSPI Response to Synapse GU&O Technical Conference Page 4 of 9 D. Friis Both the CA and the SBA comment in their respective Closing Submissio...

AI summary The CA and SBA argue for an updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to inform capital expenditures and DSM. NS Power agrees on the value of an IRP but defers action until after the Generation Utilization and Optimization proceeding (M08059) concludes, citing pending clarity on federal emissions rules and provincial cap-and-trade requirements.

h 28, 2018, page 1‐2. Page 4 of 9 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) April 18, 2018 Appendix B - NSPI Response to Synapse GU&O Technical Conference Page 5 of 9 D. Friis remain so, for the next decade and beyond. The “planning wind...

AI summary NSPI emphasizes the need for updated resource planning assumptions for the next IRP, including renewable/non-renewable generation costs, battery technologies, and DSM potential studies. It challenges Synapse's recommendation to retire a second unit, noting minimal NPV impact from forced retirements.

than one percent when compared to Scenario 1 of the analysis. This difference is within a reasonable range of model uncertainty relative to the no retirement plan, rather than cause for conclusion. Demand‐Side Management Synapse’s conclusi...

AI summary NS Power and Synapse discuss DSM study needs and natural gas supply challenges. NS Power advocates for a comprehensive DSM Potential Study before the next IRP, while Synapse highlights New England's greenhouse gas targets impacting winter gas availability and costs in the Maritimes.

ol (AGC), and inertial response capability (which NS Power notes would add to the capital cost of the resources). Synapse should ensure this requirement is explicitly recognized in its Final Report. As well, additional wind on the system w...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSP) requests Synapse to address inertial response costs, declining wind capacity value with increased penetration, and consider demand response in modeling for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). Stakeholders are to review additional analyses before the Final Report.

ce indicated that this should be a focus of Synapse’s additional proposed runs. Synapse advised that it had not done this yet, but that this was something that could be considered. As Synapse noted during the Technical Conference, energy p...

AI summary The document discusses Synapse's proposed additional modelling runs focusing on demand-reduction DSM programming and electrification load assumptions. NS Power agrees with the Province to prioritize DSM over energy-targeted approaches and supports modelling electrification scenarios. E1 updates its DSM study for post-lighting world opportunities, which Synapse will incorporate into its analysis.

pril 9, 2018, page 2. Page 8 of 9 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) April 18, 2018 Appendix B - NSPI Response to Synapse GU&O Technical Conference Page 9 of 9 D. Friis fleet through 2030, and possibly beyond. A clear statement co...

AI summary NSPI emphasizes the need for the Final Report to address long-term DSM modeling, gas-fired generation potential, and implications of additional wind for resource planning. The long-term viability of thermal fleet investments depends on the Province's carbon regime, with a comprehensive IRP expected in 2019 once clarity on the regime is achieved.

1 June 21, 2018 VIA EMAIL 28323 Ms. Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor Halifax, NS B3J 3S3 Dear Ms. Friis: Re: M08059 – Generation Utilization and Optimizat...

AI summary The Consumer Advocate highlights two key issues: (1) the significant benefits of aggressive DSM efforts, urging EfficiencyOne to maximize them, and (2) the need to reassess NSPI’s low valuation of wind capacity to improve planning accuracy. Both require ongoing monitoring and stakeholder input.

vide guidance on other energy and capacity resources. OBJECTIVE OF THE REPORT It is important to keep in perspective that the objective of the Report by Synapse in this matter was stated as follows: The purpose of the Generation Optimizati...

AI summary The Synapse report evaluated the cost-effectiveness of retaining NSPI's thermal fleet through 2030, concluding it was beneficial for ratepayers. NSPI supported Synapse's recommendations but emphasized the need for a new DSM study and detailed battery storage analysis for the next IRP.

James R. Gogan Direct Dial: (902) 563-5920 E-Mail: [email protected] File Ref: 41736-52 June 21, 2018 Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 3rd Floor, 1601 Lower Water Street Halifax, NS B3J 3P6 Attention: Doreen Friis, Regulatory Affa...

AI summary EfficiencyOne comments on Synapse's Final Report regarding the cost-effectiveness of demand-side management (DSM) in Nova Scotia's Generation Utilization and Optimization proceeding. The analysis shows that moderate DSM levels remain cost-effective despite higher initial costs, supported by updated unit cost data from a 2013 DSM Potential Study revision.

tential Study. This update to the 2013 Potential Study considered a portfolio with markedly less energy and capacity savings from lighting-based measures, and as such is indicative of future increased 1 M08059, N-1, Final Report – Economic...

AI summary EfficiencyOne highlights the cost-effectiveness of DSM measures like building retrofits despite higher upfront costs, noting $0.41B incremental DSM costs in Scenario 2 are offset by $0.49B fuel savings and additional $0.61B in operational savings. Synapse recommends confirming DSM potential before the next IRP to reflect energy efficiency's role in displacing costly energy sources.

ficiency. As seen, energy efficiency displaces higher cost energy sources in the province (gas, oil, imports) and the IRP must fully reflect this resource option. 2. Determine costs and achievable potential for peak‐load reducing demand re...

AI summary EfficiencyOne agrees with Synapse's recommendations to conduct a DSM Potential Study before the next IRP, estimating a 6-8 month timeline. They also plan demand reduction pilots pending UARB approval, aligning with Synapse's second recommendation for better cost estimates. The IRP must account for energy efficiency displacing higher-cost energy sources.

Memorandum TO: M08059 GENERATION UTILIZATION AND OPTIMIZATION STAKEHOLDERS FROM: BOB FAGAN – SYNAPSE ENERGY ECONOMICS DATE: JULY 9, 2018 RE: SYNAPSE REPLY SUBMISSION - RESPONSE TO STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ON FINAL REPORT This memo responds to...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics responds to stakeholder comments on NS Power's thermal generation utilization report, with NS Power, the Industrial Group, SBA, and PHP opposing further hearings. EfficiencyOne plans a DSM study before the next IRP, while the Consumer Advocate recommends a separate proceeding to address wind capacity valuation.

ose assumptions generally do not represent the lowest-cost planning path. Most importantly, the results show that NS Power should focus on identifying the best candidate for retirement after Lingan 2. Our recommendation to not conduct hear...

AI summary The analysis suggests that current assumptions may not reflect the lowest-cost planning path, emphasizing the need for NS Power to identify the next coal unit for retirement post-Lingan 2. The recommendation against hearings hinges on NS Power's support for the Final Report's recommendations, which will shape the next Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). Key factors like wind installations, demand response, and battery costs were not fully tested but should be considered in future planning.

es in the province (gas, oil, imports) and the IRP must fully reflect this resource option. [Note that EfficiencyOne has been directed to file a DSM Potential Study by July 31,2019.] 2. Determine costs and achievable potential for peak-loa...

AI summary The text outlines requirements for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to include fossil fuel and import resources, mandates a DSM Potential Study by EfficiencyOne, and emphasizes analyzing demand response costs, battery storage economics, and sustaining capital costs for thermal generation. The IRP must reflect diverse resource options and quantify costs for peak-load reduction and energy storage.

Addendum to Final Report - M08059 Generation Utilization and Optimization - DSM Avoided Costs Memorandum TO: M08059 GENERATION UTILIZATION AND OPTIMIZATION STAKEHOLDERS FROM: BOB FAGAN – SYNAPSE ENERGY ECONOMICS DATE: OCTOBER 19, 2018 RE:...

AI summary This memo calculates avoided energy and capacity costs from DSM resources in Scenario 2 of the Generation Utilization and Optimization Study. It uses a differential revenue requirements approach, analyzing fixed (capacity-related) and variable (energy-related) costs between Scenario 1 (reference) and Scenario 2 (medium DSM) across 2018–2042. Results show per-MWh and per-kW avoided costs for each study year.

ction/build costs, and sustaining capital costs. Variable (or energy related) cost components include fuel, variable O&M, renewable energy provision, interchange, and startup/shutdown elements. 1 Final Report, “Nova Scotia Power Inc. Therm...

AI summary The text outlines a method for calculating avoided capacity and energy costs under different DSM scenarios, considering fixed and variable costs, emissions constraints, and transmission/distribution infrastructure impacts. It references a 2018 report (M08059) analyzing fossil-fueled thermal fleet retention and optimization.

rastructure under the medium DSM scenario. We also included a third, “Total – energy basis” computation, that provides a single stream of avoided (energy + capacity) costs, on a per MWh basis. The results reflect the build and dispatch pat...

AI summary The text analyzes avoided energy and capacity costs under the Medium DSM scenario, comparing it to the reference scenario. It highlights the impact of the Maritime Link and a new combined cycle resource on cost trends, noting that DSM displaces more expensive energy sources rather than coal. The study discusses these dynamics in the context of revenue requirements.

3 $16,488 $39,168 $39,812 $51,786 $41,624 $46,311 $57,502 $65,666 $68,575 $84,542 $64,061 $85,919 $82,817 $100,882 $105,754 $124,228 $133,502 $136,741 11,098.1 11,098.3 11,060.6 11,043.3 10,990.6 11,155.7 11,171.1 11,046.7 11,044.2 11,068....

AI summary The text presents comparative data between two energy scenarios (Sc 1 and Sc 2) showing energy consumption in GWh, energy saved by Sc 2 DSM relative to Sc 1, and avoided energy costs per MWh saved. The data highlights DSM's impact on energy reduction and cost savings over time.

9 $43.02 $85.06 $75.39 $89.05 $64.59 $66.41 $76.90 $81.64 $80.17 $91.55 $65.70 $84.47 $77.30 $89.61 $90.14 $99.94 $103.38 $102.72 Fixed Cost Components FOM, SusCap, New build 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030...

AI summary The text presents financial data comparing two capacity cost scenarios (Sc 1 and Sc 2) for Nova Scotia Power Inc. over 2018–2042, including fixed costs, avoided capacity costs, and peak load metrics. Scenario 2 incorporates MedDSM costs, showing avoided capacity costs relative to Scenario 1, with significant differences in later years.