N-8Electrification Strategy Report
21 passages
ashington-Final-Report.pdf](https://www.commerce.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Financial-Impact-of-Fuel-Conversion-on-Consumer-Owned-Utilities-and-Customers-in-Washington-Final-Report.pdf) (pg. 3) 8 Massachusetts D.P.U. 20-80, The Role...
AI summary The analysis compares the net present value of adopting heat pump technologies, noting that switching from fuel oil to heat pumps yields homeowner benefits, while electric resistance upgrades may impose net ratepayer costs. Key Finding 4 emphasizes the importance of utility actions in managing transportation loads to minimize costs and maximize ratepayer benefits.
- In this instance, E3 does not believe that submetering or installing a second meter for EVs is necessary to support EV adoption in the near-term. These options have generally been costly, and have faced implementation challenges, includi...
AI summary E3 suggests that submetering for EVs is not necessary in the near-term due to cost and implementation challenges. Instead, the focus should be on whole-home rate designs. Nova Scotia Power is piloting opt-in dynamic pricing programs, and AMI is essential for managing loads and enabling TOU rates.
Long-Term Strategy and Planning Recommendation 5. Fully incorporate electrification strategy findings, including peak impacts and mitigation strategies, into utility planning models. - Model impacts on resource needs and costs : Reliably s...
AI summary The recommendation emphasizes the need for Nova Scotia Power to fully integrate electrification strategy findings into its planning models, considering impacts on resource needs, reliability, and affordability. It highlights the importance of evaluating peak mitigation strategies, reliability benefits from managed loads, and affordability implications of electrification.
Identify underserved communities and prioritize investments to ensure equitable access: Without intentional program design, electrification at scale is expected to pose challenges that disproportionately impact lower-income and disadvantag...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of identifying underserved communities to ensure equitable access to electrification benefits. It highlights challenges faced by lower-income and disadvantaged communities, such as limited access to charging infrastructure and the need for infrastructure upgrades in areas served by radial transmission lines. It emphasizes the need for Nova Scotia Power and E1 to collaborate with governments to address these issues and prioritize investments that promote equity.
n/contractors/value-of-distributed-energy-resources) Context: Net Zero and the Role of Electrification The Economics of Electrification in Nova Scotia: The Economics of Electrification in Nova Scotia independent system operators (ISOs) or...
AI summary The text discusses the role of utilities in enabling vehicle-to-grid (V2G) programs, including challenges such as uncertainty around EV availability and customer enrollment. It highlights the use of cost-benefit analysis in regulatory approvals and the expansion of time-varying rates to support electrification and distributed energy resources.
2.3.3 Example Utility Actions In many jurisdictions with Net Zero targets, utilities have adopted programs, incentives, and customer education programs to support building electrification. It is increasingly common practice for utilities a...
AI summary Utilities in jurisdictions with Net Zero targets are implementing programs to support building electrification, including heat pump rebates, all-electric construction, retrofits, and smart thermostats. Some use ratepayer funds, while others leverage provincial budgets, local taxes, and carbon fees. Examples include Sacramento Municipal Utility District and utilities like BC Hydro and Hydro-Quebec.
3.2.1 Overview of E3's EV Load Shaping Tool To calculate electricity bills and supply costs for EV charging, E3 developed a forecast of potential EV charging loads consistent with achieving Nova Scotia's policy goals. Charging loads depend...
AI summary E3 developed an EV Load Shaping Tool to forecast EV charging loads based on Nova Scotia's policy goals. The tool models driving and charging behavior using a bottom-up approach, considering factors like vehicle type, charging access, and driving patterns. It distinguishes between unmanaged, managed, and VGI charging scenarios to calculate electricity bills and supply costs.
3.2.3 Transportation Scenarios E3 modeled four scenarios for EV load shapes based on the access to rates and level of EV charge management, in order to evaluate potential impacts on load and system peak. 51 All scenarios assume adoption of...
AI summary E3 modeled four scenarios for EV load shapes based on access to rates and charge management, evaluating impacts on load and system peak. Scenarios include unmanaged charging, blended, managed with TOU, and managed with VGI aggregation, considering TOU responsiveness and load management techniques.
3.3.3 Building Scenarios In all scenarios modeled, E3 assumes that 100% of sales of heating equipment are heat pumps by 2030 resulting in nearly all residential customers and 96% of commercial customers having heat pumps by 2050. Most scen...
AI summary E3 models various scenarios for heat pump adoption in Nova Scotia by 2030 and 2050, including Current Trends, No Electric Resistance Phaseout, Best-in-Class, and Current Trends Hybrid. These scenarios consider different heat pump technologies, adoption rates, and the impact of demand-side management (DSM) on system performance.
While annual load growth is expected to be modest from building electrification, peak load impacts could potentially be large. Under the Current Trends Pre-DSM scenario, buildings are expected to add 673 GWh of load in a 1-in-2 weather yea...
AI summary The text discusses the potential impacts of building electrification on load growth and peak demand in Nova Scotia under different scenarios. It highlights that while annual load growth is expected to be modest, peak load impacts could be significant, especially under the Current Trends Pre-DSM scenario. The adoption of heat pumps and backup fuel systems can influence these impacts.
3.4 Combined Electrification Load Impacts Considering both transportation and buildings, electrification will generate significant electric load and peak impacts. Transportation loads are forecasted to make up a larger portion of annual lo...
AI summary Electrification in Nova Scotia, considering both transportation and buildings, is expected to significantly increase electric load and peak demand. Transportation is projected to contribute more to annual load, while buildings are expected to disproportionately impact peak load, especially during cold winter days.
4.2 Benefit-Cost Analysis Model E3's Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) Model calculates the costs and benefits associated with transportation and building electrification. Costs and benefits in the E3 BCA Model are organized by perspective, usin...
AI summary E3's Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) Model evaluates the costs and benefits of transportation and building electrification from three perspectives: Participant Cost Test (PCT), Societal Cost Test (SCT), and Ratepayer Impact Measure (RIM). Each perspective uses a different discount rate to calculate net present value (NPV) and assess the impact of electrification on individuals, society, and non-participating ratepayers.
Figure 5-2. Net present value of costs and benefits of adopting light-duty vehicle in 2022, assuming managed charging with load management using vehicle-grid integration Notes: The benefit estimates vary across scenarios based on rates, fu...
AI summary The analysis shows that transportation electrification investments, such as light-duty vehicles, yield net benefits for drivers, ratepayers, and Nova Scotia. However, building electrification requires policy support to encourage the adoption of efficient equipment and manage peak load impacts.
- Drive customer transition: A transition to more dynamic rates requires significant customer outreach and education and should be implemented gradually to ensure customers can adjust their behavior and avoid abrupt bill changes. Pilot pro...
AI summary The text discusses the need for gradual customer transition to dynamic rates through pilot programs and opt-in rate designs, emphasizing the importance of customer education and outreach. It highlights Nova Scotia Power's efforts with TVP and CPP pilots, and the role of AMI in enabling load management and TOU rates, while noting the need for more dynamic strategies as DER adoption increases.
Long-Term Strategy and Planning Recommendation 5. Fully incorporate electrification strategy findings, including peak impacts and mitigation strategies, into utility planning models. - Model impacts on resource needs and costs : Reliably s...
AI summary The recommendation emphasizes the need to fully incorporate electrification strategy findings into utility planning models, focusing on resource needs, reliability impacts, and affordability. It highlights the importance of modeling peak load impacts, evaluating reliability benefits of managed loads, and assessing the equity and affordability implications of electrification.
o the mandate of Nova Scotia's electricity efficiency and conservation franchise holder. underserved communities and investments needed to ensure equitable access to electrified mobility and heating. - Third Party EVSE Providers: Work to c...
AI summary The text discusses the need for partnerships and customer engagement in electrification efforts, emphasizing collaboration with third-party EVSE providers, equipment manufacturers, transit operators, and consumer advocates. It also highlights the importance of customer education and training for successful adoption of electrification technologies, particularly in underserved communities.
7.3 Shell Improvement E3 modeled building electrification scenarios with "DSM" and "Pre-DSM." In scenarios with DSM, buildings adopting heat pumps also receive a building shell improvement. E3 used the building simulation software EnergyPl...
AI summary E3 modeled building electrification scenarios with 'DSM' and 'Pre-DSM,' where DSM scenarios include building shell improvements. EnergyPlus simulations showed that retrofitting existing buildings with improved insulation leads to reduced annual service demand, though R-values were slightly lower than new construction due to retrofit limitations.
Sector % Reduction in Annual Service Demand Residential 23% Commercial 14% Table 7-2. EnergyPlus simulations building details Sector Building Type Wall Assembly R-Value (ft2 h R/Btu) Roof Assembly R-Value (ft2 h R/Btu) Glazing Assembly U-V...
AI summary The text presents a table showing the percentage reduction in annual service demand for residential and commercial sectors, as well as building details from EnergyPlus simulations. The data highlights improvements in insulation and energy efficiency under DSM initiatives.
As discussed in Section 3, electrification at scale could potentially have large impacts on system peak loads. Many studies have demonstrated that coupling energy efficiency investments such as weatherization and building shell improvement...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of electrification and energy efficiency measures on system peak loads. It highlights that combining electrification with energy efficiency investments, such as building shell improvements, is critical for cost-effective decarbonization. E3 modeled scenarios showing significant reductions in heating demand for residential and commercial buildings through DSM strategies.
Current Trends All-Electric Best-in-Class Pre-DSM With DSM Pre-DSM With DSM Today's gas and oil heating buildings Adopt ASHP Adopt ASHP Today's electric resistance buildings Adopt ASHP Adopt ASHP Heat pump performance ASHPs are 30% base; 4...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of adopting air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) and building shell improvements on load growth in electrification scenarios. In the Current Trends scenario with DSM, shell measures reduce incremental load growth by 12% in 2050. In the Best-in-Class scenario with DSM, efficiency savings from shell improvements could result in negative incremental load growth.
9.1.5 Marginal Electricity Supply Costs for EV Charging and Buildings Electricity supply costs represent the costs that utilities must pay to provide the electricity used for EV charging. There are four components that make up electricity...
AI summary The text discusses the four components of electricity supply costs—energy, capacity, distribution, and transmission—specifically for EV charging and buildings. It outlines how energy costs are based on hourly short-run marginal costs, while capacity, distribution, and transmission costs are derived from Nova Scotia Power and allocated using the PCAF method, which targets the highest net load hours for cost allocation.
91371Submission - E1
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, 2023, Page 6. M11307, Bates White Economic Consulting's Comments on Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s Evergreen IRP Action Plan & Roadmap Update, Filed September 8, 2023, Page 7. M11307, Bates White Economic Consulting's Comments on Nova Scotia P...
AI summary E1 recommends considering reduced Plan Flexibility and risk in the Bi-Directional Atlantic Loop scenario. NS Power highlights Hybrid Peak scenarios' cost savings over base load scenarios but notes missing incentive costs. E1 argues these savings stem from excluded Hybrid Peak Mitigation costs and identifies unaccounted customer expenses (e.g., heating system maintenance, fuel costs) in IRP evaluations.
3.2 Base Plus DSM Modeling - The IRP scenarios modeled the inclusion of both Base and Modified Mid DSM buildouts but only - included one Base Plus DSM scenario, namely CE1-E1-R1 BPDSM. The absence of an evaluation of - Base Plus DSM within...
AI summary The IRP scenarios evaluated Base and Modified Mid DSM buildouts but omitted comprehensive Base Plus DSM analysis. This limits stakeholder understanding of DSM performance between Base and Modified Mid levels, potentially leading to suboptimal economic outcomes. E1 previously requested inclusion of Base Plus DSM in core scenarios, which was not fulfilled.
- E1 recommends that the NPVRR results be interpreted with caution, considering the complexities - of the scenarios and the unknowns regarding the performance of different DSM levels.
AI summary E1 recommends caution in interpreting NPVRR results due to the complexities of scenarios and unknowns regarding the performance of different Demand Side Management (DSM) levels.
- 3.3 Risk - The IRP scenarios include varying levels of risk depending on factors such as resource mix and - selection, in-service dates, retirement dates, and operating reserves. - Notable risks within the 2022 IRP include: - Atlantic Lo...
AI summary The 2022 IRP identifies risks related to resource mix, fuel costs, and peak mitigation effectiveness. Energy efficiency is highlighted as a low-risk, scalable resource, while emerging technologies and legislative changes pose uncertainties. E1 recommends a risk matrix to evaluate technical, legislative, and stakeholder risks in each scenario.
3.4 DSM Beyond Energy Efficiency The 2022 Evergreen IRP only considered energy efficiency and demand response as DSM resources. "Base DSM" only considered energy efficiency. To the extent other DSM (e.g., distributed energy resources) acti...
AI summary The 2022 Evergreen IRP limited DSM to energy efficiency and demand response. Other DSM activities (e.g., distributed energy resources) were excluded from modeled savings and expenditures. The text recommends treating these future DSM initiatives as distinct from the 2022 IRP's DSM outcomes.
4. AVOIDED COSTS Avoided costs, in the context of the IRP, refer to the costs that a utility or system operator can avoid or mitigate by implementing specific resource options or DSM measures. These costs are fundamental considerations whe...
AI summary E1 requests updated avoided costs from NS Power for DSM resources (energy efficiency, solar PV, electrification) to inform the 2026-2030 DSM Plan. Stakeholder engagement with DSMAG is emphasized, with a timeline for modeling starting Q1 2024. E1 also seeks methodology for valuing demand response avoided costs and considers DER/electrification impacts on transmission/distribution.
4.1 High Distributed Energy Resources (HDER) Scenario - E1 noted that the HDER scenarios, which include significant investment in rooftop solar PV systems, - showed favorable utility NPVRR results. Notably, CE1-E1-R2 HDER stood out with th...
AI summary E1 highlights favorable utility NPVRR results in HDER scenarios, emphasizing customer-sited solar PV's value. NS Power's $3/W solar cost assumption is challenged by E1's lower $2.5/W experience. E1 argues against dismissing HDER scenarios based solely on customer costs, citing unaccounted electrification and hybrid mitigation costs, and recommends further analysis of DERs' full costs/benefits.
6. ACTION PLAN AND ROADMAP
AI summary The document outlines the action plan and roadmap for implementing the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), focusing on Demand Side Management (DSM) initiatives and regulatory processes under the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (NSUARB). Key stakeholders include EfficiencyOne (E1), Nova Scotia Power (NS Power), and the DSM Advisory Group (DSMAG).
6.1 Review of Action Plan and Roadmap Items 11 E1 has reviewed the action plan / roadmap sections of the document provided. In addition to the 12 general comments included in the document, E1 has the following additional and specific comme...
AI summary E1 has reviewed the action plan and roadmap sections of a document, adding specific comments to the 12 general ones provided. The review focuses on evaluating the proposed steps and timelines for implementation.
into the estimation of avoided costs of T&D. E1 expects these avoided costs to grow - with increased level of system build-out anticipated as part of increased load growth in coming - years. - Action Plan Item 4b: Hybrid Peak Mitigation Sc...
AI summary NS Power and E1 collaborate on initiatives including hybrid peak mitigation, wind integration studies, renewable cost tracking, and electrification forecasts. E1 emphasizes non-technical factors, demand response, and updating load forecasts. Both parties agree on monitoring solar, storage costs, and IRP evolution.
7. CONCLUSION - E1 appreciates the opportunity to provide comments on, and recommendations related to NS - Power's updated Action Plan and Roadmap and appreciates the opportunity to participate - throughout the 2022 Evergreen IRP Process....
AI summary E1 provides seven recommendations to NS Power regarding the 2022 Evergreen IRP Process, emphasizing criteria evaluation, scenario risk analysis, hybrid peak solution clarity, DSM study limitations, NPVRR interpretation, and risk matrix development for IRP scenarios.