Topic:"Renewable Energy" in M08059

ovision Constraints ........................................... 17 Emission Constraints ............................................................................................................... 17 Available Resource New Build Costs ....

AI summary The document outlines sections of a modeling analysis covering emission constraints, resource costs, wind capacity credits, transmission infrastructure, coal plant retirement timelines, and sensitivity analyses. It references a final report by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. on thermal generation utilization and optimization for Nova Scotia Power.

Plant Utilization – Capacity Factors – Coal and Tufts Cove Units ............................................ 41 Energy by Fuel Type..............................................................................................................

AI summary The document discusses plant utilization, capacity factors for coal and Tufts Cove units, energy by fuel type, emissions, and sensitivities (e.g., battery costs, gas prices). It also outlines updates since a technical conference, demand-side options, NB transmission, and additional wind resources in the discussion and recommendations section.

e Province’s declining power sector emissions schedule and underlying power system technical constraints (primarily, transmission and operating reserves criteria). Modeling Plan and Input Assumptions Synapse developed a modeling plan and a...

AI summary Synapse developed a modeling plan for NSPI’s thermal resource utilization, considering parameters like peak load, wind capacity credit, transmission expansion, and coal plant retirements. The analysis evaluates technical and economic factors impacting thermal fleet optimization and resource transformation scenarios.

ization and Optimization M08059 1 Final Report Major Findings The results of our analyses indicate the following specific major findings:  The net present value of wholesale1 system revenue requirements (NPVRR, 2018‐2042 period) across th...

AI summary The analysis shows that scenarios with moderate demand-side management (DSM) and wind capacity credits yield the lowest net present value of revenue requirements (NPVRR), outperforming reference scenarios. Wind and energy efficiency are highlighted as cost-effective alternatives to fossil fuels and imports, with medium DSM levels achieving 2% annual energy efficiency gains. Scenarios with 20% wind capacity credits and additional wind generation show the greatest cost reductions.

This result illustrates the value of wind and energy efficiency resources in comparison to gas, oil, and import energy, which in general are otherwise the marginal energy sources.  All scenarios utilizing a load forecast that reflects med...

AI summary The text compares wind and energy efficiency resources to fossil fuels and imports, showing that higher demand-side management (DSM) and wind capacity accelerate coal unit retirements (as early as 2024) and reduce planning reserve requirements by 157 MW by 2029. Scenario 1, based on 2017 forecasts, retains thermal fleet capacity through 2030, but other scenarios demonstrate lower NPVRR costs.

Plexos selects more wind than this in all scenarios). However, as noted, all other scenarios demonstrate lower NPVRR costs than this reference case, illustrating the critical 1 In this context, “wholesale” implies supply and energy‐efficie...

AI summary The analysis highlights that alternative resources like energy efficiency and wind generation can reduce NPVRR costs and influence coal unit retirement timelines. It emphasizes the importance of considering peak load reduction strategies over reliance on wind alone, with implications for resource planning and cost management in Nova Scotia's energy sector.

ources—peak load reduction through energy efficiency and incremental wind, in these instances—when considering whether, or when, to designate the next coal unit for retirement. Notably, this result also indicates a need to construct a new...

AI summary The analysis highlights the economic necessity of constructing a new combined cycle unit in 2023, driven by the Plexos model's capacity expansion algorithm, despite low utilization through 2030. It also notes that two coal unit retirements are projected in the reference scenario over the next decade, influenced by DSM scenarios and wind capacity impacts.

nd scenario 16). This reflects the effect of either high sustaining capital costs or increased wind installations and wind capacity crediting in the Plexos retirement decision.  The presence of fossil‐fleet emission constraints drives dow...

AI summary The text examines energy utilization under fossil-fleet emission constraints, highlighting reduced coal fleet capacity factors, increased reliance on gas/oil, and the impact of wind energy and DSM scenarios. It emphasizes the need for alternative resource planning to achieve lower costs through higher peak load reduction or wind energy integration.

outcome, reinforcing the importance of carefully examining alternative resource scenarios that incorporate higher levels of peak load reduction and/or wind energy, as feasible. Coupled with this emission‐constraint‐driven outcome, however,...

AI summary The analysis emphasizes the economic and emission-driven selection of wind energy and transmission upgrades, highlighting the need for grid flexibility and cost assessments for increased wind generation on NSPI’s system. Scenarios with higher wind integration show lower NPVRR, underscoring the trade-offs between emission constraints and fossil fuel reliance.

nd performance, since battery energy storage systems can replace the increasingly peaking nature of the energy provided by the least cost‐effective of the coal fleet resources.  The bookend scenarios (25, 26) with accelerated coal plant r...

AI summary The text compares NPVRR across scenarios with accelerated coal plant retirements and gas price sensitivity. Accelerated retirements show lower NPVRR, while gas price changes don't significantly alter outcomes. Energy efficiency and wind integration (Scenario 13) are noted as cost-effective alternatives. The Plexos optimization model's results suggest soft-constraint violations in some scenarios.

ractual quantities (NS Block and Supplemental Energy) and allows for both Maritime Link Surplus Energy to be available for purchase and for incremental non‐firm imports (and exports) to New Brunswick. Synapse developed a modeling plan and...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics collaborated with NSPI to model thermal generation optimization using Plexos, incorporating updated fuel costs, sustaining capital estimates, and renewable energy sources (wind, solar, battery storage). The analysis included reserve margin requirements aligned with NPCC reliability criteria and scenarios for new capacity additions.

napse set the Plexos model to maintain a 20 percent reserve margin in all years when making build/retire decisions, in accordance with Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) reliability criteria. Additional modeling scenarios were des...

AI summary The analysis uses the Plexos model with a 20% reserve margin per NPCC reliability criteria, exploring scenarios involving peak load, wind capacity credit, transmission expansion, capital expenditures, battery storage costs, gas prices, and coal plant retirements. Post-processing of model outputs standardizes data and calculates revenue requirements to compare NPV of scenarios.

Yes Note: “RetirePath1” reflects additional forced retirements of coal plants beyond Lingan 2 in 2020/21. It reflects sequential retirement in Plexos of Lingan 4 (2023), Lingan 3 (2024), Lingan 1 (2025), and Trenton 5 (2026). Sensitivities...

AI summary The text outlines forced retirements of coal plants beyond Lingan 2 in 2020/21, including specific retirements in Plexos (Lingan 4, 3, 1, Trenton 5). It details sensitivity analyses on battery costs, natural gas prices, thermal units, and transmission constraints, aiming to explore system flexibility and efficiency gains under relaxed modeling conditions.

Wind Scen./ Sust CapCre NB Sens. # Sensitivity Name Load Capital dit Trans Comment Low Battery Cost Sensitivities 1‐LB Ref Low Battery Cost Ref Ref Ref No Med DSM High Wind Cap Cred 8‐LB Low Batt Cost Med DSM Ref High No 13‐LB Ref NB Trans...

AI summary The text presents sensitivity analyses for energy planning scenarios, including low battery costs, gas price variations, and forced retirements of power generation assets (Tufts Cove 3, Trenton 5). It also references updates to cost and availability models in energy planning tools like Plexos.

15.0 8.8 25 2030 4.50 20.0 8.8 30 19 Maritime Link Interim Cost Assessment M07718. 20 NSPI, response to discovery request DR‐15. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 17 Final Report Not...

AI summary The document discusses the available resource new build costs for NSPI, including wind, gas CC, gas CT, battery storage, and solar PV. Costs were annualized based on economic life, capital cost, and a 7% weighted average cost of capital for NSPI.

2.5%/year 20 None built. decline for 10 years Source: NSPI, Synapse assumptions. Solar PV The capacity expansion module of Plexos did not build out any solar PV resources. Solar PV resources do not provide capacity credit in the winter‐pea...

AI summary The text discusses the lack of solar PV capacity expansion in the winter-peaking region and the potential for behind-the-meter solar PV installations. It also references sustaining capital cost estimates for the thermal fleet provided by NSPI in the 2017 10-Year System Outlook report.

.57 44.2 28.7 TC1 78 1.68 1.57 1.42 1.31 1.74 5.33 1.60 1.42 1.31 3.62 21.0 27.0 TC2 93 9.20 2.89 2.74 2.63 26.05 3.00 2.91 2.74 2.63 4.87 59.7 64.1 TC3 147 3.13 12.84 3.13 8.53 2.66 3.00 6.91 3.13 2.63 2.53 48.5 33.0 TC6 46 2.38 2.53 2.77...

AI summary The document presents annualized sustaining capital costs and discusses the use of 'solar plus storage' as an economic alternative resource option, citing reports from the United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68371.pdf and “Evaluating the Technical and Economic Performance of PV Plus Storage Power Plants,” available at https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68737.pdf. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Ge...

AI summary The document discusses the modeling of sustaining capital costs and wind capacity credits in the context of NSPI's thermal generation and renewable resources. It highlights the treatment of sustaining capital expenditures and the use of different wind capacity credit values in various scenarios.

of 17 percent for NRIS resources and zero for ERIS resources. For all “high wind capacity credit” scenarios (7, 8, 16, 17) a value of 20 percent is used for the capacity credit for all wind resources. The differential capacity credits asso...

AI summary The document discusses capacity credit values for wind resources in Nova Scotia, comparing different scenarios (17%, 20%, and 12.4%). It highlights the impact of using different capacity credit values on the overall capacity contribution and planning reserve margins, especially with coal plant retirements and increased wind deployment.

sive of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland) wind capacity credit range of 28.2 percent to 31.6 percent for the high penetration scenario (35 percent of annual energy Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Therm...

AI summary The document discusses wind integration studies in Nova Scotia, including capacity credit ranges and methodologies like ELCC. It references studies from 2008 and 2013, and mentions Synapse Energy Economics' work on transmission scenarios in New Brunswick.

ty credit value should be considered for resource adequacy purposes.24 New Brunswick Transmission For the New Brunswick transmission scenarios, Synapse made two adjustments in the modeling structure. First, the Plexos LT expansion mechanis...

AI summary The document discusses adjustments made to the modeling structure for New Brunswick transmission scenarios, including enabling the Plexos LT expansion mechanism for wind resource buildout and incorporating a new cost stream for transmission costs. These changes allow for greater wind capacity additions and account for financial considerations related to the transmission infrastructure.

ick load of 50 percent, given the benefits accruing to NB from such 345 kV reinforcement; a book life of 30 years, a cost of capital of 7 percent, and a resulting fixed charge rate of 8.06 percent. 22 GE. 2016. “Pan Canadian Wind Integrati...

AI summary The text discusses the calculation of a fixed charge rate based on a 50 percent load, 30-year book life, and a 7 percent cost of capital. It also references several studies on wind integration and renewable energy, including reports by GE and Hatch.

FINAL.pdf. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 21 Final Report Coal Plant Retirement Path Bookend We have executed Plexos modeling scenarios for two “retirement path” modeling bookends...

AI summary This section discusses modeling scenarios executed by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. for two coal plant retirement path bookends, analyzing build paths, resource use, and costs associated with a gradual retirement of five units over eight years. These scenarios provide a range of costs for a more aggressive coal plant retirement policy, considering uncertainties in carbon emissions policy and other factors.

ing capital costs; alternative resource cost declines) render these bookend scenarios valuable. At a minimum, they provide a bounding estimate on a more aggressive coal plant retirement policy option. Sensitivities We have run additional s...

AI summary The document discusses sensitivity analyses on capital costs, battery costs, natural gas prices, and unit availability, as well as scenarios involving coal plant retirements and transmission flexibility. These analyses aim to evaluate the impact of various factors on energy utilization and system efficiency in Nova Scotia.

nd pipeline system. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 22 Final Report 3. MODELING RESULTS 3.1. Capacity Balance, Build and Retirement Results Planning Reserve Requirements – Capacity...

AI summary This section discusses modeling results related to capacity balance, build and retirement of generation resources. It highlights planning reserve margins (PRM) by scenario and year, and details how the Plexos model optimizes retirement and build decisions based on cost minimization.

Sc2 Med DSM 24.2% 23.8% 23.6% 23.4% 23.1% 23.9% 24.6% 25.3% 26.3% 26.9% 29.0% 29.0% 29.1% Sc4 Ref/HighSusCap 23.4% 20.2% 20.1% 24.5% 23.5% 22.4% 21.9% 21.7% 21.8% 21.6% 21.0% 28.6% 28.0% Sc5 Med DSM/HighSusCap 24.2% 23.8% 23.6% 23.4% 23.1%...

AI summary The text presents a series of scenarios (Sc2, Sc4, Sc5, etc.) with percentage values, likely representing different energy modeling outcomes. These scenarios include variations in demand-side management (DSM), renewable energy capacity, and transmission considerations. The data reflects sensitivity analyses, particularly for low battery cost scenarios.

% 26.7% 42.9% 43.6% 43.7% 43.7% 43.8% Low Battery Cost Sensitivities Sc1LB Ref/BatteryCostDecline 23.4% 20.2% 20.1% 24.5% 23.5% 22.4% 21.9% 21.7% 33.9% 33.7% 33.1% 27.7% 27.0% Sc8LB MedDSM/HighWindCapCredit/BatteryCostDecline 26.3% 25.9% 2...

AI summary The text presents various sensitivity scenarios related to battery costs and gas prices, showing percentage values for different scenarios such as low battery cost decline, medium DSM with high wind capacity credit, and low and high gas price scenarios. These scenarios indicate variations in outcomes based on different assumptions and conditions.

22.0% 22.3% 33.7% 45.0% Sc13HG Ref/NB Trans/AdditionalWind/HighGas 23.4% 22.8% 22.7% 22.1% 21.3% 20.9% 21.3% 21.9% 22.8% 23.5% 22.9% 22.3% 21.7% Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 27...

AI summary The text presents data and scenarios related to energy generation and utilization, including percentages and a table outlining builds and retirements of energy resources from 2018 to 2040. It references a report by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. and a matter number (M08059) related to NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization.

CC253 Batt 20 Batt 40 Batt 100 2 Med DSM Wind 100 Ret Lin 2 Ret Lin 4 Ret Batt 40 Batt 20 Batt 40 Ret Batt 20 Batt 120 Ret Lin 2 New New CC253 4 Ref/HighSusCap Ret Lin 3 Wind 100 CT100 Ret Batt 100 Batt 100 Batt 20 Batt 20 Batt 20

AI summary The text appears to be a diagram or schematic representing various components and connections related to energy systems, including batteries, wind power, and transmission lines. It includes labels such as 'CC253,' 'Batt 20,' 'Wind 100,' and 'Ret Lin 2,' which may refer to specific infrastructure elements or projects.

Batt 80 Batt 40 Ref/NB Ret Lin 4 16 Trans/HighWindCapCr Wind 100 Ret Lin 2 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 edit/600MWWind Batt 20 Batt 20 Batt 20 Batt 80 Batt 20 Batt 20 Med DSM/NB Ret Lin 4 17 Trans/HighWindCapCr Wind 100 Ret...

AI summary The text contains a table with references to wind capacity and demand-side management (DSM) initiatives in New Brunswick, including terms like 'Trans/HighWindCapCr' and 'Med DSM/NB'. It also includes battery capacity references such as 'Batt 20' and 'Batt 80'.

Batt 20 Batt 100 Ret Batt 20 100 Batt 80 Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 28 Final Report Table 8b. Builds and Retirements, Low Battery Cost, Gas Price, and Forced Retirement Sensit...

AI summary The text presents a table from a regulatory proceeding document analyzing builds and retirements of energy resources under various sensitivity scenarios, including low battery cost, gas price, and forced retirement, spanning from 2018 to 2040. The table includes different scenarios such as 'Ref/BatteryCostDecline', 'Batt 100', and 'MedDSM/HighWindCa'.

New CC253 Ret Batt 100 MedDSM/HighWindCa Low Battery Cost Sensitivities 8LB pCredit/BatteryCostDe Wind 100 Ret Lin 2 Ret Lin 4 cline Ref/NB 13LB Trans/AdditionalWind/ Ret Lin 4 Wind 100 Ret Lin 2 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 10...

AI summary The text presents a visual representation of various components and cost sensitivities related to a new CC253 project, including battery costs, wind power, and transmission lines. It includes references to Ret Batt 100, Ret Lin 2, Ret Lin 4, and other related terms, suggesting an analysis of different scenarios involving battery cost declines and wind power integration.

BatteryCostDecline Batt 100 Batt 40 Ret Batt 100 Ret Batt 40 Ret Lin 4 Ret Lin 1 Med New New CC253 Ret Tren 5 26LB DSM/RetirePath1/Batte CT100 Ret Lin 3 New CT200 New CT100 ryCostDecline Wind 100 Ret Lin 2 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 1...

AI summary The text appears to be a visual representation or diagram showing various components such as batteries, wind turbines, and other infrastructure elements. It includes labels like 'BatteryCostDecline', 'Batt 100', 'Batt 40', 'Ret Batt 100', 'Ret Batt 40', 'Ret Lin 4', 'Ret Lin 1', 'New', 'New CC253', 'Ret Tren 5', 'CT100', 'Ret Lin 3', 'New CT200', and 'Wind 100'.

requirements to allow for the inclusion of more wind energy on the system. Since this increase in interconnection capacity would extend back into New Brunswick considerably (we assumed a total cost 27 First‐year DSM costs for 2017 were est...

AI summary The text discusses the cost-sharing arrangement for interconnection reinforcement to New Brunswick, estimating first-year DSM costs for 2017 and new build costs for various energy resources. It references modeling by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. and the use of Plexos for unit commitment and dispatch costs.

nits (in a 253 MW block), and battery energy storage systems (in 20 MW blocks). Fuel, fixed O&M, and variable O&M for new build units are incorporated in the Plexos unit commitment and dispatch costs. Cost Exclusions Excluded from the comp...

AI summary The document discusses the inclusion of new generation and battery energy storage systems in the Plexos unit commitment and dispatch costs. It also highlights the exclusion of additional transmission system support investment from the revenue requirement proxy and outlines the costs associated with reactive power support devices, noting the need for a more robust transmission system as NSPI increases its reliance on renewable energy.

Low Batt Cost Sensitivities by Component by Scenario 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 - Sc1 Sc2 Sc4 Sc5 Sc7 Sc8 Sc13 Sc14 Sc16 Sc17 Sc25 Sc26 Sc1Sens Sc8 LowBatt Sc13Sens Sc26Sens Ref MedDSM HiSusCap HiSuscap HiWnd HiWnd NBTx NBTx NBTx...

AI summary The text presents a graph showing the NPV of revenue requirements by scenario and component, including fuel, variable operating and maintenance (VOM) costs, renewable energy (RE) costs, fixed O&M costs, sustainable capacity, new build, incremental demand-side management (DSM), NB transmission, NS ML costs, and ML surplus plus NB import costs, under different sensitivity scenarios.

st Fuel 4.52 4.03 4.46 4.05 4.44 4.05 3.96 3.62 3.93 3.64 3.69 3.26 4.50 4.08 3.94 3.34 VOM 0.15 0.13 0.15 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.12 0.15 0.13 0.13 0.12 RE Cost 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.06 3.00 2.98 3.00 2.98 2.99 2.96...

AI summary The text presents a table with various cost categories and their values across multiple years, including fuel, VOM, RE cost, fixed O&M, SustCap, New Build, Inc DSM, NB Transm, NS ML Costs, and ML Surp+NB Imp. The data reflects different cost components and their associated figures.

Tufts Cove 3 Trenton 5 Force Retire Original Gas Price Sc 1 TC3 Sc 1 Tufts and Sc 2 TC3 Cove 3 Trenton 5 and Tr5 Sc 1 Low Sc 2 Low Sc 4 Low Sc 13 Low Sc 1 High Sc 4 High Sc 13 High Force Force Force Component Sc 1 Sc 2 Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas...

AI summary The text provides a table comparing various scenarios related to the Tufts Cove 3 and Trenton 5 projects, including fuel costs, variable operating and maintenance (VOM) costs, and renewable energy (RE) costs under different conditions such as low and high gas prices, and a force retire scenario.

ics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 37 Final Report Table 10a. Share of NPV RR by Component and by Scenario ‐ Main Scenarios and Low Battery Cost Sensitivities Sc17 NBTx Low Battery Cost Sensitivities Sc8...

AI summary The table presents the share of NPV RR by component and scenario, including main scenarios and low battery cost sensitivities. It shows varying percentages for fuel, VOM, and RE cost across different scenarios, indicating the impact of different factors on the net present value of renewable energy projects.

Retire Retire Fuel 31.0% 29.0% 30.8% 28.4% 29.5% 26.7% 32.6% 31.8% 29.4% 30.7% 30.6% 29.4% VOM 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% RE Cost 21.0% 22.0% 22.1% 22.2% 21.4% 21.2% 19.7% 19.4% 20.3% 21.3% 21.2% 22.1% Fixe...

AI summary The text presents a series of percentages related to various cost components, including fuel, variable operating and maintenance (VOM), renewable energy (RE) costs, fixed operating and maintenance (O&M), sustained capital (SustCap), new build, incremental demand-side management (Inc DSM), New Brunswick (NB) transmission, Nova Scotia Maritime Link (NS ML) costs, and Maritime Link surplus and NB import costs.

NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 40 Final Report 3.4. Energy Balances Plant Utilization – Capacity Factors – Coal and Tufts Cove Units Figures 8 through 11 contain the utilization of the aggregate coal fleet (as...

AI summary This section discusses the utilization of coal and Tufts Cove units under various scenarios, showing declining coal fleet utilization due to emission regulations and changing utilization patterns at Tufts Cove units, influenced by factors like wind energy and load levels.

verage annual capacity factors because the wind and the saved energy displaces what would otherwise be marginal energy generation at the Tufts Cove facility, in addition to displacing economy imports. Tables 11 through 14, which follow the...

AI summary The text discusses the impact of demand-side management (DSM) and wind energy on thermal generation utilization in different scenarios. It references tables and figures showing capacity factors for various units and scenarios, including the effects of lower load and higher wind generation.

Aggregate Utilization ‐ Scenario 2, Medium DSM 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% Capacity factor 30.0% 20.0% Coal 10.0% TC 1-3 TC 4-6 0.0% Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 42 Final Report Figure 10...

AI summary The text presents capacity factor data for various scenarios involving thermal generation utilization and optimization, including different levels of DSM and wind capacity credits. The charts illustrate the impact of these scenarios on coal and transmission capacity factors.

Final Report Table 13: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 16, NB Transmission, High Wind Capacity Credit, 600 MW Wind

AI summary The text presents a table titled 'Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet' under Scenario 16, which includes NB Transmission, a High Wind Capacity Credit, and a 600 MW Wind capacity. This scenario is part of a larger analysis of energy generation and transmission planning.

New CC ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ New CT Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 47 Final Report Energy by Fuel Type The presence of the continually declining emissi...

AI summary The report discusses the impact of declining emissions constraints on the shift from higher to lower carbon fuels in Nova Scotia's energy mix. It highlights how least-cost dispatch results influence the mix, considering factors like fuel prices, hydro and wind availability, and energy pricing from the Maritime Link and New Brunswick imports.

terns for scenarios 1 and 13. The graphs of energy by fuel type for the remaining scenarios are contained in Appendix 5.5. Table 15. Share of Annual Energy by Fuel – Reference and High Wind Scenarios

AI summary The text references graphs and tables that illustrate the share of annual energy by fuel type for different scenarios, specifically the reference and high wind scenarios, with additional data found in Appendix 5.5.

Share of Annual Energy by Fuel 2018-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2042 Scenario 1 - Reference Coal/Petcoke 42.3% 34.0% 28.3% 22.1% Maritime Link Incl. NF Recall 12.6% 17.1% 18.4% 20.1% Oil/Gas 7.7% 11.6% 15.4% 20.7% Wind 17.7% 18.4% 18.3%...

AI summary The document presents two energy scenarios (Scenario 1 - Reference and Scenario 13 - High Wind) showing the share of annual energy by fuel type from 2018 to 2042. It highlights the decreasing reliance on coal/petcoke and increasing use of wind energy in Scenario 13, while Scenario 1 shows more stable proportions across fuel types.

lus NB Imports NL Recall Load Figure 13. Scenario 13 Reference / NB Transmission / High Wind Annual Energy by Fuel Type 12,000 10,000 Annual generation by fuel type, GWh 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 202...

AI summary The text presents a figure depicting annual energy generation by fuel type over several years, including coal, oil/gas, natural gas combined cycle (NGCC), biomass, hydro, wind, and other renewable energy (RE) sources, as well as imports from New Brunswick (NB) and Newfoundland (NL). It references a report by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc., related to NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059.

io 70 60 50 SO2 kTons/year 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 SO2 Constraint Reference Case Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 7 Scenario 8 Scenario 13 Scenario 16 Scenario 17 Scenario 25 Scenario...

AI summary The document presents graphical data on SO2, NOx, and mercury emissions across various scenarios, including reference cases and different emission constraints, as part of a study on thermal generation utilization and optimization conducted by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. for the Nova Scotia Power Inc. proceeding M08059.

. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 53 Final Report MWh ($CA) for utility‐scale wind.32 Colorado’s Xcel reported results for wind and solar resource procurements with relatively low...

AI summary The report discusses the low costs of renewable energy resources, particularly wind and solar paired with storage, and highlights the potential for NSPI to incorporate more wind into its resource planning. It also notes the importance of considering additional resources like demand response and storage for peak load reduction, though these were not fully explored in the analysis.

vailable. Nonetheless, our total DSM costs for medium DSM scenarios are increased to ~$410 million (NPV RR), compared to the ~$330 million reported in our Draft Report and at the technical conference. The Draft Report and the technical con...

AI summary The report discusses the correction of a post-processing error in the Draft Report and technical conference slides, which led to an overestimation of DSM costs and NPVRR costs for scenarios with increased wind levels. The correction lowers the NPVRR for these scenarios, but does not affect build/retirement decisions. References are made to Efficiency One's letters regarding Navigant report estimates.

Efficiency One. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 55 Final Report Demand Side Options We have limited out assessment to two different loading scenarios, one based on NSPI’s reference...

AI summary The report discusses demand-side management (DSM) scenarios and their impact on NSPI's capacity mix, highlighting the potential to avoid new gas-fired generation and retire coal units. It also examines the benefits of NB transmission ties and additional wind resources, noting the importance of regional cooperation and infrastructure investment.

capital costs incurred a range of 6.5% to 10.4% of total NPVRR costs in our main scenarios. It is critical to continue to assess the pattern of these costs and project future costs. 5. Establish requirements to allow increased levels of wi...

AI summary The document discusses capital costs and the need to assess their future impact. It also outlines requirements for increasing wind energy on the NSPI system, including infrastructure improvements and coordination with neighboring provinces for reliability with increased wind resource utilization.

and unit commitment requirements needed in association with the Tufts Cove thermal units, to allow appropriate parameterization in Plexos to enable possible economic retirement. Ongoing 8. Identify candidates for the “next” coal retirement...

AI summary The document outlines ongoing tasks related to thermal unit optimization, including identifying candidates for coal retirement after Lingan 2, ranking thermal units by economic performance, and monitoring natural gas price trends in the Maritimes. These actions aim to support economic retirement decisions and long-term planning.

Med DSM Ref Ref Yes Yes 27 Change Case High DSM/RetirePath1 High DSM Ref Ref Yes Yes 28 Change Case Ref/RetirePath2 Ref Ref Ref Yes Yes 29 Change Case Med DSM/RetirePath2 Med DSM Ref Ref Yes Yes 30 Change Case High DSM/RetirePath2 High DSM...

AI summary The document outlines scenarios for demand-side management (DSM) and retirement pathways, including load forecasts, capital cost assumptions, and wind capacity contributions. It references modeling parameters for sensitivity cases, such as higher load scenarios from increased electrification and EV adoption, and alternative wind capacity targets.

6 Change Case High DSM/HighSusCap High DSM High Ref No No 7 Change Case Ref/HighWindCapCredit Ref Ref High No No 8 Change Case Med DSM/HighWindCapCredit Med DSM Ref High No No 9 Change Case High DSM/HighWindCapCredit High DSM Ref High No N...

AI summary The table outlines various scenarios with differing combinations of demand-side management (DSM) levels, sustainable capacity (SusCap), wind capacity credits (WindCapCredit), and New Brunswick transmission (NB Trans) considerations. Scenarios range from 'High DSM/HighSusCap' to 'Med DSM/NB Trans/HighWindCapCredit', indicating analysis of resource planning and infrastructure integration options.

nc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-6 Appendix Table 6: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 8, Medium DSM, High Wind Capacity Credit

AI summary The document references NSPI's thermal generation utilization and optimization under Scenario 8, which includes Medium DSM and High Wind Capacity Credit. Appendix Table 6 details capacity factors for the thermal fleet, indicating analysis of generation efficiency under varying demand-side management and renewable energy scenarios.

30% 16% 12% 10% 14% 20% 17% 21% 13% 27% 23% 30% 21% 27% 18% 26% 26% 28% Cove 5 16 - Tufts 23% 15% 18% 16% 17% 16% 7% 14% 7% 5% 5% 6% 9% 8% 10% 6% 13% 12% 13% 11% 13% 9% 12% 13% 16% Cove 6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - N...

AI summary The text presents capacity factor data for thermal generation scenarios, including a reference to 'NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059' and a table titled 'Appendix Table 9: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet' under Scenario 16 involving NB Transmission and 600 MW Wind. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. is cited as the author.

zation and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-9 Appendix Table 9: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 16, NB Transmission, High Wind Capacity Credit, 600 MW Wind

AI summary The text references Appendix Table 9, which details capacity factors for a thermal fleet under Scenario 16 involving NB Transmission, High Wind Capacity Credit, and 600 MW Wind. This scenario likely evaluates the integration of wind energy into the grid and its impact on thermal generation capacity.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - New CT Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-10 Appendix Table 10: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 17, Medium DMS, NB Tr...

AI summary The document references a scenario (Scenario 17) involving Medium DMS, NB Transmission, and High Wind Capacity Credit, with a table titled 'Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet' from Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. under matter M08059.

al Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-10 Appendix Table 10: Capacity Factors – Thermal Fleet Scenario 17, Medium DMS, NB Transmission, High Wind Capacity Credit

AI summary The text refers to a scenario (Scenario 17) in a regulatory proceeding related to generation utilization and optimization, focusing on capacity factors for the thermal fleet under conditions of Medium DMS, NB Transmission, and High Wind Capacity Credit. The appendix table likely details these factors, contributing to discussions on energy system planning and resource allocation.

- - - - - 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 5% New CT Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.4-13 Appendix 5.5 Detailed Scenario Results – Energy by Fuel Type S...

AI summary The document contains detailed scenario results from an energy analysis conducted by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. for Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) on thermal generation utilization and optimization, with multiple scenarios exploring different fuel types, DSM levels, and wind capacity credits.

h Wind Capacity Credit Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 A.5.5-6 Figure 11: Annual Energy By Fuel Type Scenario 25, Retirement Path Figure 12: Annual Energy By Fuel Type Scenario 26,...

AI summary The text references two scenarios (Scenario 25 and Scenario 26) related to NSPI's thermal generation utilization and optimization, with a focus on energy production by fuel type under different retirement paths and DSM levels.

Appendix 5.6 REDACTED CONFIDENTIAL Memorandum TO: M08059 GENERATION UTILIZATION AND OPTIMIZATION STAKEHOLDERS FROM: BOB FAGAN, RACHEL WILSON, DAVID WHITE – SYNAPSE ENERGY ECONOMICS DATE: OCTOBER 16, 2017 RE: KEY INPUT ASSUMPTIONS AND MODEL...

AI summary This memo outlines Synapse Energy Economics' modeling plan for the Generation Utilization and Optimization study, seeking stakeholder input on assumptions related to energy storage, wind/solar costs, and demand-side management (DSM) scenarios. The analysis compares long-term costs of retaining NSPI’s thermal fleet versus alternative resource mixes, though it explicitly states it is not an integrated resource plan (IRP).

s of resources. Our aim is to provide a modeling analysis that shows the costs of retention versus the costs of alternative resource plans that use a different mix of resources to meet capacity needs. The analysis proceeds in an electric s...

AI summary The analysis compares the costs of retaining coal resources versus alternative resource plans, considering declining renewable energy costs, increasing coal costs, infrastructure changes like the Maritime Link, and carbon emission reductions. It evaluates economic viability of coal amid aging plants and uncertain gas prices.

Ref Ref Ref Yes Yes 26 Change Case Med DSM/RetirePath1 Med DSM Ref Ref Yes Yes 27 Change Case High DSM/RetirePath1 High DSM Ref Ref Yes Yes 28 Change Case Ref/RetirePath2 Ref Ref Ref Yes Yes 29 Change Case Med DSM/RetirePath2 Med DSM Ref R...

AI summary The document outlines modeling parameters for different scenarios involving demand-side management (DSM) and wind capacity contributions. It references Synapse Energy Economics, Inc.'s Modeling Plan and includes sensitivity cases for load forecasts, capital costs, and wind capacity. Key variables include reference values and alternative scenarios such as 'High DSM' and '25% All Wind (GE Study)'.

NSPI 2017 Plus 50% +25%, +100% Wind Capacity Contribution 2017 NSPI 0% ERIS, 17% NRIS 20% All Wind 25% All Wind (GE Study) NSPI 2017 $400 Million + New Eng. Capac. Either With or Without NB Smaller intertie connection, NB Transmission Mark...

AI summary The document outlines scenarios for wind capacity contributions, NB Transmission market costs, and retirement paths (Retire Path 1 and 2) with associated financial figures, transmission planning considerations, and credit mechanisms like High Wind Capacity Credit. It includes modeling parameters for load forecasts and intertie connection options.

course of the modeling. The PLEXOS modeling can proceed without having a firm estimate for these costs; the envelope of quantity reductions is the key input assumption. As noted, the mid DSM scenario includes ramping up the current energy...

AI summary The analysis explores mid and high DSM scenarios, emphasizing energy efficiency and demand response impacts on peak load reduction. Capital cost assumptions, wind capacity contributions, and sensitivity analyses are discussed to evaluate thermal unit retention economics and capacity expansion paths.

flat. Gas LBL, Lazard similar costs. 40% Estimated cost trend. CF, Lower/higher installed Wind Costs – installed NSPI 2017 $2,000/kW -2.0%/year Estimated performance best Utility costs, performance available sites. Recent cost Scale declin...

AI summary The text discusses wind energy installation costs ($2,000/kW with a -2%/year decline), NB Transmission costs ($400 million for a 345 kV line), and capacity costs tied to the NE Market (FCM=$6.61/kW). It highlights declining wind costs and high transmission expenditures.

0%/year – partial build or for NB Transm. Costs -month $5.30/kW-mo. $US Transmission different cost allocation Imports via ML: NE Market FCM=$6.61/kW NE FCM 2020 clearing price Synapse: Recent FCM 0%/year Negotiated pricing - NFL Capacity...

AI summary The text outlines transmission costs, Fuel Cost Mechanism (FCM) rates, solar PV costs from Lazard and LBL reports, and coal/oil prices from NSPI 2017. It references $5.30/kW-mo for transmission, $2.75/watt for solar PV, and declining fuel caps under regulations.

ive individual years for ST production cost (8760 hour) runs (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040). Specific Capacity Resource Options to be Considered in Capacity Expansion/Retirement Analysis The following resource options will be made avai...

AI summary The document outlines resource options for capacity expansion and retirement analysis, including existing thermal plants, renewables, storage, and import capacities. It details parameters for PLEXOS optimization and the baseline resource mix, including NSPI's contributions.

(377.1 MW) plus 30 MW increment at Mersey. Assume 10 MW increment at Wreck Cove (Source: NSPI). • All current NSPI renewables (wind, biomass) remain in place at existing MW levels. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. M08059 Generation Utilizati...

AI summary The text outlines NSPI's renewable energy assumptions, including wind capacity increments and existing facilities, along with modeling constraints from Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. It also details sustaining capital cost scenarios and references key sources.

Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board Mailing address Office PO Box 1692, Unit “MM 3rd Floor, 1601 Lower Water Street Halifax, Nova Scotia Halifax, Nova Scotia B3J 3P6 B3J 3S3 1 855 442-4448 (toll-free) [email protected] 902 424-4448 t ht...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board directed Nova Scotia Power Inc. to conduct further analysis on underutilized thermal generation plants, optimize sustaining capital, and evaluate storage and wind capacity contributions following a technical conference on generation utilization and optimization.

llions of dollars of projected sustaining capital on those facilities still remains outstanding. In addition, analysis of storage options and wind capacity contributions deserve greater consideration. In order to move forward with these ma...

AI summary The Board engages Synapse Energy Economics Inc. to analyze generation resource utilization and cost-effective options for Nova Scotia ratepayers. A reclassification of thermal units is deferred until after the 2017-2019 rate stabilization period. Stakeholders will review Terms of Reference, and NSPI will provide technical data for analysis.

Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board Mailing address Office PO Box 1692, Unit “MM 3rd Floor, 1601 Lower Water Street Halifax, Nova Scotia Halifax, Nova Scotia B3J 3P6 B3J 3S3 1 855 442-4448 (toll-free) [email protected] 902 424-4448 t ht...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board highlights concerns regarding underutilized thermal generation plants and the need for further analysis on optimizing capital investments, storage options, and wind capacity contributions. Despite uncertainties in future planning, the Board emphasizes the importance of addressing these issues to improve resource optimization.

g resource adequacy requirements), or they affect the capacity contributions available from existing and potentially new alternative capacity resources. The eight action items are characterized below: 1. Optimize the level of sustaining ca...

AI summary The text outlines eight action items addressing resource adequacy, including optimizing fossil fuel capital expenditures, conducting wind penetration studies, regional coordination, evaluating wind capacity value, monitoring market opportunities, assessing demand response, securing DSM commitments, and evaluating Mersey Development. These focus on reliability, transmission, and renewable integration.

opportunities. 7. Obtain DSM resource commitments consistent with the IRP analysis. 8. Evaluate options for Mersey Development, and the potential to add 30 MW of capacity to the system. In addition to these IRP action items, continuing red...

AI summary The text outlines IRP action items, including evaluating Mersey Development and assessing the economic viability of retaining coal units versus renewable resources. It criticizes NSPI's lack of rigorous analysis on sustaining coal fleet investments and notes the 2014 IRP's incomplete examination of coal retention's economic optimality.

ge options “are not cost competitive” compared to traditional solutions.6 However, this conclusion was based on an assessment of the Levelized Electricity Cost to Grid,7 and did not capture the value analysis (e.g., during the 2020s). An i...

AI summary The text discusses the cost competitiveness of renewable energy options, referencing the GE wind integration study and Lazard's storage analysis. It notes that the GE study is outdated and that synthetic inertia could replace traditional support. An iterative modeling approach could reduce costs in future IRPs but wasn't used due to time constraints.

ain energy storage technologies and use cases are currently in the midst of rapid cost declines that will likely persist.” (Executive Summary, page 3, emphasis added) 3‐ Regional Coordination Options Continuing regional coordination has sy...

AI summary The text highlights rapid energy storage cost declines, advocates for regional grid coordination among Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland to enhance wind integration, and critiques NSPI's low 12% wind capacity credit compared to higher regional benchmarks (20-46%). It emphasizes technical cooperation and grid modernization for efficient wind resource planning.

% to 46% of capacity and Quebec’s use of 30%.9 The contribution of wind resources to capacity requirements must continue to be carefully examined; if Nova Scotia was to use a capacity credit of 20% 8 EPRI, Energy Storage Cost Summary for U...

AI summary The text examines Nova Scotia's capacity requirements, emphasizing the need to assess wind resource capacity credits and explore import capacity via the Maritime Link and New Brunswick. It highlights the potential of demand response and energy efficiency programs to address resource adequacy gaps, particularly under different coal plant retirement scenarios.

7009 7885 8761 Hours per Year Load Greater than Indicated Value Source: NSPI OASIS, Hourly Load Data, 2016. 10 Based on 600 MW (20% ‐ 12%). 7 In the most recent load forecast, NSPI projects increasing peak load. In response to the Board’s...

AI summary NSPI's load forecast projects increasing peak demand, citing Synapse's report as justification. However, Synapse recommends refining peak load calculations due to historically flat historical peaks. The text argues for urgent analysis of alternatives to coal plant investments, emphasizing a portfolio approach over single substitutions to ensure cost-effective, reliable service.

NSPI’s projected requirements. Any analysis must first rigorously explore the cost and capability of demand side options, and accurately represent their attributes in any capacity expansion exercise. 11 NSPI response to NS UARB IR‐2 (b‐c)....

AI summary NSPI emphasizes rigorous analysis of demand-side options for capacity expansion, critiques its own example of substituting a combustion turbine for a coal plant as oversimplified, and stresses the need for updated assumptions in supply-side alternatives. The analysis must address ramping requirements and wind resource integration.

va Scotia’s current system, but also ramping and ancillary service requirements under different scenarios of increased penetration of wind resources and utilization of, for example, storage resources. Supply‐side assessment for future year...

AI summary The analysis examines Nova Scotia’s energy system under increased wind penetration and storage utilization, emphasizing winter gas availability from New England. New England’s GHG reduction targets may lower natural gas prices in the Maritimes, impacting supply-side planning. Attachments include studies on storage costs and grid adequacy.

NPCC 2016 LONG RANGE ADEQUACY OVERVIEW APPENDIX C Maritimes The Maritimes Assessment Area is a winter-peaking NPCC subregion that contains two Balancing Authorities. It is comprised of the Canadian provinces of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia,...

AI summary The Maritimes Assessment Area, a winter-peaking subregion of the NPCC, includes New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and northern Maine. It uses a 50/50 coincident load forecast method with a 20% reference margin. Wind resource planning considers mandated capacity factors, while solar is excluded. A potential tie line to Newfoundland could impact the region's footprint.

impacts. Planning Considerations for Solar Resources N/A Footprint Changes A conceptual tie line to the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador could potentially impact the Maritimes footprint.

AI summary The text outlines planning considerations for solar resources, noting that a conceptual tie line to Newfoundland and Labrador could impact the Maritimes footprint. This highlights grid planning challenges related to renewable energy integration and regional connectivity.

mands and potential NPCC CP-8 Working Group 48 Approved by the RCC - December 6, 2016 NPCC 2016 LONG RANGE ADEQUACY OVERVIEW imports to NB from NS that may begin after the completion of the HVDC interconnection to the Canadian province of...

AI summary The document discusses energy efficiency program growth in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia's planned renewable capacity additions (wind, solar, biomass), and potential impacts of retiring a coal plant. It notes that HVDC interconnection to Newfoundland may offset coal retirement, with reliability concerns if hydro capacity delays occur.

ith the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador. Should a delay occur in the introduction of energy from the new hydro capacity, the retirement of the coal unit will be correspondingly delayed? Renewable Energy Standards (RESs) have...

AI summary The text discusses renewable energy developments in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, including wind generation capacity deratings, the Maritimes Link project's role in providing hydro resources, and a planned coal unit retirement in Nova Scotia offset by hydro capacity via an HVDC cable to Newfoundland and Labrador. It highlights challenges with frequency response from wind generation and regional differences in capacity derating methodologies.

nning reserve is available to cover the loss of the largest base loaded generator in the area. The latter situation is mitigated further by wide geographic dispersal of wind resources across the Area. The Maritimes Area has a diversified m...

AI summary The Maritimes Area maintains resource adequacy through diversified capacity resources (nuclear, oil, coal, natural gas, hydro, wind, biomass) and geographic wind dispersal. Fuel diversity reduces reliance on single sources, with no anticipated disruptions. Ramp rate variability analysis shows minimal changes expected during the LTRA assessment period, though historical data is limited.

File No: SM002557-00003 Nancy G. Rubin, Q.C. Direct Dial: 902.420-3337 [email protected] April 27, 2017 Delivered by E-mail Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 3rd Floor 1601 Lower Wa...

AI summary NSPI responds to the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board's concerns regarding its 10-Year System Outlook Report, noting increased peak demand despite declining energy sales. It explains that variable renewable integration has altered steam unit utilization, requiring low-capacity thermal units to meet capacity needs and maintain reserve margins.

Multeese Consulting Incorporated 163 Parkerest Drive. Lawrencetown. N.S. B27, 1M1 April 26, 2017 Doreen Friis, Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street Halifax NS B3J 3P6 Dear Ms. Friis:...

AI summary NSPI argues for maintaining its thermal generators until end-of-life, except Lingan 2, which would retire with Newfoundland power availability. Key reasons include meeting 1% annual firm load growth, 20% reserve margin needs, economic efficiency of existing units over replacement, and limited wind firm capacity (17% NRIS). Wind requires load-following capacity from thermal units.

ot designed to follow load to the degree expected over the coming years. The magnitude of this load following can be up to the full nameplate capacity of the wind on the system (approximately 600 MW). Retaining the thermal units offers fle...

AI summary NSPI proposes retaining thermal units for flexibility amid environmental regulations and cap-and-trade commitments, requiring $400M over ten years. Questions challenge the plan's customer advantage, wind capacity limits, alternative energy sources, capital forecasts, and renewable integration costs.

n the thermal units appropriate? e) What are the operating realities with respect to renewable sources of generation, what options are there to address these, and what are the costs of those options? These questions have been under review...

AI summary The text raises questions about renewable generation's operating realities, addressing options and their costs, referencing reviews since the 2014 IRP. It proposes two options: updating the IRP or collaborating with Synapse. Factors like the Maritime Link delay, DSM developments, and tech advancements in renewables/storage are highlighted as reasons for potential IRP updates.

es with respect to environmental concerns in both the short and long term, and technological developments with respect to renewables and storage. This option typically takes about a year to complete. With respect to the second option, this...

AI summary The text outlines two options for addressing environmental and technological considerations: a comprehensive one-year plan and a six-month screening exercise to evaluate alternatives to NSPI’s coal plant operations. The author recommends the latter, suggesting it could identify more cost-effective solutions or necessitate adjustments to NSPI’s plan or further IRP work.

echnical Conference, NS Power discussed its intention to improve its engagement process. 1 NSUARB Letter, 10‐Year System Outlook Report, February 9, 2017, M07540. April 27, 2017 D. Friis Stakeholders brought to the Company’s attention more...

AI summary NS Power aims to improve stakeholder engagement following feedback on its thermal unit utilization and investment strategy. Key discussion topics include reserve margin requirements, federal coal legislation impacts, gas consumption outlook, and regional transmission interconnections. Stakeholders emphasized the need for transparency on resource adequacy planning and potential alternatives to NS Power's existing investment strategy for fossil fuel units.

ile, control coal dust, and provide ash handling. Older coal plants will also need capital investment to keep them running reliably and running a peaking duty cycle these plants were not designed for. NS Power has expressed reluctance to s...

AI summary The text discusses the need to retire older coal plants and analyze the economic viability of alternatives like natural gas, transmission interconnections, hydro imports, and energy storage, contingent on carbon pricing. NS Power's reluctance to study coal retirements until carbon targets are clearer is noted, but the authors advocate for a carbon-price-based analysis to inform policy decisions and track technological cost changes annually.

Proposed Terms of Reference Plexos Optimization Analysis Cost-Effectiveness of Retaining NSPI Thermal Resources Through and Possibly Beyond 2030 Synapse Energy Economics July 7, 2017 Introduction The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board’s...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board requested Synapse Energy Economics to analyze the cost-effectiveness of retaining NSPI’s thermal resources through 2030, considering capital expenditures, storage options, wind capacity, and using the Plexos modeling system. The focus is on optimizing thermal fleet utilization for Nova Scotia ratepayers.

e resource plan” 2 would result from running Plexos with different combinations of the input assumption sets illustrated below. Illustrative Matrix: Example of key parameters and range of assumptions Alternative assumptions: Set 1 Set 2 Se...

AI summary The text presents an illustrative matrix of alternative assumptions for an integrated resource plan (IRP), evaluating scenarios with varying parameters such as load forecasts, gas prices, transmission capacity, wind resource costs, and carbon constraints. Three assumption sets (Set 1–3) explore different levels of energy efficiency, capital requirements, and renewable energy integration.

resources, including fixed and variable O&M and any required sustaining capital, and the costs of fuel. If applicable, emission costs. 3 • Existing hydro and wind resource output profiles and operating costs, including fixed and variable O...

AI summary The text outlines the evaluation of resource costs for existing and new generation sources (hydro, wind, biomass, fossil, renewables), transmission reinforcement, and demand-side management, emphasizing data from NSPI and external sources like NREL and US EIA. Emission costs and storage resource costs are also considered.

g resource adequacy requirements), or they affect the capacity contributions available from existing and potentially new alternative capacity resources. The eight action items are characterized below: 1. Optimize the level of sustaining ca...

AI summary The document outlines eight action items addressing resource adequacy, including optimizing capital expenditures for fossil-fueled plants, conducting system studies for higher wind penetration, regional coordination with Newfoundland and New Brunswick, evaluating wind capacity value, exploring market opportunities, assessing demand response, securing DSM commitments, and evaluating Mersey Development's 30 MW capacity addition.

opportunities. 7. Obtain DSM resource commitments consistent with the IRP analysis. 8. Evaluate options for Mersey Development, and the potential to add 30 MW of capacity to the system. In addition to these IRP action items, continuing red...

AI summary The document outlines IRP action items, including DSM resource commitments and evaluating Mersey Development's 30 MW capacity potential. It criticizes NSPI for not rigorously analyzing the economic optimality of retaining seven coal units beyond 2030, citing gaps in their 2014 IRP analysis regarding capital expenditures and renewable energy cost impacts.

through programmatic efforts to achieve peak demand reduction through demand response options beyond those currently obtained via interruptible industrial load. 2 – Conduct Additional System Studies NSPI has not yet conducted any updates t...

AI summary NSPI has not conducted updated studies on wind penetration or transmission system support needs for higher wind integration. It acknowledges reduced steam unit requirements by 2020 but emphasizes the need for further analysis on coal plant retirement scenarios. Storage alternatives were discussed but deemed 'not cost competitive' based on Levelized Electricity Cost to Grid assessments.

options “are not cost competitive” compared to traditional solutions. 9 However, this conclusion was based on an assessment of the Levelized Electricity Cost to Grid, 10 and did not capture the value analysis (e.g., during the 2020s). An i...

AI summary The text discusses the cost competitiveness of energy solutions, noting that some options are not cost-effective based on Levelized Electricity Cost to Grid assessments. It highlights the potential of iterative modeling to reduce costs and references studies on synthetic inertia and energy storage. The GE 2013 wind integration study and Lazard's LCOS 2.0 analysis are cited as key resources.

ain energy storage technologies and use cases are currently in the midst of rapid cost declines that will likely persist.” (Executive Summary, page 3, emphasis added) 3- Regional Coordination Options Continuing regional coordination has sy...

AI summary The text highlights rapid declines in energy storage costs, advocates for regional grid coordination among Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland to enhance wind integration, and critiques NSPI's low wind capacity credit (12%) compared to higher regional benchmarks (20%-46%). It emphasizes technical cooperation and grid modernization for reliability and decarbonization.

009 7885 8761 Hours per Year Load Greater than Indicated Value Source: NSPI OASIS, Hourly Load Data, 2016. 13 Based on 600 MW (20% - 12%). A-7 In the most recent load forecast, NSPI projects increasing peak load. In response to the Board’s...

AI summary NSPI's load forecast projects increasing peak demand, with Synapse recommending a review of peak load calculations due to historically flat historical peaks. The report highlights discrepancies between NSPI's method and energy projections. A suggested resolution emphasizes analyzing alternatives to coal plant retention, prioritizing least-cost options for reliable service.

NSPI’s projected requirements. Any analysis must first rigorously explore the cost and capability of demand side options, and accurately represent their attributes in any capacity expansion exercise. 14 NSPI response to NS UARB IR-2 (b-c)....

AI summary NSPI argues that its example of substituting a combustion turbine for a coal plant oversimplifies capacity expansion considerations, emphasizing variable factors like capital costs and locational economics. The analysis must rigorously evaluate demand-side options and include updated assumptions for supply-side alternatives, addressing system ramping and ancillary service needs under varying renewable penetration scenarios.

va Scotia’s current system, but also ramping and ancillary service requirements under different scenarios of increased penetration of wind resources and utilization of, for example, storage resources. Supply-side assessment for future year...

AI summary The text discusses the need for supply-side assessments considering increased wind penetration and energy storage, as well as the potential for more economical winter gas availability from New England due to regional greenhouse gas reduction targets. Attachments include studies on storage costs and grid adequacy.

and Analysis The SBA does not fully understand the methodology that this study is following well enough to endorse that the results will be informative. The SBA has identified the following concerns: 1. It is unclear whether this is going...

AI summary The SBA raises seven methodological concerns about a study, including uncertainty around analysis type (probabilistic vs. scenario), treatment of carrying costs, thermal generation modeling, resource adequacy determination, Behind the Meter Resources, and Renewables to Retail impacts. The SBA also questions assumptions linking high carbon costs to high fuel prices.

1. How is the potential amount of price responsive demand being determined and at what cost? 2. How does this overlap energy efficiency activities? B. Wind Generation 1. How is the maximum potential for wind generation developed? 2. Are th...

AI summary The document outlines questions about energy resource potential, including wind, solar, storage, and imports, focusing on cost, financing, and integration. It also asks about the role of behind-the-meter (BTM) systems and power purchase agreements (PPAs). The SBA acknowledges the opportunity to comment.

ST Plexos module to assess customer cost and rate impact? Assumptions NS Power requests that clarity be provided for the following items relating to the assumptions to be used for the modelling:  How will Synapse distinguish critical inpu...

AI summary NS Power seeks clarity on assumptions for ST Plexos modelling, including critical vs. non-critical inputs, demand-side scenarios, storage technologies, capital sustaining assumptions, natural gas pricing, transmission configurations, carbon pricing rationale, and wind capacity value adjustments.

tem and could present reliability risks without additional system resources to respond to contingencies. Rescaling of this assumption or consideration of reliability implications would be required. Regarding the “medium” and “high” cases f...

AI summary The text discusses reliability risks from wind capacity assumptions and critiques the GE study's methodology for wind generation. NS Power advocates using multi-year data for accurate wind capacity value ranges, while Synapse highlights uncertainties in capital expenditure projections for aging plants, citing specific large capital injection needs.

1 July 17, 2017 VIA EMAIL Ms. Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor Halifax, NS B3J 3S3 Dear Ms. Friis: Re: M08059 – Generation Utilization and Optimization Th...

AI summary The Consumer Advocate comments on the proposed Terms of Reference for M08059, highlighting the need to consider distributed generation's impact, energy supply uncertainties, demand response from AMI, and worst-case scenarios for coal and Tufts Cove steam. They recommend Synapse consult stakeholders for scenario input.

I Thermal Resources Through and Possibly Beyond 2030 Synapse Energy Economics July 7August 1, 2017 Introduction The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board’s May 5, 2017 letter in M08059 - Generation Utilization and Optimization indicated an...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board requested Synapse Energy Economics to analyze optimal utilization of NSPI’s thermal generation fleet, considering sustaining capital expenditures, storage options, and wind capacity contributions. The study focuses on economic impacts for ratepayers using the Plexos modeling system.

ts illustrated below. Due to time limitations, we will not define scenarios for all possible permutations of input assumptions. Illustrative Matrix: Example of key parameters and range of assumptions Alternative assumptions: Set 1 Set 2 Se...

AI summary The text presents a matrix of alternative assumptions for energy planning parameters, including load, capital requirements, gas prices, transmission, wind resource costs, demand response, storage, carbon costs, and balancing areas. Scenarios explore varying levels of energy efficiency, capital needs, and resource availability.

resource categories are carefully specified for use in Plexos; we anticipate that early provision (July) by NSPI of detailed Plexos input files in Plexos configuration will be of particular value: 4 • Existing coal, oil and gas thermal res...

AI summary The document outlines resource categories for Plexos modeling, including fossil fuels, renewables, storage, transmission, and demand-side management. NSPI will provide detailed input files, with data sources including NREL, US EIA, and others. The load forecast aligns with NSPI's latest projections.

g resource adequacy requirements), or they affect the capacity contributions available from existing and potentially new alternative capacity resources. The eight action items are characterized below: 1. Optimize the level of sustaining ca...

AI summary The document outlines eight action items addressing resource adequacy, including optimizing capital expenditures, studying wind penetration impacts, regional coordination, evaluating wind resources, monitoring market opportunities, assessing demand response, securing DSM commitments, and evaluating Mersey Development. These steps aim to ensure system reliability and capacity contributions.

opportunities. 7. Obtain DSM resource commitments consistent with the IRP analysis. 8. Evaluate options for Mersey Development, and the potential to add 30 MW of capacity to the system. In addition to these IRP action items, continuing red...

AI summary The document outlines IRP action items, including DSM resource commitments and evaluating Mersey Development's 30 MW capacity. It criticizes NSPI for not rigorously analyzing the economic optimality of retaining seven coal units through 2030, citing the 2014 IRP's lack of thorough examination. Renewable energy cost reductions and traditional gas-fired resources are noted as factors affecting coal unit retention economics.

through programmatic efforts to achieve peak demand reduction through demand response options beyond those currently obtained via interruptible industrial load. 2 – Conduct Additional System Studies NSPI has not yet conducted any updates t...

AI summary NSPI must conduct additional studies on wind penetration and transmission support, including dynamic reactive supply and storage. The Board questions NSPI's claim that storage is not cost-competitive. NSPI acknowledges reduced steam unit needs post-2020 but requires further analysis of coal plant retirement scenarios.

question from the Board as part of the 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan (M07745), NSPI indicated that storage options “are not cost competitive” compared to traditional solutions.10 However, this peak demand reduction through DSM, whic...

AI summary NSPI's 2017 Capital Expenditure Plan (M07745) stated energy storage was not cost-competitive. However, demand-side management (DSM) reduced peak demand, creating surplus capacity. An iterative modeling approach could have retired coal units, lowering costs. The GE 2013 wind integration study and Lazard's 2016 storage analysis are referenced, alongside synthetic inertia as a potential grid stability solution.

ain energy storage technologies and use cases are currently in the midst of rapid cost declines that will likely persist.” (Executive Summary, page 3, emphasis added) 3- Regional Coordination Options Continuing regional coordination has sy...

AI summary The text highlights rapid energy storage cost declines, advocates for regional grid coordination among Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland to enhance wind integration, and critiques NSPI's low wind capacity credit (12%) compared to higher regional benchmarks (20-46%). It emphasizes technical cooperation and operational efficiency gains from shared grid planning.

009 7885 8761 Hours per Year Load Greater than Indicated Value Source: NSPI OASIS, Hourly Load Data, 2016. 14 Based on 600 MW (20% - 12%). A-9 In the most recent load forecast, NSPI projects increasing peak load. In response to the Board’s...

AI summary NSPI discusses load forecasting methods, citing Synapse's report that questions the accuracy of peak load projections. The report recommends refining peak load calculations due to flat historical trends. The text emphasizes the need for a portfolio of alternatives to coal plant retention, balancing renewable integration with reliability and cost considerations.

NSPI’s projected requirements. Any analysis must first rigorously explore the cost and capability of demand side options, and accurately represent their attributes in any capacity expansion exercise. 15 NSPI response to NS UARB IR-2 (b-c)....

AI summary NSPI argues that demand-side options must be rigorously evaluated for cost and capability in capacity expansion. The Board critiques NSPI's example of substituting a combustion turbine for a coal plant as oversimplified, noting variable assumptions and unaddressed locational factors. Supply-side analysis must include updated cost/performance data and address ramping/ancillary service needs from wind and storage integration.

va Scotia’s current system, but also ramping and ancillary service requirements under different scenarios of increased penetration of wind resources and utilization of, for example, storage resources. Supply-side assessment for future year...

AI summary The analysis emphasizes the need to assess winter gas availability from New England, influenced by their greenhouse gas reduction targets, and the implications for Maritimes energy costs. It also highlights the importance of considering storage and wind resource scenarios in supply-side planning.

ritical to continue to Page 5 of 8 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) June 7, 2018 D. Friis Synapse Recommendation NS Power Response / Position assess the pattern of these costs and project future costs. 5. Establish requirements...

AI summary Synapse recommends assessing wind integration costs, enhancing transmission infrastructure, and improving inter-provincial coordination. NS Power supports these measures, emphasizing the need for technical assessments, grid reinforcement, and capacity planning to accommodate increased wind energy and maintain reliability.

r does this now and agrees that it association with the TUC units, to allow is important to continually assess. appropriate parametrization in Plexos to enable possible economic retirement Page 6 of 8 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REM...

AI summary Synapse recommends ongoing activities for coal retirement planning and natural gas monitoring, which NS Power supports. The report concludes that retaining NS Power’s thermal fleet through 2030 is cost-effective for customers, emphasizing the need for flexibility in unit rankings and continuous assessment of fuel trends.

respecting these issues. Conclusion The Synapse Report confirms that it is cost-effective to customers to retain NS Power’s thermal fleet through 2030, and possibly beyond. As stated above, NS Power’s comments are not to be taken as an end...

AI summary The Synapse Report concludes retaining NS Power’s thermal fleet through 2030 is cost-effective. NS Power acknowledges the report addresses the Board’s original questions but disputes its assumptions and modeling. They oppose a hearing on the report, advocating instead for proceeding to the next IRP and implementing the report’s nine recommendations.

bon reduction requirements, federal equivalency and the operation of the Maritime Link. With regard to the study framework proposed by Synapse, the Company suggests consideration of the following: • Whether the period of study needs to be...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NSP) questions Synapse's proposed 25-year study framework, raising concerns about resource availability (e.g., NB transmission, battery storage), uncertainty in federal/provincial regulations, and the need for clarity on DSM program selection criteria. NSP also notes the Board's planned 2018 DSM hearing and lack of reference plan criteria.

forecasted PHP load is based on historical requirements of the mill and would not be included in any correlating demand reduction associated with this DSM amount. iv) NS Power notes there is an inconsistency with the cumulative peak DSM to...

AI summary NSP highlights inconsistencies in DSM plan totals, advocates for load forecasts considering electrification, and provides updated fuel price data. It emphasizes the need for accurate resource cost assumptions and updated information for modeling.

REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) REDACTED - Appendix A NSPI to Synapse GU&O Final Report Page 9 of 9 Figure 4: Updated Costs & Trends for New Resources Resource Type (2017) Capital Cost (2017) Fixed Percent Change ($/kW) Cost ($...

AI summary The document includes a cost trend analysis for energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, battery storage) showing significant cost reductions by 2030, and a letter from Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) responding to Synapse Energy Economics' draft report on a Generation Utilization and Optimization study under matter M08059.

h 28, 2018, page 1‐2. Page 4 of 9 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) April 18, 2018 Appendix B - NSPI Response to Synapse GU&O Technical Conference Page 5 of 9 D. Friis remain so, for the next decade and beyond. The “planning wind...

AI summary NSPI emphasizes the need for updated resource planning assumptions for the next IRP, including renewable/non-renewable generation costs, battery technologies, and DSM potential studies. It challenges Synapse's recommendation to retire a second unit, noting minimal NPV impact from forced retirements.

than one percent when compared to Scenario 1 of the analysis. This difference is within a reasonable range of model uncertainty relative to the no retirement plan, rather than cause for conclusion. Demand‐Side Management Synapse’s conclusi...

AI summary NS Power and Synapse discuss DSM study needs and natural gas supply challenges. NS Power advocates for a comprehensive DSM Potential Study before the next IRP, while Synapse highlights New England's greenhouse gas targets impacting winter gas availability and costs in the Maritimes.

cant reduction in natural gas use for energy generation, making its availability and price for winter use in the Maritimes potentially more economical than is currently considered. The future availability and security of natural gas supply...

AI summary NS Power highlights uncertainties in natural gas supply security in Nova Scotia, emphasizing the need for infrastructure improvements to support gas generation. Additional wind generation requires system upgrades for stability, with NS Power urging Synapse to address these in its Final Report. Both issues impact long-term planning and resource assumptions in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).

ol (AGC), and inertial response capability (which NS Power notes would add to the capital cost of the resources). Synapse should ensure this requirement is explicitly recognized in its Final Report. As well, additional wind on the system w...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSP) requests Synapse to address inertial response costs, declining wind capacity value with increased penetration, and consider demand response in modeling for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). Stakeholders are to review additional analyses before the Final Report.

ce indicated that this should be a focus of Synapse’s additional proposed runs. Synapse advised that it had not done this yet, but that this was something that could be considered. As Synapse noted during the Technical Conference, energy p...

AI summary The document discusses Synapse's proposed additional modelling runs focusing on demand-reduction DSM programming and electrification load assumptions. NS Power agrees with the Province to prioritize DSM over energy-targeted approaches and supports modelling electrification scenarios. E1 updates its DSM study for post-lighting world opportunities, which Synapse will incorporate into its analysis.

1 June 21, 2018 VIA EMAIL 28323 Ms. Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor Halifax, NS B3J 3S3 Dear Ms. Friis: Re: M08059 – Generation Utilization and Optimizat...

AI summary The Consumer Advocate highlights two key issues: (1) the significant benefits of aggressive DSM efforts, urging EfficiencyOne to maximize them, and (2) the need to reassess NSPI’s low valuation of wind capacity to improve planning accuracy. Both require ongoing monitoring and stakeholder input.

~ Blackburn Law June 21, 2018 VIA EMAIL Ms. Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor Halifax NS B3J 3S3 Dear Ms. Friis: Re: M08059 - Generation Utilization and Op...

AI summary The Small Business Advocate (SBA) highlights concerns about Nova Scotia Power's (NSPI) continued capital expenditures on fossil fuel generation, arguing that without analysis of economic obsolescence, small businesses may face unnecessary costs and stranded assets. The SBA emphasizes sector transformation, including renewable energy adoption and the Maritime Link transmission line, which may render older fossil fuel plants obsolete.

ose assumptions generally do not represent the lowest-cost planning path. Most importantly, the results show that NS Power should focus on identifying the best candidate for retirement after Lingan 2. Our recommendation to not conduct hear...

AI summary The analysis suggests that current assumptions may not reflect the lowest-cost planning path, emphasizing the need for NS Power to identify the next coal unit for retirement post-Lingan 2. The recommendation against hearings hinges on NS Power's support for the Final Report's recommendations, which will shape the next Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). Key factors like wind installations, demand response, and battery costs were not fully tested but should be considered in future planning.

capital costs incurred a range of 6.5% to 10.4% of total NPVRR costs in our main scenarios. It is critical to continue to assess the pattern of these costs and project future costs. 5. Establish requirements to allow increased levels of wi...

AI summary The text discusses capital costs (6.5–10.4% of NPVRR) and outlines requirements for integrating wind energy into NSPI's system, including transmission upgrades and intertie completion. It emphasizes joint dispatch coordination with Maritime Provinces and analysis of Tufts Cove thermal units for economic retirement modeling.