Topic:"Renewable Energy" in M11689

..................................................... 14 6 4.0 Discussion of Major Inputs ................................................................................................ 16 7 4.1 Historical Class Sales and Energy Data .......

AI summary The document outlines a regulatory proceeding's structure, detailing sections on historical energy data, weather patterns, economic factors, end-use intensity trends, price data, demand-side management, renewable energy integration, and sector-specific analyses for residential and commercial sectors.

2022 unexplained variance and 2 report on its findings in the 2024 Load Forecast Report. 3 2F 3 4 In accordance with the Board’s direction, NS Power revised and enhanced the 2024 Load 5 Forecast in the following manner: 6 7 • The EV foreca...

AI summary NS Power revised the 2024 Load Forecast Report per the Board's direction, updating EV forecasts, integrating hybrid electrification scenarios, summarizing Smart Grid and Demand Response projects, discussing economic inputs, hydrogen production impacts, and analyzing residential forecast variances.

Page 15 of 100 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 4.0 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR INPUTS 2 3 4.1 Historical Class Sales and Energy Data 4 5 The Load Forecast is developed using NS Power’s “billed” sale...

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report discusses the use of 'billed' sales data over 'accrued' sales for forecasting, noting annual alignment despite monthly discrepancies. Historical data spans 2014–2023 for residential/commercial forecasts and 2006–2023 for industrial. Peak demand data derives from hourly load records, with separate forecasts for large customers. The Renewable to Retail (RtR) market, established in 2016, is referenced as a contextual factor.

ion in Nova Scotia will continue to lag behind the national targets for several years, 5 with this gap narrowing as the federal annual sales targets increase to 100% in 2035.” 19 In 18F 6 the report two adoption forecasts are provided, a l...

AI summary The report discusses EV adoption in Nova Scotia, noting that current adoption rates will lag behind federal targets but may increase significantly if recent growth trends continue. Forecasts include low and high scenarios, with the 2025 forecast based on the high scenario and 2035 based on the low scenario.

Vehicle Avg Avg kW/vehicle Avg kWh/year Type km/year 20 19F on Peak LDV 17,427 3,485 0.9 MDV 22,779 8,205 1.6 HDV 62,888 113,890 7.3 3 4 The peak impact assumes that 70 percent of charging is managed (including direct control 5 through EV...

AI summary The text discusses the average energy consumption and peak demand contributions of different vehicle types, including LDV, MDV, and HDV, based on managed and unmanaged EV charging scenarios. It highlights the impact of managed charging, using technologies like DERMS, on reducing peak demand and electricity costs.

SGNS) Project. A final report was submitted to the 6 UARB in March 2024. 21 Through the project, 100 EV smart chargers were deployed under 20F 7 a ChargePoint pilot program where data collection and control of Electric Vehicle Supply 8 Equ...

AI summary The Smart Grid Nova Scotia (SGNS) Project deployed 100 EV smart chargers under a ChargePoint pilot and established an EV telemetry pilot with ev.energy, enabling the utility to influence charging times through curtailment events. A final report was submitted to the UARB in March 2024, and Appendix C discusses observed EV charging characteristics in Nova Scotia.

erage was 21 0.35 kW. 22 DATE: April 30, 2024 Page 41 of 100 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Solar Generation (PV) 2 3 Solar generation consists of two main types – distributed small-scale s...

AI summary The document discusses solar generation in Nova Scotia, distinguishing between distributed small-scale solar (under net metering) and larger-scale solar fed directly onto the grid. It notes that the 2023 Load Forecast predicted 2,268 new installations, but the actual number was 2,233, with a cumulative total of 8,221 installations (72 MW) by the end of 2023. The average installed capacity is approximately 8.3 kW.

r was 2,233, for a cumulative total of 8,221 (72 MW) by the end of 9 the year. 23 As of 2023, the average installed capacity is approximately 8.3 kW for 22F 10 residential customers and 28 kW for non-residential, and total annual net meter...

AI summary The document outlines the growth of solar installations in Nova Scotia, noting an average installed capacity of 8.3 kW for residential customers and 28 kW for non-residential. Total annual net metering solar generation is estimated at 78.8 GWh, with a capacity factor of 12.5 percent. Continued initiatives and rebates are expected to increase solar installations to 674 MW by 2034.

e Appendix A – 8 Impact Analysis Report of the Project Final Report. 25 Key results included demonstration 24F 9 of load following demand response modes in evening peak periods of 1 – 1.5kW over four- 10 hour events, shifting load to perio...

AI summary The report discusses the impact of demand response and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies in managing load and reducing peak demand. It highlights the demonstration of load following demand response during evening peaks and the potential of EV batteries to support demand charge management and lower emissions.

and EV forecasts. 25 DATE: April 30, 2024 Page 46 of 100 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 29: Residential End-Use Intensities 2 3 4 The intensity trends are similar to those in prior f...

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report discusses residential and commercial end-use intensities, noting trends such as increasing use of heat pumps, decreasing electric baseboard heating, and changes in cooling intensity. The report also highlights the impact of EV sales and PV generation on residential energy use.

2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 31: Historical and Projected General Commercial End-Use Intensity 2 (kWh/m2) 3 4 5 Supporting data for General commercial end-use intensities is included in Attachment 3. 6 7 For the 2024 Load Fo...

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report discusses the inclusion of small-scale solar and EV load in the Miscellaneous category and highlights projected growth in the commercial and industrial sectors due to electrification programs aimed at reducing carbon emissions.

2033 71.3 43.4 7.7 31.7 28.2 39.6 22.9 2034 69.1 44.0 7.8 30.7 28.6 38.4 23.2 3 4 The methodology used to determine the DSM coefficient only works for levels of DSM 5 that have been relatively consistent throughout the historical data set...

AI summary The text discusses the methodology for determining the DSM coefficient and its limitations, noting that it works best for consistent historical levels of DSM and may need revision if future forecasts change significantly. It also mentions a third-party application to the NSUARB for approval as a Licensed Retail Supplier under the RTR tariffs starting in 2025.

tion has been submitted by a third party to the NSUARB for approval as a 4 Licensed Retail Supplier (LRS) to provide service under the RTR tariffs starting in 2025. 31 30F 5 The service is forecast to produce 340 GWh of energy through wind...

AI summary A third-party application to become a Licensed Retail Supplier (LRS) under the RTR tariffs starting in 2025 has been submitted to the NSUARB. The service is expected to generate 340 GWh of energy through wind production by 2026, serving residential, commercial, and industrial customers. NS Power will provide top-up energy under the Energy Balancing Service tariff, and peak forecast remains unchanged.

) 2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 45: Historical and Forecast Annual Small General Sales 2 3 4 5 Please refer to Appendix B for tables with a detailed breakdown of the changes from 2024 6 to 2034. Total change between 2024 and...

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report indicates a 19% increase in small general sales from 2024 to 2034. General class load is expected to decrease by 0.1% annually over the 10-year period, influenced by lower EV load, hybrid heating scenarios, and DSM programs. A drop in sales in 2026 is attributed to shifting to the RTR market and increased solar generation.

2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 60: Weather-Normalized Firm Peak (including DR) 2 3 4 5 Figure 61 below shows the breakdown of the peak forecast by the various components. 6 7 Figure 61: Peak Contribution Components (MW) 8 Mode...

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report provides a detailed breakdown of peak load contributions, including modeled peak, residential heating, electric vehicle (EV) usage, demand response (DR), hybrid loads, commercial and industrial (C&I) demand, large customer contributions, demand-side management (DSM), and system peak. It compares scenarios with and without EV mitigation.

CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 71: System Peak Sensitivity 2 3 4 This analysis provides a potential range of outcomes for the 2024 Load Forecast. Energy 5 is most sensitive to economics over t...

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report outlines the sensitivity of energy demand to economic and temperature factors, highlighting the variability of peak load. It compares the 2023 and 2024 forecasts with the Evergreen IRP cases, noting differences in load served through the RTR market and initial peak expectations. The report also mentions future policy changes related to decarbonization targets.

sidential model (including heat pump programs inside the SAE model). Adjustments done outside the regression include estimates for other commercial and industrial growth programs, PV, EV, RTR and DSM. Historically the XHeat, XCool and XOth...

AI summary The document discusses the Small General Load model used in the Load Forecast Report, including adjustments for EV, solar, RTR, and DSM. It provides load data for 2024 and 2034, showing changes in load and customer counts, and explains how the load from the regression model is calculated based on average use and customer numbers.

Forecast DSM (base case) -143 -26 -1483 -266 Solar PV -55 0 -681 0 EV (current forecast) 18 6 566 156 Other Possible Scenarios EV (current forecast, no peak 18 10 566 281 mitigation) 2 Hydrogen Production 0 0 824 130 Facilities (firm suppl...

AI summary The document provides a forecast of demand-side management (DSM) and solar PV impacts on energy load, along with scenarios for electric vehicle (EV) adoption, hydrogen production, and battery storage. It also notes the evaluation of potential impacts from proposed hydrogen facilities on the Net System Requirement and System Peak.

61 246 9 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 10 of 18 Small Scale Solar • Small scale solar uptake continues to be strong: as of 2023 approximately 71.7 MW of solar generation has been inst...

AI summary The document discusses the strong uptake of small-scale solar installations in Nova Scotia, with 71.7 MW installed as of 2023, and forecasts increased solar penetration due to legislative changes and rebate programs. It also outlines forecast changes for residential and commercial load, noting the impact of warmer weather, electric heating, and the introduction of Renewable to Retail (RTR).

1 (d) Please identify any market trends that NS Power anticipates will help Nova Scotia 2 residential and commercial customers transition energy end use from fossil fuels to 3 electricity and explain how the impacts are incorporated into t...

AI summary NS Power is asked to identify market trends accelerating electrification, explain their impact on the 2024 Load Forecast, and assess gaps between current measures and policy goals. The response outlines an E3 hybrid scenario assuming widespread heat pump adoption by 2050 and notes DSM program impacts are modeled at the class level, not end-use.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to CA Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 (c) No specific programs are included in the model; it is assumed that current electrification 2 trends will continue in the near term a...

AI summary NSPI's 2024 Load Forecast Report assumes continued electrification trends aligned with net-zero targets, relying on government policies and market forces. It notes no specific programs are modeled, acknowledges potential for market interventions to accelerate electrification, and states NSPI supports electrification initiatives where feasible.

rification, (iii) commercial heating 24 electrification, and (iv) solar generation. 25 26 Response IR-7: 27 28 (a) NS Power does not track this data by the categories listed. 29 Date Filed: June 19, 2024 NSPI (CA) IR-7 Page 1 of 2 2024 Loa...

AI summary NSPI (Nova Scotia Power Inc.) responds to an information request (IR-7) regarding data tracking for residential and commercial electrification, and solar generation, stating it does not track data by these categories. The response relates to the 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689).

1 (b) Distribution software is not used to prepare the load forecast. Updates to the distribution 2 planning process are being discussed in the ongoing Cost of Service Study. AMI data is 3 currently being used in CYME distribution analysis...

AI summary The text discusses load forecasting practices, noting that AMI data is used in CYME software for capacity planning and generator impact studies, while pilot projects like Smart Grid Nova Scotia are not typically required for load forecasting. Electrification of heating and EVs is modeled, but more detailed data is needed for granular forecasts. Solar generation is already included in the forecast.

granular forecasting would require more detailed end use data specific to Nova 27 Scotia. 28 29 (iv) Solar generation is already modeled in the forecast. Date Filed: June 19, 2024 NSPI (CA) IR-7 Page 2 of 2 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUAR...

AI summary NSPI highlights the need for detailed end-use data to improve forecasting accuracy for Nova Scotia's energy needs, noting that solar generation is already incorporated into current forecasts. The response is part of NSPI's submission to the NSUARB's 2024 Load Forecast Report (M11689).

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to EOne Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-1: 2 3 Reference: NS Power 2024 Load Forecast, Page 31, Line(s) 11-18 4 5 As part of the updates for 2024, the E3 scenario...

AI summary NSPI's response to EOne's request clarifies that in the 2024 Load Forecast hybrid scenario, all customers adopting heat pumps retain non-electric backup heating systems. This aligns with Nova Scotia Power's 2023 Electrification Strategy, which emphasizes hybrid systems to mitigate winter peak impacts.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to EOne Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-5: 2 3 Reference: NS Power 2024 Load Forecast, Figure 27, Page 43 4 5 (a) Please provide a breakdown of Figure 27 (annual n...

AI summary NSPI responds to EOne's information requests regarding the 2024 Load Forecast, confirming Figure 27 includes commercial/industrial solar estimates and updating EV forecasts based on Nova Scotia's alignment with federal ZEV adoption targets. The response highlights reliance on Synapse data and acknowledges potential lag in provincial EV sales compared to national targets.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to NSUARB Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-13: 2 3 On page 39, the report discusses the peak impact assumptions for charging. NS Power 4 identifies that the model a...

AI summary NSPI responds to NSUARB's queries on EV charging assumptions (70% managed, 30% unmanaged) and PV installation revisions. The managed charging ratio is based on E3's experience, while PV projections were revised to reflect new commercial net metering legislation allowing up to 1,000 kW for commercial customers.

V installs in accordance with the recent establishment of the commercial net 11 metering program based on corresponding legislation (installation of up to 1,000 kW for 12 commercial customers). Date Filed: June 19, 2024 NSPI (NSUARB) IR-14...

AI summary NSPI responds to NSUARB's inquiry about revisions in end-use intensity data for commercial customers, attributing changes to updated EIA inputs. The response notes a lack of access to underlying EIA data drivers. The text also references the commercial net metering program and the 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689).

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to NSUARB Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-22: 2 3 Section 9.0 reviews the Net System Requirement (NSR). Please explain the specific factors 4 that result in a decr...

AI summary NSPI responds to NSUARB's IR-22 and IR-23 requests regarding the 2024 Load Forecast Report. NSPI attributes NSR decreases in 2025-2026 to RTR market shifts and factors like EV adoption, while linking the 139 GWh increase in the 'Other' category to the Energy Balancing Service (EBS) tariff.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to NSUARB Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-26: 2 3 In Appendix D, NS Power’s sensitivity analysis incorporates total GWh and Peak MW of 4 firm supply for two hydrog...

AI summary NSUARB requested clarification on NSPI's 2024 Load Forecast Report regarding hydrogen facilities. NSPI explained only two facilities were included due to insufficient details from others, with Appendix D providing preliminary load impact assessments. The response highlights forecasting methodology and load management considerations for hydrogen projects.

re not explicitly included in the forecast. 19 20 (c) SGNS is a pilot project used to evaluate specific scenarios related to grid control and is not 21 a direct input to the forecast. Date Filed: June 19, 2024 NSPI (SBA) IR-2 Page 1 of 1 2...

AI summary NSPI responded to an information request regarding probabilistic analysis of DER penetration in the 2024 Load Forecast Report, stating no such analysis was conducted but referencing a 2022 Evergreen IRP sensitivity study with high DER scenarios. The response directs to the 2022 IRP document library for details.

1 (g) Refer to Figure 18 and 19. 2 3 (i) Please provide NSPI’s own commercial space heating saturation forecasts by 4 technology and fuel type, reflecting NSPI’s own commercial electric heating 5 share provided in Figure 19. For heat pumps...

AI summary The text requests detailed information on NSPI's commercial space heating saturation forecasts by technology and fuel type, including heat pump usage breakdowns. It also asks for clarification on the models used for peak load forecasting and the definition of the 'hybrid scenario'. Specific data on peak load impacts per customer type and technology are requested.

Nova Scotia are likely 21 to lag those of larger markets. The Dunsky report 1 cited in the forecast provides the 0F 22 following on page 18: 23 24 From this starting point, we produced a low adoption in NS scenario (Figure 25 5) that repre...

AI summary The document discusses the likelihood of Nova Scotia lagging behind larger markets in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption, based on the Dunsky report. It outlines a low adoption scenario for Nova Scotia, which could prevent the province from meeting its 30% ZEV sales target by 2030 if certain factors, such as federal ZEV regulations and provincial action, are not addressed.

1 Request IR-24: 2 3 General Service (Section 6.2). 4 5 (a) Please explain and quantify the specific reasons for the differences from the previous 6 forecast. 7 8 (b) Please quantity separately and explain the derivation of the effects for...

AI summary The request seeks explanations for differences in load forecasts between 2023 and 2024, focusing on factors such as EV loads, space heating, DSM programs, and solar generation. The response notes a decrease in general service class load, a larger drop attributed to increased solar generation, and a reduced impact from EVs compared to previous forecasts.

a consequence of increased forecast solar penetration, owing to 24 continued strong uptake of small-scale solar installations and changes to legislation which 25 will likely result in more interest from commercial customers. Increased sola...

AI summary The text discusses increased forecast solar penetration due to strong uptake of small-scale solar installations and legislative changes, which may lead to greater interest from commercial customers. This is elaborated in Section 4.4 of the report.

as 28 revised accordingly. Date Filed: June 19, 2024 NSPI (Synapse) IR-28 Page 1 of 1 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 R...

AI summary The document provides the 2024 Load Forecast Report for municipal loads, including total estimated load in GWh and peak demand in MW for the years 2024 through 2034. It notes that the load served by NS Power is expected to decrease in 2025 due to customers switching to third-party suppliers through the OATT and BUTU programs.

Customer count and housing New housing usage NSPI and other Programs Before future DSM Year SAE model Historical Increment Cumlative New Cumulative Forecasted New New Structural Forecast RTR Hybrid Electric Solar PV Total Total SAE + Regre...

AI summary The text presents data on customer counts, housing usage, and energy consumption from 2014 to 2016, including information on new housing, structural changes, and energy programs such as Solar PV and Electric Vehicles. The data includes forecasted and historical usage figures.

† Monthly HDD † Monthly CDD † Economics REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-45 Attachment 2 has been filed electronically. REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) REDACTED 2024 Load Forecast...

AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report includes projections for energy demand, peak load, and the impact of demand-side management (DSM), solar PV, and electric vehicle (EV) adoption. It also outlines possible scenarios for hydrogen production, battery storage, and the effects of weather and economics on load forecasts.

2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-46: 2 3 Nova Scotia Power Electrification Support Overview by E3 4 5 (a) Please provide any supplemental materials produ...

AI summary NSPI provided responses to Synapse Information Requests regarding the 2024 Load Forecast Report. The responses included references to heat pump and EV load shapes, as well as modeling based on federal sales targets and net zero emission goals.

increasing 14 maximum average temperature trend forecast, a cloud cover forecast, and a forecast of wind 15 gusts over 80 km/hr. 16 B. Hybrid scenario for electrification 17 Q: Please summarize the hybrid scenario for electrification of bu...

AI summary NS Power's hybrid electrification scenario for building heat reduces 2033 peak demand by 257 MW through non-electric backup systems during peak periods. However, no sensitivity analysis was conducted for the 2024 report, and increased residential heating intensities have not prompted an updated evaluation of the hybrid scenario.

7 1 40 percent increase in residential heating intensities (discussed in Section III) has not led 2 to any updated evaluation of the hybrid scenario for electrification of heat.

AI summary A 40% increase in residential heating intensities (referenced in Section III) has not prompted an updated evaluation of the hybrid scenario for electrification of heat, highlighting a potential gap in addressing heating demands through electrification strategies.

3 Q: What are the implications of this finding for NS Power’s decarbonization 4 strategy? 5 A: A key challenge to NS Power’s decarbonization strategy is meeting peak winter heating load. 6 In response, NS Power began studying the hybrid pe...

AI summary NS Power faces challenges in meeting peak winter heating demand as part of its decarbonization strategy. It is pursuing strategies like time-varying rates, battery storage, gas-fueled peaking units, and transmission upgrades. Customer-sited resources could reduce system peak demand by 257 MW, though infrastructure adjustments would be required for large-scale adoption.

1, 2024 Page 9 1 timeline involved in implementing the recommendations from such a study, it would seem 2 that time would be of the essence. 3 Q: Does this failure to address the winter peak heating issue place customers at 4 risk? 5 A: Ye...

AI summary Failure to address winter peak heating risks customers with rising costs and system reliability challenges due to federal carbon policies pushing electric heat adoption. NS Power's load forecasts may not account for rapid shifts to electric heating, while policy constraints limit backup heating options for customers.

Power’s commercial load forecast does not include an estimate of the number of new customers. 34 Exhibit N-6, Synapse RIR-5, Attachment 1. 35 Exhibit N-26, NSUARB Undertaking U-5. Evidence of John D. Wilson  Matter No. M11689  July 11, 2...

AI summary NS Power's load forecast excludes new customer growth and unmetered services, leading to discrepancies with distribution planning forecasts. The testimony highlights the need to align forecasts with electrification strategies and account for housing supply initiatives.

ity doesn’t become a bottleneck to electrification,” and 17 further to “Fully incorporate electrification strategy findings … into utility planning 18 models.”40 More specifically, 19 E3 recommends that Nova Scotia Power proactively identi...

AI summary The text criticizes Nova Scotia Power for not adequately incorporating electrification impacts into its distribution planning, leading to oversized transformers and underestimation of new residential customers. It highlights a contradiction between distribution planning forecasts and resource planning activities regarding electrification load from EVs and home electrification.

JOHN D. WILSON Vice President Grid Strategies, LLC SUMMARY OF PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE 2023– Vice President, Grid Strategies, LLC. Provides research, technical assistance, Present and expert testimony on electric- and gas-utility planning,...

AI summary John D. Wilson's professional experience includes roles in utility regulation, energy efficiency, and renewable resource evaluation. He has provided expert testimony on rate design, cost recovery mechanisms, and resource planning for electric utilities, as well as directed regulatory policy and litigation activities related to clean energy and air quality.

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 2 “Smoke in the Water: Air Pollution Hidden in the Water Vapor from Cooling Towers – Agencies Fail to Enforce Against Polluters,” Galveston Houston Association for Smog Prevention, February 2004....

AI summary The text lists publications by the Galveston Houston Association for Smog Prevention and Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE), addressing air pollution, toxic emissions, mercury contamination, and renewable energy initiatives in the U.S. Southeast. These reports highlight environmental compliance challenges and energy efficiency programs.

ncy Program Impacts and Policies in the Southeast,” Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, May 2009. “Recommendations for Feed-In-Tariff Program Implementation In The Southeast Region To Accelerate Renewable Energy Development,” Southern Alli...

AI summary The text lists Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE) publications from 2009–2015 addressing renewable energy programs, policy implementation, and compatibility with reliable service in the Southeast. Reports focus on feed-in-tariff programs, renewable energy standards, and clean power plan compliance.

st,” Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, November 2014. “Cleaner Energy for Southern Company: Finding a Low Cost Path to Clean Power Plan Compliance,” Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, July 2015.

AI summary Two reports by the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE) from 2014 and 2015 discuss compliance with a 'Low Cost Path to Clean Power Plan' for Southern Company. The documents analyze strategies for achieving cleaner energy goals through cost-effective measures.

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 3 “Analysis of Solar Capacity Equivalent Values for Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress Systems,” prepared for and filed by Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, Natural Resources Defense...

AI summary The text lists publications and reports by Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE) and collaborators on solar capacity, energy efficiency, decarbonization, and integrated resource planning in the Southeastern U.S. and Nova Scotia. Key references include a 2021 review of Nova Scotia Power’s Integrated Resource Plan for the Nova Scotia Consumer Advocate.

i Power Company 2024 Integrated Resource Plan,” with Michael Goggin, Grid Strategies LLC, prepared for Southern Renewable Energy Association, for submission in MPSC Docket No. 2019-UA-231, June 2024. SELECTED PRESENTATIONS “Clean Energy So...

AI summary The text lists presentations by Michael Goggin on energy efficiency, renewable energy, and integrated resource planning, involving organizations like Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE) and Grid Strategies LLC. Key topics include energy efficiency, renewable energy, and IRP, with a cross-reference to MPSC Docket No. 2019-UA-231.

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 5 “Views on TVA EE Modeling Approach,” presentation with Natalie Mims to Tennessee Valley Authority’s Evaluating Energy Efficiency in Utility Resource Planning Meeting, February 10, 2015. “The Cle...

AI summary John D. Wilson of Grid Strategies, LLC has presented on energy efficiency modeling, renewable energy reliability, carbon markets, solar capacity value, power plant procurement, resource adequacy, and energy transitions at various conferences and forums between 2015 and 2024.

at Power Demand is Over,” 2024 The Energy Authority Energy Symposium, March 2024. “Energy Transition Challenges & Opportunities,” Panel Member, 2024 The Energy Authority Energy Symposium, March 2024. EXPERT TESTIMONY 2008 South Carolina PS...

AI summary The text references participation in the 2024 Energy Authority Energy Symposium and an expert testimony from 2008 in a South Carolina PSC proceeding. The testimony was on behalf of environmental organizations, including the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE).

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 7 including resource mix, sensitivity analysis, alternative supply and demand side options, cost escalation, uncertainty of nuclear and economic impact modeling. 2013 Georgia PSC Docket No. 36498,...

AI summary John D. Wilson of Grid Strategies, LLC provided expert testimony in multiple U.S. regulatory proceedings from 2013–2016, focusing on energy efficiency adequacy, renewable energy integration, and system reliability. Testimonies addressed Georgia Power’s integrated resource plans, South Carolina’s capacity needs, and Florida’s reserve margin requirements, often representing the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy.

of renewable energy in Georgia Power’s 2016 integrated resource plan, including portfolio diversity, operational and implementation risk, analysis of project-specific costs and benefits (including location and technology considerations), a...

AI summary The text details testimony in Georgia Power's 2016 and 2019 integrated resource plans (IRP) and demand-side management (DSM) plans, focusing on renewable energy adequacy, plant retirements, and procurement processes. In Nova Scotia, testimony addressed the Smart Grid project's cost classification, decommissioning, and capital expenditure plans, including hydroelectric decommissioning considerations.

r Advocate. Reasonableness of biomass fuel costs. Shortfall in expected customer benefits from Maritime Link transmission project. Regional joint dispatch. Accounting issues related to coal supplies and wind farm tax credits. Impact of dem...

AI summary The text discusses biomass fuel cost reasonableness, shortfall in benefits from the Maritime Link project, regional dispatch accounting issues, and demand response impacts on fuel costs. It references Nova Scotia UARB Matters M11009 and M11017, along with Kentucky PSC Case 2022-00402, addressing fossil fuel unit retirements and regulatory processes for capital expenditures.

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 12 of utility replacement portfolio and membership in PJM. Definition of dispatchable electric generating capacity. Use of dispatch practices including full flexibility operating mode for renewabl...

AI summary John D. Wilson of Grid Strategies, LLC provides testimony in Nova Scotia UARB matters and Washington UTC dockets, addressing load forecasting methods, DSM adjustments, capital expenditure plans, and smart grid initiatives. Topics include electrification forecasts, resource adequacy, and reliability investments.

LYSIS...................................................................................... 30 5. QUESTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................. 32 APPENDIX A. QUESTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power, Inc. (NSPI) submitted a 2024 load forecast report showing reduced EV growth projections and increased Renewables to Retail (RTR) market forecasts, leading to more conservative energy and peak load growth estimates compared to prior years. Synapse Energy Economics notes improvements in expository quality and a moderation in growth rates post-2024, driven by EV adoption, electric heating, and customer growth.

2034 Source: Synapse from Figure 1 in NSPI’s 2024 Load Forecast Report (2024 Load Forecast) and responses to Synapse IR-1 The current forecast predicts a 205 GWh increase in the net system requirement (NSR) from 2024 to 2034, which is equa...

AI summary The forecast predicts a 205 GWh increase in net system requirement (NSR) from 2024 to 2034, driven by electrification, cooling demand, new customers, and EVs. Offsetting factors include rooftop solar, demand-side management (DSM), Renewables to Retail (RTR) sales, and hybrid heating assumptions.

-57 -3 -61 -699 2034 Forecast 5,298 3,151 2,258 213 775 11,695 Source: Figure 55 from 2024 Load Forecast The historical trend for firm peak demand shows a general increase, as shown in Figure 2 below. We plotted the actual rather than the...

AI summary The 2024 load forecast indicates a 14.6% increase in firm peak demand (323 MW), primarily driven by electrification. Electric vehicles (EVs) are identified as the largest contributor to this growth. The forecast shows slower growth rates post-2024, with historical trends reflecting increasing demand. Adjustments to modeled values from SAE are detailed in Figure 61/Table 2.

arious effects, we reproduce below a table from Page 6 of NSPI’s Appendix B. The first column shows the SAE regression model results, and the other columns reflect various adjustments to the forecast. Table 5. Residential load: post regres...

AI summary The document presents a table from NSPI's Appendix B showing residential load forecasts, highlighting the impact of EVs, new customers, and electrification (e.g., heat pumps) on consumption growth. Existing customer load is projected to rise 2.3% due to electrification, with DSM and RTR adjustments influencing outcomes.

nd response for water heaters has concluded.24 NSPI indicates that the data collected from these pilots will be used to inform future load forecasts. While Synapse 30 2024 Load Forecast, page 35. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Evidence Reg...

AI summary The document discusses NSPI's 2024 load forecast, noting the exclusion of heat pump water heaters despite their potential energy savings and peak load reduction. Synapse Energy Economics recommends modeling them as a separate end-use technology due to projected electric water heater growth and energy efficiency benefits. Electric vehicles are also identified as a separate load growth area.

as penetration increases. These load management strategies should be reflected in the next load forecast with greater detail, with all assumptions supported empirically to the maximum extent possible. Solar generation As noted previously,...

AI summary The document discusses the impact of increasing solar generation on load forecasting, noting that while small-scale solar has limited impact on winter peak loads, it may affect non-winter monthly peaks. NSPI has updated its coincidence factors based on data from community solar farms and forecasts a modest reduction in residential and commercial energy load.

ohort represents approximately three-quarters of the commercial load. We reviewed the statistical models in NSPI’s Appendix B and found them satisfactory. NSPI’s Report has also provided specifics of Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Evidence...

AI summary The 2024 load forecast projects a 0.8% decrease in total load between 2024 and 2034, primarily due to hybrid heating, commercial sales shifting to RTR, reduced EV sales, and increased distributed solar. The forecast also highlights greater proportional increases in Small General Service average loads.

to Synapse IR-22. 53 Note that the reported DSM impacts are in addition to DSM effects embedded in the SAE model itself. Therefore, the actual savings from DSM programs are significantly greater. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Evidence Reg...

AI summary The document discusses the impact of DSM programs on electricity demand, highlighting that DSM effects are in addition to those embedded in the SAE model. It also outlines projected changes in small general service sales, including the influence of factors like renewable energy, electric vehicles, and solar. NSPI notes the long-term impact of the pandemic on commercial sales and revised forecasts for large general service loads.

ervice customers? Are they implementing DSM measures to reduce load? Adding solar generation? Entering into RTR contracts? Might all this reduce their loads to some degree? (page 25) Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Evidence Regarding Nova S...

AI summary The text presents a series of questions and requests directed at Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) regarding load forecasting, demand-side management (DSM) program savings, industrial electrification, real-time rates, and the impacts of renewable energy contracts (RTR) and technologies like heat pumps and thermal storage.

asis for the planning and 4 overall operating activities to serve customer load.” 16 Despite year-over-year variances from load 15F 5 forecast to load actuals, the load forecast continues to provide a reliable basis on which to plan and 6...

AI summary The document discusses the reliability of load forecasts despite variances, emphasizing sensitivity analysis over scenario planning. It requests NSPI to assess solar and DSM impacts on the Large General Service forecast and industrial electrification effects. NS Power notes existing DSM inclusion and solar impact assumptions, with future updates if projects are identified.

1 impacts due to heating and transportation electrification. As part of its 2024/25 Time-Varying 2 Pricing (TVP) Tariff Application, filed July 31, 2024 under M11822, NS Power has proposed to 3 establish an ongoing pricing innovation proce...

AI summary NS Power proposes an ongoing pricing innovation process for Time-Varying Pricing (TVP) tariffs under M11822, including stakeholder collaboration and analysis of demand response programs. Recommendation 17 urges NSPI to analyze portfolio ELCC values for demand response, with NS Power referencing its 10-Year System Outlook (M11764) and collaboration with E1.

1 necessarily representative of a typical peak. The 2024 Load Forecast report cites SGNS results 2 that indicate managed peak values of 0.35 kW/vehicle, with unmanaged averages across all winter 3 months of 0.2-0.6 kW/vehicle and single hi...

AI summary The text discusses load forecasting for electric vehicles based on SGNS project data, noting wide variation in peak load values and the need for revised assumptions in NS Power's load forecasts. It also references a recent NSUARB decision regarding an ATO application and highlights factors like population and economic growth affecting cost increases.

as well as customer specific forecasts for large customers. The process produces the Net System Requirement (NSR) forecast, Document: 316220 -2- which is the energy forecast for the province. The second method is the DSM adjustment. The DS...

AI summary NS Power's 2024 Load Forecast includes revisions to customer growth, adjusted energy usage post-2023 weather events, slower EV adoption, hybrid heating scenarios, and DSM initiatives. Forecasts show 0.19% annual NSR growth (2025-2034) and 1.4% average system peak increases, with long-term growth tempered by efficiency and solar adoption.

-5- load by 943 watts in winter 2022-23; therefore, reaching its target is unlikely. Second, Mr. Willson suggested that the EV charging forecast should use 0.45 kW/vehicle instead of 0.9 kW/vehicle. Mr. Wilson compared the 2024 Load Foreca...

AI summary The document discusses discrepancies in NS Power's load forecasts, including underestimation of EV charging demand and customer growth. Mr. Wilson highlights inconsistencies between load forecasts and distribution planning, urging alignment with electrification strategies. The SBA recommends incorporating smart grid data and electrification impacts, while Synapse notes areas for improving the load forecast model.

Forecast Report. Synapse Synapse noted NS Power’s continued improvement to the Load Forecast Report. However, Synapse also remarked on several aspects, suggesting revisions. These included: • modeling heat-pump-based hot water heating, exa...

AI summary Synapse recommends revisions to NS Power’s Load Forecast Report, emphasizing improved modeling of heat pumps, solar impacts, EV adoption, DSM adjustments, and peak forecasting methodology. Key areas include hybrid heating scenarios, electrification effects, and validating new home construction as a proxy for customer growth.

efault-source/irp/electrification-strategy-report-february-2-2024- engagement-session-material.pdf?sfvrsn=4d233583_1 -6- Rebuttal Evidence - NS Power NS Power addressed the concerns raised by the intervenors in its Rebuttal evidence. As a...

AI summary NS Power rebutted intervenor concerns by refusing to include pilot program data in forecasts until programs are comprehensive, committing to use AMI data for accuracy, and citing Bill 228's removal of EOne's joint DSM filing requirement. NS Power agreed to monitor EV adoption, solar generation, and hybrid heating models while shifting DSM planning responsibility to EOne.

NS Power agreed to monitor several of the model’s inputs, including EV adoption, solar generation, battery storage deployment and bi-directional EV charging, and the associated load impacts for each. NS Power agreed to review pricing innov...

AI summary NS Power agreed to monitor EV adoption, solar generation, battery storage, and bi-directional EV charging impacts. It will review pricing innovations, update DSM Program savings, and analyze demand response capacity value. NS Power disagreed with removing TVP benefits from peak forecasts and adding certain weather metrics to the SAE model, but agreed to study temperature and cloud cover trends.

onsumption and wind speed is factored into the peak forecast model. However, NS Power did agree with the recommendation to investigate trends in increasing maximum average temperature and cloud cover. The CA suggested NS Power revise the l...

AI summary NS Power agreed to reassess the work-from-home variable in load forecasts but rejected Synapse's recommendations to revise assumptions on customer growth, electrification, and EV adoption, citing lack of data and scope concerns. It also opposed the need for an interim report on the 2025 ACE Plan, referencing the 2024 ACE Plan decision.

Document: 313458 Date Filed: 05/28/24 UARB Page 3 1 Request IR-8: 2 Figure 16: Economic Forecast Comparison employs data from three of Canada’s Big 5 banks and 3 National Bank. Board Staff find this table provides a useful comparison again...

AI summary The document contains four requests (IR-8 to IR-11) questioning NS Power's economic forecast data sources, adoption rates for emission goals, heat pump saturation assumptions, and verification of installation figures. It seeks clarification on omitted bank data, employment projection adjustments, uptake rate timelines, and evidence for 100% heat pump saturation by 2050.

Document: 313458 Date Filed: 05/28/24 UARB Page 4 1 c) The report notes that there are increased heating hours from more customers working 2 from home. Has there been an increase in cooling intensity to reflect greater work from 3 home emp...

AI summary The document contains a series of requests from Board Staff to NS Power, seeking clarifications on load forecasting assumptions, electrification projections, and energy efficiency data. Topics include heating/cooling intensity, water heater saturation, EV charging assumptions, PV impact revisions, and commercial/industrial electrification forecasts.

Document: 313458 Date Filed: 05/28/24 UARB Page 6 1 Request IR-21: 2 Section 6.0 examines the Commercial Sector and indicates that a detailed breakdown of the two 3 commercial SAE models are in Attachments 6 and 7. Page 65 explains that th...

AI summary The document contains five requests (IR-21 to IR-25) questioning NS Power's modeling assumptions, including outdated economic data, NSR trends, RTR impact, heating load forecasts, and data discrepancies. Requests focus on model accuracy, forecasting methodology, and alignment with current economic and energy trends.

unmanaged scenario is 1.6 kW/vehicle. 23 1. Please provide E3’s average peak impact estimate per vehicle for the managed 24 charging scenario. 25 2. Please explain how E3 developed the peak load impacts for the managed and 26 unmanaged cha...

AI summary The text contains requests for E3 to clarify their analysis of EV charging scenarios (managed vs. unmanaged) and solar PV generation impacts. Questions focus on peak load estimates, methodology for calculating impacts, and supporting data for PV capacity factors and summer peak effects.

for the PV 33 installations used in the forecast. 34 b. Have you calculated the impacts of PV on summer peaks over the forecast period? If so, 35 please provide those results.

AI summary The text presents a question regarding the calculation of impacts from photovoltaic (PV) installations on summer peak electricity demand over the forecast period, requesting detailed results if such calculations have been performed.

Date Filed: May 29, 2024 Synapse (NSPI) Page 14 of 24 1 b. Please identify and quantify in detail the specific components in the forecast model that 2 are causing the increase starting about 2025 as shown in Figure 45. 3 4 5 6 7 Request IR...

AI summary The document contains regulatory requests (IR-24 to IR-26) seeking detailed explanations for forecast discrepancies in energy demand, including EV load impacts, DSM program effects, and solar generation growth. Requests focus on quantifying changes in model variables (XHeat, XCool, XOther) and differences between current and previous forecasts for General Service, Large General Service, and Small Industrial categories.

Date Filed: May 29, 2024 Synapse (NSPI) Page 19 of 24 1 i. Please note any changes in the model specification relative to the 2023 forecast 2 residential model, and please further quantify the impact of any such changes in 3 specification...

AI summary The document contains requests for detailed information and data related to residential and general service models, including statistical parameters, spreadsheet formats, and calculations for various variables and programs such as PV, EV, and DSM. The requests are part of a regulatory proceeding.

ness Advocate 27 Phone (902) 835-8544 28 [email protected] 29 30 Issued at Bedford, Nova Scotia on this 29th day of May 2024 31 32 Page 1 of 3 1 REQUEST IR-01: 2 Please provide workpapers, with formula intact, in Excel format, for...

AI summary The document contains five information requests related to load forecasting, DER penetration analysis, energy efficiency impacts, and reactive power studies. Requests include clarifications on SGNS project asset usage, probabilistic DER scenarios, energy efficiency under varying DER penetration, and reactive power analysis.

Date Filed: May 29, 2024 CA (NS Power) Page 2 of 6 1 data, information, or analysis is required to incorporate the market trends into future 2 reports. 3 4 (e) Does NS Power believe that additional market interventions are necessary to ach...

AI summary The Commission requests NS Power to address electrification strategies, market interventions, and alignment with policy goals. It references a Board Decision (M11307) requiring third-party studies on electrification profiles and emphasizes uninterrupted progress on the Evergreen IRP process ahead of the 2030 deadline.

as well as customer specific forecasts for large customers. The process produces the Net System Requirement (NSR) forecast, Document: 316220 -2- which is the energy forecast for the province. The second method is the DSM adjustment. The DS...

AI summary NS Power updated the 2024 Load Forecast with revisions to customer growth, weather adjustments, EV adoption rates, hybrid heating scenarios, and DSM program impacts. Forecasts show increased near-term electricity consumption but reduced demand from slower EV adoption. Long-term NSR growth is expected to be offset by DSM initiatives and solar installations, with a 0.19% annual NSR increase projected between 2025-2034.

ar- term growth of system peak is attributed to increased electrification of heating, whereas the long- term growth has been reduced due to lower EV sales and the adoption of hybrid heating scenarios. In the 2034 forecast, NSR is 5.1% (564...

AI summary The document analyzes NS Power's load forecasting discrepancies, noting short-term peak demand growth from heating electrification but long-term reductions due to lower EV sales and hybrid heating adoption. Forecasts for 2034 show 5.1% higher NSR and 11.1% higher system peak than 2023 actuals. The Board has raised concerns about forecasting accuracy and consistency, referencing past decisions like M11108.

rgely the same but is now enhanced by AMI load factors. The Board considers the addition of AMI as an improvement to the model and directs NS Power to continue to add AMI data into the forecast model. NS Power applied E3’s scenario for hyb...

AI summary The Board approves NS Power's updated load forecasting methods, including AMI data integration, hybrid electrification scenarios, and adjusted EV adoption estimates. These changes align with recent strategies and pilot program outcomes, enhancing forecast accuracy and robustness.

-5- load by 943 watts in winter 2022-23; therefore, reaching its target is unlikely. Second, Mr. Willson suggested that the EV charging forecast should use 0.45 kW/vehicle instead of 0.9 kW/vehicle. Mr. Wilson compared the 2024 Load Foreca...

AI summary The text discusses discrepancies in NS Power's load forecasts, electrification strategy recommendations, and stakeholder feedback. Mr. Wilson highlights inconsistencies in customer growth assumptions and electrification planning, while the SBA urges incorporating Smart Grid Nova Scotia findings and addressing net-zero building codes. Synapse acknowledges improvements but suggests revisions to the Load Forecast Report.

Forecast Report. Synapse Synapse noted NS Power’s continued improvement to the Load Forecast Report. However, Synapse also remarked on several aspects, suggesting revisions. These included: • modeling heat-pump-based hot water heating, exa...

AI summary Synapse acknowledges NS Power's improvements to the Load Forecast Report but recommends revisions to better model heat pumps, DSM adjustments, solar impacts, EV adoption, electrification effects, and peak forecasting methodologies. Key areas include hybrid heating models, sensitivity analyses, and validating new home construction as a proxy for customer growth.

onsumption and wind speed is factored into the peak forecast model. However, NS Power did agree with the recommendation to investigate trends in increasing maximum average temperature and cloud cover. The CA suggested NS Power revise the l...

AI summary The CA urged NS Power to align load and distribution forecasts with updated assumptions on customer growth and electrification, requesting an interim report by 2024. NS Power rejected Synapse's recommendations to include EV adoption, solar, and RtR impacts in forecasts, citing scope limitations and resource concerns. NS Power agreed to reassess the work-from-home variable but disagreed with revising pandemic-related modeling due to data gaps.